Monday 9/30/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:29 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 30, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $15,000 guaranteed pool begins in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

3-American Dealer N (3-1)-This post draw could lead to a win with a sharp steer by Jason Bartlett. Came the back half last time in 54.1 but could only finish 4th vs this kind. Looking for this pilot to blast out and be on top or close to it by the half pole.
5-Act Fast (5/2)-The Burke 4-year-old has big speed and makes its 1st start at YR. This will be a test, wouldn’t want a short price but will respect chances to take a picture versus an older group of Invites.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Mind Hunter (7/2)-All but 2 in this field of 8 are moving up in class. This 5-year-old steps up but comes back in sequence and has easily won the last 2 races. Will look for Austin Siegelman to get on the point again, and not look back.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

1-Splash Brothers (7/2)-This is the 3rd start off the bench and the 3rd straight drop in class. Mark MacDonald has the gate speed to be on the point or in the pocket around the opening turn. May have met a beatable field and hasn't been in this cheap in a while.
2-Roll With The Flow (3-1)-Mohawk invader has hit the board in all 3 starts at YR and has taken 2 pictures. Started from post 8 in the last two starts at Wbsb and this will be the 3rd time for Lasix. Jordan Stratton is at the controls and should fit well with this crew.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

3-Fulsome (5-1)-Will look for a square price, and cashed a 3rd place check against $50k claimers 2 starts back. Should enjoy the company and this looks like a good spot for a picture.
4-Blank Stare (3-1)-Comes off a win at Tioga but hasn't taken the top prize at Yonkers lately and now lands in a soft spot. Tyler Buter should be aggressive, and this isn't a salty field.

$2.00 Late Pick 4

3,5/4/1,2/3,4
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:29 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Finger Lakes - Race #2

#1 She's Wicked	Wonder if she might have a little appeal with some reasonable upside in this second career start, as there doesn't appear to be much depth in here beyond the two likely chalks.
#6 Outta the Cloud	Tough to split her and the next one, but I think she has enough room to bounce back a length or two and turn the tables on Dharma. Threat in what doesn't feel like a memorable race for the local level.
#4 Dharma	She's another obvious contender in here, and I like that she has at least a tiny bit of ability to finish off a race in the final sixteenth -- most in her can't claim that.
Race Summary	She's Wicked took a little cash but didn't show much in the Mahoning Valley debut last year, and she offers a few different reasons to hope that she's ready for something better off the bench.

Finger Lakes - Race #8

#8 I Got Busted	This feels like a reasonable spot to bring him back off the layoff after a couple of intriguing starts to open his career, and he looks like the best of the early burn lined up in here, so he's got a real chance to run this group off their feet.
#4 Profitability	He's a pretty honest finisher who figures to be another decent price, and he might be in the right spot to pick up some of the ones who are tailing off late.
#1 Joe West	Liked the way he put things together in the last couple starts and punched home to graduate last out, and he could wind up getting a really cozy trip while tucked in just behind the speed from the fence. On the plays.
Race Summary	I Got Busted has some appeal in a spot where he is meeting a couple of potential forward players who might chase and quit, and I think he's going to be a handful here if he's ready to go off the break.

Finger Lakes - Race #9

#10 Bottomless Refill	He has been thriving since showing up with the locals, and he might find a really dreamy trip while keeping tabs on a few forward players who pretty reliably stop. Gets the jump on the deeper threats? Lots to like while in sharp form for a cheap horse.
#2 Seatiger	Think he's the one to beat after a couple underneath shares with similar, but I wouldn't want to get caught here if the price started getting too short. One of the ones.
#3 Papi On Ice	He's another who has run on well in recent starts and should be in the mix in a race where a lot of them figure to be calling it a day by the eighth pole. Tough to split from Seatiger again.
Race Summary	Bottomless Refill looks for a third straight score, and he should be able to find a perfect spying spot just behind some quicker pace-and-fade types. There are some nice dirt routes on his page, too, and he seems better now.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:29 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #1

#5 CATHERINE BLAZE (1-1)	Can’t go beyond despite record in second start off Asmussen re-claim.
#6 SALLY BALI (12-1)	Won grass route two back, has good dirt sprint to summon, good price.
#1 BEAUTIFUL MANDATE (9-5)	Broke maiden at this level, must avoid recurring slow starts.
Race Summary	Hard to look past favorite CATHERINE BLAZE, who won at this distance at Churchill Downs, just missed in a Fair Grounds route race and held consistent main-track form recently. The 1-for-30 record is the drawback, but it’s now or never in this field in her second start off the re-claim by Asmussen. Make a flat win bet and play 5-1 and 5-6 exactas.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #2

#7 LOW KEY FLEX (8-1)	Exits solid sprint at Ellis Park for $16,000, worth a price stab.
#3 PRISON BOUND (7-2)	Pressed pace on inside early, settled back, settled for second best.
#4 A MUST SEE (9-5)	Exits fast MSW turf sprints, has kept busy work tab for main-track debut.
Race Summary	Class-droppers abound in this deep field of bottom-level maiden claimers. LOW KEY FLEX gets the call at 8-1 on the morning line after she chased a pair of Churchill Downs shippers but couldn’t keep up with the two favorites through solid fractions at Ellis Park. Bet to win and place.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #3

#6 TRIKITRAKI (8-5)	Plays to a steady beat, has loyal following, like his chances but not the price.
#4 IMPROBABLE STORY (4-1)	Had good set-up in near miss at Churchill Downs, gets another one today.
#1 CUT GLASS (6-1)	Has speed and rail, finished 1-2 in 15 of 31 starts on the main track.
Race Summary	TRIKITRAKI, dismissed at 4-1 odds or less in 11 of his last 12 starts, earned the attention with steady form that translated into winning ways at the Horseshoe and at the distance. He made the lead despite a bumpy start in his latest main-track run at 5F, led at the eighth pole but got caught. Bet to win and place and play a 4,6/1,4,6/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:30 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 7	$2 Daily Double (Races 7-8) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $28,600 • Post: 9:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED) (PREFERENCE TO HIGHEST EARNINGS IN 2023 - 2024).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * JOHN'S ROCK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. O'CONNER SUNSET: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MR. WHO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designa tion or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. OPRY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
8	JOHN'S ROCK	9/5	5/1
6	O'CONNER SUNSET	5/1	6/1
5	MR. WHO	6/1	7/1
3	OPRY	15/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	MR. WHO	5	6/1	Front-runner	102	100	100.6	91.2	83.2
3	OPRY	3	15/1	Front-runner	109	102	95.7	98.1	89.1
2	COUTH	2	6/1	Front-runner	99	81	90.6	80.0	67.5
1	WICKED WARRIOR	1	9/2	Front-runner	91	89	80.4	89.8	80.3
7	YO VINNIE	7	6/1	Stalker	92	87	66.3	83.1	71.6
6	O'CONNER SUNSET	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	103	93	86.4	91.6	86.6
4	INDIAN EMPIRE	4	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	98	93	70.0	88.6	77.6
8	JOHN'S ROCK	8	9/5	Trailer	97	92	80.8	93.6	88.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:31 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 5	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7), 20 Cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $4,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 51 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 4:22P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, IF FOR $3,750, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FULCRA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FULCRA: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	FULCRA	2/1	8/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	FULCRA	2	2/1	Front-runner	53	51	60.6	47.6	44.6
5	FAITHFUL GIFT	5	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	37	47.2	36.4	29.9
7	RING IT UP	7	8/1	Trailer	55	32	32.6	35.0	29.5
3	WILD KATZLENE	3	3/1	Trailer	54	44	0.0	41.7	34.7
1	BAMBOO'S BABE	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	47	35	36.0	32.4	20.9
8	IMPRESSIVE STYLE	8	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	35	36.0	31.2	20.2
4	SOVEREIGN TALE	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	48	28	20.5	14.6	3.6

Unknown Running Style: KRZ TOURIST (12/1) [Jockey: Crawford Juan - Trainer: Humber Joseph].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:31 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13700 Class Rating: 70

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 VAUNTED 3/1
# 8 MACDONOUGH 4/1
# 1 B C GLORY DAYS 6/1

VAUNTED has a competitive shot to take this race. Recent numbers for the jock - 20 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. Is tough not to consider based on speed figures which have been competitive - 67 avg - of late. MACDONOUGH - Davila will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out sharply in this event. Has run well when racing a dirt sprint race. B C GLORY DAYS - Had one of the most favorable speed figs of this group in his last contest. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is formidable for this racer.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:31 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $23120 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA BRED CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY(RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 CATHERINE BLAZE 1/1
# 1 BEAUTIFUL MANDATE 9/5
# 6 SALLY BALI 12/1

I favor CATHERINE BLAZE here. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this equine a solid choice. Put up a strong speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. BEAUTIFUL MANDATE - Ran a very solid last race. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figures (57 average) at today's distance and surface lately. SALLY BALI - Will probably come out very solid - I have liked the way this mare has moved sharply to the lead recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:31 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,800 Class Rating: 42

Rating:

#6 HALO EFFECT (ML=3/1)
#1 MOST ADORABLE (ML=6/1)

HALO EFFECT - Really have to believe this race horse is going to be on the money at the finish. MOST ADORABLE - That last drill tells me this filly is set for a top effort. Batista and Yoder getting together are a railbird's friend. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a sharp effort within the last thirty days. Always be careful of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 QUICK RENDEZVOUS (ML=8/5), #5 SHE IS DYNAMIC (ML=2/1),

QUICK RENDEZVOUS - 8/5 odds isn't enough for this horse when looking at the most recent efforts. SHE IS DYNAMIC - This less than sharp equine ran a substandard speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 HALO EFFECT to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2024, 07:32 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 3:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#4 DREAMFUL (ML=3/1)
#1 VERBAL GEYSER (FR) (ML=8/5)
#3 EASY SEVEN (ML=5/2)

DREAMFUL - It looks like Severino had to learn about this mare on Sep 4th when riding her for the initial time. Back on again today. Hasn't run at today's distance recently but does have a speed figure recorded last time she tried this distance good enough to win. VERBAL GEYSER (FR) - Potts brings her right back. I advocate you stick with this live filly. Good return on investment for this jockey and conditioner duo. A big drop in class rating points from her Sep 9th race at Presque Isle Downs. Based on that data, I will give this horse the advantage. Just look at her most recent fig, 77. That one looks good in this bunch. EASY SEVEN - This filly is in first-rate physical condition right now. Ended up first last race out and comes back quickly. Ranks number one in the field in (EPS) earnings per start. A solid performance in today's race can increase that bankroll.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CARLOTUK (ML=7/2), #5 URBAN COWGIRL (ML=8/1),

CARLOTUK - Doesn't appear to be in a satisfactory situation this time around. URBAN COWGIRL - The Brain tells me to stay away from horses in sprint events that haven't hit the board in sprint races lately.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - EASY SEVEN - Posting a better speed rating each of her last couple of events. This filly is a prime candidate to win today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 DREAMFUL is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2024, 01:53 PM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at North Side Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 53 - Purse:$1000 - NON WINNERS 1 AND 2 PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE OR NW $95 PS IN 2024

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 GOTTOLETITGO 3/1
# 7 THE FASCINATOR 4/1
# 1 SHOOT TO THRILL 5/2

We've got good vibrations GOTTOLETITGO is going to get the triumph. Pace numbers fit the bias well here at North Side Downs, look for this one to get the win. Take a look at this harness racer's average speed stat of 53 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a formidable bet. Worth considering here if only for the competitive TrackMaster SR recorded in the last contest. THE FASCINATOR - Good for a win wager just off the top notch prior class stats. Have to like this fine animal. SHOOT TO THRILL - Could very likely dominate this bunch given the 53 speed figure recorded in her most recent race. Can't gloss over this fine animal, especially in exotics. Pace rankings put her in the mix this time.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2024, 01:54 PM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
1	1	FOUR SIXES	6/5	Hennessey, Wally - 23	515.70
2	2	TIKTOK ROY	8/1	Dobson, Billy - 16	480.09
3	3	FOXE ELLA	12/1	Devaux, Jim - 13	452.96
6	6	U BAKE THE CAKE	10/1	Cushing, Mitchell - 11	444.44
7	7	TOBERN	15/1	Stark, John Jr - 7	441.54
5	5	MAJOR TOM	7/2	Fluet, Phil - 11	432.55
4	4	DURACELL	6/1	Crawford, Brett - 7	417.43
8	8	NICHOLAS BLUE CHIP	30/1	Long, Chris - 10	388.72

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2024, 01:54 PM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Rosecroft Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 5
5	5	DANGER ZONE	5/2	Davis, Eric - 7	506.34
4	4	HIDE THE CHEDDAR	4/1	Plante, Roger Jr - 10	463.91
6	6	COUSIN BRUCIE	6/1	Carter, William - 10	461.95
8	8	BO BREEZE	6/1	Carter, Billy - 16	459.08
1	1	RACER PACER	7/2	Roberts, Jonathan - 18	456.16
9	9	K J MICHAEL	8/1	Moyer, Jared - 8	442.46
3	3	VIRGIN BOY	3/1	Foster, Russell - 16	433.50
2	2	CONCERT ARTIST	12/1	Tomlinson, Brian - 17	424.82
7	7	CAPTAINGIDDYUPNGO	8/1	Porter, Trae - 17	388.72

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2024, 01:56 PM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 9:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 94 - Purse:$39000 - INVITATIONAL

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 ACT FAST 5/2
# 3 AMERICAN DEALER N 3/1
# 4 COVERED BRIDGE 4/1

ACT FAST will have you running to the cashier's window here. With a 95 avg class statistic, this standardbred has one of the strongest class advantages in the field. With a formidable 90 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. AMERICAN DEALER N - This nice horse will be greatly helped with Bartlett taking the reins. 33 percent winners the past month. COVERED BRIDGE - Feel the need for speed, this interesting entrant has been turning in some stellar TrackMaster speed figs averaging around 97. Seems to have a great class edge based on the participants he has faced.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2024, 01:56 PM

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Atlanta w/Schwellenbach -150 over NY Mets in Game 1