Monday 9/16/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:13 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 16, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

3-Wattsup Sunshine A (6-1)-This is a grinder who should be a solid price. Did take a picture leaving from this post the last time in versus similar. Gets a positive driver change in Jordan Stratton, who could provide a nice stalking trip and catch the chalk if it doesn’t bring a top try.
5-Brue Hanover (3/2)-Comes off a 7th place finish but was in tall cotton facing W/O at M1. The Burke trainee lands at a much better level tonight and will be a small price. Jason Bartlett gets the nod, he should look to take control and make every call a winning one.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

3-Pound For Pound (5-1)-Won at this level 4-back and then moved up and raced evenly, cashing a small check only once. Should like the company and could land on top or in the 2-hole. Gets a post edge and should offer a square price.
6-Night Hawk (2-1)-Won versus this kind and then took a big step-up to finish 6th against Open company. Comes back down to the level of recent success and should be forwardly placed off the gate. George Brennan could work a stalking trip and finish best of all.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

1-Wichita Lineman (5/2)-Benefitted from a nice drive, and a lively pace to score at 12-1. Won't be close to that price but has won 2 of the last 3 starts and deserves respect. Joe B will be racing at the top of the stack and is a double up possibility.
4-Ozone Blue Chip (7/2)-This is the 1st start for the Adamczyk barn, Austin Siegelman takes a seat, and he has had success steering the veteran. Usually likes to race on the point, not sure if that happens but will race near the top of the stack and that trip could work out.

Race 12 (10:20 PM EST)

1-Kootenay Santanna (7/2)-Makes the 1st start for the Laterza barn and did win at this level 3 back from the rail. Since then has raced evenly and was hampered by post 7 last time. Brent Holland takes the lines and could look to get on the engine and not look back.
4-Target Acquired (9/5)-Not liking the short price on this 3-year-old but is often in the hunt. Using because Matt Kakaley should be blasting out. If so, a pocket ride could be coming leading to a trip out win.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

3,5/3,6/1,4/1,7
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:13 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#5 Fast Learner	Bit concerned that he has had a bunch of chances, including some at this level. That said, this does not feel like a deep group, and he has a baseline effort that should be good enough to handle these.
#6 Hoppertullio	He'll try the local footing for the first time in a pretty soft spot, and he might have a little more punch while cutting back today. Some chance.
#3 Last Post	He's really dangerous with this group if you think he's getting back to the two- or three-back tries, but I'm not totally sold as they cut the tag in half today off the super flat run. Contender with his best.
Race Summary	Fast Learner should be in a good spot throughout, and I think he finally found the right kind of group to get his picture taken. I'd lean in a bit at something like the 5/2 ML offering.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#1 Parola Sicura	She might like the local footing considering she graduated on synthetic at Turfway, and her first dirt try didn't produce anything memorable last time out, so there's nothing but upside today while trying the locals.
#2 Momentous Miss	She and the top choice both have a little bit of early speed in a race without a ton of confirmed pace, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see her track the splits and stay on for a piece.
#5 Mitole Magic	She's typically the definition of a one-paced type, but that could play well enough for a share of this one -- just think she'll find one or two of them a bit more dynamic today.
Race Summary	Parola Sicura and Momentous Miss look like the right ones on form and race flow -- think one of the two will get home in a fun race.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 She's Got Rhythm	They've been spotting her in really reasonable ways since she graduated a few starts back, and she should get another perfect trip right up near the top today. Can win right back.
#2 Uppity Up	Not much to write home about on recent form, but she has been facing way better than she's going to meet here today, and it'd be no surprise to see her get past this group.
#11 Dominant Stranger	Reliable finisher has some appeal for another share while dropping back to the level of the claim, but she typically settles underneath and makes a bit more sense there again today.
Race Summary	She's Got Rhythm steps into her next condition at the same price, and she has really started to put things together since getting around two turns.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:14 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#1 I NITA WARRIOR (7-2)	Can stalk the faves from rail and gain the stamina from route try to pass ‘em.
#3 LOST MY BAG (2-1)	Steady improvement, rounding to another good effort at new distance.
#6 MY MAN ROWEN (5-2)	Good speed from the outside, goes turf-to-dirt for the first time.
Race Summary	I NITA WARRIOR stalked the dueling leaders and finished third after the winning favorite passed by the last time he sprinted on the main track. He earned his top speed figure off a six-week layoff that day and could work out a similar trip behind the two morning-line favorites in this spot. Bet to win and place and play 1-3 and 1-6 exactas.

Louisiana Downs - Race #4

#2 GABARRA (20-1)	Can be excused for latest, can factor at inflated price in second start as a gelding.
#11 PINEHURST (7-2)	Gibson acquisition won for $50k, ran second for $25k at 6F on Santa Anita lawn.
#5 MALAKI EMPRIE (6-1)	Hooked the winning fave on turn, settled for second after three months idle.
Race Summary	GABARRA exited allowance company for his first start as a gelding but broke through the gate pre-race and was no factor as the favorite in a race won by his stablemate. He posted some solid numbers as a 3-year-old and ran third on the Fair Grounds turf behind Aspenite, who finished second in the Grade 3 Penn Mile three starts later. Wouldn’t expect 20-1 but he’s worth a win and place bet and as part of a 2-5-11 exacta box.

Louisiana Downs - Race #5

#4 FLINT ROCK (5-2)	Chased the faves through fast fractions, finished a distant third in 5F debut.
#3 STAR ROGUE (9-2)	Five-month series of works at track, debuts for high-percentage connections.
#5 DADDY DIGGS (8-1)	Worked in company with BIG MARV in 1:01-3/5 from gate, barn on 7-32 run.
Race Summary	FLINT ROCK chased a :45.2 pace in Maiden Special Weight company and held third in a six-horse field. That experience, coupled with the class drop and second-time Lasix, could pay off with a victory today. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:15 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 2	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4), 20 Cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $22,200 • Post: 3:28P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SPEEDY JOHNY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CHROME'S ANGEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JIMMY IS A BREEZE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination r eturn on investment is at least +20.
5	SPEEDY JOHNY	9/5	7/2
1	CHROME'S ANGEL	3/1	7/2
4	JIMMY IS A BREEZE	5/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CHROME'S ANGEL	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	69	64.4	62.8	57.8
5	SPEEDY JOHNY	5	9/5	Trailer	74	74	46.4	70.0	65.0
4	JIMMY IS A BREEZE	4	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	64	65	46.8	60.2	53.7
2	PRINCESS ALESKA	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	69	43	76.9	43.2	39.2
3	FEROCIOUS QUEEN	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	34	34.1	37.0	28.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 2	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4), 20 Cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $22,200 • Post: 3:28P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SPEEDY JOHNY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CHROME'S ANGEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JIMMY IS A BREEZE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination r eturn on investment is at least +20.
5	SPEEDY JOHNY	9/5	7/2
1	CHROME'S ANGEL	3/1	7/2
4	JIMMY IS A BREEZE	5/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CHROME'S ANGEL	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	69	64.4	62.8	57.8
5	SPEEDY JOHNY	5	9/5	Trailer	74	74	46.4	70.0	65.0
4	JIMMY IS A BREEZE	4	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	64	65	46.8	60.2	53.7
2	PRINCESS ALESKA	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	69	43	76.9	43.2	39.2
3	FEROCIOUS QUEEN	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	34	34.1	37.0	28.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 6	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 6-7) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $32,600 • Post: 3:25P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. JAKE'S ORCHARD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JAKE'S ORCHARD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	JAKE'S ORCHARD	6/1	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	JAKE'S ORCHARD	5	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	71	68	68.4	57.7	51.2
4	PUFF'SMAGICDRAGON	4	3/1	Stalker	59	67	55.7	55.7	48.2
1	WO HOP	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	58	65.6	54.1	47.1
6	DR. DARBY	6	20/1	Trailer	68	48	41.8	47.2	33.7
9	PROPHETIC	9	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	74	69	55.3	50.6	45.1
8	SKYLER'S ARTEMIS	8	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	69	66	60.1	30.8	23.8
2	GOD LAUGHS	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	50.2	31.3	19.3
3	DESTINED FOR GLORY	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	44.2	44.2	32.2

Unknown Running Style: PAINT THE LINE (10/1) [Jockey: Brown Dalton - Trainer: Murphy Timothy P].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $12800 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 JESS A LIL FLIRT 4/1
# 2 ONE LADYS CORONA 7/2
# 7 MISS TAMBIEN WRANGLE 8/1

JESS A LIL FLIRT has a very good shot to take this race. With a reliable 60 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Displays strong Equibase speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. ONE LADYS CORONA - Has to be considered - I like the numbers from the last contest. With a formidable 50 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:28pm - Allowance - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $41,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#12 THEGODDESSOFSNAKES (ML=6/1)
#10 PACHELBEL (ML=8/1)
#4 TRUE PHENOMENON (ML=12/1)

THEGODDESSOFSNAKES - This mount has a lot of class. A good sign in a race on the turf like we have today. PACHELBEL - Classic angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. A live one today. 71-77-81 are last 3 Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something she should do again right here. TRUE PHENOMENON - Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a solid race last time out within the last month. This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Padilla-Preciado. Better watch out for this angle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 GETAWAY PALACE (ML=2/1), #8 PLEASANT DREAMS (ML=3/1), #3 JEANNE MARIE (ML=5/1),

GETAWAY PALACE - Ran her best speed figure last race out, but the 'off track' may have had something to do with it. Today's contest is 7 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint event in the last two months. Not the best of indicators. PLEASANT DREAMS - Had to show me a whole lot more last out. Never made much of an impact. The rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this animal as a likely underlay. JEANNE MARIE - This pony will probably need at least one more race after the lackluster showing following the long breather. I find it hard to bet on any horse in a short distance event at 5/1 when she hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last two months. Improbable that the speed rating she garnered on August 26th will be enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #12 THEGODDESSOFSNAKES to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	12 with [4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,10,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #6 - Post: 6:10pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#6 CAPELLA RED (ML=6/1)
#4 ROSIE'S ANGUS (ML=7/2)

CAPELLA RED - Notched a nice turf figure on Aug 24th at Evangeline Downs. A repeat in this race, and this one has a great shot to win. Lets try to beat the favorites with this filly. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. Past Performances show this campaigner with three improving Equibase speed figures. Lozada should be on a live one in this event. ROSIE'S ANGUS - Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a strong outing last time out within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BEAUTIFULNAVIGATOR (IRE) (ML=5/2), #2 SUPER STORMY (ML=9/2), #5 SIGNING (ML=5/1),

BEAUTIFULNAVIGATOR (IRE) - A pattern of declining Equibase speed figures 93/83/66 for this vulnerable equine. SUPER STORMY - 9/2 is just not enough of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back efforts. This filly notched a speed figure in her last clash which likely isn't good enough today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - CAPELLA RED - With the highest last speed rating of 81, this filly looks exceptional against these thoroughbreds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 CAPELLA RED to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2024, 07:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 69

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 NARIZON 5/2
# 1 BAYTOWN AMY ROSE 9/2
# 8 MIMA PRINCESS 10/1

NARIZON is the best bet in this race. Bravo will probably be able to get this gelding to break out early in this race. Might wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today. Could provide positive profits based on quite good recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 57. BAYTOWN AMY ROSE - Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 50 - of her last effort. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class.