Friday 10/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:30 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 4, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

1-Vibrance (7/2)-Couldn't protect the rail in last versus better but now drops to a level for success. Could get the top and not look back this time.
2-Easy To Please( 5/2)-Looking for 2 straight after winning off a cozy trip. Does step-up but this field is beatable for the Stratton brothers and could get a similar trip.
5-Lucky Artist A (4-1)-This 11-year-old comes off a win against better and this won't be a layup but should fit well here. Steve Smith has done good work with the Bucci trainee and could offer a square price.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

3-Lit De Rose (9/2)-Could be in-line for a close-up seat off the gate. Can charge home, the pace should be honest and might tackle the leader at a solid price.
4-Silk Cloud A (5-1)-George Brennan left in a hurry in last, got on the engine and faded badly down the lane. Stratton takes the lines here and he has done well with this mare. Looking for a price and could get an efficient trip.
6-Coachellabound N (3-1)-The Bucci trainee has been in the hunt every week except last time. Started slowly, was 10-lengths back at the 1st call and finished 4th. Will look for a bounce back effort as Jason Bartlett will be doing the steering.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Fancy Nancy Lopez (9/2)-Last time, Nancy tried to take control and make every call a winning one. That's not a typical strategy so maybe that race was a tightener for tonight. Not much form to chew on with this field and the price should be right to take a swing.
3-Oh Boy (2-1)-Travis Alexander pupil banked over $120k as a 4-year-old and hasn't had nearly the same success this year. Not loving the short price but has 11 wins over the past 2 years. The others in this field have a total of only 12 pictures for all of 2024.

Race 10 10:00 PM EST

1-Miss Dottie Mae (6/5)-Gets post relief and has cashed checks all year against better. Not loving the short price but should be a main player from the rail against this crew.
5-Paladio (8-1)-This will be the 4th straight start at Yonkers, gets class relief, and could be used off the gate to land in a close-up seat. This will be a test for the 3-year-old but has won 2 of 6 here and should be a price.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2,5/3,4,6/2,3/1,5
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:30 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/04/24

October 4, 2024

Pick-6 Carryover Analysis/Strategies (races 4-9)
Friday, October 4, 2024

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket/Prime Play: 6-Legal Fiction
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Already a two-time winner in her brief career, unbeaten Legal Fiction remains eligible to this first level allowance main track dash for 2-year-olds because she doesn't meet the purse earnings clause in the race conditions, and she'll have much in her favor at this elongated sprint distance from her cozy outside draw due to the fact that the D. O’Neill-trained filly employs a highly effective stalk-pounce-and-go style that almost certainly will ensure a trouble-free trip. She toyed with her outclassed foes at Fresno, but that race was less than two weeks so the only concern is the short rest of 13 days since that outing. However, with speed figures that are fastest in the field and with the possibility of another forward move, the daughter of I’ll Have Another seems like a logical Pick-6 carryover single.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Cullen J
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Cullen J ran better than the line will show in his debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar and seems certain to step forward with that bit of experience behind him. The son of Sir Prancealot gets off the rail today after displaying good speed to always be within range before staying on well through the lane to wind up a respectable third. The R. Baltas-trained colt is facing what appears to be a softer group of maidens and based on our pace projection should be in the first flight throughout, maybe even on the lead. His morning line of 7/5 doesn’t offer much value, but you can use him as a single in the various rolling exotics with a fair degree of confidence.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 8-Arromax; 4-Supreme Coast; 2-Bowtie Boys
Other Contenders: 3-Getemdusty; 7-Classic Alphie.

Forecast: This bottom rung maiden claiming router looks borderline inscrutable with nothing to trust, so a spread in rolling exotic play is in order. Arromax is a one-paced grinder with no acceleration, but his speed figures fit with these, so he projects to be a major contender. Trouble is, he’s been a beaten favorite in his last pair and in both cases he failed to take advantage of the help he had up front. Supreme Court is another with a similar style – he has never displayed any real turn of foot – but in a weak affair a repeat of his runner-up effort (beaten a head) last time out at Del Mar charts quite well here. However, low profile connections don’t inspire confidence. Bowtie Boys stretches out for the first time and could improve enough to be a serious threat, though his sprint numbers aren’t inspiring. But like we always say, if they’re ever going to run well two turning, it’ll be in their first try.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Just Nails; 6-Tom’s Regret
Other Contenders: 4-Speed Lane; 8-Kitty Kitana (GB).

Forecast: The rail draw in these Hillside turf sprints isn’t ideal, but Just Nails has a proper stalking style, so if she can secure a comfortable second flight position she should fire a big shot. Winless in five career starts over the lawn but second in three of those and first or second in seven of 10 grass outings overall, she retains “win rider” E. Maldonado and shows a bullet half mile breeze (:46 4/5) on dirt just a few days ago to keep her on edge. The D. O’Neill-trained filly is solid on numbers and the deserved morning line (2-1) favorite. Tom’s Regret is interesting. Runner-up in both of her grass starts and bred to prefer that surface, she returns to turf after facing considerably tougher competition is a long series of dirt outings. Her only prior start over this tricky downhill course resulted in a narrow second (beaten a neck) in the Senorita Stakes-G3 last year, and a repeat of that race today likely could very well be good enough. We’ll include these two on our main tick and then protect with the potentially dangerous Speed Lane (route-to-sprint angle with a class drop) and Kitty Kitana (just claimed for $100,000 by J. Sadler).

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8-Saltwater Cowboy; 1-Navy Man; 7-Jerry’s Spirit
Other Contenders : 3-Don’t Hit Me Bash; 5-Mischelof

Forecast: Here’s another fairly wide open affair that offers several possibilities. Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Saltwater Cowboy is lightly raced and improving and was quite sharp when finally breaking his maiden in his sixth lifetime outing at Del Mar last month. The son of Mastery had raced exclusively on turf prior to switching surfaces for the first time and in the process earned a career top speed figure while enjoying an ideal second flight, stalking journey that earned him eligibility to this starter allowance dirt miler. Based on figures, he’s a strong fit with these. Navy Man was once well regarded but has been a huge disappointment, so his connections drop him into a seller for the first time while stretching him again. He’ll likely employ pace setting/pressing tactics from his favorable rail draw, and with J. Hernandez staying aboard he’s worth tossing in. Jerry’s Spirit earned a giant figure when easily beating maiden $40,000 foes at Los Alamitos in just his second career start three weeks ago. These are tougher and his ability to handle two turns is unknown, but based on numbers he could be dangerous, especially if he can secure a trip as the controlling speed. Don't Hit Me Bash and Mischelof have enough credentials to toss in somewhere.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: A
Main Ticket/Prime Play: Sea Runner
Other contenders: none

Forecast: Sea Runner, a two-year-old half-sister to Johannes with plenty of potential, returns to the maiden ranks after an excellent third place finish in an infinitely tougher spot in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar last month. Back with maidens today after improving her Beyer speed figures by 23 points behind Breeders’ Cup-bound Thought Process, the daughter of Gun Runner found her best stride too late to finish eagerly in a hot affair and really won’t have to improve much (though we suspect she will) in today’s maiden grass affair. The barn’s “go-to” rider U. Rispoli stays aboard and should have the T. Yakteen-trained filly along in plenty of time as a Prime Play and logical Pick-6 single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:31 AM

Keeneland Pick 4 for Friday, Oct. 4

October 4, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

KEENELAND PICK 4
Friday, October 4, 2024

Keeneland’s opening day card of the Fall Meet this Friday, Oct. 4, makes the grade by anyone’s standards. The Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes and Grade 2 Jessamine will feature 2-year-old fillies at 1-1/16 miles on the main track and turf, respectively, preceded by the Grade 2 Phoenix at 6F. It’s all part of a 50-cent Late Pick 4 that carries one million in reward points in 1st Bet’s Hit & Split promo. Here’s a closer look:

