Wednesday 9/25/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Breeders' Cup Classic Hopefuls Clash Wednesday AM in Japan

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September 24, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Breeders’ Cup Classic alumni Ushba Tesoro and Derma Sotogake – both prospects for a return date in just over five weeks’ time – square off early Wednesday morning (US time) in the $468,443 Nippon TV Hai Stakes at Japan’s Funabashi Racecourse. The 1-1/8 miles test on dirt goes as Race 11 on the card with a scheduled stateside post time of 7:05 am ET.

Derma Sotogake finshed second in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita, a length behind White Abarrio. He’s looking for his first victory since capturing the March ’23 United Arab Emirate Derby, a race that spring-boarded him to a sixth-place effort in the Kentucky Derby. Ushba Tesoro, fifth in last year’s Classic, is defending champion in the Nippon TV Hai Stakes. His deep resume includes a 2023 Dubai World Cup victory as well as runner-up finishes this spring in the Saudi Cup as well as his title defense in Dubai. Both are currently traded around 25-1 on the international futures markets for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

A total of 13 are entered in Wednesday morning’s Nippon TV Hai Stakes. The 7-year-old Ushba Tesoro is a strong 6-5 favorite in the world pool simulcast with 4-year-old Derma Sotogake the clear second choice at 9-5. No other runner is projected in single digits.

The 12-race card from Funabashi gets underway at 1:40 am ET. Win, Place, Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Superfecta and Omni wagering are available on the featured race with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#8 Warrior on Tap	He hasn't been able to find much late going short through three starts, but he is quicker than he showed last time out and should find a good spot right up near the top in a bad race without much pace.
#5 Blue Soldier	He has had a few chances at this level and hasn't proven to be a huge threat, but he still fits today in a spot without a clear standout. Think his baseline keeps him in the game again.
#4 Starforce	No idea what to do with him -- one day he's about to graduate in special weight company, and the next he's up the track with claimers. He drops again today while in OK form, but I don't really trust him at what might be a short kind of price. Obvious threat.
Race Summary	Warrior On Tap might be able to flash enough pace to take initiative, as he was up on the splits in a couple of those sprint races to kick off his career. More leisurely tempo going long helps his cause?

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#5 Hold the Phone	He's back fresh off the December break after showing a little bit of life in his first two-turn synthetic try at Turfway, and he'll have a bit of additional upside today while racing with Lasix. Think there is a good bit to like today.
#3 Azoi	His better stuff keeps him in the frame with these, but I wouldn't be super excited to be here if he's offering anything like the 9/5 ML price. Danger in his first local try, but I think the top choice has more upside today.
#7 Frozen Four	He's not out of the question, but I worry about his ability to find that final little punch in the late stages of his races. Probably moves into contention again but isn't a sure thing to sustain it for a score.
Race Summary	Hold the Phone gets Lasix while fresh for the first start of his 3-year-old campaign, and he'll get right back to racing two turns on synthetic footing after turning in the best start of his short career in a similar spot late last year.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#3 Bless America	The Aqueduct tries didn't produce much, so it's back to synthetic footing while coming back from the break, and she turned in a few decent efforts at Turfway over the winter. Bounce-back player.
#4 Tarsus Warrior	He's probably a bit overbet while rising to try winners, but he is quick enough to be in the mix early on in a race without a ton of committed front-end speed. Can win right back.
#1 Heavy Pour	Cutback player has a local stakes win going short, so the trip isn't a massive concern, but I'm a tiny bit worried about the trip he'll get from the inside if he has to hustle for position early.
Race Summary	Bless America hasn't shown anything yet since facing winners, but those tries both came over surfaces on which she is unproven, and I think she'll manage something better with this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#4 JOHN’S PROMISE (7-2)	Likes Delaware, plays to a steady beat in sprints, price goes up.
#7 BALTASAR (9-5)	Posted big numbers in win and near miss for higher tags this year.
#8 POSITIVELY AWESOME (6-1)	Won with Centeno, can sit a good stalking trip from the outside.
Race Summary	JOHN’S PROMISE, 12 of 20 in the money at 6F, runs for Mena, fits the conditions well and can be excused for his last race. He will offer better value than usual with BALTASAR drawing the bulk of the attention. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#9 MERGING TRAFFIC (10-1)	Good comeback try on the lawn, added ground should help.
#1 BOUNTEOUS (5-2)	New York invader runs for cheapest tag, tries turf for first time since gelded.
#5 ICANDOTHAT (12-1)	Handled transition from the jumps to the flats before, use in gimmicks.
Race Summary	MERGING TRAFFIC made a rail run before he angled 4-wide for the stretch drive and finished third behind the even-money winner and 2-1 second choice at one mile. The lightly-raced 5-year-old can spring an upset if he improved in his second start this year. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-9 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#5 PRIZE DEBATE (12-1)	Will be running late, worth a longshot stab on the class rise.
#6 PUDD’N N PIE (5-2)	Won 4 of her last 6 starts, three as the favorite, now returns to claim level.
#2 ANSWER THE CALL (7-2)	Hard-ridden while chasing the winner through fast splits, finished evenly.
Race Summary	PRIZE DEBATE couldn’t reach the pace-controlling winner at one mile, but she earned the top speed figure of her career in a 6F victory with Curtis aboard three starts prior. She will get plenty of pace to run at, so make a win and place bet or play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 3	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5) * PICK 6 WITH CARRYOVER ($1 Minimum: Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $11,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $18,100 • Post: 1:58P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 25, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BEACH BOY AL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MORNIN G CUP: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MR PHIL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GIMMEDAMONEY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BOSS HOLIDAY: Today is a spr int and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
5	BEACH BOY AL	6/1	4/1
3	MORNING CUP	2/1	6/1
4	MR PHIL	7/2	9/1
2	GIMMEDAMONEY	5/2	9/1
1	BOSS HOLIDAY	9/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	MR PHIL	4	7/2	Front-runner	91	81	65.4	72.2	66.7
1	BOSS HOLIDAY	1	9/2	Front-runner	84	79	60.6	74.6	65.6
3	MORNING CUP	3	2/1	Alternator/Front-runner	85	85	83.4	76.6	71.1
2	GIMMEDAMONEY	2	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	88	83	67.4	75.8	67.8
6	BARFLY	6	8/1	Stalker	77	73	55.6	69.8	61.3
5	BEACH BOY AL	5	6/1	Trailer	88	92	44.2	81.6	76.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 8	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 4:00P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $7,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. CLEVER TIGER is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CLEVER TIGER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. WEMBY: Horse has run a Good Race withi n the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GRAND BEY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SWAY'SINMYDNA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
4	CLEVER TIGER	4/1	4/1
2	WEMBY	2/1	6/1
7	GRAND BEY	8/1	6/1
6	SWAY'SINMYDNA	3/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	WEMBY	2	2/1	Stalker	75	75	83.4	64.8	58.3
4	CLEVER TIGER	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	80	86.0	71.6	64.6
7	GRAND BEY	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	69	66.0	68.2	61.7
6	SWAY'SINMYDNA	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	70	54.0	60.8	55.8
1	SOUTHERN PASS TIME	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	64	80.4	50.3	37.8
3	TEAM TRAVIS	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	62	72.5	55.8	49.8
5	HAVE NO REGRETS	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	59	52.8	49.8	38.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 WEEKEND CONCERTO 5/2
# 2 SPERANZAS WILL 3/1
# 1 MEROKEE 7/2

WEEKEND CONCERTO figures to be the bet in here. Looks respectable against this group of animals and will most likely be one of the leaders. The speed figure of 74 from his most recent race looks quite good in here. Should be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. SPERANZAS WILL - He ought to be considered given the very good speed figures. With Morales getting the mount, watch out for this pony. MEROKEE - Posted a quite good speed rating last time out. Have to bet on this gelding with the sound earnings per start in dirt sprint races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #4 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#7 LITTLE ROCKY (ML=8/1)
#2 MOKINGS (ML=9/2)
#5 SMARTY ALEX (ML=7/2)
#6 GUITAR BOY (ML=5/1)


LITTLE ROCKY - Don't often see a beneficial ROI like +71. This rider/handler pair has done well together over the last twelve months. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid effort on Aug 28th. Last out on the grass, this horse was solid. Anything close right here, and this one should win. This gelding's last speed fig is strong enough to score here, I'll bet on him right back in today's event. MOKINGS - When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. I like a thoroughbred that manages to land in the top three as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a solid race in the last race within the last month or so. SMARTY ALEX - There's something to be said for a change of surface. Last race this equine didn't like the terrain, but if you look two back on the grass at Louisiana Downs, there was a great effort. I look for that again today. Wilson brings him right back. I propose you stay with this hot gelding. GUITAR BOY - This thoroughbred coming off a good performance in the last thirty days is a contender in my humble opinion. You always have to be on the lookout for bankroll building jock/conditioner duos; we have one right here. It looks like Navamarin had to know this gelding on September 9th when riding him for the initial time. Back atop again today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 YOU VEE CEE (ML=6/1),

YOU VEE CEE - The pace scenario just isn't too promising for this speed merchant. Many other ponies would have to scratch to promote his chances.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - LITTLE ROCKY - Registering a speed figure of 89 two back and then following up with a rating of 91 last race on Aug 6th, this gelding is ready to do some damage.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #7 LITTLE ROCKY on the nose if you can get odds of 6/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7] Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18300 Class Rating: 72

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 25. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 PECKS NOT BAD 4/1
# 7 PRIVATE DRIVE 5/1
# 9 JOSH'N 6/1

I favor PECKS NOT BAD here. May best this field here, showing formidable numbers of late. Trainer boasts solid win figures at this distance and surface. Toledo will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out quickly in this contest. PRIVATE DRIVE - This animal could stun this field at a big price. Is tough not to consider given the company run in recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:15pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#1 AWESOME HONOR (ML=20/1)
#7 PERFECT MOON (ML=5/2)
#5 PUNCTUALITY (ML=9/2)


AWESOME HONOR - You always have to be on the watch for revenue generating rider/conditioner teams; we have one right here. I like to see fast morning activity. This gelding's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Always watch out for the longer priced animal when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. PERFECT MOON - After the contest aboard this horse on September 9th, the jock is going to be acquainted with the gelding much better. Barbaran brings him back again. I suggest you stay with this strong gelding. PUNCTUALITY - In the last race at Mountaineer Park this animal finished ahead of today's morning line choice. Potential play if the public follows the M/L odds. Possibly a peak effort for this gelding today. Been getting closer and the finish with each recent start. Cordero-Lopez brings him right back. I advocate you stay with this hot gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TIZAWINNER (ML=7/2), #4 TIMO (ML=4/1), #3 DEVIL'S CANYON (ML=6/1),

TIZAWINNER - If you keep selecting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed often. Tough for me to be betting on this sort of maiden breaker. TIMO - You always think this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he falters often. DEVIL'S CANYON - 6/1 is too short of a value to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 AWESOME HONOR on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,5,7] with [1,5,7] with [1,4,5,6,7] with [1,4,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36