Sunday 10/6/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:32 AM

Meet the Contenders: Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe | Sunday

October 3, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

On the shortest of lists for the world’s most important and prestigious horse races, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe will be renewed Sunday morning (EDT) from France’s Longchamp Racecourse. First run in 1920, more than a century of legends have been made over its mile and one-half journey. You can watch and wager on the Arc with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET. Post time for the main event is 10:20 am ET, while the Longchamp card begins at 7:55 am ET.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Arc de Triomphe in post position order (Race 5 from Longchamp):

#1-ZARAKEM: Though a winner in 6 of 12 starts, his 11th-place finish in the Juddmonte International last out at York brings the Group 1 quality of this Group 2 winner into question. Runner-up in June’s Group 1 Prince of Wales’s at Royal Ascot did win the Group 2 Prix d’Harcourt over this Longchamp course in April. Cristian Demuro, who piloted Ace Impact to Arc glory last year and Sottsass to the 2020 crown, rides.

#2-FANTASTIC MOON: German 4-year-old won his nation’s Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden last month and has been in strong form since summer. But note he was last of 9 at Longchamp in April in the Group 1 Prix Ganay and 11th of 15 in last year’s renewal of the Arc de Triomphe. Rene Pechulek, winner of the ’21 Arc with Torquator Tasso, rides.

#3-BLUESTOCKING: Juddmonte home-bred filly was a six-figure supplement to enter the Arc late in the mix. Her Group 1 Prix Vermeille victory September 15 helped propel her into the Arc. That win was over the mile and one-half trip at Longchamp as she’ll be tasked Sunday. Runner-up to Goliath in the Group 1 King George this summer fits her against top males. Rossa Ryan will be in the saddle.

#4-AVENTURE: Three-year-old filly exits a close runner-up in the Prix Vermeille over this course and distance September 15 behind Arc rival Bluestocking. She’ll try to follow 2017 Arc winner Enable as recent sophomore fillies to find Arc success. The daughter of Sea the Stars has won 3 of 7 in the colors of Wertheimer & Frere. Stephane Pasquier, winner of the ’06 Arc, has the call.

#5-SOSIE: Second-favorite in the international betting markets for the Arc, this is the colt counterpart to Aventure – another 3-year-old by Sea the Stars for Wertheimer & Frere. His third in the French Derby is his only defeat in 4 starts this year, recently adding the Group 2 Prix Neil over this course and distance. Andre Fabre trains and looks to add to his record 8 Arc victories. Maxime Guyon rides in search of his first.

#6-SURVIE: Three-year-old filly was no match for Bluestocking when seventh in the September 15 Prix Vermeille over this course and distance. She is a Group 2 winner locally at the Arc trip in July, her only win from 5 starts this year. Nicolas Clement, who trained 1990 Arc winner Saumarez, will have Tom Marquand in the saddle.

#7-DELIUS: Lightly raced 3-year-old colt for Jean-Claude Rouget won his first 3 starts prior to a third-place run in Longchamp’s 12-furlong Grand Prix de Paris in July. Returned from a freshening to be second to Sosie the Group 2 Prix Neil. Rouget knows his way around the Arc, winning last year with Ace Impact and in 2020 with Sottsass. Son of Frankel will be ridden by Ioritz Mendizabal, who seeks his first Arc.

#8-LOOK DE VEGA: Favored runner in the international betting markets for the Arc. The 2024 Group 1 French Derby winner saw his perfect mark end at 3 straight when finishing third to Sosie and Delius in the September 15 Group 2 Prix Neil at Longchamp when he found himself on the lead earlier than anticipated. Should be noted that he defeated Sosie in the French Derby at Chantilly. Trained by the father-son duo of Carlos and Yann Lerner. Regular rider Ronan Thomas returns.

#9-AL RIFFA: Trainer Joseph O’Brien’s 4-year-old is well-traveled in 4 starts this year from France to Saratoga to England to Germany most recently. He’s back to Longchamp, where he ran fourth in April’s Group 1 Prix Ganay. The 2022 Group 1 National Stakes-winning juvenile is 1-for-6 since that freshman season, getting back on the winning track August 11 in the Group 1 Goresser Preis von Berlin. Legendary Japenese rider Yutaka Take rides him for the first time Sunday.

#10-LOS ANGELES: Aidan O’Brien’s 2024 Group 1 Irish Derby winner has won 5 of 7 starts, all in the UK, and is third choice in the international betting markets for Arc victory. He exits a disappointing foray into the elite, elder horse ranks when fourth September 14 in the Group 1 Irish Champion when finishing on the hip of Arc rival Shin Emperor. Ryan Moore teamed with O’Brien to win the 2016 Arc with Found (both have 2 Arc wins overall).

#11-SHIN EMPEROR: Japanese-based and French-bred, this 3-year-old colt exits a third-place finish in the Group 1 Irish Champion at Leopardstown in his first of two races on the roadtrip. After starting his career 2-for-2, this year’s Japanese Derby third-place finisher has dropped 5 straight decisions. Acclaimed trainer Yoshito Yahagi turns the reins over to Ryusei Sakai, the connections American fans may recall from Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Forever Young this spring.

#12-SEVENNA’S KNIGHT: Eight-time Arc-winning trainer Andre Fabre brings this 4-year-old by Camelot into Sunday’s main event off a Longchamp Group 3 win September 8. Sevenna’s Knight has won 3 of his last 4 at the Group 2/Group 3 level, but his lone defeat with a distant sixth of 7 in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. Mickael Barzalona aims for his first Arc-winning ride.

#13-HAYA ZARK: Five-year-old is one of the veteran members of this year’s Arc with 20 prior starts, winning 6. Runner-up in Longchamp’s September 8 Group 3 La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte after 105 days on the sideline. Showed his best form by winning April’s Group 1 Prix Ganay over this course. Beat only 1 horse home in last year’s Arc when finishing 14th. Top-class jockey William Buck rides the longshot in his bid to win his first Arc de Triomphe.

#14-CONTINUOUS: Third Aidan O’Brien charge in the Arc lineup, this Japanese-bred has won 5 of 11 in the UK and France. Fifth in last year’s Arc while arguably in better form. Exits a third-place run in Longhcamp’s Group 2 Prix Foy on September 15, having prior won a Group 3 at home in Ireland. Christophe Soumillon rode last out in and retains the call in search of his third Arc victory (2003, 2008 prior).

#15-SUNWAY: French-based sophomore was seventh in this year’s French Derby to Arc rival Look De Vega and then second in the Irish Derby behind Arc opponent Los Angeles. Third most recently at Doncaster in the Group 1 St. Leger. He’s dropped all 6 starts returning from a 168-day winter break. Jockey Oisin Murphy has won many of the world’s biggest races, but has yet to secure an Arc trophy.

#16-MQSE DE DEVIGNE: Third Andre Fabre entrant in this year’s Arc as he bids for a record-padding ninth victory in this race. This 5-year-old mare has won 8 of 17, finishing first or second a remarkable 14 times. She’s won 4 in a row, including a trio of Group 1s at Deauville and Longchamp. Alexis Pouchin has been aboard for that streak and seeks his first Arc victory.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:49 AM

Jeff Siegel's Analysis - Prix de l'arc de Triomphe - 10/06/25

October 5, 2024

Prix de l’arc de Triomphe Analysis/Wagering Strategies
Sunday, October 6, 2024
By Jeff Siegel

The Skinny: First staged in 1920 and arguably the most prestigious race for older horses in Europe, the 12 furlong Prix de l’arc de Triomphe over the right handed Longchamp Race Course in Paris will have 16 starters on Sunday and is likely to be contested over soft, sticky going. Due to the suspect condition of the ground, this year’s renewal presents a truly challenging handicapping exercise.

The Main Contenders: We know Sosie loves the Longchamp layout (he’s a perfect three-for-three) and his form over wet grass has been clearly established, so this lightly raced son of the brilliant 2009 Arc winner Sea the Stars has much in his favor. The highly gifted sophomore – a winner overall of four of six starts - enters the race fresh from a thoroughly convincingly victory in the Prix Niel-G1 over this course and distance in mid-September in a performance that produced yet another career top (123) Racing Post Rating. On pure figures, the colt has never taken a backward move, so we doubt he’s reached his ceiling just yet.
And if that weren’t enough, Sosie hails from the Andre Fabre yard, which has produced no less than eight Arc victories. No trainer has won more. Punters planning to attack the exotics should strongly consider Fabre’s other two starters, Mqse De Sevigne (winner of six of her last seven starts) and the long shot Sevenna’s Knight (successful in three of his last four), at least underneath.

Others to consider: Trainer Aidan O’Brien is represented by two runners, the best of which is Los Angeles, beaten a length in the 10 furlong Irish Championship S.-G1 last time out but equally effective if not better over this longer journey and more than capable over a wet surface. Also with a reasonable look is the Frankel colt Delius, in the frame behind Sosie in both of his last two appearances, and certainly capable of getting at least piece of it.

The Gamble: The key to our success is getting Sosie home on top. We’ll use him in the straight pool and then hook him up top and bottom in the exotics with his stable mates Mqse De Sevigne and Sevenna’s Knight, and to a lesser extent with Los Angeles and Delius.

The Selections: 13-Sosie; 14-Los Angeles; 3-Mqse De Sevigne; 12-Delius.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 08:34 AM

Scott Shapiro: Sunday's Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 6, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

After a speed favoring Opening Day and an action-packed first Saturday, Keeneland closes their opening week of racing at the 2024 Fall Meet out with a strong 10-race card headlined by the $600k Spinster (G1). The 9-furlong affair for fillies and mares makes up the third leg of today’s late Pick 4, which once again offers a Hit & Split for 1 million rewards points on 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Just remember to register if you did not over the first couple of days. It is certainly worthwhile since it is continuing throughout the entire meet.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Tuscaloosa
Backups:7 Dr. Saikali; 4 Built

Forecast: This MSW event for 2YOs at 7-furlongs looks a little top heavy with a pair of first-time starters that are likely to take a good deal of money. Of them, I prefer #8 Tuscaloosa. The $700k Keeneland September 2023 purchase is out of a Malibu Moon mare that won her debut by six lengths. His trainer Rodolphe Brisset used to clearly give his horses a race, but is far more likely now to have his runners ready to fire a big shot on debut. I think this colt does just that.

#7 Dr Saikali is the 3-1-morning line favorite. The son of Bolt d’Oro is a half-brother to Fire On Time, who was 6 for 16, earned over $500K, and won her first start back in 2021. Trainer Brad Cox is obviously capable. #4 Built finished a well-beaten fourth on debut, but chased yesterday’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner East Avenue to the wire. A move forward is certainly capable for the Wayne Catalano trainee.

Race 8: Indian Summer S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Pharoah’s Dynasty; 2 Chasing Liberty
Backups: None

Forecast: As often is the case, there appears to be a lot of early speed signed on in this 5.5-furlong turf sprint for 2YOs. In theory this should work out well for #2 Chasing Liberty who came with a big late run and was deservingly placed first via DQ when we saw him last at Kentucky Downs. It remains to be seen though how much that huge effort last month took out of him. I will use the Rob Atras runner, but prefer a horse he handled by double-digit lengths last out in #6 Pharoah’s Dynasty. The Wesley Ward trainee dominated a field on debut at Aqueduct in June before chasing and tiring in the Juvenile Sprint. Look for a potential change in tactics with Frankie Dettori jumping aboard for the first time. Hopefully, one of the best to ever ride the lawn can relax this colt early and come with a strong run late.
Race 9: Spinster (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Idiomatic
Backups: None

Forecast: I was way against #1 Idiomatic last out in the Personal Ensign (G1) thinking that the star mare had seen better days. The daughter of Curlin got beat a head, but I could not have been more wrong. She did all the dirty work and got nailed on the wire by Raging Sea. That huge effort this summer at Saratoga may have taken a lot out of Idiomatic, but she is an absolute stand out in her attempt to win this Grade 1 event in back-to-back to years. Her lack of value is obvious making avoiding spreading deep elsewhere in the sequence a must, but she should handle this compact group under regular rider Florent Geroux.

