Wednesday 10/16/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #5

#6 Moon Spun	She might be in the right spot while turning back a furlong, and I like that she has a little bit of proven success while racing a couple lengths off the splits. Think the next one will help keep the price somewhat playable.
#4 Royal Slipper	Wouldn't be any surprise to see her score here after showing sharp pace on the main track for a team that historically does great work in these types of races. Price probably gets short, but she's the one to beat.
#9 La Foret	Nothing yet from her against winners, but she certainly has some room to improve while getting back over to the grass. Price should be appealing enough to keep her in mind.
Race Summary	Moon Spun and Royal Slipper look like the right pair, but the former has shown a bit more tactical ability that could serve her well in a spot with a couple other forward players who may ensure 'Slipper doesn't get a break.

Keeneland - Race #6

#5 Generous Tipper	He went evenly in the comeback run at Churchill last month, but there is probably some upside today in the second start off the break while moving back over a surface on which he earned a Grade I placing as a 2-year-old. Might be ready at something a bit shorter than the 8/1 ML?
#8 Yellow Brick	He's a reliable finisher, but I worry that he's not going to get a great setup today in a spot without much committed early speed. Capable, but maybe up against it.
#10 D'oro Unbridled	He's got a big pedigree to race up to, but he's heading in the right direction and figures in line for a great trip while spying the speed. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here.
Race Summary	Few things working in Generous Tipper's favor today, and he should be in a good spot right up near the splits today on what feels like a modest race shape.

Keeneland - Race #8

#10 Rocket Night	He's getting a little short on excuses at this point, but he has done his best work at or near this kind of level and might be in a decent spying spot. Plugs away to score from there?
#12 Active Duty	He makes the top choice seem like a fresh face with even more tries on his page, and he's an obvious player from off the pace with these. Not sure I'd be thrilled with too short a price.
#2 Indy Charge	Dropper has dangerous pace in a spot without a ton of committed early burn, but it's not the greatest sign to see him here for this modest tag with pretty seriously declining form right now. He could run these off easily, but he's a fairly principled stand against for me today.
Race Summary	Rocket Night has decent enough form when you isolate the tries near this tag, and he might be just a touch overlooked as the second or third choice.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#3 HEIROZAN (9-5)	All-or-nothing on the class drop off the claim for more than twice this much.
#1 LUCKY OPPORTUNITY (6-1)	Parx invader gets needed class relief, must stay in contact with leaders.
#2 PASSING BAYOU (3-1)	Controlled soft pace, dug in to prevail at 1-to-5 odds.
Race Summary	HEIROZAN went wire-to-wire in a $35,000 maiden claimer but got beat a combined 48 lengths in three subsequent starts. She takes a big class drop off the claim, adds blinkers, and should be forwardly placed throughout. Bet to win and play 3-1 and 3-2 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#2 MILLIBAR (9-2)	Fired bullet since wake-up call in third start, gets new rider in repeat attempt.
#4 TWENTY ONE KID (8-1)	Sharp improvement in form, ran third behind the two favorites last out.
#9 BANGKOK BOB (5-2)	Equaled top speed fig in field in maiden win, no factor in follow-up stakes.
Race Summary	MILLIBAR awakened in his third start, sprinting clear, drawing out on the turn and holding safe a well-meant first-time starter for the win. He shows the fastest of 38 workouts last Friday and is taken to repeat. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-9 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#1 SABI (7-2)	Rallied to win on firm and soft footing with blinkers on, draws inside today.
#5 GOOD KNIGHT NILE (10-1)	Improved speed with equipment change, price play in gimmick wagers.
#11 RUM TUM TUGGER (15-1)	Upstaged string of seconds with a winning rally last time on the lawn.
Race Summary	SABI, blocked coming off the turn, angled inside and got up to beat the 2-1 pace setter. He seeks his third consecutive victory on the turf after blinkers were added and should appreciate the added ground. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-10-11 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 5	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta /10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 2:28P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LEVEL UP is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LEVEL UP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. RENEGADE SERENADE: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DANCE A DINI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	LEVEL UP	2/1	3/1
8	RENEGADE SERENADE	3/1	9/2
2	DANCE A DINI	9/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	LEVEL UP	3	2/1	Front-runner	80	81	72.4	78.0	73.0
8	RENEGADE SERENADE	8	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	81	85	62.4	75.4	66.4
1	MAJESTIC LION	1	12/1	Trailer	83	84	37.2	76.6	67.1
2	DANCE A DINI	2	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	82	85	55.4	77.6	71.6
4	FAST PAYDAY	4	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	81	76	54.0	65.8	57.3
5	GRATED COCONUT	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	77	65.4	66.4	54.4
7	COMMINGLING	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	67	57.0	57.0	43.0
6	BALANTYNE	6	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	81	48.6	70.6	64.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 5	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 5-6-7) Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 4:48P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 16, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2023 - 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ANADOR (FR): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CHEROKEE CHATTER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. STARSHIP MACYS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. UPPITY UP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MILLE DREAMS (FR): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	ANADOR (FR)	5/2	5/1
8	CHEROKEE CHATTER	4/1	6/1
5	STARSHIP MACYS	6/1	8/1
4	UPPITY UP	3/1	9/1
6	MILLE DREAMS (FR)	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	STARSHIP MACYS	5	6/1	Front-runner	74	73	80.8	65.4	58.4
8	CHEROKEE CHATTER	8	4/1	Front-runner	81	73	72.0	66.4	60.4
3	ANADOR (FR)	3	5/2	Stalker	80	72	72.6	69.2	66.2
2	LOIS	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	73	48.9	57.2	45.7
6	MILLE DREAMS (FR)	6	5/1	Trailer	79	68	69.4	66.2	59.7
4	UPPITY UP	4	3/1	Trailer	75	69	64.6	70.4	62.9
7	SCOOP THERE IT IS	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	49	68.8	47.2	32.7
1	SHORESY	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	65	65.6	58.2	44.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $40500 Class Rating: 90

