Saturday 9/28/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-26-2024, 06:19 AM

Race of the Week: California Crown at Santa Anita | Saturday

September 25, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Momentum from last week's $870 Princess Rooney Stakes score in this space carries into the inaugural California Crown at Santa Anita. The 1-1/8 miles feature matches Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and Classic hopefuls as the main event on a card that also includes $750,000 supporting grass stakes in the Eddie D and John Henry Turf Championship, as well as the City of Hope Mile in the role of the nightcap.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can play for an additional 5 Million 1/ST Rewards Points on various multi-race wagers throughout the opening weekend of the Santa Anita meet. Those wagers include a special two-day daily double matching the California Crown to Sunday's Zenyatta Stakes.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners NATIONAL TREASURE, NEWGATE, MUTH and SENOR BUSCADOR are proven at the level. SUBSANADOR is a Grade 1 winner in South America and Grade 1-placed domestically. Several of these match up very evenly in terms of class and schedule strength.

Pace:
NATIONAL TREASURE has been sent to the front in nearly all of his important races and should be quickest of these in a race that lacks serious other pace. MUTH figures to get a first-over trip with SUBSANADOR in close attendance. The latter is the key to the pace as the former pair or Bob Baffert stablemates who won't be battling one another to submission if ridden to expected instruction. The pace should be very comfortable for those near the front.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-NEWGATE: Santa Anita Handicap winner returns from a March layoff and trip to Dubai that came up empty. Decent sort looks to be the lesser of the Baffert trio here compared to National Treasure and Muth. Chance for a share, but a victory would surprise.

#2-SUBSANADOR: Made front in Santa Anita Handicap with cozy 1:12 opening three-quarters, but expect them to go quicker Saturday as this is a stronger field over a shorter trip. Exits his best US try in winning the Iselin at Monmouth and now picks up 6 pounds while facing tougher. Peg him for the minor awards.

#3-NATIONAL TREASURE: The 8-5 morning line favorite has won the Pegasus World Cup and Met Mile on the road this year, but has yet to win from 5 tries at Santa Anita. But his home track losses include a nose decision in the Breeders' Cup Mile to champ Cody's Wish, so it's not like he's incapable of running a big one over this surface. He has a pace edge and it's difficult to fault anything Flavien Prat has done in the saddle all season. Horse to beat should bounce back from poor effort on wet track in Whitney (he's consistently struggled on off tracks).

#4-KATONAH: Lackluster seventh in a weak renewal of the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, the multiple Santa Anita allowance winner should be a big price for Doug O'Neill. Popped second in the San Diego at 22-1 when under the radar 2 starts ago and will need a big leap forward to contend.

#5-MUTH: 3-year-old faces older horses for the first time, but long has been considered one of the leaders of his crop. Only loss in 4 Santa Anita starts was a runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and his sophomore season has been flawless in winning the San Vicente, Arkansas Derby and Shared Belief over 3 different tracks. Trip may be tricky having to do the dirty work against stablemate National Treasure if that one winds up lone speed as seems likely. His BRIS late pace figures are stronger than National Treasure, lending hope he can forge past if patiently handled.

#6-SENOR BUSCADOR: Late-running veteran has bagged more than $12.7 million lifetime (ranking among the top 10 all-time North American-based money earners). Nearly all of that came in winning the $20 million Saudi Cup and finishing third in the $12 million Dubai World Cup on a wild February-March road trip. Ran a non-threatening third in this race last year when it was named the Awesome Again Stakes behind a decent pace. This doesn't look as quick or conducive for him.

#7-INDISPENSABLE: Even though it took 9 starts to break his maiden, this 3-year-old came right back to run a credible second in Del Mar's Shared Belief (2 lengths behind Cali Crown rival Muth). He's making fair progress but would need to make another major leap forward to contend for a trifecta spot here. He gets an 8-pound weight break from the favorite, which never hurts.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
The only start NATIONAL TREASURE hasn't finished in the superfecta on fast dirt was the 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes. He's got a pace edge here and fast track forecasted.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
INDISPENSABLE may be the best finisher of the horses at a price and could land the bottom of a super.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Chalky in-race projection for me, so the value is built from the Race 8 California Crown Eddie D Stakes into this one. $75 daily double FIRST PEACE to NATIONAL TREASURE. $25 daily double FIRST PEACE to MUTH.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 06:38 AM

Jeremy Plonk: 18 Saturday Stakes in 18 Sentences

September 26, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Forgive me, Ozzy Osbourne, but we’re going off the rails on a crazy train this Saturday. A whopping 18 stakes are in my focus, including the inaugural California Crown at Santa Anita. Here goes (in chronological order):

1. Belmont at the Big A Race 4, 1:38 pm ET | Skippylongstocking looks almost too simple in a 4-horse Woodward as potential lone speed from the rail, but #2 Crupi’s win in last fall’s Discovery over this same track, distance, nearly same field size and projected trip is a winning blueprint.

2. Belmont at the Big A Race 6, 2:40 pm ET | The one time #6 Silver Knott got some give in the ground, he blew away his competition like I suspect he will Saturday when the beloved mare War Like Goddess is denied a third straight victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic.

3. Laurel Park Race 6, 2:54 pm ET | The Selima focus for me will be #4 Correto, who won her debut at Kentucky Downs (and that’s not easy), and is a half-sister to $1.3M earning turf router Spooky Channel.

4. Laurel Park Race 8, 3:54 pm ET | Mike Maker’s defending Japan Turf Cup winner Yamato is back, but hasn’t raced since, leaving 2-time local stakes winner #5 Dataman the most appealing option for Graham Motion.

5. Belmont at the Big A Race 9, 4:14 pm ET | The Vosburgh could be a coming out party for #2 Scotland, who has always hinted at talent and finally showed that kind of stuff in his Saratoga allowance win.

6. Laurel Park Race 9, 4:24 pm ET | #8 Studlydoright has been sharp on the back end of his dirt sprints, and while the Laurel Futurity is a turf route, note that his dam Peach of A Gal was a 2-turn turf stakes winner in her racing days.

7. Gulfstream Park Race 9, 5:08 pm ET | This doesn’t look like a Hollywood Beach that has had some success spring-boarding Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint prospects in its short history, but #8 Most Handsome may prove best after re-gaining interest midway through his debut victory.

8. Belmont at the Big A 11, 5:17 pm ET | With Anticipation winner Zulu Kingdom will be a solid favorite in the Pilgrim without a real knock, but Irad-Pletcher aim to win this race for a fourth straight year and may be a decent price with first-time-turf chance #1 Noble Confessor.

9. Santa Anita Race 5, 5:35 pm ET | Downhill turf sprints like the Unzip Me Stakes often are decided by trip, and the wide post (clean path) and presence of top SA turf sprint jockey Flavien Prat gives eastern-based #11 Toupie the nod.

10. Woodbine Race 9, 5:30 pm ET | #5 Paramount Prince has run 1-2 with Stanley House already in this meet's Dominion Day and Seagram Cup, and that looks almost inevitable again in Saturday's 5-runner Durham Cup.

11. Santa Anita Race 7, 6:37 pm ET | Likely California Crown John Henry Turf Championship favorite Gold Phoenix was fifth in this race as the 6-5 favorite last year when in arguably better form, so let’s roll with improving,
course/distance winner #3 Divin Propos for the upset on the class rise.

12. Santa Anita Race 8, 7:07 pm ET | Tab downhill turf sprint specialist #2 First Peace (5: 2-3-0) in the California Crown Eddie D., a race in which eastern shipper Big Invasion will take all the money while trying something completely new.

13. Santa Anita Race 9, 7:43 pm ET | Difficult to get a good read on the 3 Bafferts in the $1 million California Crown, but the pace edge appears to be with #3 National Treasure and we’ll see if he can outlast #5 Muth over 9 furlongs.

14. Canterbury Park Race 7, 8:10 pm ET | The Shakopee Juvenile Overnight favorite may be blowout local debut winner Indie Freedom, but I much prefer #8 Don’t Fly Stand By via Prairie Meadows, who showed a finishing kick over a track that often tilts heavily to speed.

15. Santa Anita Race 10, 8:15 pm ET | #3 Johannes figures to be one of the most trustworthy favorites of the day in the City of Hope Mile, where he’s 5-for-5 at Santa Anita and 3-for-3 this year.

16. Prairie Meadows Race 10, 8:51 pm ET | While several in this Iowa Breeders’ Derby have taken turns beating one another, the consistency and recent open-company experience of #3 Dawson’s Storm makes the 2-1 morning line favorite the most likely winner.

17. Churchill Downs Race 8, 9:37 pm ET | Speedball #7 Saudi Crown draws beautifully in the outside post 7 for the Ack Ack and should have no excuses with little other pace pressure projected..

18. Churchill Downs Race 10, 10:40 pm ET | Give me 20-1 morning line bomber #1 Stilleto Boy in the Lukas Classic as he goes second off the layoff, turf-to-dirt and sprint-to-route all in a single swoop that could put him right into the mix from the start.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2024, 06:39 AM

Scott Shapiro: Belmont at the Big A Saturday Plays

September 26, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The national stakes action kicks off in New York on Saturday where Aqueduct has a big card that includes a pair of “Win and you’re in” Breeders’ Cup events, as well as the $400K Woodward (G2). Here are my thoughts on the stakes events, as well as a colt I like to kick off the day.

Race 1:

#4 Hands of Time makes his third career start for trainer Christophe Clement after two runs at Saratoga this summer. The son of Liam’s Map took significant support in both tries in upstate New York and ran well, especially when you consider he was not overly comfortable in either start. Joel Rosario did what he could after a slow break on debut, but he did his mount no favors in his second career start when he broke well, but strangled back Hands of Time causing him to fight his rider early on. Once he settled down, he showed some talent to finish third. This time around, I am hopeful Rosario will let him roll from the gate. If so, he should be tough to deny in his first start over the Aqueduct sod.

Pick: #4 Hands of Time

Race 4: Woodward (G2)

Unfortunately, value is nearly impossible to find in this year’s Woodward since not only is #1 Skippylongstocking the fastest, most-accomplished horse, but he also appears to have a pace advantage over his four rivals. The son of Exaggerator has failed when encountering the top tier of the handicap division, but when he has tackled those a cut below, he has been dominant. This is evidenced by his nearly $2.9M earned through 26 starts. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee finds another favorable spot here where I have no interest in trying to beat him.

Pick: #1 Skippylongstocking

Race 6: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1)

#7 Far Bridge surprised everyone last month at Saratoga when he went to the lead in the Sword Dancer (G1) and held off the two favorites at 8-1 under Joel Rosario. With #1 Get Smokin and #3 Emmanuel in this spot, it is highly unlikely that the English Channel colt is on the front end again on Saturday, but that is not an issue. The Lsu Stables runner has been at his best coming from off the pace and hopefully gets a bit overlooked in the wagering since he had things so easy up top last month

Pick: #7 Far Bridge

Race 9: Vosburgh (G3)

A spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint is on the line in this $250k event at seven furlongs over the main track where I like #3 Baby Yoda. The 6YO gelding failed to hit the board in two starts this summer at Saratoga, but those came against tougher fields than he encounters in this year’s Vosburgh. The Bill Mott trainee should get a favorable pocket trip under Dylan Davis, which should allow the Florida-bred to get the best of this bunch in the lane.

Pick: #3 Baby Yoda

Race 11: Pilgrim (G2)

The second of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races in New York on Saturday offers up a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. It should be no surprise that trainer Chad Brown has two of the logicals in this year’s Pilgrim, but it is trainer Todd Pletcher, not Brown who has dominated this race of late. Pletcher has won it the last three years and will try to do so once again with first-time turfer #1 Noble Confessor. I respect the Quality Road colt’s chances, as well as #4 Zulu Kingdom and #8 Early Adopter but, I prefer #5 Concord Green. The Stuart S Janney III homebred got out of the gates slow in his debut at Saratoga in mid-August, but showed a lot of professionalism throughout. This allowed jockey Dylan Davis to sit and wait until he found clear sailing. Once he did, the well-bred son of War Front did the rest getting up at odds of 13-1. I expect a move forward here in his first start versus winners.

Pick: #5 Concord Green

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:53 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 9/28/24

September 28, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

__________________________________________________ _____________________
Santa Anita 4th Race – Post: 2:04 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Prime Gamble: 5-Ready to Pounce
Other Contenders: 3-Pony Express.

Forecast: Trainer J. Sadler has two strong contenders in this main track miler for entry level allowance older horses, the speedy front-runner #3 Pony Express, and his recent $25,000 claim #5 Ready to Pounce, a highly rated winner from $25,000 foes last time. Though moving up considerable in class for his new connections, ‘Pounce has an ideal second flight, stalking style that should be quite effective due to the projected race shape (fast early), and if he can duplicate his most recent performance he should be difficult to deny right back. Winning rider H. Berrios stays aboard, so we’re anticipating a solid gamble at or near his morning line of 3-1. His stable mate probably is worth including in the exotics as well on the chance that he can get loose on the lead over a track that generally is kind to speed.

__________________________________________________ _____________________
Santa Anita – 5th race - Post: 2:35 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Prime Gamble: 1-Dreamfyre
Other Contenders: 11-Toupie

Forecast: Dreamyfire didn’t pick an easy spot for her comeback in this year’s edition of the Unzip Me Stakes but the speedy sophomore filly showed last year she can fire fresh (she won her debut) and earned speed figures in a pair of graded stakes victories that make her a strong fit in her first start despite tackling older foes for the first time her first outing since last November. The rail post in these Hillside sprints isn’t ideal but the daughter of Flameway should be quick enough to be on lead the lead and then hopefully proceed to go one and wire the field. Her comeback workouts up north should have her fit and ready, so at around 5-1 or so she’ll offer excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various exotics. Sharp Saratoga shipper Toupie is genuine and consistent and is worth including somewhere on your ticket as well.

__________________________________________________ _____________________
Santa Anita 6th Race – Post: 3:04 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Prime Gamble: 5-Going Deep
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Going North finished a promising second in her debut in June and returns today for new connections following a private purchase and a series of recent workouts that indicate she’s probably a much better type now. The daughter of Bodexpress was a bit green through the lane but stayed on gamely to be beaten just a length while well clear of the rest in a good race for the level, so with that bit of experience behind her and three months of physical development since the D. O’Neill-trained juvenile filly should be set for an explosive performance. She’s 2-1 on the morning line and worth every bit of that if you can get it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:53 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 28, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway wraps up the week with a 12-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

3-Sky Box (6-1)-Won going gate to wire on 7-18 at YR, and fits with this group. Gets a positive driver change in Jordan Stratton, could offer a square price, and looking for an aggressive steer.
4-Victor Laszlo (4-1)-Victor's form has slipped in the last few but has battled tough customers all year. Should get off the gate in good shape and this is a pot to wake up.
6-Sister Mary Maude (2-1)-Program chalk has banked over $225,000 this year. Has hit the board in 3 of 4 races at YR but hasn't taken a picture. Hs been off 20 days, not sure if that helps, but it is difficult to leave the Burke entry off the ticket.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

5-Funatthebeach N (2-1)-Bumps up off after an odds-on gate to wire score. A similar trip looks possible, knows how to beat this kind, and can stay good for another picture.
7-Gung Ho (7/2)-Ships back from PcD and has beaten better here before. Should enjoy the company, gets a positive driver change in George Brennan and could land in a good seat off the gate.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

1-Fight Not Flight (7/5)-Not feeling the short price but does figure to be a player. Draws the rail here which hasn't happened before. Should be there at the wire and needs to be used versus this bunch. Should be in the hunt but does have an issue sealing the deal this year (9-0-3-1).
2-Straight And Sassy (3-1)-Hoosier shippers haven't been automatic but at least this 3-year-old showed good speed on the 5/8's at Oak Grove. Brennan should have the pedal down and could be tough to tackle in its Yonkers debut.

Race 12 (10:40 Pm EST)

3-Major Makeover (8-1)-Got the pocket behind Italian Delight and finished that way. Someday the Delight will lose, and Dan Dube could get the same pocket ride tonight.
7-Italian Delight N (4/5)-Winner of 10 straight versus $15k claimers, without a claim entered, and will be a tiny price as usual. Should win again unless shows up ouchy, not counting on it but can't rule out.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

3,4,6/5,7/1,2/3,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:54 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Belterra Park - Race #2

#3 Lil Temptation	Think her mild bit of ability to pass horses might serve her well in a spot with a handful of forward/chasing types who don't figure to see out the trip. Think she'll be the right one with this local group.
#1 Vin D'Or	Dropper might flash some forward pace from the fence and never look back while getting into what will be the easiest spot she has seen by far. Could be gone before you know it.
#3 Hop Snip Anda Jump	A few of the races on her page stack up OK with this group, but she's not known for her consistency and is probably something like a mild third choice in here? Not impossible, but not for me.
Race Summary	Lil Temptation and Vin D'Or look like the right pair in here, and I'm hoping the presence of the rail runner will keep the price just playable on the top choice.

Belterra Park - Race #5

#2 Blue Vortex	Tough to stomach another short price after she failed to graduate at 3/5, 1/1, 1/2 and 1/2 in her last four starts, but she looks like the right one in a bad race if this stays on the grass. Those FG turf races from hint she's at least as good on the turf?
#4 Secord	She not all that consistent, but the three-back turf run would keep her in the frame, and she's got a touch of main-track form if this comes over and she stays in.
#9 Desperate Times	She might be ready for something just a bit better while dropping back in for a cheap tag and moving to the turf. Wouldn't have to come too far to share.
Race Summary	Blue Vortex might just be a money trap at this point in time, but it feels like she's supposed to handle this group on the turf if her recent form bounces back even a bit on the surface switch.

Belterra Park - Race #8

#4 Monty'sworthycajun	Taking a midrange price shot with this one in the finale. The two best races on his page both came when he was able to secure an early lead, and unless the fresh face on the fence goes, I don't see a ton of other serious early burn in here that should stop him from controlling this one early.
#7 Wegotjacksback	He's a mildly reliable finisher, and I think he's supposed to be capable of something better while coming back fast for his second local start.
#5 Eye Brow	He's got pretty much nowhere to go but up after only very briefly chasing before stopping in the debut run. Get a look at him, but he might be a price for a piece.
Race Summary	I wouldn't be all that upset being live to an aggressive potential pace single in Monty'sworthycajun, especially because he's going to offer at least some kind of midrange number.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:54 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2

#2 UNCLE CAT (3-1)	Firing for this barn, can maximize his speed in this spot, changes riders.
#6 PHANTOM SPEED (8-1)	Showed promise as 2yo, then rallied to win off 8-month layoff at bullring.
#5 DISPUTED CLAIM (5-1)	Lone six-figure earner at Laurel Park, strong numbers at 7F.
Race Summary	UNCLE CAT got caught on a clear lead in a three-turn sprint at Timonium, but he maintained improved recent form and might forget to stop in his first start at 7F. He switches pilots again in search of his first victory at Laurel Park. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#6 WALK AWAY JOE (8-1)	Projects ideal trip in speed-laden field at a tempting price.
#1 ARTISTIC REASON (8-5)	Won at three tracks by combined 14-1/4 lengths after vet voided a claim.
#5 MORNING THOUGHTS (5-2)	Plays to a steady beat, new barn has been on good run of late.
Race Summary	WALK AWAY JOE stalked a slow pace while 3- and 4-wide, was in range of the dueling leaders on the final turn but lacked late kick. He will have a much livelier pace to rally into at a distance which he has finished first or second in 9 of 19 starts. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-6 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #10

#1 NOTHING BUT HEIR (8-5)	Just missed after long duel at Monmouth in first start.
#7 GENERAL MAXIMUS (8-1)	Steady works over the track, price attached in debut.
#3 LIL SEBASTIAN (9-5)	Took back after showing ‘sharp speed,’ got beat in blanket finish, adds blinks.
Race Summary	NOTHING BUT HEIR dueled hard with the 12-1 winner and held second in a 12-horse field of mostly first-time starters at Monmouth. He fired a bullet work since then and figures tough with an alert start from the rail. Bet to win and place and play a 1/3,7/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three
Claiming $5,000 • 2 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 8:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. RUSTY CAGE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RUSTY CAGE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth s tart after a layoff. TWO BILLS: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FAMOUS ROCK STAR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FAST PER SE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
1	RUSTY CAGE	8/5	4/1
3	TWO BILLS	3/1	6/1
4	FAMOUS ROCK STAR	5/1	8/1
2	FAST PER SE	4/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RUSTY CAGE	1	8/5	Front-runner	79	77	91.0	72.0	69.0
3	TWO BILLS	3	3/1	Front-runner	80	70	76.0	66.0	61.0
2	FAST PER SE	2	4/1	Front-runner	77	70	68.2	62.8	57.3
4	FAMOUS ROCK STAR	4	5/1	Front-runner	75	68	61.8	68.8	62.8
6	NEAH BAY	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	70	66.0	58.8	49.3
5	HEATHER'S HEATHEN	5	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	67	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $8,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 5:30P
FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DERRUMBE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Track Master Power Rating. CRIOLLITA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ALUMA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	DERRUMBE	4/1	5/1
2	CRIOLLITA	5/2	5/1
3	ALUMA	10/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	EXTROVERTIDA	1	2/1	Front-runner	33	42	46.1	32.8	25.3
5	WILMA MY LOVE	5	5/1	Front-runner	40	34	36.2	28.8	15.8
2	CRIOLLITA	2	5/2	Stalker	54	46	50.2	39.6	33.6
6	DERRUMBE	6	4/1	Stalker	55	50	49.2	45.0	38.5
3	ALUMA	3	10/1	Trailer	55	54	41.4	46.0	40.5
7	VUELVE OKAIRY M	7	7/2	Trailer	54	48	26.8	21.8	11.3
4	KARINITA BELLA	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	41	34.4	33.0	23.5
8	PATRIOTICA	8	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	22	18	34.4	14.2	0.0
9	ASTACIO QUEEN	9	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	45	18	29.0	22.0	6.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:55 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 28 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 28 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 GLENDALE 5/1
# 6 WODETON (FR) 12/1
# 9 SARGE'S SERMON 12/1

My selection in this contest is GLENDALE. Ran a sharp last race. WODETON (FR) - Boasts formidable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. SARGE'S SERMON - Biehler has one of the strongest winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:56 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race #11 - Post: 11:08pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $92,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#2 KOSHER CAPONE (ML=15/1)
#9 REMI'S MOON (ML=10/1)
#8 MISCHIEVOUS M (ML=10/1)
#5 GENERAL ISSUE (FR) (ML=5/1)

KOSHER CAPONE - This dam (Experience (IRE)) has had strong success with first out winners, cashing 67 pct of the time. First-timer has workouts over the Churchill Downs strip, which is always a plus. Blair is giving this one Lasix for the first time. Very nice. REMI'S MOON - This colt has been posting some excellent workout times. Jockey and trainer do well when they team up. Loveberry and Sims have been steady together. Going on Lasix for the first time. While a common but well known handicapping angle, it's still quite useful when analyzing a race. MISCHIEVOUS M - Vance brings him back again. I propose you stick with this hot gelding. PP data show this campaigner with three improving speed figs. Torres should be on a horse ready to win in this field. GENERAL ISSUE (FR) - This colt has been posting some excellent workout times. Cook, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix in this event. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BOURBON BOSS (ML=7/2), #1 VELOCIRAPTOR (ML=4/1), #4 WALSTIB (ML=9/2),

BOURBON BOSS - 7/2 is not pegged at the proper price for any entrant in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint event recently. Didn't meet expectations when favored twice in a row. Not a value play to back the public's top choice when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. VELOCIRAPTOR - The pace configuration just isn't too promising for this speed merchant. Many other ponies would have to scratch to aid his dreams at winning. WALSTIB - Not normally the kind of horse one plays off of any type of long layoff. 9/2 is not offering enough value for any racer in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 KOSHER CAPONE to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	[2,9] with [2,5,8,9] with [2,5,8,9] with [1,2,4,5,8,9] with [1,2,4,5,8,9] Total Cost: $72

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:56 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#8 JEDI'S WAY (ML=7/2)
#4 SLEIPNIR (ML=9/2)

JEDI'S WAY - Sophisticated analyzers will tell you that this entrant has strong early speed. The jockey/trainer duo of Lunaobregon and Deiter has a strong return on investment together. A campaigner coming back this soon after a sharp contest is a good signal. SLEIPNIR - Trainer, Avila, has been deliberate with this colt off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. I think that this race's shorter trip should help this colt. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least five class points like this one did last race out. I believe he'll be competitive at this class level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BOURBON EXPRESS (ML=5/2), #6 OUTWORK U (ML=6/1), #7 GOLDEN AL (ML=8/1),

BOURBON EXPRESS - In the last event this pony finished tenth. Doesn't bode well for his chances this time out. This probable favorite hasn't visited the track in awhile. No morning drills since last race. OUTWORK U - Improbable for this thoroughbred to make a winning move with no success lately in a sprint race. GOLDEN AL - Didn't finish in the money on August 31st at Delaware Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar try.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - JEDI'S WAY - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This noble animal is tops in the field and has a good shot to beat this crew.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 JEDI'S WAY is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	8 with 4 with [2,5,6] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 06:56 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11400 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 OR NON-WINNERS OF FOUR RACES LIFETIME. [RACES ENTERED FOR $4000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY]. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. COLORADO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BRANNIGAN 4/1
# 6 PRINCE OF LUCK 9/2
# 3 HAPPY HOUR BOBBY 2/1

I give the nod to BRANNIGAN here. Must be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. This gelding could improve with second time Lasix. Must be in sound condition if the conditioner is bringing him back so quickly. PRINCE OF LUCK - Haar will almost certainly be able to get this gelding to break out quickly in here. Ought to be considered - I like the numbers from the last outing. HAPPY HOUR BOBBY - Looks very good to be up near the lead at the first call. Kenney has a sound 16 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2024, 07:01 AM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 28

Sep. 27, 2024

Race #1
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:00 PM ET
Best Bet #1 ROCKETEIGHTYEIGHT
$30,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-2	1	Rocketeightyeight	R Bejarano
Place	3-1	6	Gun Barrel	E Asmussen
Show	5-1	4	Kistler	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	5-1	9	Sesame Streek	T Gaffalione
Alternate 1	12-1	8	Papa Alden	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	8-1	10	Lucchesi	E Morales

Exacta 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/6 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:28 PM ET
Best Bet #3 TELL ME WHEN
$16,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	5-2	3	Tell Me When	G Ashton
Place	4-1	6	Ghostly Night	A Beschizza
Show	5-1	7	Yolo Calls	L Saez
Wild card	4-1	1	Lil Town Sis	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	6-1	2	My My Munny	M Chuan
Alternate 2	7-2	5	Cactus Flower	E Morales

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:56 PM ET
$50,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	7-2	7	Abadin	L Saez
Place	9-2	3	Tagliatelle	C A Torres
Show	4-1	6	Mumayaz	T Gaffalione
Wild card	5-2	1	Wake Surf	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	5-1	4	El Queso Grande	E Asmussen
Alternate 2	8-1	2	Flotation Station	K J Asmussen

Exacta 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/7 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:26 PM ET
$120,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	10	Atlal	T Gaffalione
Place	8-1	1	Swirling Eights	L Saez
Show	10-1	4	Midnite in Finley	A Beschizza
Wild card	6-1	12	Ravens Dream	K J Asmussen
Alternate 1	12-1	3	Lil Muggs	M Murrill
Alternate 2	10-1	5	Crisis Manager	C A Torres

Exacta 10-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-12 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/10 BOX, 1/4/12 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:57 PM ET
$141,000.00

Race 5 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	9-5	4	Champlin	T Gaffalione
Place	5-2	1	Gulfport	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	2-1	6	Sweet Cherry Pie	L Saez
Wild card	5-1	3	Osbourne	R Bejarano
Alternate 1	12-1	2	Love the Nest	E Morales
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Gilcrease	J R Leparoux

Exacta4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOXTrifecta1/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOXRace #6Dirt7 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:30 PM ET
$150,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Claiming

Win	6-1	1	Boutwell Time	C A Torres
Place	3-1	5	Ghosttapper	F Geroux
Show	8-1	3	Reecho	L Saez
Wild card	30-1	10	Western Woman	M Murrill
Alternate 1	9-2	9	Annas Promise	C J Lanerie
Alternate 2	12-1	6	Miss Que Sera	G Corrales

Exacta 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/5 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 09:04 PM ET
$120,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	8	Code of Justice	J A Torres
Place	3-1	12	Framework	F Geroux
Show	8-1	13	Edifice	T Gaffalione
Wild card	10-1	10	Triple Up	F Arrieta
Alternate 1	12-1	7	Grim Reaper	L Saez
Alternate 2	10-1	11	Captain Cook	C J Lanerie

Exacta 8-12 BOX, 12-13 BOX, 13-10 BOX
Trifecta 8/12/13 BOX, 10/12/13 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 09:37 PM ET
$400,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	4-5	7	Saudi Crown	F Geroux
Place	6-1	1	Tumbarumba	L Saez
Show	4-1	4	Mufasa	T Gaffalione
Wild card	7-2	3	Cagliostro	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	20-1	6	Big Blue Line	L Machado
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Three Technique	R Bejarano

Exacta 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/7 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 10:09 PM ET
Best Bet #1 LA MARINERA
$127,000.00

Race 9 Allowance

Win	8-1	1	La Marinera	R Miranda
Place	5-2	7	Adeera	E Asmussen
Show	7-5	5	Good Cheer	L Saez
Wild card	5-1	6	Hearts United	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	5-1	4	Chattanooga Crew	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 2	12-1	2	Total Heart	E Morales

Exacta 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
Race #10
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 10:40 PM ET
$500,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	2-1	6	Hit Show	F Geroux
Place	5-2	2	Rattle N Roll	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	5-1	4	Cooke Creek	L Saez
Wild card	3-1	5	Disarm	T Gaffalione
Alternate 1	5-1	8	Warrior Johny	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	20-1	3	Happy American	C J Lanerie

Exacta 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
Race #11
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 11:08 PM ET
$92,000.00

Race 11 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	7	Bourbon Boss	C A Torres
Place	9-2	4	Walstib	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	4-1	1	Velociraptor	J L Ortiz
Wild card	12-1	10	Kenmore West	M Murrill
Alternate 1	12-1	6	Livehappy	A Achard
Alternate 2	5-1	5	General Issue	O Mojica

Exacta 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/7 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX