Thursday 10/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:45 AM

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Turf Pick 3 Analysis | Thursday, 10/17

October 16, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

One wager I have not written about on this blog, but enjoy quite a bit at Keeneland is the All- Turf Pick 3. Other tracks have picked up on this bet in one form or another, but it was created at Keeneland in 2021. It has a $3 minimum denomination, a player friendly 15% takeout, and is conducted over the last three turf races on the card. Hopefully we can get the week off to a good start with a score in this wager on Thursday afternoon.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 4:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Justifable Belle
Backups: 2 Lucky Speech; 1 Quality Star

Forecast: I am expecting an honest pace in this third-level allowance at 1 1/16-miles with #2 Lucky Speech drawn to the inside and #11 Join the Dance drawn to the far outside, but nothing too crazy. That should leave 5-2-morning line favorite #3 Justifiable Belle in a perfect spot early after a runner-up effort against similar at Kentucky Downs for trainer Ian Wilkes. In her last try, the Justify filly broke well, worked out a clean outside stalking trip, but was unable to hold off the eventual winner, Lute Warm, who has now rattled off four straight wins for trainer Brittany Russell. The 8.5-furlong distance is a bit of a question mark for the Justifiable Belle, but she is the one to beat nonetheless.

The aforementioned Lucky Speech may get pressed early on in this race, but she comes in off of a pair of victories at Ellis Park for trainer Joe Sharp. She was disrespected by the public in those wins going off at 15-1 in both runs and could be a double-digit price once again with Edgar Morales returning to ride. #1 Quality Star does not appear to be the same mare she once was, but loves it at Keeneland and should get a ground saving voyage under Brian Hernandez Jr. I will use both price options as backups.

Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Portofino; 8 Cruzin Man; 9 Gilded Ruler
Backups: None

Forecast: #6 Linzer is listed as the lukewarm 3-1-morning line choice in this second-level allowance event at 5.5-furlongs after a runner-up run versus similar at Kentucky Downs last month. The Carl Moore Management colt has the early zip to be involved early after a wire-to-wire score at Kentucky Downs in late August. He has hit the board in 8 of 11, but has had an affinity for running second making him difficult to trust unless he really has things his way on the front end. #4 Double Clutch also appears vulnerable despite a solid runner-up effort against similar last month. The Calumet Farm homebred fits well against these, but I have always thought of this gelding as a horse that wants a bit more ground than he gets in this spot. #2 B D Valeski also makes sense, but at 4-1 is worth fading. The Greg Foley trainee is honest, but is just 2 for 26 and 0 for 7 in 2024.

#1 Portofino is one I will include. The Speightster gelding ships in from Florida off of a third-place effort going one-mile over the Gulfstream lawn. If jockey Axel Concepcion is able to avoid getting caught in a tight spot along the inside, he is highly capable at a solid price for veteran conditioner Joe Orseno. I will also use #8 Cruzin Man. The speedy son of Chitu should be able to outsprint Linzer to the front. If so, he has proven more than capable of forgetting to stop. #9 Gilded Ruler is a big price, but worth inclusion. The 5YO gelding has not raced since February, but has races to go back to that win this. Hopefully we can separate from the public in this leg.

Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 11 Aussie Girl
Backups: 4 Saffron Moon

Forecast: Thursday’s All-Turf Pick 3 concludes with another third-level allowance at 8.5-furlongs and the pace should be hot in this one. #1 Tequilera is likely to go, along with #6 Samay and #12 She’s Lookin Lucky. I am hopeful this benefits #11 Aussie Girl. The Irish-bred filly makes her second start in the States after chasing a wire-to-wire buzzsaw in AG Bullet in the Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) in late August. In that North American debut, the William Walden trainee broke slowly from her far outside draw and really never had a fair shot. Now Walden stretches her out to two-turns and legs up one of the best in the world in Irad Ortiz Jr. I expect a big move forward with the addition of Lasix for the initial time.

#4 Saffron Moon is 2 for 2 at Keeneland and also should benefit from the likely race shape, but has not raced in 11 months. If she is able to relax off the long break and put forth her best, she will be tough to beat, but that is an obvious question for the 3-1-morning line favorite.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:46 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #5

#2 Successful Union	He ran on with some enthusiasm from far back in the debut run at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and there isn't a ton of serious finishing form lined up on paper here. Might be a touch more tactical at this trip at second asking.
#11 Cocktailsnkringle	He ran a good one in the debut and then had a tricky go of things in that last one, but I figure he might still have something better to show if he can get a clean run today.
#3 Uncle Jim	This doesn't feel like the deepest race we'll see for this level, so this fresh face would be no surprise for a top team. Check him out ahead of this.
Race Summary	Successful Union has some improving to do if he's going to graduate today, but he might not have to finish from so far back today and has some reasonable upside with Prat signing on second out.

Keeneland - Race #8

#4 Saffron Moon	Not sure the price is going to be much here, but she can be dangerous while racing fresh off the bench. She should be in line for a great trip tracking a couple more committed forward players.
#6 Samay	She has been knocking on the door in those last couple starts, and she'll probably be another relatively appealing price with this group today. Like the versatility she showed in closing a bit last out.
#2 Heavenly Appointed	Her ceiling might be just a touch lower than a few others in here, leaving her vulnerable to finding one or two of them too good today, but she's fairly honest and might plug away for a share from midpack.
Race Summary	Saffron Moon should get a big jump on the finishing threats in here, and she gets some class relief off the bench while dropping out of graded company.

Keeneland - Race #9

#9 General Issue	He might find a pretty good spot tracking the splits while racing off the bench and already handled the local footing OK last year as a 2-year-old. In the mix if he's come forward at all from last year.
#8 Rafaroo	He drops out of a million-dollar race and doesn't seem to find anyone like My Boy Prince in this group. Dirt is the question, but he wouldn't be a surprise on general performance so far.
#2 Neon Bordeaux	He and his barnmate just outside both have some appeal in here, but this fresh face might offer a better number on the board. Get a look at him ahead of this, and consider #3 Tennessee Lamb who brings the toughest company lines by far.
Race Summary	General Issue should be an OK price with some 2-year-old form that is sure to look slow on paper compared to those with more recent efforts on their page, but I'm hoping he has improved and will be ready to roll off the layoff today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:46 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#8 WEMBY (5-2)	Drops below claim level, towers over weak field, short price looming.
#9 INBOUND (7-2)	Was on both sides of win photo in last two starts on dirt, tries sprint.
#7 DUDEWITHANAME (20-1)	Faded in first start as a gelding in race that has proven productive.
Race Summary	WEMBY takes a magnified class drop in this field, meeting several rivals who were beaten by many lengths in their last start. The 3-year-old should easily upstage a string of recent in-the-money finishes but don’t expect the 5-2 morning-line price. Make a flat win bet and play 8-7 and 8-9 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#5 DANTASTIC (6-1)	In winning hunt with duplicate of latest, two starts removed from voided vet claim.
#9 AMIRATI (4-1)	Speed to factor a long way from more favorable post than last pair.
#11 HAPPY HAPPY TIM (6-1)	Five seconds in last six starts, draws outside.
Race Summary	DANTASTIC followed the 3-wide move of the 9-to-5 winner and finished second in a tougher spot. She should sit a good stalking trip for a high-percentage trainer-jockey tandem. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#2 JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT (5-1)	Hitting best stride at age 9, seeks class rising three-peat.
#10 BORRACHO (6-5)	Led at every call in four straight wins on dirt, sheds 8 pounds.
#1 STRIKING SPEED (15-1)	In winning contention in last five starts but lacked stretch kick.
Race Summary	JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT continues his ascent through the claiming ranks, in search of his third consecutive victory. He added blinkers last out and won geared down for a barn that keep them sharp. Bet to win and place and play a 2-10 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:46 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park
PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race 2	Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 68 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 6:32P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PYC FURY JM: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
8	PYC FURY JM	3/5	4/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LOTA WAVES	1	15/1	Average	63	50	6.0	0.0	0.0
2	FLYINGREDLIPSTICK	2	30/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	6.2	0.0	0.0
3	CC GO ALFA	3	50/1	Slow	0	0	8.8	0.0	0.0
4	ILLMAKEYOUPAY	4	10/1	Slow	52	35	6.9	0.0	0.0
5	JTC MEXICO CASH	5	12/1	Slow	0	0	8.2	0.0	0.0
7	PRE MO WAGON	7	12/1	Slow	0	0	6.6	0.0	0.0
8	PYC FURY JM	8	3/5	Average	70	74	5.4	0.0	0.0
9	HEZ A FAMOUS EAGLE	9	9/2	Fast	56	48	3.4	0.0	0.0
10	JETTPEARL	10	30/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11	EYE OF PATRICK	11	30/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	9.3	0.0	0.0
12	SG HAWKEYEINTHESKY	12	8/1	Average	0	0	5.5	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: DONT LET ME DOWNN (15/1) [Jockey: Pulido Juan - Trainer: Sedillo Tony E].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:47 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Claiming $15,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $27,200 • Post: 3:54P
IND - R4 - (RAIL AT 24 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES) INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA BRED CLAIMING RACES FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * POLYGLOT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. HARD MISSION: Horse rank s in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PATCH O'BRIEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ONE LAST BID: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance ( within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). GIOVANNINO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	POLYGLOT	8/1	6/1
10	HARD MISSION	8/1	6/1
7	PATCH O'BRIEN	10/1	6/1
4	ONE LAST BID	9/2	9/1
8	GIOVANNINO	7/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	GHOST BIKE	5	20/1	Front-runner	87	79	80.6	68.0	50.0
8	GIOVANNINO	8	7/2	Front-runner	87	87	74.0	77.4	70.4
13	SKALKAHO	13	12/1	Front-runner	80	76	63.3	74.0	56.0
14	TAP ON BY	14	30/1	Front-runner	63	62	43.2	43.2	15.2
1	MISTER MOSCATO	1	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	75	59.5	63.5	45.5
3	POLYGLOT	3	8/1	Stalker	86	87	74.4	79.4	74.4
6	CAUSE A RUCKUS	6	15/1	Stalker	81	77	54.3	74.7	56.7
10	HARD MISSION	10	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	86	74.4	84.4	73.4
4	ONE LAST BID	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	83	85	70.4	76.0	65.5
12	DIRBAS	12	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	80	66.9	74.7	59.7
2	LEAD FOOT	2	6/1	Trailer	71	65	88.9	83.1	63.6
9	EGYPTIAN KING	9	12/1	Trailer	86	75	61.0	71.0	53.0
7	PATCH O'BRIEN	7	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	85	59.7	73.9	67.4
11	GROOM LAKE	11	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	85	54.6	75.4	58.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:47 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 75

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 ZOOMIN DASH 3/1
# 2 MASONS JET BLACK 2/1
# 7 POWER OF THE SMILE 10/1

ZOOMIN DASH looks respectable to best this field. Overall the speed figures of this horse look solid in this race. Is a sharp contender based on figs garnered as of late under today's conditions. MASONS JET BLACK - With a nice class rating average of 81, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figures (67 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. POWER OF THE SMILE - Hernandez will probably be able to get this colt to break out early for this event. Very good jockey and handler combo winning 15 percent of their races working together.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:47 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #4 - Post: 1:58pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#3 EDELWEISS (ML=5/1)

EDELWEISS - This colt finished well ahead of the show horse on Sep 13th. Those horses tend to run well next time out. You always have to be on the watch for money making jockey/handler teams; we have one right here. Earnings per race is something that I feel can be a very important factor. This thoroughbred is ranked at the very top in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SET FOR LIFE (ML=5/2), #2 IRISH INDYGO (ML=3/1), #1 FINN D'ORO (ML=6/1),

SET FOR LIFE - Tough to wager on any runner in a short distance clash if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months. Tough to invest in any horse like this that didn't land in the money after the long turnout and comes right back. 5/2 odds isn't enough for this participant when examining the most recent efforts. IRISH INDYGO - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance race in the last sixty days. Not the best of omens. Will probably be at the rear with too much to do down the homestretch. FINN D'ORO - Showed very little in the last affair. Really don't see any hint of a reversal of fortune today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 EDELWEISS is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with 6
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:48 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27400 Class Rating: 65

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 BEAUMONT DRIVE 3/1
# 3 SLOANS SKY 6/1
# 6 IRON PRINCESS 8/1

BEAUMONT DRIVE looks formidable to best this field. Boasts formidable speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses. Could best this group of horses based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 68 - of her last contest. Is a very solid contender based on figs garnered lately under today's conditions. SLOANS SKY - Must be carefully examined here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. Ought to be given consideration - I like the figs from the last outing. IRON PRINCESS - Adams has recent ROI figs which make this one a very good wager. Adams will probably be able to get this mare to break out early for this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-17-2024, 06:48 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#7 SMART JOKER (ML=5/2)
#6 BLAMEITONMYMOMMA (ML=5/2)

SMART JOKER - This gelding is in top form right now. Finished second last time out and comes back quickly. BLAMEITONMYMOMMA - Although I sometimes have doubts about a horse who didn't win as the favorite in his last race, this colt got a solid fig and fits well here. Look at this pattern of improvement. 64/73/81 are the last 3 speed figures. He has the topmost earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 UNDERTOW (ML=5/1), #5 GOVERNOR ATWOOD (ML=6/1), #10 BACKDOORPARTY (ML=8/1),

UNDERTOW - I'd like to see better recent outings with morning line odds of 5/1. Going to have a hard go of it with all the other early foot in this event. GOVERNOR ATWOOD - You think this animal is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first regularly. BACKDOORPARTY - This gelding gave a less than rousing performance last time. Finished tenth in his most recent performance with a mediocre fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BLAMEITONMYMOMMA - This colt's superior last speed number of 81, against these horses, makes him the overwhelming choice.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 SMART JOKER is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Thursday 10/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 10/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment