Wednesday 10/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:51 AM

Scott Shapiro: $265K Keeneland Pick 5 Carryover Analysis | Wed.

October 8, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Opening Week at the Keeneland Fall Meet is in the rearview mirror, but it left with a juicy $265k carryover after no one was able to connect the dots in the early Pick 5 on Sunday afternoon. The pool should be massive and the sequence gets rolling with the opener on the Wednesday afternoon card, so let’s dive in.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 1:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Never Sway; 2 Simple Souvenir
Backups: 3 Forever Home

Forecast: Speed was really good on opening day and the rail was good all of opening week, so keeping that in mind, I landed on #1 Never Sway in a challenging opener. The Clubhouse Ride mare has been freshened up after besting just a field of 4 at Colonial Downs this summer for Robertino Diodoro. Obviously, the 5YO mare has soundness issues of some sort since she has struggled to put races together of late, but she has won 3 of 4 since entering the Diodoro barn and draws the inside. At 6-1 she is very playable. #2 Simple Souvenir is a bigger price and is not impossible. The Ontario-bred ships in from the Jersey Shore after a win and two seconds this summer at Monmouth Park. If the rail is good again, she should benefit.

9-5-morning line favorite #3 Forever Home makes sense after her second consecutive win at Churchill Downs against a couple of today’s rivals, but she is 0 for 3 at Keeneland and 0 for 5 at 6.5-furlongs making her tough to get too excited about at her expected price. I will include her as a backup since she is one of the likelier winners, but hope to beat her with one of the two inside runners.

Race 2:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Maliblue; 6 D Day; 12 Masked Man; 8 Afleet Vintage
Backups: None

Forecast: The sequence rolls on with a $20K maiden claimer where I assume most horseplayers will spread, including myself. That said, if you have a strong opinion, especially with a non-favorite in this one, it would be a savvy move to go thin here and get more coverage elsewhere.

Normally, I am willing to let horses like #2 Maliblue beat me. He has had eight starts already for a barn that is just 4% at Keeneland over a 115-start sample size, but has speed and draws the inside on the move from turf-to-dirt. If the track plays like it did last week, he should be around
late. #6 D Day is an intriguing wild card contender. The son of Omaha Beach has disappointed thus far, but against far better competition. Trainer Rob Atras has won with 2 of his last 6 starts at Keeneland. #12 Masked Man has upside still unlike several of his main rivals and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. He might get over bet, but is still difficult to leave off your tickets. #8 Afleet Vintage debuts for Tom Drury Jr. He is not spotted too ambitiously here after taking a while to get to the races, but will not have to be much to be competitive in this spot.

Race 3:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Sound Doctrine; 2 Dutch Mills
Backups: None

Forecast: #1 Invulnerable is listed as the 6-5-morning line favorite on the big class drop for trainer Joe Sharp and likely to be a very popular single in a challenging sequence. The Practical Joke gelding was really good to start his career for trainer Joe Sharp, but has been disappointing since returning from a nine-month break back in November of ’23. The class relief, rail, and presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. all help his chances, but I am still willing to take a stand against him.

I will use two runners against the chalk, including top pick #3 Sound Doctrine. The son of Mucho Macho Man moves up in class after a dominant wire-to-wire score at odds-on at Churchill Downs in mid-September. If he is able to control the early tempo once again, he should be tough to catch late. #2 Dutch Mills also makes sense. The Runhappy colt ships in from the Mid-Atlantic having won 3 of 4. If they go too fast early, hopefully he is the one that benefits.

Race 4:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Tallahatchiebridge; 1 Stage Left
Backups: None

Forecast: The pace should be honest in this open $16k claimer over the main track, which bodes well for the top two choices on the morning line. #1 Stage Left is a bit of a tough read shipping in for David Jacobson. The 2-1-morning line favorite takes a big drop in class after stumbling and losing his rider at Aqueduct in September. He has kept far better company than his competition of here in late, but the drop does seem a bit drastic. If he runs anything close to his best, he wins. If not, #2 Tallahatchiebridge looms large. The son of Will Take Charge makes his third start off the claim for Eddie Kenneally. He chased better while wide at Churchill Downs last month. He is a must use regardless of your opinion on Stage Left.

Race 5:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 El Megeeth; 6 Fifth of May; 14 Enchant
Backups: 10 Estuary

Forecast: The sequence concludes with a full-field MSW event at nine-furlongs over the lawn where the top choice on oddsmaker Nick Tammaro’s morning line is found on the also-eligible list in #14 Enchant. The Brendan Walsh trainee debuted at Ellis Park in August and missed by just a half-length to a filly that had far more experience. She makes sense after gaining invaluable racing experience last out, but might struggle to avoid a wide voyage after saving ground throughout in her debut. I much prefer her though to the co-second choices, #12 Raconteuse and #15 Weighted Average. Raconteuse has had ten chances already against similar or lesser while Weighted Average’s lack of early zip is likely to leave her too much to do late.

#2 El Megeeth failed to break her maiden this winter in Florida for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, but has been given time and draws favorably to the inside. I expect her to run well. #6 Fifth of May has only raced once and it came going six-furlongs at Kentucky Downs. She should move forward here on the stretch out for trainer Ben Colebrook. #10 Estuary draws towards the outside, but should improve after chasing and tiring badly on debut. I will include her as a backup.

Good luck taking down your share of this carryover!!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:52 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #5

#10 Estuary	Most of the ones who intrigue me in this spot are drawn on the AEs, and I'm hoping the price will be playable enough here while hoping for some major upside at second asking. Seems like she can only move up from the hard debut fade.
#7 Lady Meis	Think she'll bring something better today while likely sitting closer to the pace. She tried finishing from off the splits last time out and might find a pretty sweet spot tracking the speed here in a spot without much serious early burn.
#3 Adrasteia	She seems to have found her home on the turf, but she's still running most of her races without being a serious threat to the winner. Obviously her better form fits at this level, but I'm just not that enthusiastic about her.
Race Summary	Check scratches ahead of this, as any of the first three AEs to drawn into the field would seem capable of including on A/B plays. Estuary and Lady Meis might both offer midrange prices, and the former has some appeal while making her first start away from Kentucky Downs.

Keeneland - Race #6

#8 Kinetic Control	These types of two-turn special weights for 2-year-olds here don't typically produce huge prices here, and this barn has done perfect work from a pair of similar runners here in recent years. Add another to both categories today?
#10 Monet's Magic	He has some room to improve while making his second route start, as he at least stayed on better than some tiring ones in that spot. Might still be heading in the right direction.
#4 Otter Mischief	He'll be a big price with plenty of room to come forward today. He'll add blinkers while getting around two turns, and I feel like the race he comes out of might end up being decent enough. Could show a bit of pace. On stretch plays.
Race Summary	Kinectic Control won't be much of a price here, but I don't think this is a super-deep spot for him to show up with a couple compelling races already on his page. Will try to get Monet's Magic or Otter Mischief in the mix with him.

Keeneland - Race #8

#7 Born Flashy	I think he can settle enough to find a spot behind a few quicker players without pitching a fit about it, and he's one of four or five horses who look awfully similar. He might be one of the better prices of those players.
#11 Ocean Victory	Considered him on top as he returns off the bench, as he only worked a couple more times after that flat run last out before heading to the bench, so I wonder if he's a bit better-intended today. Threat late at a price.
#3 Big To Do	He might offer an OK price today, but I like him while getting back on the lawn today. The guy a couple stalls out beat him by only a quarter length when they met in June, and that one has already validated that race with two sharp runs since. Let's see if this is his home.
Race Summary	Fun race with a bit of quality for the level -- #1 Green Light owns multiple stakes placings and didn't even make my cut with a potentially tricky trip from the fence. #6 Clever Mischief and #8 Thornbury seem like adds on really deep plays.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:52 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#5 BAD HOMBRE (7-2)	Projects ideal trip as one of several class-droppers in a field of unproven milers.
#6 SIDNEY’S BID (3-1)	Finished second in 3 of 4 longer route races since August, changes riders.
#1 GRAND BEY (10-1)	Drops below claim level, goes long for the first time, rail draw a plus.
Race Summary	In a field that stands a combined 0-for-30 at one mile, BAD HOMBRE is a decent value play. He finished a distant third to the favorite in 2 of his last 3 route attempts and gets plenty of pace to rally into. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-6 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#2 ELLIE’S BOYFRIEND (12	Too good to pass up at 12-1 morning-line odds, gets new pilot.
#10 COOLER KING (8-1)	Good first gear, tired late at 5F at this level, draws outside.
#7 NORTHWOODS (12-1)	Trailed to quarter pole, ran down pace-controlling fave in four-horse field.
Race Summary	ELLIE’S BOYFRIEND posted a runaway victory in his second start as a gelding, then set a pressured pace before tiring in starter allowance company against the likes of Tiebreaker (16/3-3-4, $101k), whose three-peat bid was foiled by repeat winner Super Constitution ($260k). Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#2 READY TO ROCKNROLL (6-1)	Led in stretch in both starts, settled for second best.
#6 BRINDI (3-1)	Bumped between rivals early, mild response, beaten fave twice at Saratoga.
#5 SUMMER ELECTION (8-1)	Motion-trained firster is by 15th-ranked North America turf sire in 2024.
Race Summary	READY TO ROCKNROLL ‘took command’ at the eighth pole, but got caught for his second runner-up finish in as many starts, one on turf and the latest switched to the main track. The 6-1 morning-line price is tempting enough for a win and place wager and a 2-5-6 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:53 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 9	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 4:30P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $8,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DOUBLE NICKEL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. EGOR OTAY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. DOWNPATRICK: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. ROLLY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. I WANNA ROCK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	DOUBLE NICKEL	7/5	9/2
6	EGOR OTAY	20/1	7/1
2	DOWNPATRICK	5/1	7/1
1	ROLLY	8/5	9/1
7	I WANNA ROCK	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ROLLY	1	8/5	Front-runner	60	47	75.6	41.0	33.0
6	EGOR OTAY	6	20/1	Front-runner	77	53	71.1	38.0	30.5
7	I WANNA ROCK	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	57	45	68.4	49.2	44.7
2	DOWNPATRICK	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	61	57.2	42.9	36.9
4	DOUBLE NICKEL	4	7/5	Alternator/Stalker	68	62	42.8	55.0	48.0
5	CAPITAN GEORGE	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	69.0	41.2	31.2
3	DAVE DID IT	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	29.1	37.3	24.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:53 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 3	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $10,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $21,600 • Post: 6:55P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SHEZA HAILSTORM is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHEZA HAILSTORM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	SHEZA HAILSTORM	5/2	9/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	SHEZA HAILSTORM	4	5/2	Front-runner	76	76	74.0	69.4	64.4
5	SHUG'S ROCKET	5	10/1	Front-runner	58	60	46.0	44.6	32.6
6	WALL STREET LOGIC	6	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	65	60	60.4	52.9	46.9
8	BEAU VERO	8	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	66	62	59.4	44.2	36.7
7	I'M A DREAMER TOO	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	55	40.3	53.0	44.0
2	KID CUSTER	2	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	54	58	38.3	52.8	44.8
1	IMPEACHABULL	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	53	55	67.3	36.0	23.0
3	CHARLIE DYNASTY	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	65	30.0	39.6	29.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:53 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race #2 - Post: 6:59pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#10 MARQUEE LADY (ML=12/1)
#1 LITTLEEUROGIRL (ML=5/1)
#14 K O AMERICAN PIE (ML=8/1)

MARQUEE LADY - This horse's last race was at Remington Park in a race with a class figure of 80. Dropping drastically in class figure today puts her in a solid position in this race. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should race well today. I like this filly. Has the top earnings per race entered in this contest. LITTLEEUROGIRL - This animal could be tough today, especially since Triana rode last race out and now should be acquainted with this one. Don't often see a beneficial return on investment like +54. This jockey/handler duo has done well together over the last twelve months. The most recent speed fig of 62 is the highest last race speed fig in the field. Looked very good in last race at Remington Park. A quick turnaround means Padilla thinks she can do it again. K O AMERICAN PIE - Took a class drop last time out at Remington Park. Offolter keeps her at the same level in this event. I think that's a good move.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 OKIE LOVE (ML=7/2), #8 FREELOADINGSISTAH (ML=6/1),

OKIE LOVE - Last ran on September 12th at Remington Park, finishing fifth. Not likely to advance off of that effort in today's event. FREELOADINGSISTAH - Improbable that the speed figure she recorded on September 6th will be enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #10 MARQUEE LADY on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	10 with [1,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,10,14] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,10,14] with [1,10,14] with [1,6,7,10,14] with [1,6,7,10,14] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:54 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 92

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 C THE POWER 9/2
# 6 TOBY DALE 20/1
# 7 C C GIRL 6/1

I back C THE POWER here. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. Fierro ought to be able to get this gelding to break out sharply in this event. Earned a formidable speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. TOBY DALE - Should be considered for this event if only for the strong speed fig recorded in the last contest. Investors get an edge when playing this trainer in a short race. C C GIRL - I can't pass on this filly given one of the top jockey and handler combos on the grounds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:54 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $49680 Class Rating: 91

IND - R6 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 GHOSTLY GAL 6/1
# 11 SARA MIA 8/1
# 2 MAKE THE BOYS WINK 9/2

GHOSTLY GAL looks very strong to best this field. Has performed admirably lately in route races, posting a nifty 100 avg Equibase Speed Figure. Is a key contender - given the 100 Equibase Speed Fig from her most recent race. Has very good speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in this race. MAKE THE BOYS WINK - Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this filly. Earning some nice profits in turf route races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2024, 07:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8 - Post: 6:09pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#11 BROMISTA (ML=7/2)
#8 THIRD CITY (ML=9/2)
#10 WARRIOR ON TAP (ML=5/1)

BROMISTA - The September 24th race at Presque Isle Downs was at a class level of (76). Dropping down in the class scale considerably, so he should be in a good spot to win. This gelding is in fine condition. Ended up third on September 24th. THIRD CITY - I am keen on that most recent race on September 24th at Presque Isle Downs where he ran second. Horse's last race was at Presque Isle Downs in a race with a class rating of 76. Dropping drastically in class figure this time around puts him in a solid position in this event. This gelding's last rating is lofty enough to win here, I'll bet on him right back today. WARRIOR ON TAP - Ran a winning race September 25th, but just couldn't beat the victor. Have to give this gelding a fair chance. Ran a nice effort last out within the last 30 days. PP lines show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed figs. Gallardo should be on a live one in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 HURRICANE DUDE (ML=3/1), #1 ROCK BULLET (ML=6/1),

HURRICANE DUDE - I don't normally play a probable favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. ROCK BULLET - The eighth place result in the last affair was not the best. This horse doesn't have a winning attitude. Habitually finishes in the place or show hole.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #11 BROMISTA on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	11 with [8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [8,10,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[8,10,11] with [8,10,11] with [1,3,8,10,11] with [1,3,8,10,11] Total Cost: $36

Wednesday 10/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 10/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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