KEE 7th race (4:12 p.m. EST) -- FEDERAL JUDGE couldn’t have been more impressive than he was in a 6-1/2F allowance win at Saratoga, cruising to a clear lead, finding gears when needed and powering away from the field in the stretch. He is re-united with Prat and shortens up to his maiden-breaking distance in lieu of his first stakes win. NAKATOMI, runner-up in this race last year, showed speed from the rail in the G-1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga, backed off speedball Skelly (10-18, $1.7 million), a seven-time wire-to-wire stakes victor, then caught up in the final furlong to win. It was his first race in four months after he finished a troubled and fast-closing third in the G-1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, a return trip home that often spells doom for American-based runners. He fired a pair of :59-and-change bullet workouts to prepare for the $350,000 Phoenix for the 27-percent ‘repeat’ barn of trainer Wesley Ward. HERE MI SONG, a G-3 winner at 7F in his only start at Keeneland in April 2023, posted triple-digit Beyers in his last two starts, beating two sharp next-out winners in a minor stake at 6-1/2F, then finishing third in the $300,000 Louisville Thoroughbred Society at Churchill Downs, 1-1/4 lengths behind the aforementioned Skelly.
KEE 8th race (4:44 p.m. EST) -- Sixteen 2-year-old fillies are entered but only 12 will run in the $350,000 Jessamine at 1-1/16 miles on the turf. The road to the winners’ circle could have begun at Kentucky Downs for two smashing first-out winners, who navigated different trips. ISLE OF CAPRI blasted to the lead, accelerated quickly in early stretch and won by 4 lengths in 1:15.2, only 3/5 of a second slower than allowance boys but 3/5 faster than older Maiden Special Weight fillies and mares on the same card. DESTINO D’ORO advanced 5-wide on the turn, inhaled the tiring leaders in the stretch to win going away at one mile and will appreciate the added ground.
KEE 9th race (5:16 p.m. EST) -- The 1-2 finishers in the G-1 Spinaway at Saratoga will reunite in the $600,000 Alcibiades, a key prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies next month. IMMERSIVE got the money in the Spinaway, rallying 6-wide on a very muddy track to win going away in the final furlong at 7F. But QUIET SIDE had the tougher trip, breaking out at the start, pressing a contentious pace in the 4-path and emerging with a clear stretch lead before tiring. Both are bred to handle more distance, a key note as all eight entrants make their two-turn debut. CONTINUITY beat two non-descript fields at 6F to start her career – her rivals are 9/0-0-2 since then with a top 54 Beyer on dirt -- but she has the bloodlines to go longer and improved her Beyer speed figure by 41 points with a sustained 4-wide rally. She did enough to earn a 20-1 longshot spot on the ticket.
KEE 10th race (5:48 p.m. EST) -- It’s one thing when 9 of the 12 entrants in the main body of this 5-1/2F turf allowance arrive from different tracks. It’s another thing when they are a combined 20-for-49 on the lawn, when half the field carries six-figure grass bankrolls, when four won in their last start with an average 81 Beyer and when two others were stakes-placed. It’s an “ALL” punch in the final leg of the Pick 4.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
KEE 7th Race: 1, 4
KEE 8th Race: 2, 6
KEE 9th Race: 1, 7, 8
KEE 10th Race: ALL
Cost: $72

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:31 AM

Dawn Lupul: Fraser Downs Bet $50, Get $10 Picks | Fri. 10/4

October 3, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

This October, get in on the action with an exciting bonus offer at Fraser! Every Friday, bet $50 or more, and you’ll receive a $10 bonus. It’s the perfect way to kick off your weekend while enjoying thrilling racing action. Don’t miss your chance to boost your bankroll—make your bets and claim your $10 bonus every Fraser Friday.

To assist your handicapping, Fraser Downs track handicapper Dawn Lupul has provided her full-card selections for Friday.

Race 1: 3,1,4

Race 2: 6,7,3

Race 3: 2,5,4

Race 4: 3,6,1

Race 5: 7,2,5

Race 6: 2,5,1

Race 7: 1,3,4

Race 8: 1,6,2

Race 9: 3,5,1

Race 10: 3,8,7

HOW IT WORKS

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Friday, October 11

Friday, October 18

Friday, October 25

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All bet types offered at Fraser are eligible.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:34 AM

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday

October 3, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The Keeneland Fall Meet is without question one of my favorite meets of the year. Not only does it start out with a bang over the first few days, but there are great opportunities for horseplayers on a regular basis throughout the stand. The stakes races and the full field wide-open two-turn turf races come to mind first, but the 2YO maiden special weights and the high-level allowance and claiming races on dirt are clearly worth our time as well.

To add to the autumn festivities this year in the Lexington area, XpressBet and 1st/Bet have launched a $1M Rewards Points Late Pick 4 Hit/Split for all seventeen days of the meet. Just register for the promotion, piece together the winners, and earn your share of those rewards points in addition to the regular track payout. With that in mind, let’s dive into the Saturday Late Pick 4 that includes three Grade 1 events.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 8: First Lady (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Chili Flag; 10 Ag Bullet; 4 Gina Romantica
Backups: 2 Tarawa

Forecast: There is little doubt the pace will be honest in this year’s First Lady given the presence of #10 Ag Bullet. The Twirling Candy filly stretches out to two-turns after being hammered down to 5-2-favoritism last out in the Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs and winning for absolute fun. The Richard Baltas trainee has shown the ability to get a mile before, but not against this level of competition. That said, she is a gal on the improve and worth serious consideration in her first start over the Keeneland lawn.

Trainer Chad Brown has won this race six years in a row and once again holds an extremely strong hand in the 2024 edition of the First Lady. #4 Gina Romantica won this race last year at odds of 11-1. She will not be close to that price despite failing at odds-on last out in the Ballston Spa (G2), but has shown an affinity for this turf course and projects to get a favorable trip on the cutback. Her stablemate #8 Chili Flag rattled off three straight wins earlier this year, including a win in the Just A Game (G1), but had no real shot when stablemate #11 Whitebeam walked on the lead in the Diana (G1). The 5YO mare has been freshened up and should be rolling late under Tyler Gaffalione. #2 Tarawa is the wild-card. She makes her first start in the States for Dermot Weld and could be the one making the last move.

Race 9: Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Handsome Pants; 5 East Avenue
Backups: 1 Ferocious
Forecast: #1 Ferocious is listed as the 8-5-morning line favorite after re-rallying to finish second beaten half a length in the Hopeful (G1) last month. The extremely pricey son of Flatter dominated over the off track on debut and is hard to knock on paper, but visually underwhelmed in his first stakes try last month. The colt was under a ride early on and it appeared he would be off the board at 3 to 5, but ended up passing the majority of the field in the end. He is a tough read, but swallowing the chalk seems less than ideal.

#5 East Avenue was bet down to 6-5-favoritism on debut at Ellis Park for Brendan Walsh and ran to his price. The well-bred Godolphin homebred has to deal with plenty of others that want to be on or near the lead, but his class and ability are apparent. #4 Handsome Pants feels like the value play. The Daredevil colt got a perfect trip under Brian Hernandez Jr. in his debut score at Churchill Downs last month, but I am not sure I want to hold that against him. Not only, did he show serious professionalism winning at two-turns on debut, but he could get a similar trip on Saturday. He is my top choice given his likely off odds.

Race 10: Coolmore Turf Mile (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 More Than Looks
Backups: 9 Carl Spackler

Forecast: Trainer Todd Pletcher looks to win this event for his third consecutive year, but it is Chad Brown with 2-1-morning line favorite, #9 Carl Spackler. The 4YO colt has always been well meant, but put forth the best effort of his career last out in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1). The E Five Racing Thoroughbreds runner should have another favorable voyage with not much speed signed on in this year’s Coolmore Turf Mile. He is the obvious horse to beat, but I expect him to be a very popular single in the sequence.

#3 More Than Looks ran a well-beaten second to Carl Spackler last out at the Spa, but that was his first race off the layoff. He may not get a fast first half-mile to run at once again, but is all but certain to take a big step forward after shaking off the rust in August. If they over bet the chalk, I can see placing a Win wager on More Than Looks. Either way, I will use both with a preference to the late running Cherie DeVaux trainee who is likely to knock plenty of folks out as the second or third choice if he runs them down in the lane.

Race 11:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Nyquist Frequency; 5 Eglise; 7 It’s My Life
Backups: None

Forecast: The card concludes with a MSW event for 3YOs+ where #5 Eglise looms large after a pair of near misses for trainer Brian Lynch. The fact the son of Frosted failed to get the job done in both of those starts would normally worry me a bit, but in both efforts, it was way back to third. Furthermore, it is not as if he lost as a short-priced favorite in either try. He is difficult to toss, but I will use a couple of price options as well.

#2 Nyquist Frequency makes his first start as a 3YO for trainer Jordan Blair. He failed to cross the wire first in his three efforts as a 2YO, but ran well against better groups than he encounters here. At a huge price, he is a must use. #7 It’s My Life also intrigues. The Into Mischief colt ran well in a live MSW event at Gulfstream Park this winter, but went to the sidelines after. He came back in late August and ran a solid fourth in his comeback race over the Kentucky Downs lawn. Now he moves back to what is likely to be his preferred surface.

Good luck on this incredible card on Saturday!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town
PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 1	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 1-2) Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 61 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 7:00P
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. BOLD ROCK is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOLD ROCK: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MANNY TOO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	BOLD ROCK	9/5	6/5
8	MANNY TOO	2/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	MANNY TOO	8	2/1	Alternator/Front-runner	57	51	42.6	39.6	33.6
2	BOLD ROCK	2	9/5	Stalker	65	56	57.8	55.5	52.0
7	BABY BOSS ALLEN	7	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	41.0	38.5	30.5
3	SAPPHIRUS	3	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	15.4	35.6	31.1
4	JACK'S ALOHA	4	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	50.2	31.3	19.3
6	OUR BRIGHTEST STAR	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	41.5	29.1	17.6
1	JOHN'S NOTION	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	37.5	29.8	15.8
5	DIRECT APPEAL	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.3	33.8	23.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park
PURCHASE

Arapahoe Park - Race 3	W/P/S/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Allowance • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 1:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF 3 RACES LIFETIME OR COLORADO BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GOLD MAGIC is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOLD MAGIC: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. H orse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. THREE FOR THREE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in averag e Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	GOLD MAGIC	5/2	5/2
1	THREE FOR THREE	7/2	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	GOLD MAGIC	2	5/2	Front-runner	83	80	88.1	70.9	67.9
4	SKY CLOUD	4	10/1	Stalker	80	69	70.0	72.8	69.3
1	THREE FOR THREE	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	92	87	28.5	68.2	61.7
3	FERRARI RED	3	2/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	64	50.3	58.6	51.6
5	OUR BUBBY BOY	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	61	38.9	42.7	33.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:35 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $61000 Class Rating: 97

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 PALEO'S PRINCESS 2/1
# 6 MISTICA TRAVIESA (CHI) 5/1
# 8 BUSTIN BULLET 5/2

PALEO'S PRINCESS is the best bet in this race. Hernandez has this mare running well and is a respectable choice based on the decent Equibase Speed Figs recorded in sprint races lately. With one of the top riders in terms of gains at the window, don't count this mare out. Ran a very solid last race. BUSTIN BULLET - Joseph has her trained solidly to break rapidly out of the gate. Earned a very good speed figure last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $350000 Class Rating: 89

JESSAMINE S. PRESENTED BY KEENELAND SALES KEE - R8 - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED 6/1
# 14 SHE'S GOT WILL 8/1
# 8 MAY DAY READY 8/1

TOTALLY JUSTIFIED has a formidable shot to take this race. Going in a turf route race gives this filly a very strong shot. SHE'S GOT WILL - When Casse uses Davis there's a good chance for winnings. MAY DAY READY - Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying very good figs lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 80 under similar conditions. I like the jock on this filly - very strong chance to win the race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,400 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#3 SO CALLED VACATION (ML=3/1)

SO CALLED VACATION - Ranked the highest in earnings per start. Another indication that this horse outclasses this field. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This gelding should do better hitting the main track today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SOUPER ICONIC (ML=5/2), #6 SAINT TEMPLAR (ML=4/1), #4 CATHOLIC JACKIE (ML=6/1),

SOUPER ICONIC - Registered a most unsatisfactory speed figure last race out in a $7,500 Maiden Claiming race on Sep 20th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that number. SAINT TEMPLAR - Will probably be stranded with way too much to do down the homestretch. CATHOLIC JACKIE - This gelding finished out of the money on August 24th and wasn't near the winner in the last race either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 SO CALLED VACATION on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race #6 - Post: 8:55pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#3 STORMS LAST (ML=8/1)
#4 MR PELOTON (ML=9/2)

STORMS LAST - Classic angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Should run big today. This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +31. Look at this pattern of improvement. 60/64/77 are the last three speed figures. MR PELOTON - I like to play this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice race within the last month. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit. This fine animal is in great demand coming off two claims in his last two starts. Don't overlook this gelding in your wagering today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BIG MUCKITY (ML=7/5), #5 CIELO'S KNIGHT (ML=5/2), #6 MEGA SHACK (ML=4/1),

BIG MUCKITY - If you keep betting these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disillusioned most every time. CIELO'S KNIGHT - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last couple months. Not the greatest of signs. MEGA SHACK - Doubtful that this horse will finish better than he did last time when placing fifth. I find it hard to play any thoroughbred in a short distance affair at 4/1 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last couple of months.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MR PELOTON - This gelding is stepping up with each event. He has shown a notable points increase in his speed ratings over his last two races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 STORMS LAST is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip