Sunday 9/29/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:31 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 9/29/24

September 29, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

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Santa Anita 1st Race – Post: 1:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Prime Gamble: 5-English Icon
Other Contenders: 6-Laugier Night (Ire).

Forecast: English Icon was given an educational run in his debut yet still performed admirably when fifth beaten only three lengths in a grass miler for older maidens last month at Del Mar. We anticipate a significant forward move with blinkers being added combined with the shortening to a sprint. Also, second timers from the M. Glatt barn hit at a strong 23%, so with a couple of easy breezes since raced and with D. Herrera riding him back the son of English Channel has plenty to be enthusiastic about. We’re expecting him to be within range throughout, so if he can kick home like we think he can, a gamble at or near his 5-1 morning line seems appropriate.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita – 7th race - Post: 4:03 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Prime Gamble: 1-Alpha Belle
Other Contenders: 2-Flying Connection

Forecast: Alpha Belle has been primarily a turf horse throughout her career, but the way she has been breezing on dirt since arriving West and joining the J. Sadler give hope that the daughter of Justify will improve a bunch over the Santa Anita main track. She has plenty of speed and projects to be close up throughout – especially from her favorable rail position – so let’s make her a strong play in the win pool and a major key in rolling exotic play. The best of the locals is Flying Connection, a willing runner-up behind top class Adare Manor in her most recent outing at Del Mar. She’s worth tossing in as a saver.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:32 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 29, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Camouflage Money (5/2)-Needs to take control early on or race at the top of stack and benefit from an efficient trip. Lands in a spot that either possibility could happen.
3-Back In My Day (9/2)-Won 2 back from the same post and then moved up to face this kind. Cashed a small check versus this kind after racing wide. Should offer a square price and could be a factor with a smooth trip.
4-Commander Bob (12-1)-Beat this kind 2 back off a pocket ride. Then moved up and didn't make an impact until late to cash a 4th place check. Beat the same at 12-1 from this post on 9-15 and should be well-worth a swing at the morning line price.

Race 12(10:02 PM EST)

3-Shamrock (10-1)- Beat this kind 2 back with Aaron Merriman between the pipes off an efficient trip. The price that night was 6/5 and could get a cozy trip here. Justin Irvine can get the job done if lands in a good seat off the gate.
6-Guido Di (5/2)-Has been bet down, was the post time favorite in the last 3 races and did disappoint last time falling a neck short. Should be another small price and draws better tonight than in the last 3 starts.
8-Tequila Talkin (5-1)-Has won 10 of 19 at Nfld and has the gate speed to get a close-up seat. The Burke entry needs to take control early on and should offer a square price. If Ronnie Wrenn can steal a quarter, it could be picture time.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

4-Roll With Time (2-1)-Ships back after drawing the 7-hole against better in a no-move mile. Now comes back to a more competitive level and Merriman gets the nod. Won't offer any value, lost versus this kind by a head as an odds-on choice 2-back. Won't offer any value, will likely be odds-on again and has a big chance to make amends.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)-

7-Chrchviewcamlot IR (9-1)-Interesting 5-year-old that has hit the board in all 8 races this year and has taken 5 pictures. Makes its Nfld debut and will take a swing at this price. Has faced better than this and could win if fires hot in the 1st start for the Roegner barn. But Kurt Sugg needs to do a good job.
9-The Real Way (7/2)-Comes off a sharp win at the Meadows from post 7. Merriman could follow #2 off the gate and land in a decent seat. Should be a player at a short price.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,3,4/3,6,8/4/7,9
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:32 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #6

