Monday 10/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:05 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/14/24

October 14, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita 7th Race – Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection/Prime Play: 4-Queen of the Mud
Backups: none.

Forecast: We’re always partial to runners stretching out for the first time, especially if the angle is accompanied by other positive factors on the past performance chart. Queen of the Mud has the pedigree to stay a mile and catches a field that might allow her to be the controlling speed based on our pace projection. This year’s renewal of the Swingtime Stakes didn’t come up particularly strong, so with sprint numbers that fit very nicely on this circuit, she looks extremely live for an outfit that does quite well with these kinds of shippers. The presence of leading rider J. Hernandez certainly doesn’t hurt, so as the lukewarm morning line favorite at 3-1 this Irish-bred filly is worth a confident gamble in the win pool and a key in the various exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita – 8th race - Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection/Prime Play: 6-Zabo
Other Contenders none.

Forecast: Zabo had no idea what he was doing in his recent debut on grass, breaking well but dropping back to last midway before finally figuring things out in the final furlong to close a gap without posing a threat. The son of Justify galloped out very well in that race and since has breezed impressively in a pair of team drills while appearing considerably best and much more focused. He’ll try dirt today – he should handle the surface switch just fine – and with the barn’s “go to” jockey J. Hernandez taking over we suspect this colt will improve a ton. At 5-1 on the morning line, he’s strong play on the tote and the main push in rolling exotic play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:06 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 14, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway begins the week with a 9-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:40 PM EST)

1-Shine A Light (7/2)-Makes the 3rd start off the bench, and bumps up after a win from the rail on 9-30. Brent Holland could work another efficient trip and double up if the chalk has an off night.
3-Semi Tough (9/5)-The Burke trainee drops to a soft spot and may have finally met a beatable field. Has trouble finishing miles but comes back in sequence. Joe B could make every call a winning one with this post draw but can’t be completely trusted.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

1-Peace Out Posse (2-1)-The Joe B entry keeps moving up and now has posted 3 straight wins. This will be more of a challenge but best to not overlook, especially leaving from the rail.
3-Camara Moment (3-1)-Beat this kind on 8-5 off an efficient trip and did not lead every step of the way. Takes a good drop and should be there at the wire with a smooth steer.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Covered Bridge (5-1)-Could offer a square price and was pace compromised last time. Comes back in sequence and should be no worse than in the pocket off the gate. The price should be solid in an interesting affair.
2-RocknRoll Runa (4-1)-There are reasons to not use the Larry Stalbaum entry. Recent form has been dull, but now drops to a competitive level and gets Mark MacDonald back between the pipes. Could get a close-up trip and be the best down the lane in a race that should have a hot pace.
6-Nandolo N (7/2)-Jason Bartlett has the gate speed to land on the point. Now there is early speed inside, so maybe Bartlett doesn’t have his foot through the floorboard off the gate. The classy veteran could also grind it out and be in position to roll by down the lane.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

5-Pound for Pound (5-1)-Dropped to this level and didn’t do much for most of the mile. But that was from post 8, and this will be the first time in so soft and not being stuck further outside. Could be overlooked and my thinking is Brent Holland will be aggressive once the wings fold.
6-Italian Lad N (6-1)-Was having trouble versus $50k claimers but beat this kind on 8-10. Could be sitting on a big try and will look for a strong steer from ANap.
7-Gung Ho (7/2)-Pocono shipper faded after trying to wire similar but had missed a start. Fits well here, and this is the best chance for a win at Yonkers since beating the NW$30kL5 from the 8-hole in its first start on the Hilltop on 7-22.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,3/1,3/1,2,6/5,6,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:07 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#1 Chief Crazy Moon	Nothing but pace-and-fade tries from him last year, but there are a couple of decent local names on his page from those races, and I wonder if he can fire fresh from the fence late in the season. Dangerous if he shakes off the other potential challengers?
#3 Elusive Change	He's likely to prompt the top choice early on, but I think that guy might be a bit faster, and this one has never run a good one when denied the lead. Something will have to give for these top two.
#6 Hoppertullio	He made a decent move on the backstretch before flattening out going long last out, but that was a decent first spin over the local footing and might set him up for a competitive run on the cutback.
Race Summary	Chief Crazy Moon might have some fresh pace to offer today, and his only start at this level came in his last race before the long layoff. Might stay better today?

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#6 Party at the Beach	He stayed on to be second best last out behind an easy winner, and he looks fast enough to control the tempo again today. Doesn't appear to be a ton of other early burn lined up, so he might be able to put these away into the lane today.
#3 Zevon	He's getting a little short on excuses, but his overall form looks pretty reliable, and he'll probably be a decent fit with the local crew at this level. Obvious spying threat.
#5 Irish Stone	Think he'll need a couple things to go his way if he's going to land top honors today, but he never really runs a terrible one and figures in line for another share today.
Race Summary	Party at the Beach has what looks like a pretty solid pace edge on this group, and I expect that he'll be able to turn away the challenges today if left to himself early on.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#6 Honorable Win	She rallied well to score at first asking in stakes company, and she should get a fair pace to chase with a couple pretty serious front-end players lined up. Along to pick it up again.
#5 Morrigana	She's up in class out of a $25,000 debut spot, but I think she might be in an OK position heading into the turn while tracking some more committed pace players. Plugs along for a piece?
#2 Dixieland Belle	She's listed at 9/5 on the ML at first asking in this stakes spot, so get a look at her ahead of this for capable connections. Doesn't seem like she's meeting a group of world beaters, so I suppose a fresh face might make some sense.
Race Summary	Honorable Win can be tough while running back off the debut stakes win at Parx, and a few quick types drawn toward the fence might keep the splits honest enough for her late rally to do the trick again.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:08 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #1

#10 HE TAKES CHARGE (9-2)	Hard-hitting 9yo working well for return from year layoff, draws outside.
#2 ONE FOR RICHIE (5-2)	Awkward start, wide trip, fast-closing second at 6F, plenty of back class.
#6 RIVER BOY (12-1)	Proven at this level, can work out a favorable trip, price attached.
Race Summary	HE TAKES CHARGE has plenty of long-distance experience and finished first or second in 15 of 19 starts at the Horseshoe. He shows a pair of solid workouts for his seasonal debut and should sit an ideal stalking trip if he gets early position from post 10. Bet to win and place and play a 2-6-10 exacta box.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #2

#4 CHARMING CHACHA (5-1)	Caught odds-on fave in debut, tried stakes to no avail, good fit in here.
#5 TAP TAP TAP IT IN (7-5)	Survived duel, held off fast-closing second fave to break maiden.
#1 ILLEGAL CONTACT (7-2)	'Sprung 14-1, wire-to-wire upset in second start in a 12-horse field.
Race Summary	CHARMING CHACHA veered in at the start in a four-horse debut but ran down the 1-to-5 favorite with a ‘game’ rail rally. He’s back with his own kind after an ambitious stakes try and is worth a win and place bet at a decent price. Also play 4-1 and 4-5 exactas.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #4

#7 SHALLUS (2-1)	Met two 1-to-5 shots and a 2-to-5 shot when second in his last three starts.
#8 BREWING (10-1)	Dueled and tired in a well-bet and useful debut against Shallus, gets Lasix again.
#9 SWEET AS SIN (3-1)	Vied for the lead and held for minor awards in last three starts on dirt.
Race Summary	SHALLUS is piling up the checks and could upgrade to a victory for a low-percentage barn. He was impeded at the start two back at 6F, rallied 4-wide to a brief stretch lead and held second behind the 1-to-5 winner. Bet to win and place and play a 7,8/7,8,9/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:08 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fresno
PURCHASE

Fresno - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double $1 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Optional Claiming $32,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 3:15P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST THREE STARTS PREFERRED)(CAL-BRED OR CAL-SIRED HORSES THAT HAVE WON AN OPEN FIRST CONDITION ALLOWANCE RACE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MUST CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2 LBS. UNLESS ENTERED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. ANITANEWMERCEDES is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ANITANEWMERCEDES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MCLAREN VALE: Hors e had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TRUSTY RUSTY: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. CARDIFF CRACK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMa ster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
3	ANITANEWMERCEDES	5/2	3/1
4	MCLAREN VALE	3/1	5/1
5	TRUSTY RUSTY	5/1	9/1
1	CARDIFF CRACK	9/5	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ANITANEWMERCEDES	3	5/2	Front-runner	99	92	89.0	93.8	89.8
4	MCLAREN VALE	4	3/1	Stalker	98	91	83.0	98.2	96.2
2	HEAT N REHEAT	2	6/1	Stalker	95	91	68.6	84.2	75.7
5	TRUSTY RUSTY	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	97	94	81.4	77.5	69.0
1	CARDIFF CRACK	1	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	98	91	73.3	76.3	69.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:09 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 7	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 2nd Leg of $1 Horseshoe Hat Trick Turf Pick 3 / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Penta
Claiming $20,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $29,920 • Post: 5:16P
(RAIL AT 24 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY(CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * CALLAS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. AL TIRAH: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AMAZINGNESS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. LUCKY LESSON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LEFTOVER SUSHI: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
2	CALLAS	9/2	6/1
13	AL TIRAH	15/1	7/1
7	AMAZINGNESS	5/2	7/1
4	LUCKY LESSON	8/1	8/1
14	LEFTOVER SUSHI	10/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BOSSY JEANS	1	5/1	Front-runner	71	71	77.8	66.0	55.5
9	STREETCORNER	9	15/1	Front-runner	66	67	65.3	63.9	47.9
5	PRINCESS KALAMOH	5	15/1	Front-runner	74	70	64.5	57.8	46.3
11	NOSHUGFORPOP	11	6/1	Front-runner	81	72	54.3	66.8	53.3
10	LAST LEGACY	10	30/1	Front-runner	63	54	54.3	54.3	34.8
6	FLOWERY PATH	6	30/1	Front-runner	58	56	51.2	53.1	31.1
14	LEFTOVER SUSHI	14	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	75	64.9	66.3	58.8
13	AL TIRAH	13	15/1	Trailer	73	80	77.2	71.1	57.6
12	SWEET ENCHANTMENT	12	15/1	Trailer	73	65	61.6	72.0	50.0
2	CALLAS	2	9/2	Trailer	75	76	58.6	72.0	63.5
4	LUCKY LESSON	4	8/1	Trailer	75	72	58.0	69.0	57.0
7	AMAZINGNESS	7	5/2	Trailer	77	75	45.4	64.2	56.7
8	SOUTHERN MESA	8	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	68	62	58.8	61.2	41.2
3	MAIRSILS FIRST	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	63	22.5	22.5	1.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:09 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 14, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2023 - 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 GENERAL WINSTON 9/5
# 6 WAPITI WAY 10/1
# 12 EXTRA MEDIUM 8/1

GENERAL WINSTON is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Must be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone. Ran a strong last race. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class numbers of this field. WAPITI WAY - With a reliable jock who has won at a decent 16 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top picks.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:09 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:40pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#2 SHE CAN SCAT (ML=4/1)
#6 PHONE EATS FIRST (ML=8/1)

SHE CAN SCAT - My expertise says this is the only pace presser in the race. When this jock and conditioner join forces you have to take a look. Gonzalez and Siculietano have been fabulous together. Ran last time around the track against tougher competition at Monmouth Park. The move down in class should suit her well. PHONE EATS FIRST - PP lines show this pony with three improving speed figures. Silvera should be on a live horse right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 VANELLOPE (ML=9/5), #3 MARIA SAYS SO (ML=9/2), #5 LOST LOVE (ML=6/1),

VANELLOPE - Doesn't seem to be in a comfortable circumstance this time. MARIA SAYS SO - This youngster isn't going to beat the veterans today, maybe another time. LOST LOVE - This filly won last time, but probably won't come back today versus tougher competition. Recent decreasing Equibase speed figures of 54/47/43 give a clue that this animal may be going off form. Finished first in her most recent race with a quite unimpressive fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 SHE CAN SCAT to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:09 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8300 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 14, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 TEMBO 8/1
# 5 BATON 5/2
# 3 DREWPOWER 2/1

TEMBO has a very good shot to take this race and is a quite good value wager given the line. Should be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. Trainer has sharp win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately. BATON - Earning some nice profits in dirt route races. Put up a reliable speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. DREWPOWER - Could beat this group given the 78 Equibase Speed Figure garnered in his last outing. Has been right there at the finish line most every time as of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2024, 07:10 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#3 SHE'S MY FLAME (ML=5/2)

SHE'S MY FLAME - Stretching a campaigner out to a route after two sprints is a classic conditioning maneuver. Ranks number one in earnings per start (EPS). A strong try in today's race will add to the lifetime bankroll.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 RAPIDA (ML=6/5), #4 WARRENS FIFI (ML=9/2), #7 EMPRESS LORRAYNE (ML=6/1),

RAPIDA - I don't normally play a favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last two to three weeks. This filly registered a speed rating in her last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's event. WARRENS FIFI - In the last race this runner finished sixth. Doesn't look good for her chances today. EMPRESS LORRAYNE - 6/1 is just not enough of a value to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 SHE'S MY FLAME to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip