Thursday 10/3/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#6 Rock Tune	Mild concern about her inability to stay late, but she's not meeting a whole lot while trying this level for the first time, and she's drawn perfectly to prompt the other forward players who are likely to fold sooner than she is. Attacks and comes clear?
#1 Hope She Comes	She's short on excuses at this point in time, but her recent form is actually pretty competitive on paper against these. Could see her getting an OK trip inside, making her a reasonable enough alternative, especially if the price gets short on the top choice.
#4 Midnight in Prague	I suppose her better stuff keeps her in the frame while cutting back, but I just think the quicker tempo going short might force her to hustle a bit if she wants to have a run near the top where she does her best work.
Race Summary	Rock Tune should get a great trip to force the pace from the high draw, and I think there are a couple races on her page that suggest she might handle these without too much trouble.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#6 Noble Gem	I don't love him here, but I think the race shape should work in his favor as one of the few who seem to have any kind of semi-serious finishing ability. Could see a couple forward players hooking up and setting the stage for this one to get along late.
#2 R Chello	He could air here, but he has a habit of starting to fold up when confronted, and that might happen too early today for him to stick around to score. His best stuff *should* do the trick here, but he's tough to trust.
#3 Not Right Now	He and the one drawn widest both go first out with worktabs that don't seem to give a lot of clues on paper. Get a look at them both on the track, and note that the team is 2-for-27 in similar spots over the last year or so.
Race Summary	Noble Gem would benefit if one of these kept R Chello honest in the early going, and I wonder if he'll be able to pick up late while turning back out of what were presumably a couple tougher spots.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#9 Blameitonmymomma	I think a small handful of things need to go right for him to land the finale, but the price might be a touch better this time around in a spot where he could find himself on the front end without having to be all out to get there.
#6 Call the Ball	Something similar to that last one would probably make him tough here while coming back for the same price. He benefits if a couple of them hassle the top choice.
#1 Zamboni Warrior	Dropper doesn't feel like standout in what feels like a decent enough race for the level, especially with a potentially tricky trip waiting for him from the fence.
Race Summary	Think you can make a case for several of them in here, including #3 Youmustbea Weasley and the potential cutback underlay #11 Showdown King. Blameitonmymomma has some chance to speed pop this group, and I'm hoping she'll offer a midrange price on the board.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #3

#1 NANGA PARBAT (8-1)	Fits okay on best turf effort, good price offsets poor record in ‘amateur’ race.
#6 MIZTERGRANDCENTRAL (5-1)	Gets pace to run at if he changes tactics again, use in all gimmicks.
#3 ELFUEGOMASBRILANTE (3-1)	Finished ahead of ‘Nanga’ during three-race in-the-money streak.
Race Summary	NANGA PARBAT is a viable longshot from the rail in an amateur jockeys’ race. He’s 0-for-25 but has two competitive races on the Delaware lawn this summer to summon. He raced 5-wide on the first turn and ‘assumed command’ on the second turn but lost the stretch battle with the favorite at 7-1/2F, before he stretched out in distance, dueled and got caught by the favorite again. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-6 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#1 KITTY OF WAR (9-5)	Rallied in crowded field, led late, finished second, much shorter price today.
#4 MANDY’S MISS (7-2)	Good recent gate works at Parx, barn is 24-percent with maiden claimers.
#2 SANDI SUE (5-2)	Set pressured pace in 11-horse field before top one and others arrived on scene.
Race Summary	KITTY OF WAR bid 5-wide to lead at the eighth pole in her debut, only to get caught by another longshot. A move forward off that 6F effort makes her the one to beat at 5-1/2F today. Bet to win and place and play 1-2, 1-4 and 4-1 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #7

#2 GUILTED (8-1)	Earned decent speed figure for this group in troubled first start, worth a price stab.
#5 SKINNY JOEY (7-5)	Jock dismounted pre-race, horse sat perfect trip off duel, finished clear second.
#3 BUT NOW AM FOUND (4-1)	Flashed speed in MSW sprint at Saratoga, flashed it again in morning.
Race Summary	GUILTED, in tight on the backstretch in his debut, raced evenly when asked for run on the turn and was no match for a couple rivals he faces again. But he will get pace to run at and could factor at a big price Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $46,240 • Post: 4:14P
IND - R5 - (RAIL AT 12 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MS QUALITY CONTROL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in TrackMaster Power Rating. JANEY CREED: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HIDDEN CLASS: Horse has the h ighest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LIFE ADVICE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
7	MS QUALITY CONTROL	9/5	9/2
15	JANEY CREED	7/2	5/1
11	HIDDEN CLASS	15/1	9/1
8	LIFE ADVICE	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	LIFE ADVICE	8	5/1	Front-runner	86	84	97.6	74.9	60.4
3	BIG DIG	3	10/1	Front-runner	86	80	83.5	77.6	68.1
6	YAY HOORAY	6	4/1	Front-runner	85	85	68.2	74.0	59.5
5	DREAM ON STORMY	5	30/1	Alternator/Front-runner	77	74	73.0	76.8	58.3
1	TIDAL TACTICS	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	78	93.1	76.3	61.3
4	BREEZING ALONG	4	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	79	82.6	75.8	59.3
15	JANEY CREED	15	7/2	Trailer	87	89	71.1	81.7	72.2
7	MS QUALITY CONTROL	7	9/5	Trailer	90	87	65.6	81.6	75.1
11	HIDDEN CLASS	11	15/1	Trailer	80	74	64.5	75.8	65.8
9	JUS PRESS STAR	9	30/1	Trailer	68	53	41.7	51.2	28.2
13	MURPHY'S GIFT	13	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	73	77.7	71.1	63.6
10	UNBRIDLED TALENT	10	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	69	74.0	60.8	33.8
12	BEACH CRUISER	12	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	85	71.6	71.6	49.1
2	DE LUNA	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	68	66.5	67.2	50.7
14	BOYNE VALLEY	14	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	73	57.6	57.6	37.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 6	Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Maiden Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 18 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. DRA. NADAL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DRA. NADAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. ALICIA EMILIA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SOLEIMAR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figur e at the distance/surface.
7	DRA. NADAL	5/1	5/2
4	ALICIA EMILIA	3/1	9/1
2	SOLEIMAR	2/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	MALICE RIVER	8	7/2	Front-runner	0	0	31.2	9.6	1.6
2	SOLEIMAR	2	2/1	Front-runner	21	11	28.2	8.8	0.0
5	THAT'S MY WORD	5	15/1	Front-runner	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	DRA. NADAL	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	21	7	32.6	13.1	10.6
3	JUSTICE JEWELL	3	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	22	3	26.0	8.4	0.4
4	ALICIA EMILIA	4	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	21	11	17.8	10.6	2.1
1	MY BEAUTIFUL LADY	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	LA LOLLIPOP	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $49000 Class Rating: 89

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR MD SIRED OR MD BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER SINCE AUGUST 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SWEET HEIDELBERG 30/1
# 4 STICKWITHTHECOLORS 5/1
# 3 SPENCERIAN 3/1

I think SWEET HEIDELBERG is a solid selection and is a respectable value-based wager given the 30/1 line. With Amador on top her, this mare will almost certainly be able to break out sharply in here. STICKWITHTHECOLORS - Ought to go to the lead and may never look back. Has respectable Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. SPENCERIAN - Had one of the strongest Equibase speed figs of this group in her last race. Should best this field here, showing formidable figures of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 68

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 IMA EC WAVE 5/2
# 3 MONEY HUNNY 8/5
# 9 BRAVITA 5/1

I think IMA EC WAVE is a very good choice. She has very good class ratings, averaging 73, and has to be considered in here. Jockey's recent return on investment figures make this filly a very good bet. MONEY HUNNY - Extra focus caused by blinkers change (going on today) likely to result in a big race. Has a sharp shot for this race if you like back class. BRAVITA - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Remington Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:24pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#4 MR. BOOP (ML=4/1)
#7 SKATER (ML=2/1)


MR. BOOP - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Triana gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. Entered last at Lone Star Park in a race with a class figure of 57. Dropping considerably in Equibase class figure this time out puts him in a solid position today. With 'blinkers-on' this gelding should be very competitive. SKATER - I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. Was in a $50,000 Maiden Claiming race at Churchill Downs in the last race. That race had a class number of 71 and he is moving down in this field. A certain serious competitor. The last fig of 39 is the highest last race speed figure in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TOO MUCH SPEED (ML=7/2), #6 DRAMA KING (ML=5/1), #3 BAR HOPPIN BILLY (ML=6/1),

TOO MUCH SPEED - Awfully hard to play this mount when he hasn't been showing any gumption of late. This gelding garnered a rating in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. DRAMA KING - Doubtful for this one to make an impact with no recent good showings in a sprint affair. In this type of situation, this racer's inability to make up ground in the last race is a matter of concern. BAR HOPPIN BILLY - In this circumstance, this vulnerable equine's inability to make up ground in the last affair is a reason for concern. Not easy to wager on any horse in a short distance affair at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last two months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 MR. BOOP to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Presque Isle Downs - Race #5 - Post: 4:48pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#8 SHAKIN IT UP LARRY (ML=8/1)
#3 KOTYLOS (ML=6/1)
#6 GOOSE HUNTER (ML=7/2)
#2 VALENTINE BUG (ML=9/2)


SHAKIN IT UP LARRY - When Martinez and Russell partner up on animals the ROI has been fabulous at +22. If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. Racing over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this one at the top of my list of strong contenders. That recent bullet 59.0 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top performance today. KOTYLOS - This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +331. This gelding is very familiar with the winner's circle at Presque Isle Downs. I expect a repeat appearance right here. Came home fast last out at Presque Isle Downs. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this field. GOOSE HUNTER - This gelding is very familiar with the winner's circle at Presque Isle Downs. I expect a repeat performance in today's race. While the finish was disappointing, this horse made a good stretch move in the last race at Presque Isle Downs. Has to do better in this field. Ran a quick time for the last quarter on September 20th at Presque Isle Downs. Anything close today should get the job done. VALENTINE BUG - Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Presque Isle Downs. Could add another win in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 HEAVY POUR (ML=9/5), #1 HOLD MY BEER BRO (ML=6/1),

HEAVY POUR - No wager value on this one at the likely odds of 9/5. HOLD MY BEER BRO - He showed not much at all in the last affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 SHAKIN IT UP LARRY is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [2,3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	8 with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	8 with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6