Tuesday 10/1/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#7 Stifling Heat	Not sure he's going to offer the 6/1 ML price, but he goes first out in a race that doesn't have much depth, and it definitely doesn't have any finishing punch on the page. Not sure he's going to need to be a star to win from a good debut draw against this crew.
#1 Complex Cat	He has some hustle from the fence, but his best chance probably comes from charging hard enough early to find the front and hoping to discourage the chasing players.
#4 Ol' Nelson	He's another who hasn't done much late in the lane, but maybe he has some room to bounce back as a cutback player after the two-turn try.
Race Summary	Stifling Heat draws well and gets a top rider in a modest spot, so he's likely to take some cash. That said, get a look at him on the track.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#6 Preach It Warrior	He stayed until midstretch last out in a slightly improved try at second asking, and I think there might still be a bit of upside in a spot without any serious pace signed on. Would like to see him have a go for it.
#5 Grand Morning	Stretchout player might be quick enough to avoid a deep finishing trip while moving around two turns, but he hasn't shown a whole lot to get excited about just yet. Tough call.
#3 Lake Cumberland	Finisher is probably the one to beat, but he has come along far too late in both starts to make any real dent. Bit worried about the potential race shape.
Race Summary	Lots of ways to go in this one, with #4 Vino Couragio coming off an improved effort and debuter #2 Risen Sun having a little appeal on the page. With all that accounted for, I still think Preach It Warrior might be tough on the front end if he can find it.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#3 Beads	She should get a perfect trip while tracking the pace with these on the move back around two turns, and maybe the price stays just playable enough?
#8 Little Miss Munny	She and the top choice have both had their share of chances, but this one is a pretty reliable finisher who tends to come along for a share. Figures in the mix again.
#1 Ennereilly	She is probably one of the ones while bringing Kentucky Downs and Del Mar form with her to this, but there is still nothing to get excited about on the page with three hard fades in as many American starts. Top team and company lines make her a player, but I can't get too excited here.
Race Summary	Beads might get the jump on deeper finishers, and she might be ready for a graduation run while moving back around two turns.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#7 SUENO PROFUNDO (2-1)	Drop, Ideal pace set-up, added ground could lead back to winners’ circle.
#1 MY MAN WOODY (9-2)	Seeks three-peat at this level for this barn since August claim.
#6 NAVY RULES (3-1)	Gets class relief, sheds 10 pounds, returns to distance at which he’s 3-for-4.
Race Summary	SUENO PROFUNDO unwound too late at 5-1/2F last out, but he blew past the dueling leaders to romp at this distance two starts back and should sit another good stalking trip today. Bet to win and place and play 7-1 and 7-6 exactas.

Parx - Race #2

#5 PEACH PERFECT (9-2)	Perfectly spotted for barn that re-claimed her, today’s Best Bet.
#3 SUMMARY JUDGMENT (6-5)	Has speed, Paco and 10 wins at Parx, but will need passing gear.
#2 DIXIE GROOVE (4-1)	First or second in 6 of 11 long-distance tests this year, all for higher tags.
Race Summary	PEACH PERFECT romped twice going a route of ground at Parx this year, gets class relief and gets plenty of pace to rally into for a barn that re-claimed her. She was outrun chasing the 8-to-5 co-favorites off a seven-week layoff, but should be heard from today. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #5

#8 ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR (7-2)	Has speed, can go the distance at inflated price on the class hike.
#4 VANELLOPE (4-1)	‘Took over’ from 5-2 leader at quarter pole in win, starts fresh off decent works.
#5 ALMA BRIHLA (9-2)	Upstaged in-the-money finishes at one mile with a victory two starts back.
Race Summary	ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR carried her speed to a win and two seconds in her last three main-track starts at 7F and beyond out of town. She could carry it a long way in this spot, despite taking a class jump. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5-8 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 7	$2 Daily Double (Races 7-8) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Optional Claiming $15,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $21,200 • Post: 9:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES)(W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. COMIDA COMIDA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COMIDA COMIDA: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BETTY'S SONG: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. TRAIN WRECK: Horse ranks in the top three i n average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MY BEST DAY EVER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse's average winning distance i s within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
4	COMIDA COMIDA	4/1	5/1
6	BETTY'S SONG	6/1	5/1
2	TRAIN WRECK	5/1	7/1
3	MY BEST DAY EVER	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	COMIDA COMIDA	4	4/1	Front-runner	87	80	78.2	76.8	66.8
6	BETTY'S SONG	6	6/1	Front-runner	81	89	74.2	74.6	65.1
3	MY BEST DAY EVER	3	6/1	Front-runner	75	71	72.2	69.4	58.4
2	TRAIN WRECK	2	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	86	75	65.4	72.0	65.0
5	BLUSHING BETTY	5	3/1	Stalker	78	79	77.2	75.6	71.6
1	TEMPLEMENT	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	90	78	54.6	73.2	67.2
7	MO CO GOLD	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	75	54.4	72.8	64.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 7	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 65 • Purse: $43,520 • Post: 5:16P
FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * NORTH TERRACE: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). NOBLE REIGN: Hors e has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MARSHAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MAGIC FACTOR: Horse r anks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	NORTH TERRACE	7/2	5/1
2	NOBLE REIGN	8/1	5/1
6	MARSHAL	4/1	7/1
7	MAGIC FACTOR	10/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	GIFT CERTIFICATE	8	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	37	35.1	35.1	27.6
2	NOBLE REIGN	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	56	26.5	53.1	48.6
6	MARSHAL	6	4/1	Trailer	0	0	43.6	59.7	57.2
7	MAGIC FACTOR	7	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	51.2	51.2	46.2

Unknown Running Style: NORTH TERRACE (7/2) [Jockey: Roman Evin A - Trainer: Lobo Paulo H], BLAMEITONBOURBON (9/2) [Jockey: De La Cruz Fernando - Trainer: Cox Brad H], REIGNITE (5/1) [Jockey: Asmussen Erik - Trainer: Asmussen Steven M], TRUTH BOMB (3/

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $13,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 PEMAQUID PETE 7/2
# 8 R ADMIRAL 5/2
# 6 TEMPUS 12/1

PEMAQUID PETE looks like the wager in here. The speed fig of 90 from his most recent affair looks competitive in here. The average class fig of 82 makes this horse tough to beat. Has earned strong Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. R ADMIRAL - His 85 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase Speed Figures here. Earned a formidable speed rating last time out. TEMPUS - Have to think this horse will run well following the quick return to the races.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - SA - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 83

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 DASHIN LEWEE 2/1
# 1 ROSALBA RDRGZ 5/2
# 5 NONE BAR ZEVI 8/1

DASHIN LEWEE has a very strong shot to take this race. The extreme drop in competition can only help this one this time out. He has very good class ratings, averaging 91, and has to be considered in here. Is a sharp contender based on numbers put up lately under today's conditions. ROSALBA RDRGZ - Looks quite good against this field and will probably be one of the front-runners. Should definitely be carefully examined in this event if only for the very good speed figure recorded in the last affair. NONE BAR ZEVI - Should best this group here, showing solid figures of late. Has been running very well lately and will almost certainly be on the lead early on.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:26pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#1 DON'T WAIT UP (ML=5/2)
#2 SIMOVITCH (ML=12/1)


DON'T WAIT UP - I sense a speed battle developing here. If that happens, this gelding will be in perfect stalking position to pick off the leaders. Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a big race today. You have to consider the solid works of late. SIMOVITCH - I figure that this race's shorter distance should help this gelding. You'll be generating profits left and right by turning your bankroll onto this jockey/trainer combination.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SIR MI TOLEE (ML=9/5), #6 KEITHSENDSHELLOOOO (ML=3/1), #3 MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT (ML=4/1),

SIR MI TOLEE - The favorite is shaky here with the lack of workouts. Finished first in his most recent race with a common speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. KEITHSENDSHELLOOOO - This runner made little impact last out finishing third. Don't see any hint of improvement in today's race. MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT - Difficult to bet on at 4/1 odds after the two most recent showings. The speed ratings continue to descend, 102/84/67. Not a positive signal.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 DON'T WAIT UP to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:48pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,500 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#5 SPEIGHTIEMAN (ML=6/1)
#2 SOLOMON VANDY (ML=9/2)


SPEIGHTIEMAN - This colt is in top form right now. Finished third in the last race and comes back rapidly. Ranks number one in the field in earnings per race. A powerful effort right here can add to that bankroll. SOLOMON VANDY - The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Straub. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JUSTICEONEMORETIME (ML=3/1), #4 WICKED GUS (ML=7/2), #7 PETE'S LEGACY (ML=4/1),

JUSTICEONEMORETIME - If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down frequently. WICKED GUS - Would have to get better off that third place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't win. Hard to play him on the top end. PETE'S LEGACY - Didn't do alot last time out of the box. Probably won't make a winning move in today's race. Not likely that the rating he garnered on September 14th will hold up in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 SPEIGHTIEMAN to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass