Friday 10/11/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:26 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 11, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Hoosier Park has a 15-race card, and Indiana Sires Stakes action are the headliners. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 12, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 12 (10:32 PM EST)

2-Chandler Bing (2-1)- The Alvin Miller 2-year-old is on quite a roll. Winner of the 3 straight is in a good spot to keep taking pictures. Should be racing with the leaders and likes to gobble up ground down the long HoP stretch.
8-Big Bad Moses (10-1)-Will look for a couple of prices, and this one gets the services of Dexter Dunn. The last time he steered it led to a picture. The post makes the price and has the gate speed to get a close-up seat when the wings fold.
9-Odds On Brahmastra (8-1)-Andrew MacCarthy grabs the lines for team Wrenn. The fractions should be lively, and the freshman can roll hard down the lane. Might be overlooked, and the driver change could make a difference.

Race 13 (10:55 PM EST)

2-Helpem Dance (12-1)-This is the 5th start on Lasix and has connected for a win but was pace compromised last time. Dexter Dunn steers for Jamie Macomber and the 3-year-old did close in 56.1 to lose by a neck. Best to respect the driver change and they won't go to the half this time in a tepid 58.1.
8-Dashing Danny (7/2)-Hasn't been as sharp after winning 5 straight. But raced better in last and should offer a solid price. There is not a lot of early speed in this affair and Kyle Wilfong should be out and rolling from the word "go".

Race 14 (11:18 PM EST)

3-Sabonis (4/5)-This 16-time winner in 2024 has only lost once. Should keep rolling unless if comes with an usual dull try. Joey Putnam shouldn't have an issue working an efficient trip.
6-Tellmeitmatters (9/2)-If there is to be an upset the Roger Welch pupil is my pick. This will be the 2nd start off the bench and likes to win (8-6-0-1) this year. Maybe the fresh horse angle clicks here and if so there will be some added juice to the Pick 4 payout.

Race 15 (11:41 PM EST)

5-Lovers Trouble (7/2)-Comes off a sharp win at HoP, was aided by a good trip but did pace the back-half in 54.3. The Joe B trainee was toughened up against older at Yonkers and could be ready to take another picture.
6-Play Action Pass (5/2)-Tried to wire the last field in the 1st start since shipping in from Delaware and just missed. Comes back in sequence this time, and gets a positive driver change with Gingras getting the nod. Could get the top off the gate and make every call a winning time.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,8,9/2,8/3,6/5,6
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:26 AM

Keeneland Pick 4 for Friday, Oct. 11

October 11, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

KEENELAND PICK 4
Friday, October 11, 2024

There’s more of where the one million in rewards points came from. For the second week in a row, 1st Bet is offering a Hit & Split promo covering the Late Pick 4 at Keeneland. Cash a winning ticket on the 50-cent wager this Friday, Oct. 11, and you will share in the rewards with other winning ticket holders. Here’s a look at the action:

KEE 7th race (4:12 p.m. EST) -- REINING FLOWERS overcame a slow pace to break her maiden going a route of ground, the made a last-to-third move and ‘finished with good courage’ in the P.G. Johnson Stakes, a performance that was upgraded when the top two finishers returned with Grade 2 placings next out. She draws post 10 but gets a much livelier pace to rally into. SWEET TREASURE, the only wire-to-wire winner from four turf races at Horseshoe Indianapolis in her debut, stretches out in distance for the 29-percent ‘repeat’ barn of trainer Brad Cox. Her sire, Twirling Candy, won the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby at 1-1/8 miles.
KEE 8th race (4:44 p.m. EST) -- Nine first-time starters – almost all showing flashy workouts – are entered in the main body of this MSW sprint. PATCH ADAMS turned heads with a :59.1 gate work and strong gallop out at Churchill Downs. His sire, Into Mischief, is the 7th-leading sire in 2yo progeny earnings this year and his dam, Well Humored, was an 11-length first-out winner and capped a 3-for-4 start to her career with a minor stakes win. T KRAFT opened a 3-length lead at 6-1/2F at Saratoga in his second start, only to get caught by Chancer McPatrick, who followed his debut victory with a pair of Grade 1 wins in the Hopeful and Champagne, respectively.
KEE 9th race (5:16 p.m. EST) -- Going 7-deep in the featured #300,000 Sycamore Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on the grass. VERSTAPPEN won a Grade 2 turf marathon and finished in the money in two others during a $464k season last year as a 4-year-old. He bid but flattened out in his seasonal debut, finishing behind two next-out graded stakes winners who posted 101 and 99 Beyers, respectively. OMAHA HONOR earned a triple-digit Beyer and finished a willing third behind two Charles Appleby-trained millionaires in the Grade 1 Manhattan at Saratoga. Speaking of Appleby, he sends out BOLD ACT, a $540k earner at the distance with a 14/5-2-4 record. TAWNY PORT lost in three blanket finishes, but placed in the money if his last five graded stakes on firm footing, all at 1-1/2 miles or longer. DATAMAN’s late kick produced two stakes wins to start his year and four consecutive 93-plus Beyers going a route of ground, but he can ill-afford another troubled start in a crowded field. BIG BLUE LINE makes the ticket at 30-1. He had two wire-to-wire wins as a 3-year-old, a stakes-placed showing from four runner-up rallies as a 4-year-old and a win after an $80,000 claim two starts back as a 5-year-old. He can be excused as a non-factor in a slow-paced Grade 2 stakes last out after a cross-country trip to Santa Anita. SUGOI has speed, a Grade 3 win at the distance, double-digit morning-line odds -- and he doesn’t shy from the photo-finish camera.
KEE 10th race (5:48 p.m. EST) -- Speed types dominated on the main track during the opening week of the fall meet. If the trend continues in this maiden claiming race, it bodes well for MSW droppers CRUISE MISSILE and QUIET CONFIDENCE in their first start at 7F. ENDLESS GLOW drew more betting attention than she warranted with first-time blinkers. She raced far back early at 6F, angled 6-wide in mid-stretch and ran fourth behind two MSW droppers.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
KEE 7th Race: 3, 10
KEE 8th Race: 2, 4
KEE 9th Race: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
KEE 10th Race: 1, 9, 10
Cost: $42

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:29 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #7

#2 Into the Fray	She might be able to relax just enough to avoid getting caught up with a couple of the quicker early players, and that might leave her in a spot to get first jump on some of the obvious finishing threats. Expecting better.
#10 Reining Flowers	She can be tough here after the good stakes try behind a filly who was back to run second in stakes company here last weekend. Threat to land it late at what might be an unappealing price.
#11 Little Mo	She validated the top choice's graduation run with a punchy score of her own in August, and this feels like a reasonable spot to try her around two turns. Might find an OK spying trip from out here.
Race Summary	Into the Fray tracked the pace and stopped in that stakes try, but it already came back well with the winner repeating in her next run. She might turn in something better today if she can stay settled.

Keeneland - Race #9

#9 Sugoi	He should appreciate the more leisurely tempo today while dropping out of that Grade I at Colonial, and he should be right up on the pace the entire way. Might be gone if he can control this into the far turn the final time.
#11 Bold Act	His best stuff would do the trick, but he is still winless from three starts so far this season in North America and probably won't offer a super appealing price. Still, he's not the worst stand to take if you're a believer.
#4 Dataman	Wouldn't put it past him to land this, as he was just a length off Grade II company this summer and should appreciate getting some more ground to work with today.
Race Summary	I think Bold Act is the one to beat, even with some bounce-back potential from the guy drawn just inside him, too. That said, Sugoi and Dataman should both offer midrange prices that more appealing, and I think Sugoi's tactical edge makes him the right one.

Keeneland - Race #10

#6 Bah Humbug	The price might be fair enough to give her a look on the main track today as she gets in for a tag for the first time after staying on a touch better last time out. Cutback player might spy and finish.
#11 Lady Aberdeen	She's tough to trust on top with all of those underneath shares staring back at you, but she's pretty honest and isn't overmatched with these. Could get over the top today.
#1 Cruise Missile	There are a couple races on her page that would probably do the trick, but I worry about the fact that she went to the bench in dull form and came back the same way -- and now there's a price tag on her. Tough call, but I lean against.
Race Summary	#13 Arrasou looks tough if she gets in, but I'm not totally thrilled about the drop off a dull run by her standards. Bah Humbug has some appeal while trying the main track with the kind of form that suggests she might get a perfect spying trip.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:30 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $37,000 • Post: 5:05P
GP - R9 - (RAIL AT 59 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 11, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Class. TIZ THE BOMB is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIZ THE BOMB: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distan ce/surface. OCALA DREAM: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CASHIER CHECK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	TIZ THE BOMB	3/1	3/1
1	OCALA DREAM	5/1	7/1
9	CASHIER CHECK	10/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	INDY LYON	7	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	96	93	88.2	78.4	68.4
2	YOU TALKIN TO ME	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	82	100.2	86.9	76.4
9	CASHIER CHECK	9	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	87	98.7	85.4	79.9
1	OCALA DREAM	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	98	92	75.4	91.2	83.7
6	A. P.'S SECRET	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	92	95	74.9	74.9	60.9
3	TIZ THE BOMB	3	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	111	99	75.0	97.4	88.9
8	GRAND DAVID	8	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	99	89	102.0	79.9	74.9
5	THE MAR	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	96	89	77.4	81.8	69.3
4	SELECTO	4	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	79	53.6	66.5	52.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:30 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 83 • Purse: $110,000 • Post: 4:12P
KEE - R7 - FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER ON THE TURF ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $80,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT ONE MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * REINING FLOWERS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf ) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. LADY ORIENT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Cla ss Rating at the distance/surface. FLIP FLOPS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
10	REINING FLOWERS	5/2	4/1
4	LADY ORIENT	9/2	7/1
6	SHOTGUN WEDDING	7/2	7/1
9	FLIP FLOPS	12/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	INTO THE FRAY	2	15/1	Front-runner	63	75	103.3	57.8	47.8
6	SHOTGUN WEDDING	6	7/2	Front-runner	83	82	78.3	78.3	69.3
3	SWEET TREASURE	3	10/1	Front-runner	60	77	73.0	73.0	63.5
1	PRESHA	1	20/1	Front-runner	62	59	68.3	61.6	42.6
9	FLIP FLOPS	9	12/1	Stalker	76	64	85.5	64.4	52.4
5	DEAR LOUISE	5	12/1	Stalker	69	69	65.4	65.4	57.4
11	LITTLE MO	11	6/1	Trailer	64	70	66.8	66.8	55.8
8	FINE FINISH	8	15/1	Trailer	61	62	58.8	58.8	43.3
7	TERRA TOWN	7	30/1	Trailer	48	50	47.4	47.4	28.4
4	LADY ORIENT	4	9/2	Trailer	73	71	43.6	66.4	59.4
10	REINING FLOWERS	10	5/2	Trailer	80	76	36.5	73.0	63.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:31 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 83

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 A FABULOUS FLING 9/5
# 5 ANNIE D 5/1
# 7 JESS CANDY TIME 4/1

I think A FABULOUS FLING is a strong choice. This colt with Vivanco in the saddle makes him a solid contender. Is a solid contender - given the 80 speed figure from his most recent race. Has strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. ANNIE D - Looks formidable versus this field and will probably be one of the leaders. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group in her last contest. JESS CANDY TIME - Reliable average speed figures in short races make this racer a contender. Win percentage one of the strongest in this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:31 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 93

SA - R6 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $21,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER,124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 NENE DIAMOND 5/2
# 3 CLUBHOUSE BRIDE 12/1
# 2 NO CAP 8/1

NENE DIAMOND is my choice. Could best this group of horses in this race here, showing quite good figures of late. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. The speed rating of 89 from her latest affair looks competitive in here. CLUBHOUSE BRIDE - Has been running strongly lately and will probably be on the lead early on. NO CAP - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of horses recently. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:31 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:28pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#6 AWESOME OUTLAW (ML=5/1)
#3 MARCH WEST (ML=3/1)

AWESOME OUTLAW - A racer coming back this promptly after a sharp outing is a good signal. Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a top effort today. MARCH WEST - That last workout tells me this horse is set for a top effort. This horse coming off a solid try in the last 30 days is a serious competitor in my humble opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MISTER BEAMS (ML=5/2), #4 TAP N PLAY (ML=9/2), #5 TRIBAL QUEEN (ML=6/1),

MISTER BEAMS - This favorite hasn't been to the track in awhile. No workouts since last race. TAP N PLAY - Never really did much at all in the last race on September 20th. Hard to play in today's race. Garnered a most unsatisfactory speed rating last time around the track in the Remington Park Turf Sprint on Sep 20th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating. TRIBAL QUEEN - This filly hasn't had any recent good results in short distance events. Not easy to bet on her in this event. This vulnerable equine ran a disappointing speed figure last time around the track. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 AWESOME OUTLAW is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2024, 07:31 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #9 - Post: 11:02pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,700 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#9 EMPEROROFTHEDARK (ML=10/1)
#7 MONTAUK DADDY (ML=5/2)
#12 SMOOTH RICO (ML=2/1)
#3 ON THE COME UP (ML=9/2)
#2 ROYAL SPY (ML=12/1)

EMPEROROFTHEDARK - This gelding has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's contest. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should perform well today. Should do well today. Weight shift of -7 from Sep 21st race at Charles Town. MONTAUK DADDY - That last contest must not have been too hard on this gelding for him to be able to race again so quickly. The ROI when Hiraldo and Spriggs team up is outstanding. This horse earns a lot of dough per race around the track. Number one in this event. SMOOTH RICO - Gelding has shown some pace. This shorter distance should be better for him. Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class to make his presence felt. A repeat of that most recent performance on Jul 24th where he notched a speed rating of 78 looks lofty enough to prove victorious in this race. ON THE COME UP - Have to like the way Reynolds has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. Thorpe rode this mount for the initial time last time around the track and comes right back this time around. Last ran at Charles Town and finished fourth. Reviewing his past performance lines, I see he was close at the finish line, within five of the winner. Any front runner that is starting from the inside has a shot on this track. Should jump out of the gate and get good position versus this field. ROYAL SPY - Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter distance should be better for him. Breaking from the inside, this horse should have a distinct edge. His pace setting style should serve him well in this short race of 4 1/2 furlongs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CLAW (ML=7/2), #14 ROCKET APPEAL (ML=9/2), #10 BUFFALO SHUFFLE (ML=5/1),

CLAW - If you keep playing these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be frustrated regularly. ROCKET APPEAL - This mount ran a disappointing speed figure last out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably lose in today's race running that number. BUFFALO SHUFFLE - No accomplishments for this entrant in a sprint race over the last 60 days tells me that this gelding is in a tough spot Finished eighth last time out. Would have to improve to finish in the money in today's event. Garnered a mediocre rating in the last race in an Allowance race on September 19th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 EMPEROROFTHEDARK to win if you can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9] Box [2,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[7,9] with [7,9,12] with [2,3,7,9,12] with [2,3,7,9,12] Total Cost: $24