Monday 9/23/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:44 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 23, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $15,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Spirit of StLouis N (9/2)-Raced better than the line looked in its 1st race stateside this year. Finished and even 5th but did pace the back half in a snappy .54 flat. Looking for better after a needed race and will hope the ML price does hold up.
4-Covered Bridge (6-1)-Will look at this race differently than most, but the price is right to take a swing. My take is Jordan Statton will time the gate, leave hard and land on the point. If so, this classy veteran could be tough to tackle.
5-Hellabalou (8/5)-Here’s the program chalk who has been facing tough customers and is in a spot to take a picture. Not sure if Joe B leaves hard. Maybe not but could look to take charge later in the mile, or stalk and finish best of all at a small price.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Cadillac Bayama (8-1)-Faced this kind in last from the 8 hole and had no chance but did pace the back half in a sizzling 53.4. Tonight, Pat Lachance should be positioned much closer to the leaders at the 3/4's pole than 7th, 5 lengths back.
2-Nandolo N (5/2)-Steps up after a sharp win with Jason Bartlett doing the steering. Tonight, could duck and then pull later and sweep by like the last time. This pilot has options and that could be the winning difference.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

2-Franki Frankie (4-1)-Frankie has found the going tough in his 4-year-old season. Canadian invader put in a decent YR debut leaving from post 7. Showed some gate speed, gained position down the lane, and could be a threat with this post draw.
3-Decision Day (9/2)-Went gate to wire form the rail and now bumps up but should still fit. The Bruce Saunders 9-year-old is having a nice year and could double up. Brent Holland can look to make very call a winning one again.
8-Southwind Petyr (6-1)-Petyr is another that isn't having the same success as last year. It's always a question of how much back class means. Looking for an aggressive steer and a square price. Both could happen as the Bartlett-Daguet combo produces 28% winners.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

1-Shakespeare (6-1)-Gets needed post relief and this is the time for Stratton to protect the rail and race with the leaders. Looking for that kind of trip and should offer a solid price.
5-Gentle Giant (8/5)-Beat this kind leaving from post 8 last time. Matt Kakaley grabs the lines tonight, and the 5-year-old likes to take pictures. It's best to respect chances of another trip to the winner's circle.
7-Hez Allthe Rage N (5-1)-Expecting Bartlett to time the gate and look to land on the point. That can happen and is a threat to cash the top check if gets a breather while on the lead.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,4,5/1,2/2,3,8/1,5,7
Total Bet=$54

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:52 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#6 Everybreathyoutake	She figures to be in the mix early on while stretching out and adding blinkers, and she wasn't pushed out too hard once tailed off in the prompt-and-fade debut run.
#1 Hold On	She got past some of them late in the debut run after having trouble into the lane, so there is probably a bit of upside today if she can get a clean run of things while making her second start.
#2 Hidden Recipe	She hasn't quite been able to keep pace when sprinting, but the more leisurely route tempo might give her a chance to track the pace and plug along for a share.
Race Summary	Everybreathyoutake showed pace and quite in the debut run, but that came against a deeper bunch at Kentucky Downs and should set her up well for a step forward at second asking. Not sure the price will be much.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#5 R Chello	I haven't trusted him a whole lot along the way so far, and he was way up the track last out at a short price. I'm going to forgive him for that one -- he's back with Lasix after heading to the bench for almost two months after that try. Expecting better, and that should be enough to handle these.
#8 Jimmy Rules	He has tracked the pace and then gone mildly in the lane in his first two starts, but I don't think this is a super-deep group, and he should get a great run of things while shadowing a couple pace players inside.
#1 Hoylake	He probably just woke up because of the big drop last time out, but he might wind up getting a dreamy trip in behind the committed forward players while saving ground the entire way. Slips through at a price? Wouldn't ruin my day.
Race Summary	I don't trust him a ton, but I think R Chello is supposed to handle these. Lots of hints on his page to suggest we might give him a pass for the last one. Hoylake on the B plays.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Normandy Life	Bit of a reach, but her best stuff is in range of what it would take to land this, and she'd benefit if a few of the potential forward players battled early on.
#4 Fleur Delacour	She's dangerous right back here with local form that has been super consistent. Wonder if there is just enough other pace to force her hand a bit early?
#2 Rhapsody	Struggled with what to do with this one. Her better stuff fits well, but there isn't a whole lot to write home about from her last two. Looks like they backed off her a bit this summer, so maybe the freshening has her ready for better.
Race Summary	Normandy Life should offer a price with some hit-or-miss Penn form on her page, but I think she's probably sitting on a better try today at a decent price. Dangerous if the race flow develops in her favor?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:52 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#4 MY STORY (6-1)	Right set-up, right price on return to the lawn against state-bred rivals.
#5 INVOLVEDNTERACTION (5-2)	Second to rallying fave and longshot pace-setter in last two on turf.
#7 NATIVE REQUITE (9-2)	Tired badly in same spot but finished second in prior four starts.
Race Summary	MY STORY returns to turf, where he gained late for third at this distance, then faded in the stretch from post 11 in a follow-up try. He has improved and should get a good pace to rally into for a possible upset. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5-7 exacta box.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#7 PORTO DEL ACE (5-1)	Best rally fits well, needs some pace flow, changes jockeys often.
#1 PINCHING PENNIES (3-1)	Chased the 9-1 winner and ran second for a higher tag at this distance.
#3 NICELY UNIFIED (7-2)	Starts fresh, can make good use of her speed in bid for third win this year.
Race Summary	PORTO DEL ACE sustained a wide rally into a slow pace to win off similar rest at this distance. She ran well enough against better rivals before the claim to suggest she can repeat. Bet to win and place and play 7-1 and 7-3 exactas.

Louisiana Downs - Race #4

#5 ZONG’S FAVOR (12-1)	Price stab in wide open race with Borel off decent try two back.
#11 LOUISIANA BARGAIN (5-1)	Made move to stretch lead, adds blinkers, but moves inside out.
#3 IRON FORTUNE (6-1)	Rallied for minor awards in last two starts at Evangeline.
Race Summary	ZONG’S FAVOR has a useful debut sprint on the main track to summon, one troubled trip from three starts on the turf and a decent middle move going a route of ground. He’s worth a price shot off a sub-par try with blinkers added last out. Bet to win and place and play a 3-5-11 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:53 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows
PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 5	Win/ Place/ Show/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum)
Claiming $12,500 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $11,500 • Post: 5:40P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * GRIT EYE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. JESS SHAKE IT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. IRIS RAMIRO CORAJE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. BREITLING DYNASTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DC FUSION: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	GRIT EYE	3/1	5/1
8	JESS SHAKE IT	4/1	6/1
9	IRIS RAMIRO CORAJE	7/2	8/1
10	BREITLING DYNASTY	5/1	8/1
7	DC FUSION	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TS BUY ME A CORONA	1	15/1	Average	63	60	4.1	0.0	0.0
2	STR FORGED IN FIRE	2	20/1	Slow	60	62	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	CHARMING GOGO	3	20/1	Average	64	58	6.0	0.0	0.0
4	MEAPONTE	4	20/1	Average	65	66	4.1	0.0	0.0
5	IMA FAST CAT TOO	5	10/1	Average	60	60	5.3	0.0	0.0
6	GRIT EYE	6	3/1	Average	77	74	4.3	0.0	0.0
7	DC FUSION	7	6/1	Average	71	61	5.3	0.0	0.0
8	JESS SHAKE IT	8	4/1	Slow	71	73	6.7	0.0	0.0
9	IRIS RAMIRO CORAJE	9	7/2	Average	69	67	5.6	0.0	0.0
10	BREITLING DYNASTY	10	5/1	Average	72	67	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:53 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 1	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 1-2-3) Pick 5 (min .50 cent) (Races 1-5)
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 3:00P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * HOLLA AT YOUR BOY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CHANGE THE HOUR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BANG A RANG: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. S S FUN AND GAMES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
3	HOLLA AT YOUR BOY	5/2	9/2
1	CHANGE THE HOUR	8/5	5/1
5	BANG A RANG	9/2	7/1
6	S S FUN AND GAMES	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	S S FUN AND GAMES	6	10/1	Front-runner	73	57	72.3	55.3	46.8
4	PENTATONIC	4	7/2	Front-runner	63	57	69.6	57.4	48.9
1	CHANGE THE HOUR	1	8/5	Stalker	74	71	70.6	70.0	66.0
5	BANG A RANG	5	9/2	Stalker	77	74	64.8	70.8	64.8
3	HOLLA AT YOUR BOY	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	80	76	68.1	67.4	62.9
2	NIGHTSCAPE	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	62	54.8	51.2	42.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:53 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 73

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 *PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BAIT N SWITCH 4/1
# 7 UNION COLONEL 3/1
# 3 EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN 7/2

BAIT N SWITCH is tough to overlook as the wager in here. This gelding has to be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. Has to be given a shot based on the strong Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last contest. Has performed strongly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 73 avg speed rating. UNION COLONEL - Ought to come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the front end recently. Ran a strong last race. EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN - His 70 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase Speed Figures in here. Ceccato has this gelding running well and is a respectable pick based on the solid Equibase Speed Figures earned in sprint races lately.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:53 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:34pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#6 FOUR DAYS EARLY (ML=5/1)
#3 HERO'S SPIRIT (ML=3/1)
#1 HOPPY TIME (ML=2/1)

FOUR DAYS EARLY - Horse's last race was at Parx Racing in a race with a class rating of 69. Dropping significantly in class figure this time out puts him in a solid position right here. This horse collects a lot of cash per start. In the top spot in this affair. This gelding notched a strong speed figure of 64 in his last race. That speed rating should be good enough to win this time out. HERO'S SPIRIT - Moya and Curry teamed up together are a railbird's friend. Was in a Maiden Special race at Parx Racing in the last race. That affair had an Equibase class figure of 69 and he is moving down in this event. A certain strong challenger. HOPPY TIME - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first attempt on August 16th. Should be in touch with the horse even better today. Last raced at Penn National in a race with a class figure of 64. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure today puts him in a solid position right here. The recent bullet 49.3 work should put this gelding on track for today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CURAGIO (ML=4/1), #4 END THE VIOLENCE (ML=5/1),

CURAGIO - Doesn't appear to have enough positive angles to support the price. END THE VIOLENCE - Should have at least hit the board in the last 60 days in a short distance affair to be worth the chance at minimal odds in a sprint. 5/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when looking at the most recent outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 FOUR DAYS EARLY on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,3,6] with [1,3,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:54 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 72

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 COCOS FANCY GIRL 5/1
# 4 R BEST CARD 5/2
# 2 COWGIRL MP 10/1

COCOS FANCY GIRL looks competitive to best this field. Shows solid Speed Figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this field. Looks very strong against this group of horses in this race and will most likely be one of the early speedsters. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field recently. R BEST CARD - Has to be given a chance here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 84 speed rating put up in her last outing. COWGIRL MP - Conditioner boasts very strong win figures at this distance and surface. Gold has shown excellent profits (+170 return on investment ) with horses in short events.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2024, 09:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #4 - Post: 5:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#7 A G'S GEM (ML=8/1)
#11 LOUISIANA BARGAIN (ML=5/1)
#2 SEEKING A SOLDIER (ML=10/1)

A G'S GEM - Early zip is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter trip and should enhance his chances. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. LOUISIANA BARGAIN - Colt's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. Faced tougher last time out at Louisiana Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of contenders in this race. Nelson brings him back again. I advise you stay with this hot colt. SEEKING A SOLDIER - The September 9th affair at Louisiana Downs was at a class level of (64). Dropping to a lower level considerably, so he should be in a good place. Thompson brings him right back. I advocate you stick with this strong gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ALLONANITA'SLUCK (ML=7/2), #9 BELLAMY BROTHER (ML=9/2), #3 IRON FORTUNE (ML=6/1),

ALLONANITA'SLUCK - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this participant when examining the most recent showings. BELLAMY BROTHER - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint affairs in order to back him. IRON FORTUNE - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LOUISIANA BARGAIN - The addition of the 'hood' should keep this colt's mind on business. Take stock in this mount today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 A G'S GEM to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,7,11] with [2,7,11] with [2,5,7,11,12] with [2,5,7,11,12] Total Cost: $36