10-25-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Bolts and Sabres Wrap Up Home-And-Home
By Peter Pupello


Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres (-190, 5.5)
TV/RADIO: VERSUS; AM 970 WFLA

SEASON SERIES: It’s the second of four meetings on the year and the back end of a home and home series between the clubs. The Lightning and Sabres squared off in the first matchup of the season just three days ago at the St. Pete Times Forum where Tampa Bay earned a 3-0 shutout over Buffalo.

THE BIG STORY: After losing five of the first six, Tampa Bay has now won two straight and heads into the HSBC Arena seeking to take two in a row from the Sabres. On Saturday, goaltender Mathieu Garon backstopped the Bolts to a 3-0 whitewash of the Sabres with a 21-save effort. He’ll get the call again in net after allowing just one goal in his previous two combined outings.

TEAM SCOPE:

LIGHTNING: Tampa Bay plays the first match of a two-game road swing that concludes in Nashville on Thursday night. Tampa Bay enters the bout with Buffalo coming off consecutive wins for the first time all season. The recent success has been in large part due to the play of the team’s defensemen, who have just about done it all lately by providing both offense and defense in equal parts. On Saturday night, Pavel Kubina and Victor Hedman took care of the scoring, while Brett Clark extended his NHL-leading blocked shot total to 28 and Mathieu Garon stopped all 21 shots against to record his 20th career shutout. Martin St. Louis also added a goal. Tampa Bay has outscored its opponents 7-1 in its previous pair of outings, while limiting them to an average of just 19 shots on goal, exemplifying the “defense first” mentality that head coach Guy Boucher has been preaching.

SABRES: Following a two-game road trip through the state of Florida over the weekend, Buffalo returns home to take on the Lightning as it opens up a five-game home stand. On Saturday, the Sabres became the second consecutive victim to have a three-game win streak disrupted by Tampa Bay after the Lightning also snapped the New York Islanders’ stretch of three straight victories just two nights prior. Ryan Miller allowed two goals on 25 shots while the Sabres’ inability to score a single goal proved uncharacteristic for a team that had delivered at least three goals in each of its six games on the season. The Sabres are not only looking to rediscover their offense which was absent in the most recent meeting, but also for its first win at home after dropping the only contest so far at the HSBC Arena, 4-3, to Carolina back on Oct. 14.

WHO'S HOT: Vincent Lecavalier, Steven Stamkos and Teddy Purcell each come in riding three-game point streaks, while goaltender Mathieu Garon has allowed just a single goal in his last 120 minutes. Garon’s 1.51 goals-against average ranks fourth among all NHL net minders who have appeared in at least three games this season. Buffalo’s Thomas Vanek was held off the scoresheet on Saturday, but already comes in with six goals and 10 points on the year through his team’s first seven games. He has also had success against the Lightning throughout his career, scoring 22 goals – including three hat tricks – in 25 games.

INJURY REPORT: LIGHTNING - Mattias Ohlund (knee, placed on Injured Reserve). SABRES – Jochen Hecht (concussion) and Tyler Myers (ankle, out indefinitely).

NOTABLE QUOTABLE: “We won this past game 3-0 so they’re going to be coming at us looking for revenge. They’re probably not happy about that so we have to be ready for them. They’re a very tough team to play, especially in their barn, but at the same time it’s exciting to play that team too.” – Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman, on the challenge of playing the Sabres in consecutive games

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Tuesday's Best NHL Bets

New Jersey Devils at Los Angeles Kings (-200, 5)

So far the Los Angeles Kings are living up to their preseason hype.

Even with Drew Doughty out of the lineup, the Kings have jumped out to a 5-1-1 record thanks to balanced scoring and strong team defense to make up for the loss of Doughty, who won’t play Tuesday but is nearing his return.

Jonathan Quick has three consecutive shutouts under his belt heading into this one and may have had a decent shot at booking another one considering New Jersey’s spotty offense – that is, if coach Terry Murray gave him the start.

Instead, Murray will reportedly turn to Jonathan Bernier so that Quick can have a day off before the Kings set out on a three-game road trip later this week.

Bernier’s a fine backup, but with Marty Brodeur also out for the Devils, we’ll take a shot with the over.

PICK: Over


Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres (-190, 5.5)

At times Guy Boucher’s Tampa Bay Lightning were a tough team to play in all three zones – deadly in the offensive end, air-tight in the neutral zone, and at least capable in the defensive end.

They try to clog the middle of the ice at all times, blocking shots in their own end and jamming the opposition’s crease with bodies on the attack. It’s a great game plan – as long as everybody’s on board.

This season we’re seeing a team that’s much more comfortable with the program. The Lightning can get derailed by taking too many penalties, but as long as their goaltending holds strong, they’re in a position to win every night.

That’s why Mathieu Garon is getting a long look in Tampa’s net right now. Dwayne Roloson let in some softies already this year and Garon has stopped 37 of the 38 shots he has seen in two starts, including a 3-0 shutout of the Sabres over the weekend.

Look for another defensive battle and at this price, we’ll side with the Bolts to take another one from the Sabres.

PICK: Tampa Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Troy at Florida International: What Bettors Need to Know
By David Payne


Troy Trojans at Florida International Golden Panthers (-6, 55.5)

Fading Florida International hosts dreadful Troy in a Sun Belt showdown that only a bettor could love.

The Golden Panthers are coming off a 34-16 loss at Arkansas State last Tuesday and have lost three of four, failing to cover in each.

The 2-4 Trojans are skidding, too. They’ve lost two straight and have covered the spread only once this season.

FIU was an 8-point underdog at Troy last year, but racked up a school record 668 yards in a 52-35 drubbing of the Trojans. Troy’s defense is worse this season.

THE LINE

The Las Vegas Wynn opened Florida International as a 5-point favorite on Sunday afternoon, but the line had jumped to as high as 6.5 early Monday.
FIU has not fared well when favored, covering the number in only one of its last six as the favorite.

STATISCIALLY SPEAKING

Throughout his 21-year career at Troy, coach Larry Blakeney has put together overachieving teams. But this year’s Trojans are disappointing. Defensive struggles are the biggest reason why.

Troy ranks 113th in total defense, allowing 460 yards and nearly 35 points per game against a schedule that’s 91st in the Sagarin Ratings. The Trojans rank 90th or worse in 10 of the 13 statistical categories the NCAA lists on its team pages.

Needless to say, Florida International has a statistical advantage almost across the board. The Golden Panthers, though, have slumped since getting off to a 3-0 start that included solid wins at Louisville and against Central Florida.

FIU is balanced offensively, but not overly explosive. The Golden Panthers were held to less than 300 yards against Arkansas State. That sounds bad, until you notice that Troy’s offense had just 126 yards in last week’s 38-10 loss to Louisiana-Monroe.

INJURY REPORT

Neither team is reporting any impactful injuries.

WEATHER

Forecast call for late showers with a 14 mph ENE breeze at FIU Stadium.

TRENDS

Troy has covered the spread in five straight Tuesday night games.

Troy had been an ATS dynamo since joining the Sun Belt in 2004. Entering this season, the Trojans were 29-21-1 in conference play. But Troy has been trending down as of late, covering only two of its last nine Sun Belt games.

The Under is 9-2-1 in the last 11 FIU games against a team with a losing record.

Home-field has been overrated in this series, with the road team covering in five of the last six meetings.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Tuesday's Best NCAA CFB Bets

Troy Trojans at Florida International Golden Panthers (-6, 55.5)

It’s another Tuesday night Sun Belt NCAA football betting battle, and for the second straight week, we’ll see the Florida International Golden Panthers on display, this time against the Troy Trojans.

At 2-4 SU and just 1-5 ATS, it’s clear that these Trojans aren’t the same team that has historically dominated the Sun Belt. Troy lost a dozen players right at the outset of the season to ineligibility, and nearly half of those were projected to be starters. Now, QB Corey Robinson is left to basically pick up the pieces, and the sophomore just doesn’t have the answers for an offense that has struggled. It was a real testament to just how good WR Jerrel Jernigan really was, as he opened this entire offense up. Last year, Robinson threw for 3,726 yards with 28 TDs. This year, he only has 1,779 yards and nine TDs, and he is nowhere near on the pace that he was as a freshman. It’s not like the Trojans don’t have some potential, though. They had the lead on the Clemson Tigers once upon a time in Death Valley, and they only lost to the Arkansas Razorbacks by 10 on the road two weeks later. These last two weeks though, Troy has been embarrassingly bad, losing by 14 to the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns and 28 last week to the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks.

Can you believe that this is the third time that FIU has been on national television this year already? The Golden Panthers split those games, losing to the Arkansas State Red Wolves last week, but beating the Louisville Cardinals several weeks ago. The loss to ASU though, puts the defending Sun Belt champs into some hot water. Many just figured that they would roll to the league championship for a second straight year, but now with two losses already in conference, those title hopes are dimming. Even eight wins in the Sun Belt might not be good enough to go bowling unless there are a slew of vacancies that aren’t filled by other conferences, and Head Coach Mario Cristobal knows that he badly needs to win this game to get to 5-3 and to stay relevant in the eyes of the bowl selection committees. He has the talent to do some real damage, as QB Wesley Carroll is a fifth year senior that was a starter as a youngster on an SEC school, and WR TY Hilton is legitimately going to be a first round pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

Troy Trojans @ Florida International Golden Panthers Pick: The bottom line here though, is that the Trojans are finished, and the Golden Panthers are still up and coming. We have no doubt that the hosts are the better team by a comfortable margin. There’s a reason that this spread is already up two points from the open, and it will probably only continue to rise as we approach game day.

PICK: Florida International -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Tuesday's Betting Tips: FIU-Troy Line Bouncing Around

WHO'S HOT

NCAAF: The over is 15-6 in Florida International’s last 21 road games.

NHL: Detroit is 16-5 in its last 21 games as a favorite.

NHL: Anaheim is 22-9-1 in its last 32 games against Chicago.

WHO'S NOT

NCAAF: Troy is riding an 0-4 slide both straight up and against the spread.

NHL: Columbus is 0-7-1 to start the season.

NHL: Dallas is 5-11 in its last 16 games in Phoenix.

KEY STAT

188:10 – The Los Angeles Kings haven’t allowed a goal in 188:10, more than three full games thanks to goaltender Jonathan Quick’s incredible play. However, reports indicate it will be Jonathan Bernier in between the pipes for L.A. Tuesday at home to the Devils. The Kings are currently set as -200 favorites.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

Daniel Alfredsson, Ottawa Senators – Sens captain Ottawa Daniel Alfredsson will miss Tuesday's game against the Carolina Hurricanes with what is believed to be a hip flexor. Alfredsson said he does not believe the injury is serious and expects to be back in the lineup for Thursday's game against Florida. He has three goals and two assists in eight games this season. Ottawa recalled Kaspars Daugavins from the Binghamton Senators of the AHL to take Alfredsson's roster slot.

GAME OF THE DAY

Troy at Florida International (-6, 55.5)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“The most important thing you do is face reality. We’re not where we want to be as a football team, we’re not where we expect to be at this time of year. When I say that, I mean as an entire program – we’re not playing well enough, we’re not coaching well enough.” - FIU coach Mario Cristobal following his team’s 34-16 loss at Arkansas State.

TIPS AND NOTES

Florida International opened around -5 at a few Vegas shots but the line was bouncing around -6 and -6.5 in Nevada and online as of Monday evening. About 64 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors were siding with FIU, which is 0-4 against the spread in its last four. Oddsmakers have a total of 55.5 set for Tuesday’s game.

Washington Redskins running back Tim Hightower is done for the season after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in Sunday's loss to the Carolina Panthers. Hightower, in his first season with Washington, has rushed for 321 yards and a touchdown on 84 carries this season. Moss, who also was hurt in Sunday's game, underwent surgery Monday and had three pins placed in his left hand. The 32-year-old Santana has 25 receptions for 301 yards and two touchdowns this season. He had played in all 16 games in each of the past three seasons and recorded a career-high 93 receptions last season. Washington opened as a 5.5-point underdog at Buffalo.

Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson could return to this weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Texans coach Gary Kubiak said he expects Johnson to return to practice sometime this week and called the chances of his star wideout playing Sunday "definitely a possibility." Johnson has been sidelined for three games while recovering from surgery to repair the distal tendon in his hamstring.

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NCAA CFB

Season
Straight Up: 551-181 (.753)
ATS: 208-213 (.494)
ATS Vary Units: 1266-1335 (.487)
Over/Under: 204-210 (.493)
Over/Under Vary Units: 504-537 (.484)

Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 28, Fiu 25

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Troy at Florida International

The Trojans look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Troy is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Troy (+6 1/2).

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 25 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 101-102: Troy at Florida International (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Troy 77.435; Florida International 77.616 Dunkel Line: Even; 59 Vegas Line: Florida International by 6 1/2; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Troy (+6 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Troy +6-

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo, who split with his Rangers and NFL parlay investments Sunday, was 3,535 carbos below the equator going into last night’s guesses with the Ravens and Rangers.

Today, desperation takes him to Parx where Post Pony Picker Anthony Affrunti advises a Pick 3 involving Rage of Aquarius and Sweet Ginger Brown in the 5th, Indys Spell and Fire Eater in the 6th, and Two Brash and Dads Little Man in the 7th. Two units on each combo.

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Saturday ... Take Idaho + 7.5 over Hawaii

[Mr. IWS]

PURE LOCK

Troy vs. Florida Intl
Troy+6½-105
FREE CFB PLAY TUESDAY

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Troy + FIU UNDER 56

[Mr. IWS]

Sportbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Troy + FIU UNDER 56

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NHL Picks

Tampa Bay at Buffalo

The Lightning look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +150 to +200. Tampa Bay is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 25 Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.813; NY Islanders 10.656 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-125); 5 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); Under

Game 53-54: Ottawa at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.554; Carolina 10.981 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-180); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-180); Over

Game 55-56: Detroit at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.844; Columbus 11.205 Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-180); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+160); Over

Game 57-58: Tampa Bay at Buffalo (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.755; Buffalo 11.396 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-175); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155); Under

Game 59-60: San Jose at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.007; Nashville 11.655 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+110); Under

Game 61-62: Anaheim at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.081; Chicago 12.222 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-180); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-180); Over

Game 63-64: Vancouver at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.133; Edmonton 11.292 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-145); Over

Game 65-66: Dallas at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.093; Phoenix 11.412 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+100); Under

Game 67-68: New Jersey at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.743; Los Angeles 11.476 Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-200); 5 Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+170); Under