10-24-11

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo lost his 3-team parlay yesterday because of the Packers' blatant disregard for the spread, but he balanced out that setback with his Ranger win, so the debt remained at 3,535 cadarets.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch is looking for some R & R with the Ravens and Rangers -- 20 units apiece.

[Mr. IWS]

Sportbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Baltimore -9.5 over Jacksonville

[Mr. IWS]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Florida Panthers + Montreal Canadiens OVER 5

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Baltimore -9.5 over Jacksonville

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Hanshin Tigers -130 over Hiroshima Toyo Carp
Japanese League

[Mr. IWS]

DOC Sports

4 Unit Play. #126 Take Under 39.5 in Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Monday 8:45 p.m. ESPN)

[Mr. IWS]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Ravens at Jaguars: What Bettors Need to Know


Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 40)

THE STORY: Mired in a five-game losing streak amid growing speculation that their coach's job is in jeopardy, one of the last teams the Jacksonville Jaguars want to see come to town Monday night is the Baltimore Ravens. Jacksonville is among the league's lowest-scoring teams and now must host a Ravens team that has surrendered an NFL-low 71 points. That's not exactly the ideal recipe to help beleaguered coach Jack Del Rio and the offensively challenged Jaguars avoid a sixth consecutive loss for the first time since the franchise's inaugural season in 1995.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (4-1): Baltimore is riding a three-game winning streak and is coming off an impressive 29-14 win over Houston, a division rival of the Jaguars. Despite questions about their offense, last week’s scoring output was the lowest for the Ravens in any of their wins. Joe Flacco overcame two turnovers to throw for 305 yards and Ray Rice rushed for 101 yards and had five catches for 60 yards. WR Anquan Boldin had eight catches for 132 yards, both season highs. Baltimore limited Arian Foster, the league’s leading rusher last season, to 49 yards on 15 carries.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-5): Despite its offensive ineptitude, Jacksonville showed some moxie a week ago, battling back from a 17-0 deficit in Pittsburgh to get into position for a failed Hail Mary pass at the end of the game. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert threw for only 109 yards and a TD in his fourth start since replacing Luke McCown. Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 96 yards on 22 carries. On an offense bereft of playmakers, Jones-Drew has managed to run for at least 84 yards in each game. He is third in the league with 572 yards rushing.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Last week, Ravens LB Ray Lewis became the first player in league history with at least 40 career sacks and 30 interceptions.

2. Jones-Drew needs six yards rushing to reach 8,000 for his career.

3. Baltimore has won seven of the last eight meetings with Jacksonville.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The line opened up just above the touchdown hook (7.5) but has been bet up to 9.5 as of Sunday afternoon. It would take an avalanche of Baltimore action to drive this number above another key number (10) but we know the public likes the Ravens a lot in this spot.

Not a lot to talk about with the over/under line. The total is jumping between 39.5 and 40.

TRENDS:

The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games and last six games as chalk.

The Jags are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against winning teams.

The over is 5-1 in the Ravens’ last six games overall while the under is 5-1 in the Jags last six games.

PREDICTION: Ravens 23, Jaguars 13. Baltimore has no problems shutting down Jacksonville’s one-dimensional offense.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Monday's Best NFL Bet

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 40)

Monday Night Football betting heads to the Sunshine State for the fourth time this year. For the first time though, it is the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting, as they welcome the Baltimore Ravens to town.

The Ravens are just punishing virtually everyone that gets in their way right now, and there really does seem to be no doubt that they are going to win the AFC North as long as they stay the course. QB Joe Flacco had a nice game on Sunday against the Houston Texans, throwing for 305 yards and coming up with a TD run. He is just getting a slew of help from RB Ray Rice, though. Rice is well on his way to a 2,000+ yard season this year, and that number could even reach 2,500. He has 398 yards on the ground and 302 more as a receiver, which leaves him on a clip for 2,240 yards this year, and we don’t think that we have seen the best out of him quite yet. This offense line is really just starting to gel, and last week was only the second 100+ yard rushing game for Rice on the campaign. Expect to see him top the century mark more often than not for the rest of the year, including most likely in this game against a Jacksonville front seven that, at times has really struggled.

Poor QB Blaine Gabbert. Last week, it was a road game with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, the Ravens are coming to town. The good news is that Gabbert is at least keeping his head above water even though is completion percentage is dreadful and his offensive line can’t keep him clean. The Steelers had four sacks, all of which came in the first half last week, but Gabbert still had his squad within a Hail Mary of victory on the road. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is quietly having a successful season as well, and he is putting up numbers that look a heck of a lot like those of Rice without all of the touchdowns. MJD has 572 rushing yards and 75 more as a receiver. He won’t put up the receptions or the yards that Rice does outside of the backfield, but considering the fact that this offense is awfully one dimensional, the fact that Jones-Drew has accounted for an average of nearly 100 rushing yards per game is remarkable.

