Monday 10/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:35 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 7, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

4-Rockin Jukebox (7/2)-Joe B is back at the controls and the 7-year-old drops. Comes back in sequence this time and looks like a main player.
5-Backstreet Shadow (5/2)-The 9-year-old hasn’t won in a while but is still taking on tough customers on every size oval. Could leave to get the top in this spot and Matt Kakaley should have in play from start to finish. Has won 12 of 34 races on the Hill Top.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Himself N (5/2)-The Hudson trainee is sharp as a tack and has a nose for the wire. Anthony Napolitano doesn’t need to lead every step of the way to take a picture. Should be in play early on and could notch its 3rd straight win versus Invites if the trip works out.
6-Act Fast (6-1)-Wasn’t up to the challenge of stepping up to this class after shipping in from Delaware. Missed a start before the last race, now comes back in sequence and should be a solid price. This is a very fast 4-yr-old who could get on the engine and be tough tackle.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Optical Illusion N (7/2)-Should be a player in the 3rd race after a judges scratch. Wouldn’t want to take a short price, needs to prove itself at this level. But this isn’t a very salty group and Matt Kakaley can work a good trip with this post draw.
5-Deetzy (8-1)-Will fade the 5/2 choice Leonidas who has the rail and returns after being off since 7-1.Will look for Brent Holland to be aggressive again. Tried to wire the last group and missed by a head. Moves up in a field with question marks and comes off a sharp last race
7-Gingras Beach (6-1)-Needs a trip but takes a good drop in class as ANap takes the lines, and he has been clicking. Could see an honest pace happening, so the Bucci entry could stalk and roll by down the lane.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

1-Be Dazzled Lou A (6/5)-The Joe B trainee wired the field from post 8 last time and made it look easy. Should try the same game plan drawing the rail and will string along although the price will be small.
3-Movin On Up (8-1)-The 9-year-old also moves up after getting on the point early on and didn't look back. ANap is back to steer and has hit the board in 16 of 32 at Yonkers with 5 wins. Looks like a double up possibility, although the morning line seems too high.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,5/1,6/4,5,7/1,3
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:36 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#7 J Roll	He was grinding away late for a share in the debut run, and their respective prices today won't reflect the fact that he wasn't too far behind today's rail runner in that one. Reasonable upside and an OK race shape might do the trick.
#5 Dancing On Air	I like him best of the forward players, but there are a few with a similar style that might help keep the tempo fair as they all keep tabs on one another. One of the ones.
#1 Palace Revolt	He ran on well behind an easy winner in the debut try, and he might get a good run of things while saving ground in behind a few quicker players. In the mix.
Race Summary	J Roll has some room to come forward today and might get a decent enough setup to see if he can avoid an early hustle and come alive to land it late.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#2 Ridge Warrior	I think his debut race was solid enough to be a player right back with winners, and the bookend post runners in today's third might give a hint to help validate the quality one way or another ahead of this. Might be quick enough to sit close in a race without too many serious speed types.
#7 Mr. Squeaky Wheels	He's supposed to be dangerous here while dropping after three consecutive stakes tries, but the barn has come up short with some similar players in these kinds of somewhat rare local spots in recent years. The one to beat -- just hesitant if the price gets short.
#3 Streets of War	Don't trust him a whole lot, but there is at least some chance he's able to find the front and wire this group if he doesn't take too much early heat. Price should be OK for anyone hoping he can speed pop these.
Race Summary	A couple of the runners Ridge Warrior beat to graduate at first asking come back earlier on today's card, so we might be able to get a really quick gut check on the quality of that race based on how they stack up to a couple of horses with decent and established baselines.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#9 Sign of Peace	Would love to see her find a similar trip to that last one when settled off the pace but ahead of the finishers. That kind of run might leave her in a great spot while acting as the bridge between the early speed and deeper threats. Price is probably OK. Like her stablemate #12 Spartan Queen, too.
#4 Sand and Sea	The fact that she won from a touch off the pace at Horseshoe Indianapolis in August gives me some reassurance about the concern I have otherwise -- her best stuff comes on the front end, and there are two other committed types lined up. That said, her only local start was a super-sharp romp against softer, so she might bounce back today.
#10 Take the Stand	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here, as she's got some pretty reliable form on her page and has run well on synthetic footing in the past. Feel like I'd want close to that 5/1 ML price to be serious about it.
Race Summary	Sign of Peace will probably get just the tiniest bit overlooked against this crew, and I think something like her last run would keep her in the mix for at least a piece of this. A move forward in the second local start makes her a threat.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:36 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Fort Erie - Race #2

#4 SILENT SUMMIT (4-1)	Second on muddy track two back after pace fell apart, third start of cycle.
#1 BUD IM NOT YAWNING (8-1)	Bypassed Delaware to start career here for high-percentage barn.
#6 SING DIXIE (9-5)	Third in 3 of last 6 starts, gets needed class relief.
Race Summary	SILENT SUMMIT followed the move of the winning favorite when second at this level two starts back. He gave way chasing a solid pace in a higher-tagged long sprint last out, but could factor in his third start of a cycle. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #3

#6 BEST IN CLASS (8-1)	No match for faves, has speed to factor in shorter sprint on the class drop.
#2 SAILINGTHEISLANDS (2-1)	Second in last four starts, the latest as odds-on choice at this level.
#5 DRILLHALL (5-2)	Good speed, piling up checks, changes riders, wears blinkers again.
Race Summary	BEST IN CLASS pressed the pace in Maiden Special Weight company, but gave way to the 3-to-5 winner and 5-2 runner-up in the stretch. He’s dangerous on the class drop and cutback from a long sprint to 6F. Bet to win and place and play a 6/2,5/ALL trifecta.

Fort Erie - Race #6

#2 BOSTON BAY (2-1)	Steady sort drops below claim level, rivals are a combined 2-32 on turf.
#9 MISS D’S PRIDE (8-1)	Broke maiden on the grass, ran second twice at 7-1/2F.
#4 BEER MOSA (6-1)	Can’t seem to avoid wide trip, makes sixth start since August 13.
Race Summary	BOSTON BAY is 6/1-3-1 since late July, gets class relief and has a decent turf race to summon in June, when he battled for the lead through the turn but yielded to the deep closers at 7-1/2F. His rivals are a combined 2-for-32 on the lawn, so give him the nod on a win and place bet and play 2-4 and 2-9 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 6	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Allowance • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 87 • Purse: $17,800 • Post: 3:05P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. (MULTIPLE WINNERS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CEDAR HILL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RR GOD AND COWBOYS: Quarter H orse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. MY FANCY CORONA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. OKIE POWER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface .
4	CEDAR HILL	7/2	5/1
3	RR GOD AND COWBOYS	3/1	6/1
2	MY FANCY CORONA	5/1	6/1
9	OKIE POWER	5/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	EXECUTIVE TRAIN	1	20/1	Average	58	54	5.8	0.0	0.0
2	MY FANCY CORONA	2	5/1	Average	82	83	4.5	0.0	0.0
3	RR GOD AND COWBOYS	3	3/1	Fast	81	75	2.7	0.0	0.0
4	CEDAR HILL	4	7/2	Average	86	86	4.0	0.0	0.0
5	LOVEPOTIONUMBER 9	5	5/1	Average	75	68	4.5	0.0	0.0
6	MS DAKOTA LIGHTS	6	12/1	Average	69	66	4.0	0.0	0.0
7	ONE BM CARTEL	7	8/1	Average	79	74	4.5	0.0	0.0
8	FAST N SIXY	8	12/1	Fast	80	69	3.0	0.0	0.0
9	OKIE POWER	9	5/1	Average	81	77	4.4	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:37 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 6	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $15,750 • Post: 2:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,750, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. BEER MOSA is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BOSTON BAY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within t he last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SPANISH SERENADE: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is carr ying at least 120 lbs. PRINCE FOR A DAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
2	BOSTON BAY	2/1	3/1
6	SPANISH SERENADE	15/1	5/1
5	PRINCE FOR A DAY	4/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	PRINCE FOR A DAY	5	4/1	Front-runner	60	61	92.4	51.6	43.1
9	MISS D'S PRIDE	9	8/1	Front-runner	67	49	80.8	60.6	47.6
6	SPANISH SERENADE	6	15/1	Front-runner	80	70	45.8	59.6	54.1
2	BOSTON BAY	2	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	66	69.7	64.4	59.9
7	THE SWAYZE EXPRESS	7	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	51	36.0	55.9	42.4
4	BEER MOSA	4	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	62	58	8.5	48.3	35.8
1	MANETKA	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	55	44.8	53.6	46.6
3	BUTWAITTHERE'SMORE	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	74	44.5	53.9	41.9
8	JOEYBONES	8	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	57	34.8	51.2	39.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 86

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 DC LADYS DASHN EAGLE 3/1
# 10 BNB LIGHTING MCQUEEN 8/1
# 5 FIRST MOON CAT 6/1

My choice in this competition is DC LADYS DASHN EAGLE. Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. Looks very strong versus this group and will probably be one of the leaders. Recorded a competitive Equibase Speed Fig last time out. BNB LIGHTING MCQUEEN - Castillo has one of the most competitive winning percentages in this group of horses in this race with entries running at this distance and surface. The Equibase Speed Figure of 86 from his last contest looks solid in here. FIRST MOON CAT - She has a good opportunity here as handler, Magallanes, has solid win rate with horses going this distance. Have to sense that this horse will make a good showing again today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 35

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 FOCACCIA 9/2
# 2 JUMPIN JOLENE 8/1
# 3 ANNIE EXPRESS 10/1

FOCACCIA is my choice. Tough to pass on this filly with Roman in the saddle. Her chances to win are much better this time out facing this less demanding field of horses. JUMPIN JOLENE - Has quite good early speed and will most likely fare well versus this field. Last time out, this filly ran against a much tougher crew. ANNIE EXPRESS - Handler boasts solid win figs at this distance and surface. This group is much softer than the last one she ran against.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 2:01pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#8 CAPPETTA (ML=4/1)
#3 SCUDETTO (ML=5/1)

CAPPETTA - Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. Entered last at Parx Racing in a race with an Equibase class figure of 73. Dropping drastically in class rating this time puts him in a solid position today. SCUDETTO - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the capability to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CURIOUS SOUL (ML=9/5), #4 POSSUM (ML=7/2),

CURIOUS SOUL - The morning-line favorite is vulnerable here with the lack of works. POSSUM - Can't invest in this mount in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race of late. Finished ninth in his most recent race with a pedestrian speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 CAPPETTA to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2024, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#3 DOCTOR WU (ML=6/1)
#1 ROGER MCQUEEN (ML=4/1)

DOCTOR WU - Just missed hitting the board on August 22nd at Thistledown. With pretty good M/L odds in this field, he has my interest. ROGER MCQUEEN - Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. I like to bet on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a good contest within the last month or so. Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this thoroughbred, I think his answer would be Thistledown.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 STATESBORO (ML=2/1), #6 SIR (ML=3/1), #7 BOBBY G (ML=5/1),

STATESBORO - September 11th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. 2/1 is not worth the risk for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint race recently. SIR - I'm always a little shy about any horse that earns his biggest speed figure on an 'off' track. BOBBY G - Based on the pace scenario in this race, this horse doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this horse having to race from behind, he sure has a tough assignment.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 DOCTOR WU is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2024, 09:31 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Harrington Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
2	2	DONTLIKEITLEAVE	6/1	Callahan, Corey - 19	531.69
1	1	IMOUTTHEDOOR	2/1	Morgan, Anthony - 18	526.09
3	3	ALL ABOUT THE HUNT	3/1	Stafford, Art Jr - 18	505.30
6	6	IMAGINARY LINE	5/1	Green, Jason - 9	492.84
5	5	LYONS SPIRIT	9/1	Teague, Montrell - 20	490.98
4	4	SOUTHWIND PHAROAH	15/1	Wolfenden, Ross - 13	490.39
8	8	METALLICA	8/1	Berry, Pat - 18	475.43
7	7	SOMETHING BETTOR A	20/1	Davis, Allan - 14	459.49

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2024, 09:32 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Pocono Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
8	8	GREEN ZONE	9/2	Ingrassia, Jacqueline - 15	437.65
1	1	JET ZETTE	5/2	Beyer, Troy - 8	416.74
5	5	HIGHLY MOTIVATED	12/1	Norris, Charlie - 8	413.73
4	4	GONE GOODBYE	3/1	Buter, Tyler - 15	409.02
2	2	MISCHIEVOUS G	6/1	Chellis, Drew - 0	402.73
3	3	POLO BAR	10/1	Chisholm, Bradley - 17	399.79
6	6	LOXAHATCHEE	4/1	Warren, Ridge - 8	394.93
7	7	CANTABS BIG BANG	15/1	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 21	387.41

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2024, 09:32 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 1:10 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$4800 - NW $465 PS L5 OR PS IN 2024 AE: NW 6 PM LT $7200 PC LS AE:$7000 CLM W/A J TAGGART JR 5 OVER 6

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 3 BROOKROAD MASTER 5/2
# 7 SWAN HILLUVA TIME 7/2
# 5 HENRY IAM IAM 10/1

Hard not to get behind BROOKROAD MASTER as the top selection for this one. Can't forget based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been outstanding (73 avg) most recently. That 73 speed rating clocked in the most recent race puts this harness racer in the mix in this contest. SWAN HILLUVA TIME - This nice horse achieved a really good TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out. Looks in fine form to come right back. HENRY IAM IAM - His 74 avg has this gelding among the most favorable speed figs in this contest. This interesting entrant looks dangerous considering the high class statistics. Don't throw out of any exotics.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2024, 09:32 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$10000 - F& M - N/W $5,500 LAST 5 STARTS - N/W LAST 3 ALW. $500 AE: N/W $10,000, 2 EXT. P-M RACES IN 2024

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 HS SHAUNA 10/1
# 1 AMERICAN TOUR N 8/5
# 4 AP BLAZE OF GLORY 7/2

HS SHAUNA is the clear stand out bet in the eyes of the wagering panel and the potential dividend justifies the long odds. Her 80 avg has this mare among the finest speed figures for this one. It's dangerous to consider solely based on class, but this mare has among the most competitive class numbers of the group of horses. Reason to like this mare as she has in the sulky one of the best drivers in win percentage over the last 30 days. AMERICAN TOUR N - The 78 average class ranking may give this mare a distinct advantage in the field. Could best this field of horses, just look at the TrackMaster SR - 76 - from her last effort. AP BLAZE OF GLORY - Many handicappers get behind this mare on the driver-trainer ratings alone. The consortium happens to know that when you put Devaux and Gardner together formidable results are not far behind.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2024, 09:32 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Kansas City/NY Yankees Over 7.5 Runs