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 HEZA CLASSY NOW 8/1
# 4 FREEDOM FLASH 5/2
# 5 MILK IT (T) 3/1

HEZA CLASSY NOW is my selection and is a very good value bet given the line. This animal could shock this bunch at a solid price. With a quite good 84 speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Formidable average Equibase Speed Figures in longer quarter horse races make this pony a contender. FREEDOM FLASH - Vaunts sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. Is difficult not to consider given the company run in recently. MILK IT (T) - Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (90 average) at today's distance and surface recently. This gelding could improve on Lasix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Keeneland - Race #2 - Post: 1:32pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#4 DEEPLY HIDDEN (ML=2/1)
#6 MORALLY (ML=6/1)


DEEPLY HIDDEN - This jockey and trainer are dependable together. Win percent when teamed up is difficult to best. Faced tougher last time around the track at Del Mar. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this one on my list of strong contenders. Ranks uppermost in earnings per start (EPS). A strong effort right here will boost the lifetime bankroll. With 'blinkers-on' this colt should be very competitive. MORALLY - I like the fact that this colt's last speed rating, 60, is tops in this field. This animal has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 32 to 55 to 60 in succession. The addition of blinks usually means that a trainer wants a horse to show more zip or to keep his attention focused.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 GREATDAYFORHOCKEY (ML=3/1), #1 G. ERIK (ML=9/2), #7 IL MARCHESSE (ML=8/1),

GREATDAYFORHOCKEY - Tough to bet on at 3/1 odds after the two most recent outings. G. ERIK - Hasn't been close at all of late. This sustainer should have a rough go of it to be along in time with the paucity of early speed in this race. Finished eighth in his most recent effort with a disappointing speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field. IL MARCHESSE - The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this animal as a possibly overvalued contestant.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MORALLY - I play this angle all the time. Top TM Power Rating and morning line odds of at least 5/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 DEEPLY HIDDEN to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $46240 Class Rating: 86

IND - R8 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 JANEY CREED 5/2
# 9 BREEZING ALONG 20/1
# 4 CLASSIC CLAIRE 9/2

JANEY CREED is the best bet in this race. Had one of the strongest Speed Figures of this group of animals in her last race. Overall the Speed Figures of this equine look very good in this race. CLASSIC CLAIRE - Morales will almost certainly be able to get this filly to break out early in this competition. Must be given consideration based on the very strong Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Remington Park - Race #4 - Post: 7:57pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#1 SLEW SKIES (ML=3/1)
#3 PAINTED LAD (ML=7/2)


SLEW SKIES - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this pony is encountering an easier bunch than in the last race at Remington Park. I think that the addition of the 'hood' today will keep his mind on the race at hand. Trying to get to the winner's circle for the 1st time moving from a race on the turf to the dirt. I think Gelner will have him in good shape for today's race. PAINTED LAD - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid race on Sep 18th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SAFE BET (ML=2/1), #2 SUPERHERO (ML=4/1), #6 GOLDEN PURSUIT (ML=5/1),

SAFE BET - This come from behinder will probably be rallying much too late to make a mark in this race. SUPERHERO - Can't wager on this pony in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance clash lately. Don't feel this less than sharp equine will do much running in today's event. That last rating was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure. GOLDEN PURSUIT - He showed not much at all in the last contest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 SLEW SKIES on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass