Tuesday 9/24/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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California Crown Lures 30 Entries Over 3 Headliners

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September 23, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s inaugural California Crown, Thoroughbred racing’s newest $1 million prize, attracted seven runners, including 2023 Preakness and 2024 Pegasus World Cup winner National Treasure. He’s joined by Arkansas Derby winner Muth in his first foray against older horses, as well as Senor Buscador, whose $12 million career bankroll puts him in the top-10 on the all-time North American list for money earners. Santa Anita Handicap 1-2 finishers Newgate and Subsanador also renew their acquaintances in the main event.

The 1-1/8 miles Grade 1 California Crown could be a major steppingstone toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic or Dirt Mile, taking the place on the Santa Anita stakes calendar formerly occupied by the Awesome Again Stakes. It’s one of 3 signature California Crown races on the card, immediately preceded by the 11-runner Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship for grass routers (Race 7) and the 12-runner Grade 2 Eddie D Stakes for turf sprinters (Race 8). The loaded card also includes the listed Unzip Me for turf sprint fillies and mares as well as the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile for top turf milers.

National Treasure owns the most natural speed in the California Crown and should be forward throughout under Flavien Prat. His victory in the Grade 1 Met Mile was brilliant before a misfire over a wet track in the Grade 1 Whitney upon his Saratoga return. He’s struggled throughout his career on wet tracks and should bounce back on fast going Saturday. Stablemate Muth may have the most speed among the rest, but don’t expect the Bob Baffert stablemates to clash throughout the trip. Juan Hernandez rides Muth, who has made just 1 start since April’s Arkansas Derby and missed this year’s Triple Crown series. Expect Senor Buscador to be compromised by the modest tempo expected and finish with run that moves him forward to the 1-1/4 miles Breeders’ Cup Classic.

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Balnikhov, winner of Pimlico’s Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes on the Preakness Day card, continues his pursuit of a $2.5 million bonus in the California Crown turf series if he can win Saturday’s John Henry and January’s Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream. His chief rivals in the 1-1/4 miles John Henry Turf Championship include last year’s race runner-up Dicey Mo Chara, as well as Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap and Grade 2 Whittingham winner Gold Phoenix.
The Eddie D will blaze 6-1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf course and includes last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf sprint runner-up and recent Saratoga stakes winner Big Invasion. The New York-based dasher meets last year’s Eddie D narrow third-place finisher Noble Reflection as well as Group 2 Godolphin Mile winner Two Rivers Over.

The Race 10 City of Hope Mile features Johannes, unbeaten in 3 starts this year, including the American and Shoemaker Mile over the Santa Anita lawn. Maryland-based Trikari ships west to provide opposition after registering wins in the Grade 2 American Turf at Churchill, Grade 1 Belmont Derby at Aqueduct and Grade 2 Secretariat at Colonial Downs.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#1 Rock Tune	Not sure we'll get the 12/1 ML offering on the drop today, but her first spin over the local surface was encouraging enough, and the class relief against this group might help her make it graduation day.
#2 Lady's Chant	She's getting a little short on excuses with the long string of non-threatening underneath finishes on her page, but she ran OK a few times here earlier this season and wouldn't be a shock.
#3 Midnight Fame	She's another dropper with a claim on this, but I worry the price might be on the short side for a horse who hasn't done a lot of good work in the lane in recent starts. Capable underlay?
Race Summary	Rock Tune should find a good spot near the top from the fence today, and he might wind up being a really good fit with this kind of company at the local level.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#8 Stayinyourlane	He was knocking on the door at Colonial and faced better in his two starts here earlier this year, so I think he's one of the clear players while trying the local company at this level.
#1 Gruit	He at least showed tiny signs of life in the last two when dropping back in for a tag, and he's just a small move forward away from being in the mix for a share of this at a price.
#5 Whiskey or Wine	He's one of the capable players in here, but I think there are a few different ways to go in this race, and his price might not accurately reflect that.
Race Summary	Stayinyourlane might be a price that's just playable enough on the board even while trying the local footing for a tag for the first time, but I wouldn't argue too hard with just about anyone in here depending on the price.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#4 Cupid Missed	Have loved the way she's going this season, and she earned this hike off a couple solid wins from off the pace in recent starts. Hoping she gets at least a fair tempo.
#1 Cloud in the Wind	Dangerous player drops after landing a couple shares with allowance company, but I worry about her getting a tricky trip from the fence with a lot of nibbles on her page -- don't think it takes a lot of inconvenience for her to settle underneath.
#6 Maiden Lane	She just posted a solid score going long here and now cuts back to try to turn the tables on a couple runners who beat her in her more recent sprint races. Along for a piece.
Race Summary	Cupid Missed might find herself in a really great spot to spy the pace while stepping up in search of a third straight score, and I'm hoping the price will be right with a question to answer on class.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse Racing
PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 5	$1.00 Daily Double (Races 5-6) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) .10 Cent Superfecta
Claiming $3,200 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 2:52P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. AFRICAN WARRIOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * D'ARCHER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase C lass Rating at the distance/surface. IDEA MAN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ORBITAL STARR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth st art after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. AFRICAN WARRIOR: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layof f.
7	D'ARCHER	9/2	9/2
3	IDEA MAN	3/1	6/1
6	ORBITAL STARR	4/1	8/1
8	AFRICAN WARRIOR	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	AFRICAN WARRIOR	8	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	71	58	54.4	55.2	43.2
7	D'ARCHER	7	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	84	71	62.6	57.2	50.7
3	IDEA MAN	3	3/1	Trailer	76	70	48.2	66.2	62.7
6	ORBITAL STARR	6	4/1	Trailer	74	66	29.4	65.2	58.2
2	SAFE	2	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	69	63	26.6	52.8	43.8
5	KANITHAPPEN	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	51	67.2	51.4	35.9
4	LITTLE MIGHTY MAN	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	66	45.6	48.4	41.4
1	CHERNYAHOVSKIY	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	58	29.6	53.4	43.9

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 6	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $26,400 • Post: 3:20P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HUB is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HUB: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highes t average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	HUB	9/5	9/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	SWIFT DANCER	4	10/1	Front-runner	61	44	60.8	45.6	34.1
2	HE'S A PISCES	2	7/2	Front-runner	80	81	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	HUB	6	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	85	72	74.5	69.2	67.2
5	RYNO WRECKER	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	67	70.4	50.4	40.4
1	LEGENDARY STAR	1	8/1	Trailer	70	54	33.6	51.9	45.4
7	MIDNIGHT COUNCIL	7	5/2	Trailer	83	74	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: KEEPING IT SIMPLE (15/1) [Jockey: Jimenez Samuel - Trainer: Romero Jose A].

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 3:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#6 KATHLYNS PHALANX (ML=5/2)


KATHLYNS PHALANX - Have to make this mare a solid contender; she comes off a nice race on September 9th. A repeat of that recent effort on Sep 9th where she earned a speed rating of 70 looks good enough to prove victorious in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MIDNIGHT FAME (ML=9/5), #7 GARNET AND GOLD (ML=3/1), #2 LADYS CHANT (ML=6/1),

MIDNIGHT FAME - This mare showed very liitle last time. This thoroughbred ran her best fig in awhile. May bounce and run poorly off that struggle. GARNET AND GOLD - 3/1 is just not enough of a price to take on this entrant. LADYS CHANT - Will not be easy for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the questionable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 KATHLYNS PHALANX on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with 7
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18800 Class Rating: 60

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 24 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MY LUCKY DEIA 3/1
# 3 MACHEN MAYHEM 4/1
# 2 PORTIA'S HOPE 12/1

I think MY LUCKY DEIA is a quite good choice. Looks solid for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races lately. Will most likely come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. MACHEN MAYHEM - Ought to be given consideration for this event if only for the respectable Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last outing. The average class figure of 48 makes this horse hard to beat.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 70

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 14 SNEAKING WHISKEY 8/5
# 6 SHEZA BULL CONCEPT 9/5
# 11 BOOGER BE GONE 10/1

I've got to go with SNEAKING WHISKEY. He must be considered given the very good speed figs. Should be given a shot based on the competitive speed rating garnered in the last outing. Has to be given a chance versus this group of horses displaying competitive figures recently and an average speed figure of 58 under similar conditions. SHEZA BULL CONCEPT - With a solid jock who has won at a very good 19 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top selections. She looks respectable in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:28pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#5 LEVEL UP (ML=5/2)


LEVEL UP - This rider and trainer are dependable together. Win percent when teamed up is tough to top. A wise man taught me to bet on the lone speed horse. Take a look at this horse. Taking a drop in Equibase class figure points from his September 2nd race at Parx Racing. Based on that info, I will give this horse the edge. This gelding has been posting some excellent workout times.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BOOSTER SHOT (ML=4/1), #4 LUCKY LUCKY LUKE (ML=9/2), #7 DANCE A DINI (ML=5/1),

BOOSTER SHOT - I'd like to see better recent efforts with morning line odds of 4/1. LUCKY LUCKY LUKE - No pace in this event to help this rallier's chances. DANCE A DINI - Hasn't been doing anything at all recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 LEVEL UP to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None