Thursday 9/19/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #5

#6 Zap D'Etat	He ran on well enough in those turf tries to open his career, and I think he's worth a look with a versatile pedigree that hints the main track might not be an issue. Wouldn't be a shock to see him roll past late.
#9 Monsieur Big Man	Want him covered on the main plays after he failed to draw into a spot where I liked him last weekend, and he's about as close to a co-top choice as possible. Looks to be coming into this the right way.
#4 Admiral Dennis	Dangerous team sends out this debuter with a pretty forward worktab, but the connections guarantee that he'll take some cash -- get a look on the tote and track.
Race Summary	Zap D'Etat turned in a couple decent tries so far on the turf and seems as dangerous as any in here if he can handle the main track. Connections might help keep the price playable.

Churchill Downs - Race #6

#9 Metalhead	He may still have some upside after turning in a really respectable Ellis run while trying winners for the first time, and his positional pace should keep him in a great spot into the first turn. Demand a fair price when you have to deal with the next guy....
#9 Generous Tipper	Wouldn't be a shock to see him roll these while getting some class relief off the break -- anything like that try in the Grade I Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland before the layoff would probably drill these.
#3 Kinetic	Not impossible for him to step up and win right back after taking a nice step forward when stretching out to score last out, but this feels like a fairly stout N1X, so I'd want a better price than this team typically offers.
Race Summary	Metalhead is worth a look for a mild upset if Generous Tipper isn't ready to bring his A-game today. Would also consider #1 Brunacini on the rise from a sharp debut score.

Churchill Downs - Race #1

#5 Mary Loves Louie	Not totally sure what to make of her here, but she might be able to show something better today if she can flash some early pace untroubled while getting back around two turns. Midrange price chance from close range.
#8 Bisa	Suppose something like the three-back run could translate well enough to this kind of group if she's able to get back to it. Dropper needs to wake up, but she lands in a spot where that's quite possible.
#2 City Cocktails	She'll try the main track for the first time while getting in for a tag, and we might see a more even kind of effort from her that helps her stick around for a piece.
Race Summary	Mary Loves Louie has some pace in a race that doesn't seem to have a ton of late kick signed on, so I'm hoping she can put away the other early players and find herself alone late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#3 LOOKING FOR WATER (7-2)	Looking for duplicate of race two back, barn good with class droppers.
#1 BOOTSY’S MERLOT (6-1)	Rounding to another good effort, much livelier pace to upgrade near miss.
#2 AETHELFLAED (5-2)	Won from on and off the pace at this distance in August.
Race Summary	LOOKING FOR WATER trailed into the final turn but rallied 4-wide to win for her new connections in a longer route race two back. She trailed throughout for a higher tag last out, now drops below her claim level with ample pace to run at. Bet to win and place and play a 1,3/1,2,3/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#5 LUCKY HONEY (5-2)	Laurel invader takes magnified class drop in this field, stretches out.
#7 CHACHITA (9-2)	Held for minor awards against short-priced winners twice at Monmouth.
#6 WICKED KITTEN (9-5)	Hit board in 6 of last 7 starts but stands 0-for-19 overall.
Race Summary	LUCKY HONEY tried blinkers to no avail, not tries going long on the main track for the first time. She scratched out of a $30,000 turf route for Maryland breds last week at Laurel Park to run for $6,250, the cheapest claiming tag of her career. She appears an all-or-nothing type, so play a 5/6,7/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #8

#3 FABULOUS CANDY (6-1)	Cutback to sprint could trigger turnaround on the class drop.
#1 ZIFFY BUG (4-1)	Romped on cutback to 6F from the rail, makes third start in last 15 days.
#6 BOH’S N O’S (3-	Rallied into slow pace to finish second in five-horse field, drops below claim level.
Race Summary	FABULOUS CANDY has been burning serious money of late, but she rallied for third the last two times she sprinted and should benefit from a one-mile test last out, when she gained 3-wide on the final turn but weakened. Take a cue from Bootsy’s Merlot -- one of the rivals who beat her -- in today’s first race. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belmont at the Big A
PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race 3	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 3 &4, Pick 3 ($1) (3-5) Pick 4 (.50) (3-6)
Maiden Special • 1 1/8 Miles • Outer Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $90,000 • Post: 2:09P
(RAIL AT 36 FEET). OUTER TURF (UP TO $15,660 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. STOP THE PRESS is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * STOP THE PRESS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PARTY WITH S MARTY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (GB): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Ra ting. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TAKE YOUR SEATS (IRE): Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	STOP THE PRESS	6/1	7/2
5	PARTY WITH SMARTY	20/1	8/1
1A	PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (GB)	3/5	8/1
1	TAKE YOUR SEATS (IRE)	3/5	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	FIRST TRUMPET	7	50/1	Front-runner	88	83	77.7	53.1	42.6
2	STOP THE PRESS	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	82	78.8	81.6	77.1
5	PARTY WITH SMARTY	4	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	69	73.0	75.9	66.4
1	TAKE YOUR SEATS (IRE)	6	3/5	Alternator/Stalker	92	93	27.4	70.6	64.1
1A	PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (GB)	8	3/5	Trailer	93	84	56.7	80.2	78.2
6	LCGOLUCKY	5	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	69.8	61.4	48.4
4	MR FLOWERS	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	76	65.0	72.0	62.5

