Tuesday 9/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#6 Saki Bomb	He finished up with a little energy in the debut try going short, and his pedigree suggests this mile trip might be in his scope. Enough upside routing to score as the potential co-favorite?
#2 Baytown Baracus	He might like the local company a bit better while getting back in with friends after that Kentucky Downs allowance try, but I'm not that enthused about anything on his form, so I wouldn't want to be here at any kind of short price regardless of how this ends.
#3 Notfanutin	He couldn't stay late in the first route try last time out, but he might have a bit better late punch with that run under his belt. Still, his main chance comes from the fact that this is a soft race, not anything particularly exciting on his page.
Race Summary	Hoping Saki Bomb will end up somewhere in the 2/1 range when all is said and done, as I think he's got the right upside while stepping around two turns in his second start.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#1 Courageous Ari	She's got a little bit of pace to her that might prove useful from the fence in a race without any other serious speed. Let's see if she can make a break for it early. Strong lean.
#6 Two Scoops	Her two local tries have been competitive, but I'm not sure the price is going to be much after she turned in another good effort after the dud at Saratoga. Obvious threat on the scene late.
#8 Instabrat	She was in the frame at first asking and brings some reasonable upside today, and I like the outside draw for another spying trip. Wouldn't surprise in a fun race.
Race Summary	Solid call to Courageous Ari from the inside, as she's fast enough to be right up in the mix early with this group, and she should get the jump on a couple of the other serious threats.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#3 Mahjong Girl	Speed should be quick enough to control the tempo again today, and she took a step in the right direction last time out when staying on well for second. Willing to give her the call again.
#2 Little Miss Munny	Reliable finisher gets back into an easier spot today with some honest form on her page, and she should at least be coming home with a little bit of enthusiasm in a spot when many of the others may not be.
#6 Sicilian Princess	She's probably a good fit with the locals, but I worry she's going to be a short price like she was in the two-back run at Horseshoe Indianapolis when she never got involved.
Race Summary	Mahjong Girl showed something better last time out, and I'm going to take that at face value in hopes she can repeat it today. Brave on the engine to land this?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#5 EL HERMANO (2-1)	Good Parx record, better post, best numbers in third start of cycle.
#1 UP AGAINST IT (7-2)	Knows how to win, eligible for this spot by one day off Lake claim.
#2 DIXIE’S TWO STENTS (3	Drops off claim, lack of pace and 1-20 record at track a concern.
Race Summary	EL HERMANO rallied wide to finish second from posts 8 and 10 three times in five starts this year. He draws a better post and could be in close striking range in a race void of speed. Today’s best bet is worth a win and place wager. Also play a 5/1,2,4/1,2,4 trifecta.

Parx - Race #2

#2 CARBONITE (6-1)	Poor record, but he gets Paco and shortens up with $77k bankroll at 6F.
#6 DUNPHY (9-5)	Led at stretch call in 3 of last 5 starts but didn’t win, changes pilots again.
#5 I FEELLUCKY TONITE (7-2)	Seized the moment with winning rally after the fave broke slowly.
Race Summary	CARBONITE dueled and held on for minor awards in back-to-back 6-1/2F sprints, the latest against a 3-to-5 winner. He cuts back in distance and is re-united with Paco, who coaxed a runner-up finish out of the 5-year-old the last time he was aboard. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #4

#4 SUENO PROFUNDO (3-1)	Steps up after sharp score for new barn, same move at 6F works at 5-1/2F.
#5 EGO MAN (8-5)	Classy 7-year-old carried speed to first win this year to reward loyal backers.
#1 HARLEY’S CHARLY (8-1)	Rallied to win at 6F and 6-1/2F recently, returns on short rest.
Race Summary	SUENO PROFUNDO threw his head in the gate right before it opened, but he broke well and settled into a perfect trip off the dueling leaders to romp. He can handle another class hike for a barn in the midst of a 5-for-16 streak in the last 30 days. Bet to win and place and play a 4/1,5/ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 3	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $15,750 • Post: 3:56P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,750, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. ZAFEATHER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ZAFEATHER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfac e. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RIFLING: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface . Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	ZAFEATHER	12/1	3/1
1	RIFLING	12/1	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	ZAFEATHER	5	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	69	62	54.2	56.4	51.4
6	ASHWICKEN	6	2/1	Stalker	67	63	50.4	37.2	30.7
4	FORMENTOR	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	60	50	56.8	44.4	34.4
1	RIFLING	1	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	77	54.6	58.6	52.6
2	STOLE THE RING	2	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	68	56	51.2	55.4	50.4
3	CREATIVPERFORMANCE	3	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	65	59	62.4	48.0	39.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 8	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 6:09P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 17, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GENERAL WINSTON: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. COMMODORE BARRY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. JUPITER BLUES: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. FUEL THE BERN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
11	GENERAL WINSTON	7/2	5/1
7	COMMODORE BARRY	9/2	5/1
10	JUPITER BLUES	3/1	6/1
9	FUEL THE BERN	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	FUEL THE BERN	9	6/1	Front-runner	82	75	74.2	67.0	51.5
4	LORD OF LEGENDS	4	15/1	Front-runner	79	70	68.6	67.2	55.7
3	SWITHER'S SHORTCUT	3	12/1	Stalker	80	81	59.8	73.2	56.2
6	JUST WATCH ME NOW	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	80	68.4	72.6	63.1
11	GENERAL WINSTON	11	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	88	81	59.8	81.2	78.2
10	JUPITER BLUES	10	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	78	57.0	71.0	66.0
7	COMMODORE BARRY	7	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	89	82	55.6	78.0	68.5
5	SEEING RED	5	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	77	76	51.2	71.4	57.9
8	THE COOKIE MAN	8	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	68	43.6	65.6	53.6
2	BEE BY THE SEA	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	62	80.0	51.8	35.3
12	BANDITOFTHEPRAIRIE	12	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	74	55.5	66.2	48.2
1	DUDLEY	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	70	50.0	60.2	36.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BINX 6/1
# 8 JV TUPELO HONEY 3/1
# 3 PRAYING FOR RAIN 5/2

BINX appears to be the bet in here. Has been running solidly lately and will almost certainly be close to the lead early on. Should definitely be given a chance in this race if only for the very good Equibase speed fig recorded in the last contest. PRAYING FOR RAIN - Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 59 speed rating which is one of the most favorable in this group. Posted a formidable Equibase Speed Figure last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#6 CHANEL SPIRIT (ML=5/2)
#2 THEODOROPOULOS (ML=4/1)
#4 QUEENIE ROSE (ML=9/2)


CHANEL SPIRIT - I'll forgive that last effort on Sep 5th when she was beaten as the public choice. That race was pretty good for a $16,000 Optional Claiming race and this filly's rating was solid. Have to like this filly today. If you take a look at her PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each race. This filly is in good condition, having run a nice race on Sep 5th, finishing second. I like when a racer has dropped in class at least five pts like this one did in the last race and then runs against a similar field right back. Cline must've found the right class. THEODOROPOULOS - After the contest aboard this animal on August 29th, the rider is going to be in touch with the mare much better. The way this clash sets up this mare will be in perfect position when they turn for home. Looking at today's class figure, this pony is encountering an easier group than last out at Thistledown. This mare is in top form right now. Ran second in the last race and comes back quickly. QUEENIE ROSE - Have to give this mare a good chance. Ran a solid effort last out within the last month or so. I like the way this mare's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a racer coming into top form. This mare is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Cline. When Cline gives Aviles a leg up on any mount, you have to feel that with their win percentage you have decidedly more than a fighting chance. This horse collects a lot of money per race. I believe she will boost the lifetime bankroll today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SONNET (ML=3/1), #5 ELIKA (ML=6/1), #3 CRY IF I WANT TO (ML=6/1),

SONNET - This entrant just hasn't looked fit recently. ELIKA - Earned a quite unimpressive speed figure last time around the track in a $7,500 Claiming race on Sep 4th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. CRY IF I WANT TO - The speed fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 CHANEL SPIRIT to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #5 - Post: 5:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#8 ASTROLOGY WONOWON (ML=8/1)
#11 WHATDIDWEDO (ML=15/1)
#5 MALIBU MONEY (ML=4/1)


ASTROLOGY WONOWON - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should be aided by this contest's shorter distance. The rider and handler combination have a lucrative ROI when they work together. On September 2nd this gelding shipped in to finish first and looks good right back. Patt brings him right back. I advocate you stick with this live gelding. This gelding almost broke his maiden since he finished first last time out, but was taken down. WHATDIDWEDO - This gelding should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle. MALIBU MONEY - Was in a $12,500 Maiden Claiming race at Louisiana Downs last out. That race had a class number of 69 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain strong challenger. This gelding is in fine condition, having run a strong race on September 3rd, finishing second. Trainer, Mojica, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Trying to break maiden moving from a grass race to the main track. I think Mojica will have him fit and ready for today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SPOONMAN (ML=7/2), #2 WILDCATS'S MEOW (ML=9/2), #3 ONE SHARP TIZ (ML=5/1),

SPOONMAN - Trying to beat this thoroughbred today at the price of 7/2. WILDCATS'S MEOW - This pony ran a somewhat easily forgotten rating last time around the track. He shouldn't run much better and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that figure. ONE SHARP TIZ - This sustainer looks to have no chance without a speed battle on the front end.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #8 ASTROLOGY WONOWON on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,8,11] with [5,8,11] with [3,5,7,8,11] with [3,5,7,8,11] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 FOR HORSES THAT HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 LUCKSME 3/1
# 4 TOO MUCH TUESDAY 7/2
# 2 MISS DUTTON 9/2

I've got to go with LUCKSME. Has been racing admirably in races of this distance, going 2 out of 8 under similar conditions. Has been running well lately and will probably be up on the front end early on. The speed figure of 63 from her last race looks strong in here. TOO MUCH TUESDAY - This filly looks very good in this event since Watkins has a strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. Arrieta should be able to get this filly to break out sharply in this competition. MISS DUTTON - With a sound 63 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this horse look very good in this outing.