Friday 9/27/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:35 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 9/27/24

September 27, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita 1st Race – Post: 1:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Prime Gamble: 4-Acquitted
Other Contenders: 1-Comeback Girl; 5-What About Q; 8-Donttellourwives

Forecast: The first timers look okay (not great) in this wide open maiden juvenile grass dash, so perhaps a filly with a bit of prior experience will have an edge. Acquitted always has trained like a decent prospect but she’s been disappointing in her first two outings, so she may be hard to trust. Still, the daughter of Into Mischief continues to look like a decent type in the morning – most recently in a solo training track breeze in (5f, 1:00.3h TT) over the Tapeta surface – so there’s a reasonable expectation that she’ll be effective on grass. The R. Mandella-trained filly lands top rider J. Hernandez, so we’re willing to give her one more chance under the assumption that she’ll show her best stuff in her first outing on the lawn. Her morning line (4-1) reflects the race’s lack of depth, so we’ll make her a reasonable play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita – 7th race - Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Prime Gamble: 7-Uncle Happy.
Other Contenders: 6-Curlin’s Kaos.

Forecast: The most logical winner in this first level allowance affair is Curlin’s Kaos, fresh from a runaway big figure score in the state-bred Real Good Deal Stakes at Del Mar in early August. That race was sprinting on dirt while today’s assignment is a two-turn miler on grass, but if he can handle the change in surface and distance, the son of Clubhouse Ride can justify his short price. However, from a gambling standpoint, Uncle Happy has a solid chance at much better odds, so we’ll make the progressive son of Runhappy a play in the straight pool and the main push in the various rolling exotics. His Beyer speed figures have risen dramatically since arriving from Texas and joining the P. D’Amato stable, and in a race that projects to have modest early fractions he could become the controlling speed and never look back. Second in his local debut after leading until deep stretch, the sophomore gelding has trained well in the interim and is likely to produce another forward move, so the strategy is to double the race on our ticket and then press aggressively with Uncle Happy on top.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:36 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

September 27, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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The Red Mile has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $7,500 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (2:35 PM EST)

1-Lady Landia (9/5)-The Svanstedt pupil had some success on the East coast versus tough customers. Has a breaking issue and should stand tall down the lane if stays flat.
4-Duvet (9-1)-Team Miller filly comes off a sharp win but this gal also has an issue staying on stride. The price should be right to take a swing and could benefit from a cozy trip if minds its manners.
5-Kadena (2-1)-One-move type needed to be used more than once last time and had no pop down the stretch. This is a consistent check casher, and Dexter Dunn can beat this group if he pushes the button at the right time.

Race 7 (2:54 PM EST)

3-Delray Beach (5-1)-Winner of 3 straight steps up to face tougher. Deserves the opportunity, doesn't appear out of place, and should offer a fair price.
6-Banderas (2-1)-Cashed checks against tough freshman in the Metro series at Mohawk. Should be a main player and this race might go through the Alagna pupil.

Race 8 (3:13 PM EST)

2-Delaney Hanover (4/5)-The Wallin trainee makes its Lex debut and raced evenly in the Doherty Memorial at HoP. The 4/5 beaten chalk started from post 8 and will look for Todd McCarthy to be racing near the top of the stack early in the mile. Has won 2 of 4 facing some top 2-year-old fillies on the East coast. Lands in a good spot, meets a beatable field and could fly down the long Hoosier stretch.

Race 9 (3:32 PM EST)

4-American Son (2-1)-This is a talented Ryder pupil that doesn't appear all that easy to drive but being green isn't a crime. Likes to go fast, when put into gear lands on the point and sets a hot pace. Has won 3 of 6 lifetime starts and in the other 2 races not relaxing some on the lead probably hurt chances for a picture. Dunn should be able to get on the engine without setting a sizzling pace and should have a good chance of staying strong to the wire.

$4.00 Early Pick 4

1,4,5/3,6/2/4
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:37 AM

Santa Anita Pick 4 for Friday, Sept. 27

September 27, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

SANTA ANITA PICK 4
Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

The opening day crowd at Santa Anita’s Fall Meet the Friday will be able to see for miles on end. All four races in the Late Pick 4 sequence – two on turf and two on the main track – will be contested at that distance. Here’s a closer look with a suggested $1 play and a $36 ticket:
SA 6th race (6:30 p.m. EST) -- PURE MADNESS will be a solo play on a lot of tickets in this Cal-bred allowance. He just won under the same condition to go 2-for-2 on turf, sandwiched around a stakes-place showing on the Del Mar dirt at 7F. He couldn’t gain on 6-1 upsetter Curlin’s Chaos (3-10, $258k), who was put on the lead for the first time in his career and improved his top Beyer speed figure from 77 to 96. The drawback is that eight other runners exited that stakes race, with only one third-place effort to show for it. His likely target today will be rail-sitter PURE CHAOS, a consistent and well-bet sprinter who improved in his second start off a 3-plus month layoff when he started the year with blinkers on.
SA 7th race (7:00 p.m. EST) -- Take a cue from Pure Madness in the sixth race when assessing the aforementioned CURLIN’S CHAOS is this $80,000 optional claiming race on the turf. He can make maximum use of his speed if the same tactics are likely employed, but he can come from off the pace, if necessary, as his two previous one-mile turf victories prove. No matter, UNCLE HAPPY is the top pick in here. He shipped to Del Mar, coming off a repeat victory in a double key turf allowance at Lone Star Park and didn’t disappoint, shaking off the co-favorite on the second turn, only to get caught by the early trailer. He figures up close throughout on the cutback in distance. PROMISSIO, a two-time winner on the Santa Anita lawn this year, rallied for three thirds in his last four starts. He finished a length behind UNCLE HAPPY after he was ‘ping-ponged’ at the start and ran up on heels on the backstretch while 3-wide. His fate could hinge on the pace, but at least the price is right to use him on the ticket.
SA 8th race (7:30 p.m. EST) -- FLY THE SKY has had his share of trouble lines, but he gets class relief, changes jockeys and shows a flashy :47.2 workout since his last start as he seeks his first win on dirt. MONTANA appears an all-or-nothing type play, running for cheapest tag of his career in this $10,000 claimer. He lost by a combined 40 lengths in his last two starts, but had three wins and two near misses in his prior eight races at Santa Anita, all but one at one mile. VANZZY, stakes-placed on conventional dirt early in his career, was unlucky in his second start on the surface since the 2020 Grade 3 Withers. He was 3- to 5-wide most of the way after stumbling badly at the start but managed to finish second behind the front-end winner.
SA 9th race (8:00 p.m. EST) -- I’LLHAVEANOTHERWON returns home after a useful turf-to-dirt debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where he spotted the field a couple lengths at the break, appeared to dislike the slop while trailing to the far turn, but showed some willingness thereafter. His dam, Doctor Carina, was 22/5-3-4 on the grass and a $105k earner. WASTING ACES continues to improve and appears sitting on a maiden victory. He was unhurried for a half-mile last out, advanced into the turn, waited for a seam to run through and got up 5-wide to finish third. He can turn the tables on morning-line favorite BLAME THE CLASSIC, who got the jump and finished second at 1-1/16 miles.

Suggested $1 Ticket
SA 6th Race: 1, 5
SA 7th Race: 5, 6, 7
SA 8th Race: 3, 6, 7
SA 9th Race: 7, 9
Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:39 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #1

#7 Evocation	She's back up in class for this one after a good effort for $10,000, and I think she's going to land a perfect trip on the cutback while tracking a few slightly more committed pace players early on. Tough.
#1 Starcourt	She's now down for less than half the claim price after the turf start didn't produce anything, but I worry she's going to get a tricky run of things from the fence while trying to find a good spot near the top. Wouldn't be a surprise to see her air, but I'm torn.
#6 Vibe Check	She might have some ability to get past horses late in a race without much other finishing punch, and this is a pretty decent class drop for her, so she might wake up in a hurry.
Race Summary	Evocation turns back a couple furlongs, and that cutback pace should leave her in a great spot tracking the speed. She should fit fine on the rise.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#1 Piquant	Nothing big to write home about in the debut, but that even kind of run could translate well while adding a couple furlongs at second asking. Threat for a top team.
#11 Publisher	Same kind of story for this guy -- obvious upside off a useful but unremarkable debut run. Might wind up in a decent spying spot with the added eighth today.
#5 American Promise	He stepped forward a bit in the second career start when getting a mile at Saratoga, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him make a break for it in a race without any proven pace.
Race Summary	Piquant and Publisher have similar second-out profiles, and I'd want American Promise on the plays in case he's able to speed pop this group.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#3 Let's Duet	She's capable of something way better than she showed last time out, and the team is probably hoping this even longer trip will allow her grinding finishing style to work a bit better. Plugs along late to land it?
#6 Take Shape	She's got the same kind of pressing style as a handful of others in here, so her inability to see out those last two after leading in the lane is a cause for a little concern for me based on the likely price. Obvious threat, but could be vulnerable late.
#8 Broughty Ferry	She's a reliable midpack finisher who can probably get the jump on some of the deeper closers while watching the pressing types settle their early scores.
Race Summary	Let's Duet turned in a dud here in June and just returns now, but some of her back efforts at Oaklawn make her appear competitive with this group, and the longer trip probably works in her favor.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:39 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1

#7 WHAT ABOUT Q (7-2)	Good company lines, good turf sprint to summon, good value play.
#2 YAANI (8-1)	Like the :47-1/5 gate work Aug. 25 for the $400k sales buy, turf the question.
#8 DONTTELLOURWIVES (5-1)	Solid 5F work tab, dam went wire-to-wire in her turf debut.
Race Summary	WHAT ABOUT Q angled from the 4-path to the rail and ‘kept trying’ when third in her debut on the Santa Anita turf behind a first-out 6-to-1 winner. She chased a fast pace in the 4-path on Del Mar’s speed-favoring main track before tiring last out. Bet to win and place.

Santa Anita - Race #2

#1 DR. RAY D (7-2)	Awaited room on backside, rallied into fast pace on rail, ran third despite drifting.
#7 BELLA VIENNA (7-2)	Speed she showed here in the spring would make her dangerous in this spot.
#3 WHIMSICAL HEIR (7-5)	Won going away in pair of dirt sprints at Santa Anita earlier this year.
Race Summary	DR. RAY D, in a bit tight on the backstretch run, launched a rail bid on the turn and finished willingly in the 3-path in a shorter sprint. She starts from the rail today and can upgrade to a win in her second start off a two-month rest. Bet to win and place and play a 1,7/1,3,7/ALL trifecta.

Santa Anita - Race #4

#6 STICK SHIFT (8-1)	Has ingredients to pull off an upset in second start off nine-month layoff.
#3 CAPTAIN CHOOCHIES (5-1)	Steady check-getter with plenty of one-mile experience.
#2 BEARINGS (8-5)	Makes cross-country trip after troubled second at Saratoga behind runaway fave.
Race Summary	There’s a lot to like about longshot STICK SHIFT in this one-mile maiden claimer: his trainer, Doug O’Neill, wins at a high-percentage with Maiden Special Weight class droppers; his sire, Mendelssohn, was a Grade 1-winning miler, albeit on turf; and his :46-1/5 workout September 24 on Santa Anita’s all-weather track equaled that of Zona Verde, who ran third in the Del Mar Oaks. Above all, his price is right for a win and place wager and a 2-3-6 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Santa Anita All Turf Pick 3
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3-5 • CR: 87 • Purse: $54,000 • Post: 5:00P
SA - R9 - (RAIL AT 30 FEET). FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BLAME THE CLASSIC: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. WHATS THE BUZZ: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FIGHT BACK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WASTING ACES: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surf ace. HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	BLAME THE CLASSIC	5/2	6/1
10	WHATS THE BUZZ	30/1	6/1
8	FIGHT BACK	7/2	6/1
9	WASTING ACES	6/1	7/1
6	HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER	6	10/1	Front-runner	85	80	90.3	74.0	67.0
11	DANZING FOREST	11	6/1	Front-runner	83	88	84.1	84.1	76.1
3	CAUGHT IN THE DARK	3	30/1	Front-runner	0	0	53.8	53.8	37.3
5	BLAME THE CLASSIC	5	5/2	Stalker	88	87	87.5	83.6	77.6
4	KISS FOR LULU	4	9/2	Stalker	85	72	72.1	68.7	50.7
8	FIGHT BACK	8	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	89	85	79.9	82.5	74.5
9	WASTING ACES	9	6/1	Trailer	89	86	74.5	78.3	69.8
7	I'LLHAVEANOTHERWON	7	5/1	Trailer	0	0	33.2	60.7	41.7
10	WHATS THE BUZZ	10	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	88	87	84.6	81.2	73.7
2	TOPPERS WAGER	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	69	79.0	73.4	61.4
1	FLEET BROTATO	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	70	63.6	68.9	50.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park
PURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 6	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 6-7) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 cent PICK 5 (Races 6-7-8-9-10) $1.00 JACKPOT SUPER HIGH 5
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 103 • Purse: $53,000 • Post: 3:12P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED/STATE SIRED OR STATE CERTIFIED RACE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000-$32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $32,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. POINT DUME is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * POINT DUME: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). REAL TALK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. BYK: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the la st 30 days.
11	POINT DUME	8/1	9/2
7	MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT	12/1	5/1
9	REAL TALK	7/2	7/1
8	BYK	20/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	POINT DUME	11	8/1	Front-runner	99	94	109.6	92.4	81.9
8	BYK	8	20/1	Front-runner	86	91	95.6	83.2	70.7
7	MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT	7	12/1	Front-runner	101	96	91.6	88.8	81.8
9	REAL TALK	9	7/2	Front-runner	102	95	82.8	90.2	77.2
5	DON'T GET CAUGHT	5	15/1	Front-runner	76	77	66.5	70.8	51.3
2	ON THE MARK	2	12/1	Stalker	93	84	84.4	86.0	78.0
1	ODINSON	1	12/1	Stalker	93	92	84.1	88.4	74.9
4	FREEZE THE FIRE	4	8/1	Stalker	98	102	78.8	87.2	81.7
3	CATAHOULA MOON	3	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	103	99	75.0	90.2	79.2
6	CIRCLE P	6	4/1	Trailer	96	93	61.6	84.0	71.5
10	COLLABORATE	10	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	100	96	56.8	82.8	66.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 32

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 MR. ZORRO 2/1
# 2 MO'S BIZZNESS 4/1
# 5 SHARP ANGEL 10/1

I have to support MR. ZORRO here. I like the jockey on this colt - formidable chance to win the contest. Santiago has an excellent ROI over the past 30 days (+29) which should probably help players with this pick. This entrant has been consistently racing well lately. SHARP ANGEL - Should go off at a nice price and has some positive things going for him.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Meadowlands - Race #6 - Post: 9:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#1 REDFIRE (ML=9/2)
#7 LAST GLORY (ML=10/1)

REDFIRE - This filly is in nice form, having run a strong race on Sep 14th, finishing second. LAST GLORY - Arenas has this filly going in the ideal race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BLIND SPEED (ML=7/2), #10 SOGNARE (ML=4/1), #3 SUNNYRIDGE JAIME (ML=5/1),

BLIND SPEED - You should normally bet against morning-line choices that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last few weeks. SOGNARE - This entrant will most likely be way back as this bunch crosses the finish line. SUNNYRIDGE JAIME - Hard to keep chasing this kind of 'hanger' horse. Don't feel this pony will make an impact in today's event. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's class rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 REDFIRE on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $35500 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING OR IOWA BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 27, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BRAHMS IMAGE 10/1
# 5 GOLDEN LUNA 2/1
# 2 THE HOOF 7/2

I like BRAHMS IMAGE for this event and is a very good value-based bet given the 10/1 line. He looks strong in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. With a formidable 86 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. I expect a formidable performance from this equine whose trainer has one of the best ROI percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. GOLDEN LUNA - Jordan has him trained soundly to break quickly out of the gate. Always hard to beat Jordan and Jordan working together, winning 16 percent of their races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,700 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#3 AUNT RUTH (ML=2/1)

AUNT RUTH - Looking at today's class rating, this campaigner is up against an easier bunch than last out at Belterra Park. That 67 fig this mare notched in her last clash tells me she's a key player this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 YOGURT (ML=3/1), #4 ABOUNDING (ML=7/2), #5 LUNAR ICE (ML=4/1),

YOGURT - Not likely that the speed fig she notched on September 12th will be enough in this clash. ABOUNDING - Finished third in her most recent race with a somewhat easily forgotten rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. LUNAR ICE - This steed hasn't been close at the finish line lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 AUNT RUTH on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None