Unknown Running Style: GUN BARREL CITY (2/1) [Jockey: Ortiz Jr Irad - Trainer: Pletcher Todd A].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 5	Pick 3 (5-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Quiniela / Superfecta / Daily Double 5-6
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 38 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 4:30P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. 2# A CLASFS. INFERIOR Y DEBTS ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CUTENESS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CUTENESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LUCKY SK ULL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DELVINA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figur e at the distance/surface.
11	CUTENESS	2/1	3/1
2	LUCKY SKULL	4/1	5/1
12	DELVINA	3/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	CUTENESS	11	2/1	Front-runner	39	32	37.0	28.8	23.8
12	DELVINA	12	3/1	Stalker	40	30	30.2	30.5	26.0
1	FACTOR SECURITY	1	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	31.7	20.2	12.7
2	LUCKY SKULL	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	39	32	31.3	30.3	24.8
6	SILVER FINISH	6	10/1	Trailer	0	0	19.9	19.9	9.9
3	SWIFT SPARK	3	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	4.7	22.8	15.3

Unknown Running Style: SCAT WOMAN (10/1) [Jockey: Garcia Jomar - Trainer: Escobar Gilberto], THREE STEP AHEAD (7/2) [Jockey: Diaz Jr Jc - Trainer: Garcia Sammy], LULU LA MODELO (5/1) [Jockey: Diaz Juan C - Trainer: Astacio Jonathan], SEA PRINCESS (9/

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $46240 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 RAVIN'S TOWN 7/2
# 6 ZIPPIN GIGI 4/1
# 7 SINNER'S SIN 3/1

I've got to go with RAVIN'S TOWN. Have to suppose this pony will make a good impression again today. With one of the top jockeys in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out. Starters trained by Haran in dirt sprint races are normally reliable. ZIPPIN GIGI - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. He must be given a shot given the very good speed numbers. SINNER'S SIN - He has been running soundly and the speed figs are among the strongest in this group. Has to be carefully examined versus this field displaying very good figs recently and an average speed fig of 84 under similar conditions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 42

Rating:

#5 BUTTERFLY WORLD (ML=9/2)


BUTTERFLY WORLD - I like to see fast morning drills. This filly's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BIT OF BLESSINGS (ML=5/2), #1 VIESTE (ML=3/1), #6 FUNNY ROAD (ML=4/1),

BIT OF BLESSINGS - I cannot play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the job completed from time to time. This steed has not scored here today in 11 starts. Little chance she wins today. VIESTE - More than enough races at Charles Town with no visits to the victory stand. FUNNY ROAD - This filly gave a less than rousing performance last time. This filly hasn't had any positive efforts in sprint races in the last couple months. Finished fifth in her most recent performance with a substandard speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 BUTTERFLY WORLD to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 64

FOR MN-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 KIND KISMET 9/5
# 3 MIDNIGHT JOY 5/2
# 5 EMERYANDAVERY 8/1

KIND KISMET looks to be a formidable contender. In this field, this one is in the upper half of earnings per start in dirt sprint events. She has earned very good figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well against this field. Exhibits the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 56 Equibase speed fig which is one of the strongest in this group. MIDNIGHT JOY - Very solid dividends over time for this jock and trainer combo. Has been running soundly lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on. EMERYANDAVERY - This filly has some longshot angles I like to bet on. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Delaware Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,500 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#1 SIDNEY'S BID (ML=6/1)
#5 BAD HOMBRE (ML=2/1)
#6 LET IT RIDENESS (ML=8/1)


SIDNEY'S BID - I like this thoroughbred. Should be familiar with this class since he ran against the same type last time out at Delaware Park. Last ran at Delaware Park and finished fourth. Reviewing his past performance data, I see he was close at the end, within five of the winner. BAD HOMBRE - I like when a thoroughbred has dropped in class at least five class points like this one did in the last race and then runs against a similar field right back. Raven must've found the right level. LET IT RIDENESS - Horse's last race was at Delaware Park in a race with a class number of 83. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure this time out puts him in a solid position in today's race. This gelding's last rating is good enough to score here, I'll play him right back today. This gelding is at the top in earnings per race entered. Take a long look at this animal in the saddling enclosure.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BAD HENRY (ML=8/5), #4 DUKE OF DOOLY (ML=7/2),

BAD HENRY - Hard to play a questionable contender that can't even triumph one time in his last ten races. Tough to put any dough on this gelding on the front end. Likes to hit the board though. No pace in this race to help this closer's hopes. DUKE OF DOOLY - Difficult to put your money on the win end of any mount that finishes second and third as regularly as this entrant does.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 SIDNEY'S BID to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip