Sunday 10/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:36 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/13/2024

October 13, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita 2nd Race – Post: 1:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 3-Just Before Dawn
Backups: none

Forecast: Just Before Dawn is a first timer with a series of outstanding workouts that should have him fit and ready for a top performance in this extended sprint for older maidens. The son of Justify – a $625,000 weanling purchase at Keeneland – is a half-brother to multiple Grade-1 winner Moonshine Memories and finally makes it to the most late in his 3-year-old season for trainer B. Baffert, who hits at a phenomenal 30% with debut runners. This isn’t the strongest maiden field we’ve seen this meeting so if this promising sophomore colt can avoid any mistakes he should be hard to beat as a win play and rolling exotic single.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita – 6th race - Post: 3:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 6-Uptown Preacher
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Uptown Preacher has trained considerably better than a typical maiden claimer, but she’s been stopped and started on many times and a was scratch late in the recent Del Mar summer season out of what looked like a winning spot. She finally makes it to the post (hopefully) in a rather soft affair, and if she duplicate her morning ability in the afternoon the C. Gaines-trained four-year-old shouldn’t have any problem handling this modest assignment. At 5/2 on the morning line she offers good gambling value in the win pool and as rolling exotic single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:37 AM

Al Cimaglia:Northfiled Park All-Stakes Pick 4 Aanlysis

October 13, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Northfield Park finishes off Championship Weekend with another 15-race card. The Al- Stakes Pick 4 starts in Race 8. It has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (8:34 PM EST)

1-Sir Maverick (4-1)-Camera shy 3-year-old is worth a swing as the chalk draws post 7 and this gal has been facing top notch competition. Probably lacks the speed to protect the rail but Kayne Kaufman is the usual pilot, and he can provide a smooth journey.
6-Beaueastel (7/5)-Winner of 3 races in 4 starts at Nfld and should have her way with this crew. If dialed on high the post draw shouldn't matter.

Race 9 (8:56 PM EST)

4-Genetic Edge (5-1)-The Tyler Rush pupil is in fine form and with this post draw should be heard from. Brett Miller could leave and drop into the pocket behind the morning line choice.
6-Calypso Peal (7/5)-In the last 10 races the Christie Noble trainee has finished 1st five times and 2nd five times. Dan Noble won't do anything fancy, there's no need. He will leave in a hurry, get on the point, and could make every call a winning one.

Race 10 (9:18 PM EST)

2-She's Spicy (6-1)-This will be the 2nd time for Lasix, gets a new set of hands in Aaron Merriman, and raced better in the last race at Lex. Should be a price and maybe trainer Per Engblom has this gal pointed in the right direction.
3-Hot Tea (6-1)-Will fade the 8/5 morning line favorite #6, Justasiam AS and take a swing with this Vigil Morgan filly. Hasn't had a great year, but its trainer is hot and had a nice Saturday night. Does have a lot of half-mile experience, and is another price shot to consider.
4-Westfiftyfive (5/2)-Could try to get on the engine in this spot, with the post edge on the favorite. Should offer a fair price and is a player but needs Chris Page to provide a sharp steer.

Race 11

5-Downbythedanceclub (7/2)-Missed almost 2 months after 2 lame scratches. Qualified nicely on 9-3 and then had a sharp win at Dela on 9-16. There are question marks but is a main player if fully ready to bring a top try.
6-What An Ocean View (6-1)-The Burke pupil has won 2 of 4 at Nfld but recent form has been dull. Will shoot against the morning line chalk #3 and take a swing here. Has the gate speed to get the jump on others and has won 6 of 18 races this year.
8-Nine One Oh Six (7-1)-Here is another price shot to consider and has an abundance of gate speed. Winning the last start here from the rail going gate to wire on 10-6 doesn't guarantee success tonight. This will be much more difficult, no doubt, but not impossible. The game plan is obvious and hopefully won't be over bet.

$1.00 All-Stakes Pick 4

1,6/4,6/2,3,4/5,6,8
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:37 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #1

#1 Good Temper	She showed a little bit of late enthusiasm after a tricky start to her debut run, and she probably has enough upside to contend today while getting around two turns with that debut try under her belt.
#9 Queen in the Deck	Colonial invader doesn't seem totally overmatched here at what should be a midrange price on the board. Guessing she can play with this modest enough group.
#6 Spun Up	She rallied OK in the turf sprint debut, but she might like this more leisurely route tempo while moving to the main track with a pretty versatile pedigree. In the mix.
Race Summary	Good Temper ran OK at Churchill a few weeks ago and comes back with some upside while getting around two turns. Think she'll be the right one here.

Keeneland - Race #4

#2 Smart Union	She can probably build on the Colonial debut while getting some more ground to work with today, and I think any reasonable upside keeps her in the mix with these.
#8 Winter's Legacy	She'll go first out in a spot without a ton of serious form on paper so far, and she's got a big pedigree for the lawn. Get a look at her on the track ahead of this.
#5 Poverty With Aview	She stayed on well enough to land a distant underneath piece, but I could see her finding an OK spot in midpack while getting around two turns today. Not out of the question.
Race Summary	Smart Union was one-paced at first asking, but she might be able to translate that into something a bit better around two turns in a spot where a handful of them have similar profiles with upside today.

Keeneland - Race #8

#1 Star of Mystery	She has run in some really deep groups, and the price is going to reflect that. Still, I think you can lean on her a bit in this one after she chased the division leader a couple starts back and was right back to score.
#10 Kairyu	She's got just enough positional pace to avoid getting totally outrun in the early going, and she has been knocking on the door in those recent races. Thinking she can outrun the price today.
#6 Dontlookbackatall	Tactical speed should be in a good spot throughout, but I do think her ceiling is just a bit lower than a few others in here. Guessing she'll find a couple of them too tough, but she wouldn't be a massive shock with reliable form.
Race Summary	Star of Mystery will get bet here after a couple races that would probably do the job today if she's able to just hold that form. Kairyu might be the right midrange price to get in the picture with her.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 6	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)
Allowance • 870 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $31,300 • Post: 3:35P
QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. (QUARTER HORSES PREFERRED)(CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * WOODYBEJAMMIN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. POCO HOMBRE RAPIDO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. REDD METAL: Hors e ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RIG COUNTESS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
3	WOODYBEJAMMIN	3/1	5/1
7	POCO HOMBRE RAPIDO	12/1	7/1
8	REDD METAL	20/1	7/1
6	RIG COUNTESS	5/2	8/1
1	JESS RIDEN EASY	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JESS RIDEN EASY	1	10/1	Average	76	74	5.5	0.0	0.0
2	MR P A	2	8/1	Average	77	66	4.0	0.0	0.0
3	WOODYBEJAMMIN	3	3/1	Average	85	77	5.6	0.0	0.0
4	WISHO	4	7/2	Average	76	68	5.6	0.0	0.0
5	LITTLE MOON DAWG	5	9/2	Average	68	72	4.1	0.0	0.0
6	RIG COUNTESS	6	5/2	Fast	68	71	3.4	0.0	0.0
7	POCO HOMBRE RAPIDO	7	12/1	Average	79	75	5.5	0.0	0.0
8	REDD METAL	8	20/1	Average	77	77	4.0	0.0	0.0
9	ATTILAS TORNADO (T)	9	20/1	Average	76	69	4.5	0.0	0.0
10	SPLISH SPLASH (T)	10	20/1	Average	68	54	4.1	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Four
Claiming $12,500 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 61 • Purse: $10,455 • Post: 7:56P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * EAGLE DROPPING FIRE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MISS APOLLIDASH: Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WOLF: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the d istance/surface. FIVE KARAT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	EAGLE DROPPING FIRE	5/2	9/2
5	MISS APOLLIDASH	4/1	5/1
1	WOLF	5/1	8/1
3	FIVE KARAT	3/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	WOLF	1	5/1	Average	65	57	4.1	0.0	0.0
2	AGAINST ALL THE ODDS	2	5/1	Average	60	52	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	FIVE KARAT	3	3/1	Slow	64	55	9.3	0.0	0.0
4	RUN THRU THE NITE	4	10/1	Average/Trouble-prone	69	48	5.7	0.0	0.0
5	MISS APOLLIDASH	5	4/1	Average	74	62	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	EAGLE DROPPING FIRE	6	5/2	Slow	69	64	8.0	0.0	0.0
7	PATRIA	7	8/1	Slow	62	48	7.7	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:38 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Keeneland - Race #2 - Post: 1:32pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $49,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#3 EARL OF DASSEL (ML=8/1)
#9 REFUAH (ML=4/1)
#8 QUARRYMEN (ML=20/1)

EARL OF DASSEL - Was in an Allowance race at Penn National in the last race. That event had a class figure of 94 and he is moving down right here. A certain contender. REFUAH - The Jul 18th race at Saratoga was at a class level of (95). Dropping down in the class scale a significant amount, so he should be in a good position to win. QUARRYMEN - Racing at a similar level as last race on September 18th at Churchill Downs. I think Shorter has found a good spot for him, and I like his chances in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 GLOBAL PRIDE (ML=3/1), #11 LEND IT TEWMEY (ML=7/2), #1 HEADLINE REPORT (ML=5/1),

GLOBAL PRIDE - This chalk horse hasn't been to the track in awhile. No morning blow outs since last race. LEND IT TEWMEY - Tough to put your dough on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as often as this participant does. Finished second in his most recent race with a mediocre speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. HEADLINE REPORT - Difficult to wager on any animal in a sprint race at 5/1 when he hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last 60 days. Substandard speed rating in the last race at Keeneland at 6 furlongs. Don't think this steed will improve too much today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 EARL OF DASSEL to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:39 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $90000 Class Rating: 76

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SHARP SMILE 5/1
# 6 KISS ME SLOW 2/1
# 3 VESPERA 3/1

I give my vote to SHARP SMILE here. Shows strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group. May see a turn around with blinkers going on in this race. Must be given a chance based on the competitive speed figure put up in the last race. KISS ME SLOW - Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 71 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the top in this group. Ought to be considered - I like the numbers from the last race. VESPERA - Has been running solidly lately and will almost certainly be on or close to the front end early on. Ran a very solid last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:39 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Century Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:15pm - Optional Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,500 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#4 POINT TO THE STARS (ML=9/2)
#3 DON'T LET ME DOWN (ML=5/2)
#8 ATTENZIONE (ML=10/1)
#2 KYSTONE (ML=7/2)

POINT TO THE STARS - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +21. At the top of the stretch is when this one will make a strong move. A great chance to win this race. He got a decent speed rating the last time he tried this distance. DON'T LET ME DOWN - This horse was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. I really like that last effort on Sep 22nd at Century Downs where he ended up second. ATTENZIONE - Anderson must have known this gelding would run well at this track. Won his last race here on Sep 29th and now goes for a double. Gelding's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. Anderson brings him right back. I propose you stay with this hot gelding. The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Anderson. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. KYSTONE - Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a strong race on September 22nd.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 H K RAPPER (ML=3/1),

H K RAPPER - I'm prognosticating a lackluster try out of him this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 POINT TO THE STARS is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,3,8] with [2,3,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,3,8] with [2,3,8] with [2,3,8] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2024, 09:39 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 12 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 ILLINOIS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 BREAKING NEWS 7/2
# 5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT 5/1
# 7 PINBALLER 12/1

BREAKING NEWS is the strongest wager in this race. This gelding is a key contender based on his earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. CHRISTMAS PRESENT - Could provide positive dividends based on very good recent speed figures with an average of 74. With a very good 85 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. PINBALLER - A solid 84 avg class fig may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group of animals. Ran a strong last race.