Race 10: Bourbon (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Papiamento; #2 Warlander
Backups: 6 Cavallo Bay

Forecast: The card closes with a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on the line in the $350k Bourbon for 2YOs traveling 1 1/16-miles. #2 Warlander is the understandable 7-2-morning line favorite. The Winchell Thoroughbreds colt has done little wrong thus far finishing third to the good-looking Cherie DeVaux runner States’ Rights before breaking his maiden at Kentucky Downs last out. The inside draw is also a positive. He makes a lot of sense, but the pace could be hot, which could put him in chase mode early on and set things up for a runner from further off the pace.

Trainer Whit Beckman added the blinkers to #9 Papiamento in his second career start and it led to an impressive victory at Saratoga at this same distance. The Medaglia d’Oro colt did get a perfect trip that day, but I loved the way he finished. He should offer fair value in the finale. #6 Cavallo Bay is likely to take public support returning to the races for trainer Charles Appleby. He makes his second start in the States and also could benefit if the pace is lively early on.

Best of luck on this Sunday Funday at Keeneland!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 08:34 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/6/24

October 6, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita 7th Race – Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 1-Shea Brennan
Other Contenders: I’m a Bad Boy

Forecast: Shea Brennan was so visually impressive winning his debut that in his next start (the I’m Smokin Stakes) the son of Tough Sunday was knocked down to the odds-on favorite. But whatever chance he may have had was severely compromised by a poor start (he broke in a tangle and hit the side of the gate) and was never focused thereafter, eventually winding up third, beaten almost four lengths, while earning a Beyer speed figure 10 points lower than his winning performance. We’re going to draw a line through that race and anticipate that the P. D’Amato-trained juvenile will return to his best form in this allowance optional claimer. The rail post – same as he had last time out – is no bargain but if he leaves cleanly he’ll have every chances to fire his best shot. The morning line (5/2) makes him the second choice behind favored I’m a Bad Boy, and if we can get that number on the tote, we’ll take it.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita – 8th race - Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 3-Iron Man Cal
Other Contenders: 8-Cali Cat

Forecast: Iron Man Cal is a progressive son of Collected moving into stakes company after graduating with authority in a highly rated maiden special weight turf miler at Del Mar last month. The P. D’Amato-trained juvenile utilized an effective second flight stalking style and showed the ability to switch off and quicken late (final quarter in :23 2/5) over this same mile distance in victory. With enough speed signed off to set things up for a mid-pack closer, this race fits him like a glove, so at or near his morning line of 3-1 there’s an excellent gamble to be found in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Cali Cat also was pleasing in his maiden score at this trip and is worth tossing in as a saver.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 08:35 AM

The Red Mile Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 6, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

The Red Mile has a 12-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9 and includes some big-time players. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (3:20 PM EST)

1-Sylvia Hanover (9/5)-Twin B Joe Fresh isn't a factor tonight and Sylvia has won 2 previous starts at Lex. She should be on the lead or close to it off the gate. Has been camera shy this year, but this is a spot to shine.
6-Zanatta (4-1)-Will take a swing with the Jen B entry who gets a new set of hands tonight. Dexter Dunn gets the nod and will look for an aggressive steer at a solid price.

Race 10 (3:40 PM EST)

2-R Melina (6-1)-This is a consistent 3-year-old that battles hard on different size ovals and faces top company. Going to fade the program chalk #10 Date Night Hanover. Draws well and Todd McCarthy should have in position to snag the leader down the lane.
3-Buy A Round (9/2)-Andrew McCarthy steers for Noel Daly and has won 2 of 3 on the clay. Should be able to find a live cover flow and can be there at the wire with an honest pace.
7-Warrawee Michelle (5-1)-The Ake Svanstedt pupil has been off since 9-6, but this conditioner usually brings them ready for action. It wouldn't be a shock if this gal leaves hard, lands in a close-up seat and is heard from in the late going.
11-French Champagne (12-1)-Comes off a big win at Mohawk and Yannick Gingras could work an efficient trip as the rail horse and R Melina have some gate speed. Will look for this pilot to have in play by the top of the lane, at a nice price.

Race 11 (4:00 PM EST)

5-Little Rocket Man (3-1)-The Ken Rucker trainee draws a prime post and that gives him an edge over Bythemissal, but this will be its Lex debut. Has been in great form but can't use Lasix here. Will use the 2nd and 3rd morning chalks and look to beat #7 Abuckabett Hanover.
10-BytheMissal (5-1)-Finished 3rd by only a half-length in last, left from post 9 and was rimmed the mile. Now draws worse but still have to include, and the price should be worthwhile.

Race 12 (4:20 PM EST)

11-Karl (6/5)-Karl has lost 2 times this year, once leaving from post 8 and the other was from post 7 in its last start.
Willing to single here thinking Gingras will keep the Takter pupil relaxed starting from the 2nd tier. Those drawing inside do have some gate speed so getting a decent seat when the wings fold should be doable. If that's the case it could be time to start another winning streak.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,6/2,3,7,11/5,10/11
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 08:36 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #3

#4 Reagan Alice	Not much but brief chasing pace from her in the debut try, but you can draw a line through the back half of that race when she wasn't pushed along much. Hoping she got something out of that race on a tricky course, and she might find herself in an OK spot right up on the splits.
#7 Yellow	She has been a bit one-paced in the final yards of those first two starts, but she has run well enough behind a couple easy winners. Turf is a question for her, but she wouldn't be any real surprise on the drop.
#12 Bembridge Ledge	Speed draws well to pick a spot outside of the other forward players, and she probably doesn't need to come forward a whole lot in this second start to make some noise.
Race Summary	Reagan Alice might offer something better with the chase-and-fade debut run under her belt, and I'm guessing the price will be more appealing this time around, too.

Keeneland - Race #8

#12 Floodlites	He woke up when getting on the turf last out, and the effort there suggests he might find a dreamy spot spying the more committed forward players early on. Lots to like at something shorter than the 20/1 ML price?
#9 Raise the Bar	Considered him on top, but just not sure the front end is the place to be in this one with a lot of fast turf sprint winners lined up. Price might be OK.
#6 Pharoah's Destiny	Expected better from him at 9/5 in that stakes try last out, but he wasn't able to find the front that day and didn't offer much of a fight before backing up. Worried that he's going to meet enough speed to deny him the front again today, and he still has to prove he can get past horses.
Race Summary	#2 Chasing Liberty is another who makes plenty of sense but comes at a much shorter offering on the board today. Floodlites might get a decent trip with these in a spot where most of them haven't shown an ability to move past horses.

Keeneland - Race #10

#3 Siesta Key	Finisher has not done anything wrong through two starts, and I'm hoping the Horseshoe Indianapolis and Colonial form will help keep the price somewhat reasonable for a top team.
#10 Clock Tower	Wouldn't put it past him to take these the whole way, as his committed pace paid off with an easy score at Kentucky Downs last out. Not sure how much I trust that race at face value, but a lot of these might be happy to sit just off him.
#13 Fleming	Positional speed moved up nicely to score at second asking, and that kind of tactical ability gives his rider a few options in a race where quite a few of them have a similar style. Dangerous if given the chance.
Race Summary	Siesta Key and Clock Tower have opposing styles and might be the right two to cover here. The former might have some sneaky form on slightly softer circuits. #4 Giocoso isn't far from an 'A' for me, either.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 09:05 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park
PURCHASE

Arapahoe Park - Race 3	W/P/S/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $10,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 1:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. COLORADO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * UNBOWED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. POPS AWESOME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KAELY'S BROTHER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. PRINCE OF LUCK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	UNBOWED	5/2	7/2
6	POPS AWESOME	3/1	7/1
2	KAELY'S BROTHER	5/1	8/1
1	PRINCE OF LUCK	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	PRINCE OF LUCK	1	9/2	Front-runner	82	68	86.8	70.8	63.8
3	UNBOWED	3	5/2	Front-runner	89	83	82.3	84.6	82.1
5	HERMISTON	5	7/2	Front-runner	81	83	0.0	74.6	66.1
2	KAELY'S BROTHER	2	5/1	Stalker	84	81	80.5	81.0	74.5
6	POPS AWESOME	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	86	42.0	73.8	68.3
4	SOUTHERN MOJO	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	41.6	29.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 09:05 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 5	Leg E of the Cross Country Pick 5
Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 92 • Purse: $350,000 • Post: 5:48P
CASTLE & KEY BOURBON S. KEE - R10 - GRADE 2 FOR TWO YEAR OLDS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * GIOCOSO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CAVALLO BAY (GB): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CLOCK TOWE R: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts).
4	GIOCOSO	9/2	4/1
6	CAVALLO BAY (GB)	6/1	9/2
10	CLOCK TOWER	4/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	GOLDEN AFTERNOON	8	15/1	Front-runner	75	82	77.7	77.7	68.7
14	POSTER	14	15/1	Front-runner	74	72	73.9	68.3	47.8
10	CLOCK TOWER	10	4/1	Front-runner	82	87	60.7	84.4	75.9
2	WARLANDER	2	7/2	Front-runner	79	72	53.8	68.7	58.2
4	GIOCOSO	4	9/2	Stalker	89	90	92.7	83.6	75.1
12	REACH FOR THE ROSE	12	20/1	Stalker	87	78	90.1	67.3	57.3
13	FLEMING	13	8/1	Stalker	76	74	78.8	70.6	55.1
1	WARHEART	1	15/1	Stalker	72	72	68.7	68.7	49.2
6	CAVALLO BAY (GB)	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	89	70.2	80.6	72.1
9	PAPIAMENTO	9	10/1	Trailer	80	80	79.3	75.0	60.5
15	COALMOON	15	20/1	Trailer	76	75	79.2	70.8	52.8
3	SIESTA KEY	3	8/1	Trailer	68	63	56.9	62.6	39.1
5	MINARET STATION	5	15/1	Trailer	74	72	49.0	69.2	47.2
7	BARRICADE	7	12/1	Trailer	81	68	35.6	64.9	45.9
11	BAYTOWN BARACUS	11	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	68	99.5	55.9	28.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 09:05 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming Stakes Trial - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 85

BILLY POWELL CLAIMING S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER. $250 TO ENTER. FIELD SIZE LIMITED TO TWELVE STARTERS. THE TOP FOUR FINISHERS OF LEG ONE OF THE CLAIMING SERIES HAVE PREFERENCE, BUT MUST PAY THE ENTRY FEE THE REMAINING OF THE FIELD WITH BE DETERMINED BY HIGHEST 2023-2024 EARNINGS AT THE TIME OF CLOSING NOMINATIONS. WEIGHTS FILLIES 119, 3 YR

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 ANOTHERFORBROOKS 3/1
# 3 MAGIC MOSCO 3/1
# 6 NORTHERN QUEST 2/1

ANOTHERFORBROOKS is the most respectable bet in this race. Should keep the strong string of finishing positions intact this time around. Tough to pass on this gelding with Medellin in the irons. Could beat this group of horses given the 81 Equibase Speed Figure posted in his last outing. MAGIC MOSCO - Vaunts reliable speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group of horses in this race. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of respectable win percentage - 25 percent - at this distance & surface. NORTHERN QUEST - He should definitely be given a chance given the quite good speed numbers. Rosendo and Armstrong are a potent pair for gains.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 09:05 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Pierre

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $6250 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD $250 PASS THE BOX FEE DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. PURSE INCLUDES 100% OF PASS THE BOX FEES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 128 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 JESS FOLZOOKIEING 7/2
# 3 NITO SKEETO 5/1
# 1 DCR ALL FIRED UP 10/1

JESS FOLZOOKIEING looks to be a competitive contender. Should best this group of animals here, showing very good figs of late. Condon has her trained soundly to break swiftly out of the gate. The Equibase class rating of today's race is much lower than her last contest. NITO SKEETO - Could best this group here, showing very strong figures of late. Handler boasts solid win numbers at this distance and surface. DCR ALL FIRED UP - Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 64 - of his last contest. It's a good signal that Estrada is using Wood on this entrant.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 09:06 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#4 MARINAS TINA (IRE) (ML=6/1)
#2 SWEET VENGEANCE (ML=9/2)
#3 SEPTEMBER MAGIC (ML=7/2)

MARINAS TINA (IRE) - Stay with this racer. Coming off the pace, I think she'll be in a wonderful spot to bury them in the stretch. Finished fourth at Del Mar last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 right here, she looks like a possible contender. SWEET VENGEANCE - The jockey/trainer duo of Frey and McCarthy has a strong ROI together. Frey rode this entrant for the first time last time out and comes right back this time. SEPTEMBER MAGIC - Hernandez is up for another affair today after sitting atop this animal for the first try on August 23rd and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Earnings per start (EPS) is something that I believe can be a very key selection factor. This mount is ranked at the top of the list in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 NANCI GRIFFITH (ML=5/2), #5 MATURITY DATE (ML=3/1), #1 CHEEKIEST (ML=6/1),

NANCI GRIFFITH - This horse didn't go to the front end and didn't close any ground down the lane last time she ran. Will be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced contenders list. MATURITY DATE - Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced equines list. CHEEKIEST - You think this horse is going to be victorious just because she's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 MARINAS TINA (IRE) to win if we can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2024, 09:06 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Keeneland - Race #2 - Post: 1:32pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#10 WHEREVER WE ARE (ML=4/1)
#6 SUNNA (ML=15/1)
#11 WESTERN WOMAN (ML=8/1)
#7 LOVE'S THE ANSWER (ML=7/2)

WHEREVER WE ARE - A first-time-starter with this trainer. Ward wins a 33 pct of the time in these here situations. You always have to be on the lookout for profit making jock/conditioner combinations; we have it right here. SUNNA - This jock/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +39. WESTERN WOMAN - This pony comes out of a very good barn for first-timers. Davis has a very solid ROI (+57 percent). LOVE'S THE ANSWER - Machado rode this thoroughbred for the initial time last time out and comes right back this race. This pony coming off a sharp try in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my opinion. This horse brings in a lot of cash per start. Number one in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 EQUAL SUCCESS (ML=6/1), #12 MISS TIFEYE (ML=6/1), #4 BABY LADY (ML=8/1),

EQUAL SUCCESS - I foretell a setback for this animal in this event. MISS TIFEYE - Had to give me more than that last time around the track. Never made much of an impact. BABY LADY - This filly hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance events. Difficult to wager on her in this contest. Didn't close any ground whatsoever on August 25th. Hard to bet on this time at the expected odds.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - WHEREVER WE ARE - This first timer has had her last 3 workouts over today's track. Based on my calculations, this is a good sign. Being familiar with the track should benefit this filly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 WHEREVER WE ARE is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	10 with [6,7,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	10 with [6,7,11] with [6,7,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	10 with [6,7,11] with [6,7,11] with [6,7,11] Total Cost: $6