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: We at least think that the Jags have a shot of making this game interesting. Sure, Baltimore will probably lead by double digits at some point, and the game has a chance of getting away from the hosts, but if the Steelers can allow Gabbert to stick around in Pittsburgh, the home town crowd in Jacksonville has to at least give the Jaguars a shot on Monday of pulling this off. Take the points.

PICK: Jaguars +8

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Rangers Hope To Bounce Back In Winnipeg
By Brian Compton


New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets (+105, 5.5)
RANGERS (2-2-2) at JETS (2-4-1)

TV: MSG, TSN-JETS

SEASON SERIES: This is the first of four meetings between the teams. The Atlanta Thrashers won three of the four showdowns last season, including a 3-0 decision at Madison Square Garden on April 7.

BIG STORY: Will Henrik Lundqvist be ready to play? The Rangers' world-class goaltender was forced to leave Saturday's 2-0 loss at Edmonton due to pain in his left foot. Including the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Lundqvist has started each of the Rangers' last 37 games. He has a 1.82 goals-against average and .942 save percentage in New York's first six contests this season.

"It's all taken care of," Lundqvist told the New York Post after skating with the Rangers on Sunday. "I'm on my second pair of skates this season, I changed them after we came back from Europe, and there was just a problem there that built up a little bit.

"By the third period, I was thinking so much about my foot, my skate and the pain that I just couldn't focus on the puck, and if I'm not doing that I can't play my game, so that's why I came out."

TEAM SCOPE:

RANGERS: It started it's four-game Western swing with impressive back-to-back wins at Vancouver and Calgary, but New York struggled mightily in Edmonton on Saturday night. The Rangers mustered only 14 shots on goal and barely tested Nikolai Khabibulin, who was credited with the shutout.

"We (stunk) from head to toe," said Rangers coach John Tortorella, who declined to take questions from the media after the loss. "We need to move by it."

JETS: Winnipeg managed to bounce back from Thursday's 4-1 loss at Ottawa with a 5-3 victory against the Carolina Hurricanes at the MTS Centre. Ondrej Pavalec struggled and was pulled in favor of Chris Mason, who calmed things down and stopped 18 of 19 shots. Jim Slater, Andrew Ladd and Evander all scored in the second period to help the Jets pull away.

"I thought we did a really nice job," Winnipeg coach Claude Noel said. "There was a real urgency to win the game, which is what we needed to win the game."

WHO'S HOT: Rangers winger Marian Gaborik has 4 goals in six games, while newcomer Brad Richards has a goal and 4 assists. … Jets center Alexander Burmistrov, a second-year pro, has 6 points (2 goals, 4 assists) and a plus-3 rating in seven games.

INJURY REPORT: New York is expected to be without Marc Staal (concussion), Michael Sauer (shoulder) and Wojtek Wolski (groin). Mike Rupp (knee) left Sunday's practice and is questionable. … Ron Hainsey (upper body), Eric Fehr (shoulder), Aaron Gagnon (undisclosed) and Kenndal McArdle (foot) will likely all be out for Winnipeg.

STAT PACK: This marks the Rangers' first trip to Winnipeg since Nov. 17, 1995, when the Jets earned a 6-3 victory. … The Jets are 0-4-1 when they allow a power-play goal and 2-0-0 when they do not.

PUCK DROP: "He is going to be an impact player in junior, and with that comes the pressures of leading a team, and the expectations of producing all the time. Those are the kinds of things that when he becomes a National Hockey League player, things like that are going to be his responsibility all the time." -- Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff on returning Mark Scheifele to the OHL

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Monday's Best NHL Bets

New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets (+105, 5.5)

All the New York Rangers want at this point is a good sleep in their own beds.

New York began the season in Europe and then went on a five-game road trip as the renovations at Madison Square Garden neared completion. The club sits 2-2-2 on the year and has yet to put everything together.

The Rangers were terrible in a 2-0 loss at Edmonton on Saturday, getting outplayed in all zones and lacking any type of forecheck. That’ll happen when you’ve been on the road as long as they have, but coach John Tortorella wouldn’t let his team off the hook, lashing out at the media and refusing to answer any questions following the loss.

This is New York’s last road game before the team heads back to the Big Apple, so you know Torts will have the Blueshirts set to finish this off on a positive note before hosting Toronto in what should be a big show for Thursday’s home opener.

PICK: NY Rangers


Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens (-150, 5)

Both the Panthers and Habs have shuffled their rosters early this season.

The Panthers sent Nathan Horton and minor leaguer Steven Reinprecht to Vancouver in exchange for Mikael Samuelsson and Marco Sturm. With Samuelsson and Sturm both free agents in the offseason, it’s essentially a salary cap move to clear Horton’s $4.25 million annual contract off the books and word has it the deal hit both Booth and the Panthers hard.

Booth was well-liked in the Florida dressing room and Sturm and Samuelsson won’t add much to the team offensively.

Meanwhile, Montreal has been hammered by injuries with Scott Gomez (upper body), Andrei Markov (knee), Jaroslav Spacek (ribs) and Chris Campoli (hamstring) are all on the shelf.

“When the season starts, we want to start out with an early jump on things,” captain Brian Gionta told reporters after Saturday’s 5-4 overtime loss to Toronto. “That’s not where we are. But let’s face it, we’re six games in and there’s plenty of hockey to be played. There’s concern … but you can’t dwell on it. You have to find a way to change it and move forward.”

This could be a sloppy one. We’ll take the over.

PICK: Over

[Mr. IWS]

Monday’s Betting Tips: Big MNF Action On Ravens

WHO'S HOT

NFL: The over is 5-1 in Baltimore’s last six games overall.

NHL: Philadelphia has won five of its last six meetings with Toronto.

NHL: Montreal has won four of its last five against Florida.

WHO'S NOT

NFL: Jacksonville is 3-10 against the spread in its last 13 games against teams with a winning record.

NHL: The under is 0-7 in Toronto’s last seven road games.

NHL: Florida is 5-16 in its last 21 road games.

KEY STAT

59-7 – The Baltimore Ravens head into Monday night’s game in Jacksonville riding a 4-1 run both straight up and against the spread thanks in large part to outscoring their opposition 59-7 in the first quarter this season.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

James Reimer, Toronto Maple Leafs - Reimer is expected to miss Monday's game against the Philadelphia Flyers, according to a report by TSN. Reimer left Saturday's game against the Montreal Canadiens with a minor neck injury. Reimer, who lost his mask on the exchange with Brian Gionta, was dazed following the collision. He was replaced by Jonas Gustavsson, who turned aside 15 of 18 shots to lift the Maple Leafs to a 5-4 overtime victory. Reimer did not practice on Sunday and is considered day-to-day.

GAME OF THE DAY

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+10, 40)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

"Listen, this is gonna be really quick. I'm not taking any questions. We sucked from head to toe, and we need to move by it. So I'm not going to dissect with you guys. I know you have to do your job, but I'm not answering any questions. OK?" – New York Rangers coach John Tortorella in yet another post-game rant to the media following Saturday’s 2-0 loss at Edmonton. The Rangers continue their western road swing Monday in Winnipeg.

TIPS AND NOTES

As of Sunday evening, more than 71 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors were supporting the Baltimore Ravens as 10-point favorites at Jacksonville Monday night. Most books had the Ravens set around -8 at the open but that line has been moving steadily since. It dropped to as low as -7.5 last week before ballooning over the weekend. The total is up to 40 after opening at 39.

Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov told reporters that he and the team’s defense are still struggling to get on the same page following Saturday’s 4-2 loss to St. Louis. A miscommunication on a dump-in behind Philadelphia’s net resulted in St. Louis’ fourth goal. “Bad communication,” Bryzgalov told reporters. “Somebody yelled like, ‘I get it,’ and [they] don’t get it. In the future, I hope it doesn’t cost us like this.”

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was in walking boot following Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. An MRI is expected on Monday, but the team is being tight-lipped about Stafford's condition, Fox Sports' Jay Glazer reported on Sunday night. "We're going to check him out," Detroit coach Jim Schwartz said after the game. "(We'll) look at his knee and his ankle. We'll see where he is this week." The top overall pick of the 2009 draft, Stafford appeared to suffer an injury while throwing an incomplete pass as he turned the ball over on downs in the latter stages of the game. Stafford completed 15 of 32 passes for 183 yards and a touchdown for Detroit (5-2), which suffered its second straight loss. Detroit is at Denver in Week 8.

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Monday

Play Texas (-120) over St. Louis (Top MLB Play)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

CJ Wilson has won 27 of the last 37 home games and he has also won 28 of the last 44 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. CJ Wilson has won 4 of the last 6 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he has an ERA of 3.24 in all games this season.

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NHL Hockey Monday

Play Winnipeg (+100) over NY Rangers (Top NHL Play)

[Mr. IWS]

APPLE HANDICAPPERS
Eddie Rambo
3* Texas Rangers/St Louis Cards Over 8

[Mr. IWS]

Red Dog Sports

Won last night with USA/Mexico over 133.5.

Canada vs. Argentina
Pan Am Games (women's basketball)
6:30pm eastern (EDT)
Monday 10/24/2011
Canada +10.5 (bet365)


I like Canada to stay within 10 points of Argentina. These two are playing for 5th place in the women's Pan Am Games in Mexico. Canada lost by 25 to Brazil in the opener, lost to Colombia by 59-57 and beat Jamaica badly (by 67). The game yesterday vs. Jamaica should give Canada some confidence.

Argentina did beat the USA in their opener by 58-55 but they were outrebounded by 46-23. They do get most of their points from Melissa Gretter, Reggiado and Flores. They only shoot 64% from the line. All of their games have been close:

beat USA 58-55
lost to Mexico 58-57
lost to Puerto Rico 73-70

The over/under in this game is 122.5 so they are expecting a low scoring game. I think we see a close game in the 59-56 range. Take the points with Canada as they should be able to rebound well and get points from Tatham, Pinske and Colley.

Oh, Canada +10.5