#8 Charger	Taking a little swing here while this one turns back on on the move over to the main with the two best races on his page coming around one turn, and maybe he's legged up for a better finishing effort after the route runs. Something like the April 21 run would do if he's still got it in him.
#9 Boudin	He should appreciate the move back in with the locals today and should be in a decent spot while spying the pace from just a few lengths back. Probably the one to beat.
#3 Don't Cross Jack	His very best is competitive with these, but he isn't really known for getting past horses and might have to make a run for it early today. Might work.
Race Summary	Charger might be able to run along late while cutting back today, and I'm hoping the price will be pretty solid. There are a couple races on his page that keep him in the frame.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#12 Grand Deal	Late runner isn't meeting a whole lot of other finishing punch in here, so he has a midrange price chance to get past them late after an encouraging cutback run last out.
#11 Running Right By U	He's an obvious threat on class and better form, but this doesn't feel like a particularly positive move to show up locally on the drop after a fading effort last out. Not for me at a potentially short kind of price?
#7 The Filter	Wondering if that last one was a hint that he's coming around to some better form right now, and the price still figures to be pretty attractive despite the improved effort last out.
Race Summary	Grand Deal should get a good run of things in a race where a lot of them should be packing things in by midstretch. Not sure we're getting the 8/1 ML offering.

Mountaineer - Race #3

#7 Waterworks	Think she's supposed to get a good trip from out here while sitting right off the speed. Generally reliable runner can be tough from close range.
#5 Sweet Queen Bee	Good chance she shows some pace and mixes things up early on, but she came back just a touch the last time she ran a big race to win, and I worry she'll be overbet. Capable.
#1 Thunder Buggy	Not quite sure what to do with this one turning back with route back from the fence, but she might be fast enough to stay in the hunt early on at this trip.
Race Summary	Waterworks feels like she can be a handful with a great trip likely waiting for her from the outside draw, and something like her last might do the trick right back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fresno
PURCHASE

Fresno - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) $0.20 GOLD STRIKE Super High 5
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $11,500 • Post: 5:18P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * VILIFIED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. ALPHABETICAL ORDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ANNIVERSAIRE D'OR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. RUNNIN UTE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HOT JOURNEY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	VILIFIED	9/2	5/1
5	ALPHABETICAL ORDER	5/1	6/1
7	ANNIVERSAIRE D'OR	3/1	7/1
8	RUNNIN UTE	8/1	8/1
6	HOT JOURNEY	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	VILIFIED	4	9/2	Front-runner	81	80	90.6	73.0	65.0
9	DR. FLASH DANCER	9	6/1	Front-runner	77	74	85.8	64.2	49.2
7	ANNIVERSAIRE D'OR	7	3/1	Front-runner	75	81	70.2	73.2	63.2
8	RUNNIN UTE	8	8/1	Stalker	81	70	65.6	73.6	66.6
6	HOT JOURNEY	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	68	67.0	71.4	63.9
3	BESKAR	3	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	76	66.8	68.2	52.7
5	ALPHABETICAL ORDER	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	85	65.2	77.4	66.9
2	IT AINT OVER	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	75	51.2	51.4	41.4
1	THIRSTY THURSDAY	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	81	72.8	61.2	51.7
10	MUAY THAI (IRE)	10	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	82	66.2	67.8	54.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:34 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Two-Day Stakes Pick 4
Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 124 • Purse: $1,000,000 • Post: 4:43P
CALIFORNIA CROWN S. PRESENTED BY SIRDAVIS AMERICAN WHISKY SA - R9 - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. NATIONAL TREASURE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NATIONAL TREASURE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the d istance/surface. SUBSANADOR (ARG): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SENOR BUSCADOR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	NATIONAL TREASURE	8/5	5/2
2	SUBSANADOR (ARG)	5/1	7/1
6	SENOR BUSCADOR	6/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	NATIONAL TREASURE	3	8/5	Front-runner	117	114	109.6	109.6	104.6
2	SUBSANADOR (ARG)	2	5/1	Stalker	108	118	97.0	108.4	101.9
5	MUTH	5	2/1	Stalker	105	112	95.2	104.1	94.6
1	NEWGATE	1	6/1	Trailer	107	106	87.0	101.4	93.4
6	SENOR BUSCADOR	6	6/1	Trailer	123	123	84.0	109.4	106.9
7	INDISPENSABLE	7	20/1	Trailer	100	105	83.8	93.8	80.3
4	KATONAH	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	109	110	94.8	103.4	92.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $141000 Class Rating: 98

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $100,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $100,000 (RACES

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 HAPPY AM I 1/1
# 3 CURRENT CLIMATE 4/1
# 1 SHARP HERO 8/1

HAPPY AM I seems to be the wager in here. This equine enters today's affair on Lasix. Gaffalione has been sizzling the last month, winning at a nifty 18 percent rate. Is a solid contender - given the 84 Equibase speed fig from her most recent race. CURRENT CLIMATE - There is a quite good chance that this entry's late pace will improve with second time Lasix. Has decent Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. SHARP HERO - Has to be given consideration versus this group of horses displaying strong figures recently and an average speed figure of 84 under similar conditions. Bettors should probably take a good look at this one as this mare has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 80

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 PRINCES ABIGAIL 8/5
# 1 LISTEN NOW 2/1
# 4 NAMGIS AZOOM 5/1

PRINCES ABIGAIL looks to be a very good contender. She has competitive class ratings, averaging 83, and has to be given a shot here. Boasts sound Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses. This animal enters today's contest now going off Lasix. LISTEN NOW - Shows signs of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 69 speed figure which is one of the most favorable in this field. Trainer boasts sharp win numbers at this distance and surface. NAMGIS AZOOM - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. He has to be carefully examined given the solid speed figs.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #9 - Post: 5:13pm - Optional Claiming - 9.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $92,000 Class Rating: 104

Rating:

#9 L'ANTHARIS (FR) (ML=4/1)
#13 GRAY'S FABLE (ML=5/1)
#12 HARRY HOOD (ML=12/1)
#10 BE LIKE CLINT (ML=6/1)
#7 STREET READY (ML=20/1)

L'ANTHARIS (FR) - This horse has a ton of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the top of the lane. This horse obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has garnered the highest speed figure on the grass at the distance & surface. This horse's last speed figure is lofty enough to triumph here, I'll wager on him back again in today's event. GRAY'S FABLE - Stidham has a very strong win pct in grass routes. This gelding should be in shape and ready to win. This magnificent animal has a lot of class. A good sign in a race on the turf like we have today. Stidham adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a chance at a big improvement. This animal ran out of the top three at Horseshoe Indianapolis in the last race on the soft turf. He should improve today without the slop. HARRY HOOD - Numerous positive 'vibes' associated with this thoroughbred and his barn. BE LIKE CLINT - I like a horse that manages to be there at the wire as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. STREET READY - This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Maker. Better watch out for this angle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #14 PANDAGATE (ML=4/5), #16 RUNNIN' RAY (ML=5/2), #8 BOURBON DAY (ML=7/2),

PANDAGATE - This young horse isn't going to beat the veterans today, maybe another time. The victory on Aug 25th probably isn't good enough to beat these today. When looking at today's class figure, he will have to notch a better speed rating than last out to battle in this turf route. RUNNIN' RAY - This gelding notched a speed rating in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event. BOURBON DAY - Morning line of 7/2 make this horse a pass by my standards.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 L'ANTHARIS (FR) to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [9,12,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[9,12,13] with [7,9,10,12,13] with [7,9,10,12,13] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2024, 08:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#2 RIVER ANT (ML=8/1)
#3 DRISKILL (ML=8/1)
#6 GENIUS (ML=8/1)

RIVER ANT - This jockey and handler's animals have been producing a positive return on investment. This one could be a potential overlay right here at morning line odds of 8/1. Finished fourth in last race at Mountaineer Park but was close at the finish. DRISKILL - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Clouston. GENIUS - The return on investment when Whitacre and Inman team up is tremendous. I really like that latest contest on September 11th at Mountaineer Park where he ran first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 GATES OF HEAVEN (ML=8/5), #4 DRIVE BY LAYOVER (ML=4/1), #7 TWO GUNS (ML=9/2),

GATES OF HEAVEN - This morning-line choice hasn't been to the track in awhile. No works since last race. DRIVE BY LAYOVER - Tough to take this runner at the price after the result (third) in the last event. TWO GUNS - Should have at least finished in the money in the last 60 days in a short distance race to be worth the risk at minimal odds in a sprint. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to earn a much better speed rating than last race out to be competitive in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 RIVER ANT on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass