Saturday 10/19/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-18-2024, 07:15 AM

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, Oct. 19

October 17, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The third of four October Saturdays at Keeneland features a pair of graded stakes events for 3YOs going one-turn. The Perryville (G3) came up strong and kicks off the late Pick 4 while the Raven Run (G2) will likely have a heavy favorite in Test (G1) runner-up Emery. Both races are included in the ongoing Hit & Split Late Pick 4 promotion at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET and I am hoping to snag my share of the 1 million rewards points up for grabs.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 7: Perryville (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Book’em Danno
Backups: 9 Dilger; 1 Henro

Forecast: We have another competitive edition of this Grade 3 event for 3YOs sprinting 7-furlongs led by #5 Book’em Danno. The Jersey-bred son of Bucchero has simply had an awesome start to his career. The Derek Ryan trainee has rattled off 6 of 9, including a win back in June in the Woody Stephens (G1) on the Belmont Stakes undercard at the Spa. Ryan has given Book’em Danno time since his career best race and he should get an honest pace to run at making him the deserving 2-1-morning line favorite.

Book’em Danno’s top rivals in this year’s Perryville are a pair of extremely talented runners that are coming off significant layoffs. #3 Knightsbridge is posted as the 3-1-morning line second choice by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. The Godolphin homebred won his first two starts by a combined 19 lengths, but we have not seen him since his nine-length score at Gulfstream Park on March 28. His trainer Bill Mott is 0 for 10 at the meet as of Thursday morning and just 4 for 61 over the last ninety days. The Nyquist colt very well could need one to be ready for this caliber of competition. I am willing to fade him as well as #10 Locked who is coming in off an even a longer break. The favorite in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) has not competed since his well-beaten third to stablemate, Fierceness. I had a lot of respect for the Gun Runner colt as a 2YO and am looking forward to seeing him resume racing, but am going to watch one here at his 7-2-offering.

If you are looking to include prices to kick off the sequence, perhaps one of the runners exiting last month’s Harrods Creek at Churchill Downs has a bit of a look. #1 Henro won that race for trainer Chris Hartman. He got a good setup, but could do so again on Saturday. Henro beat #9 Dillger in that 7-furlong affair, but Dilger was three-wide throughout and part of a contentious pace. I like his chances to outrun his 20-1 price.

Race 8:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Paros; 12 Taking Candy; 3 Irish Aces
Backups: 2 Bold Discovery

Forecast: I am leaning on the chalk for the most part in the first leg, but not in this third-level allowance event at 1 1/16-miles over the lawn. #10 Dripping Gold comes in off a six-length score at Kentucky Downs for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey. The Lemon Drop Kid gelding has always been highly regarded evidenced by the fact he has gone off at 4-1 or under in 12 of his 19 starts. The problem is he has just three wins with one of them being on debut at Saratoga in 2021. He feels vulnerable, especially when you add an outside draw in this full field into the mix.

#12 Taking Candy will also take plenty of support for red-hot Cherie DeVaux. DeVaux has four wins at the meet thus far and this $400k OBS March 2022 purchase figures to get a perfect stalking trip just off the pace of longshot #8 Mister Muldoon. He is much more difficult for me to toss. #3 Irish Aces is also worth inclusion. The Pocket Aces Racing runner has a win in his only try over this course and retains the services of Tyler Gaffalione.

#1 Paros intrigues quite a bit despite needing another move forward to beat these. The Cairo Prince gelding has rattled off three straight wins, including his first start off the claim for Mike Maker in early September. What is most noteworthy about that recent victory at Saratoga is not only that he ran down the two speeds with no real setup, but also that it ended an 18-race losing streak for trainer Mike Maker. Maker would then take nine more days to earn his next win. This horse can seal the deal if he gets the right trip.

Race 9: Raven Run (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Emery
Backups: 7 Mink’s Palace; 2 Miuccia

Forecast: The aforementioned #5 Emery makes her first start since a runner-up effort over the muddy going to Ways and Means in the Test (G1) in early August. The Stonestreet Stables filly lost little in defeat losing to the very talented Chad Brown sprinter over and off track, has been given plenty of time, and should handle this group if she gets back to her performance two-back in the Victory Ride (G3).

Most horseplayers that are trying to beat Emery will likely look to #3 My Mane Squeeze. The New York-bred has compiled a very strong resume through 12 starts posting wins in the Eight Belles (G2) and most recently the Dogwood (G3) at Churchill Downs, but very well could be up against it from a race shape perspective with not a ton of early zip signed on. The two that interest me more are #2 Miuccia who only lost by a length in a solid edition of the Prioress (G2) and retains Irad Ortiz Jr. and #7 Mink’s Palace who gets a class test here, but has won 2 of her last 3 and should get a favorable stalking voyage for Eddie Kenneally.

Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10 Birkin Girl
Backups: 3 Running Away; 1 Fixin to Bee; 7 Evelyn Louise

Forecast: Like Emery, #3 Running Away is likely to be a popular single in the sequence after missing by a half-length on debut at Saratoga for trainer Wesley Ward. The Gun Runner filly certainly outran her 10-1 odds that day, but did so in typical New York two-turn turf race fashion loafing along on an uncontested lead. Sure, she lost to a talented filly in Virgin Colada, but an easy lead is far less likely to happen in this spot making her 9-5-morning line price tough to swallow.

I like #10 Birkin Girl most. The Hugh Bishop homebred ran a solid third on debut for a barn that rarely has their runners cranked at first asking. Her follow-up start was not as good, but she was cost all chance shortly after the start as the 7-2-public choice. Now trainer Ben Colebrook legs up Tyler Gaffalione for the first time and stretches this Twirling Candy filly out to two turns. I expect a big run.

#1 Fixin to Bee and #7 Evelyn Louise are a pair of gals who have been just okay through two starts, but are conditioned by patient barns. They both have the right to move forward in career start number three at fair offerings.

Good luck on a fun Saturday afternoon card in the blue grass!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:33 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/19/24

October 19, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita 1st Race – Post: 2:30 PT. Degree of confidence: A
Top Selection: 2-Renatus
Backups: none.

Forecast: Renatus will certainly be heavily backed on the tote, so there’s little we can do with her other than use her as a short-priced rolling exotic single. Barring something unforeseen, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride should easily handle this modest state-bred maiden special weight turf miler for juvenile fillies. A closing third with a less than ideal trip in a similar spot in just her second career start, she shows a healthy series of drills since that late August outing at Del Mar and seems sure to produce a forward move today from her comfortable inside draw. We view her as a free bingo space in the various rolling exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita – 8th race - Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: Man O Rose
Backups: 5-Exaulted; 9-Seal Team.

Forecast: Man O Rose is clearly the controlling speed in this year’s edition of the Lure Stakes, and after wiring his outclassed rivals at Los Alamitos last time out at this one mile trip, the son of Stanford tackles a tougher group today while switching back to grass, a surface he can easily handle. In fact, his career top speed figure was earned over the local lawn in an allowance sprint last summer, and there’s strong evidence to suggest that he’s just as good now as then. Top speed rider E. Maldonado stays aboard and knows him well and is certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics from his comfortable two-hole post. He’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line and offers solid value at or near that price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:33 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Early Pick 4 Analysis

October 19, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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The Meadowlands has a 14-race card featuring Breeders Crown Elimination races. My focus will be on the 0.50 Early Pick 4 with a $50,000 guaranteed pool, and a 15% takeout. The top five finishers in each race will qualify to race in next week's Final.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:15 PM EST)

1-Nijinsky (5/2)-Standout Ontario bred is a major player and regular driver Louis Roy can work an efficient trip leaving from the rail. Comes off a big win in an ONSS Final, could down this group and not be over extended.
3-Sweet Beach Life (12-1)-Swinging for a large price with a fast horse who usually draws poorly in big races on smaller ovals. Probably will be overlooked here, but winning this race may matter more to the Travis Alexander pupil than most others. Can roll late so a lively pace could make a winning difference.

Race 7 (8:40 PM EST)

3-Warrawee Michelle (3-1)-The Ake Svanstadt pupil has won 3 of 10 at M1 and that includes capturing the Hambo Oaks Final. Hasn't gotten a smooth steer in the last 2 starts, and this is an opportunity to pose off a nice trip.
8-R Melina (8/5)-The post draw does make this more interesting and have to wonder if the usual plan of getting on the point when the wings fold changes. Todd McCarthy has gate speed to use and should be there at the wire unless at a small price unless the trip is very bumpy.

Race 8 (9:15 PM EST)

4-It's My Show (6-1)-Canadian Pacing Derby winner has raced well at M1 and should offer a square price. The versatile Sweet Lou 4-year-old gives Scott Zeron options with this post draw.
5-Voukefalas (9/2)-The Mike Russo entry can cash the top check with a sharp steer. This feels like an opportunity to leave, land near the top of the stack and post a trip-out win.
8-Bythemissal (6/5)-Draws outside for the 3rd straight time and has had only 5 starts with 1 win this year. A top try makes the Ron Burke champ tough to beat. But could be more interested in a racing well with an efficient trip to qualify.

Race 9 (9:42 PM EST)

3-Private Access (10-1)-This is another who has been camera shy but has ability and should be dialed on high at a price. Lost by a neck in its Hambo Elim here and then drew post 9 in the slop for the Final. Using and could add value to gimmicks as well.
8-Highland Kismet (9/5)-Burned out in the last race at Lex was used hard into a 52.4 opening half. This could be the night to get back on track and it is 1st time Lasix for Karl. But from the outside Bob McClure may not look to provide a less taxing journey and will be a small price.

$1.00 Early Pick 4

1,3/3,8/4,5,8/3,8
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:34 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #7

#11 Love Me Tender	Willing to take a swing here with a lightly raced runner who probably still has some room to come forward with just two starts under his belt. Not a ton of serious pace lined up here, and he might get the perfect trip pressing the Indiana-bred pace.
#5 Book'em Danno	He's probably quick enough to stay in touch early on, but it's his reliable finishing form over the last several races that makes him the one to beat today. Think those last few might be a slight cut above most of these.
#10 Locked	He's a Grade I winner over the local footing and comes back after chasing Fierceness in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Lots of big names on his page, and he's an obvious one to keep in the mix on talent and ceiling.
Race Summary	Love Me Tender should be a big price with a couple Colonial races to his name, but I think he's going to get the perfect kind of trip to potentially find himself inheriting the lead after prompting #6 Goodlookinjustice early on.

Keeneland - Race #9

#2 Miuccia	Tactical speed should be in a nice spot throughout, and the one who finished just in front of her last out was back to score here a couple weeks ago. In the mix.
#5 Emery	She was second best in the Test last out, and her baseline form makes her tough again today if she can hold that kind of effort again here. The one to beat...but I don't think she has to win this.
#8 Uno Le	She's in for a big test today and needs a big move forward to land even a share, but she still has some upside after just two races and should use her versatile pace to find a good spot right near the top.
Race Summary	Miuccia has enough pace to find a spot from the draw near the fence, and her lack of class compared to Emery might keep the price fair. #3 My Mane Squeeze also in the hopper.

Keeneland - Race #10

#7 Evelyn Louise	Maybe one of the fresh faces will surprise me, but I'm not convinced there is a whole lot of depth in this one for a race at this local level. Wonder if her one-paced kind of Kentucky Downs run might translate well around two turns here.
#3 Running Away	She's obviously got a huge claim on this one after showing sharp pace and almost staying in the debut at Saratoga, and she's obviously a handful here with even a small move forward.
#2 Judith	Pedigree is there for her to thrive around a mile, and this team is capable of landing a race like this over the local lawn. Get a look at her on the tote and track.
Race Summary	Evelyn Louise might be the right one at a midrange price in hopes of beating the likely chalk Running Away. 'Louise may still be heading in the right direction for a team that can take their time to develop them.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:34 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#11 COLLECTIVE CHOICE (6-1)	All angles suggest he will show up in his second start on the lawn.
#2 GONNA PICK DOMENIC (12-1)	Marked improvement with blinkers on, leads as far as he goes.
#8 IBRAHIMOVIC (2-1)	Chased the winning fave and held fourth in tougher field at Kentucky Downs.
Race Summary	Not much turf form in this crowded maiden claimer, so take a shot with COLLECTIVE CHOICE, who took some play in his MSW debut at Kentucky Downs but raced far back throughout after a slow start. Trainer Saffie Joseph excels with class droppers, route-to-sprint runners and horses wearing blinkers for the first time. He and apprentice jockey Micah Husbands are 5-for-10 as a team in the last month. Bet to win and place and play a 2-8-11 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#1 SIMSARA (8-1)	Raced evenly as the favorite in her first try on the all-weather track.
#3 RUBY TIGER (5-2)	Clear lead, held on for minor awards in last pair, shorter distance helps.
#7 BUCCINI (10-1)	Showed pulse in first two starts, changes riders, can rally for a share.
Race Summary	SIMSARA took the class plunge to this level and chased runner-up RUBY TIGER before a 22-1 longshot passed by for the win at 5-1/2F. She draws the rail and can turn the tables at a much better price. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#8 TAKE YOUR POINT (9-2)	Wide run to break maiden at this distance, taken to repeat.
#3 MUSICAL JOURNEY (5-2)	Showed a passing gear and got up to finish second off a wide trip.
#7 TIZ ERIN (7-2)	Changed tactics, held on in five-horse field, stands 6/1-1-2 on this surface.
Race Summary	TAKE YOUR POINT, 3-wide most of the way, got the jump in a race dominated by closers and became the first winner in this field to conquer the 1 mile and 70 yards distance. She raced closer to the pace in a five-horse field two back but tired as the favorite. Bet to win and place and play 8-3 and 8-7 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belmont at the Big A
PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race 5	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 5 &6, Pick 3 ($1) (5-7) Mandatory Pay Pick 5 (.50) (5-9)
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $92,000 • Post: 2:20P
(UP TO $16,008 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (ALLOWANCE HORSES PREFERRED)(1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. WHOCOULDASKFORMO is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CINDERELLA'S CAUSE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BON ADIEU: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. WHOCOULDASK FORMO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAMERA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FADE TO GREY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) i s at least 50.
8	CINDERELLA'S CAUSE	9/2	6/1
6	BON ADIEU	20/1	7/1
2	WHOCOULDASKFORMO	5/2	7/1
1	CAMERA	3/1	7/1
5	FADE TO GREY	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	FADE TO GREY	5	9/2	Front-runner	83	84	90.3	76.9	69.4
6	BON ADIEU	6	20/1	Front-runner	93	82	86.0	79.8	72.3
1	CAMERA	1	3/1	Stalker	89	92	77.6	80.8	71.3
8	CINDERELLA'S CAUSE	8	9/2	Stalker	90	93	76.6	89.6	84.1
4	MY SHEA D LADY	4	8/1	Stalker	86	85	64.9	81.2	68.2
9	JUST MUSIC	9	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	80	68.6	77.2	63.7
2	WHOCOULDASKFORMO	2	5/2	Trailer	89	88	66.2	82.8	72.8
7	TONED UP	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	83	66.8	79.0	71.0
3	WHISTLER'S STYLE	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	79	47.0	72.8	58.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town
PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 5	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 5-6) Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $10,800 • Post: 9:02P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CHARITABLE WINDSOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BUDDY BUDDY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. CHARITABLE WINDSOR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. STROLLINGINTHEWIND: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the dista nce/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TAPINTOYOURBEER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
9	BUDDY BUDDY	8/1	9/2
1	CHARITABLE WINDSOR	10/1	5/1
3	STROLLINGINTHEWIND	12/1	7/1
6	TAPINTOYOURBEER	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CHARITABLE WINDSOR	1	10/1	Front-runner	73	65	78.8	62.6	51.6
8	VALHALLA'S PALACE	8	8/5	Stalker	71	70	54.6	61.0	50.5
9	BUDDY BUDDY	9	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	86	51.8	66.8	61.3
6	TAPINTOYOURBEER	6	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	77	54.3	59.6	53.1
3	STROLLINGINTHEWIND	3	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	78	81	36.2	71.6	65.6
2	EISELE	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	62	59.0	56.0	42.0
5	PINNACLE REEF	5	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	68	68	57.8	60.0	47.5
7	MIKE THE BOMB	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	72	52.4	41.8	31.3
4	PHOTO HOP	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	66	27.5	54.0	42.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 95

SA - R6 - FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, IF FOR $45,000, ALLOWED 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 QUALITY WINS 7/2
# 10 PROSPER 5/2
# 1 CARIBBEAN KING 8/1

QUALITY WINS looks to be a competitive contender. Boasts reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group of horses. Had one of the top Speed Figures of this field in his last contest. Sound average Speed Figures in turf sprint races make this equine a solid contender. PROSPER - He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Has run soundly when racing a turf sprint race. CARIBBEAN KING - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Miller have shown strong results as of late. Earned a respectable speed figure last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Keeneland - Race #5 - Post: 3:08pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $77,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#10 ARROGANCY (ML=2/1)
#9 UNCLE WILLIAM (ML=7/2)

ARROGANCY - Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished 2nd easily ahead of the third-place horse in his last race. When a thoroughbred finishes in the money as often as this gelding does, you will usually want to use him in your exotic wagers. The recent bullet 36.0 work should put this gelding on track for today's effort. UNCLE WILLIAM - Really figure this horse is going to be really close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SHORTSTOP (ML=4/1), #1 BLUE LINE (ML=8/1),

SHORTSTOP - Should have at least hit the board in the last two months in a short distance race to be worth the risk at modest odds in a sprint. BLUE LINE - Doubtful for this participant to make an impact with no recent good showings in a short distance event. Not likely that the speed rating he registered on Sep 22nd will be good enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 ARROGANCY is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [9,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 FOR HORSES THAT HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 GET THROUGH 5/1
# 2 GO OTTO GO 2/1
# 4 REDFIELD 3/1

GET THROUGH has a very strong shot to take this race. Has very strong Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet here. Earned a decent speed figure last time out. The average class fig alone makes this entrant a solid choice. GO OTTO GO - Should come out very solid - I have liked the way this colt has moved rapidly to the front end recently. This animal is highly ranked this group of animals in earnings per start at the distance/surface. REDFIELD - Handler has solid win rate (21 percent) at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2024, 06:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Century Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#1 COUNTY WINDS (ML=8/1)
#8 OOPS (GB) (ML=5/1)
#6 MY KIND OF NITE (ML=3/1)

COUNTY WINDS - Has happened upon a good spot today. OOPS (GB) - This filly is tried right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. MY KIND OF NITE - A horse coming back this soon after a nice race is a good signal. This mount could be tough today, especially since Nelson rode last time around the track and now should be plenty familiar with this one. Kingston gets a break on this mount carrying 5 pounds less than last out. Its possible this could make the difference right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 WORKIN FOR THE MAN (ML=2/1), #4 SIRACHA (ML=7/2),

WORKIN FOR THE MAN - If he goes off at the morning line odds of 2/1, I'll have to pass. SIRACHA - This less than sharp equine has been a bummer for the bettors as the favorite time and time again.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 COUNTY WINDS to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**ConleyPicks** · 10-19-2024, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Post: 8:07 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$9500 - N/W OF 6

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 SOUTHWIND DOMINO 5/2
# 4 MARVIN HAGLER 9/5
# 2 PRINCE ARCHIE 6/1

Feel pretty confident putting some profits down on SOUTHWIND DOMINO. Can't ignore based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been fantastic (83 avg) in recent times. This harness racer has shown us some prior ability, just look at the 86 average class number. Should play well in this event. Could dominate this field of starters, just look at the speed figure - 76 - from his most recent performance. MARVIN HAGLER - House has been real tough the last 30 days, winning at a great 19 percent. Looks like a strong pick in this grouping and his positive winning percentage says he has the raw talent to take the whole enchilada in this contest. PRINCE ARCHIE - The 78 average class rating may give this gelding a distinct edge in the group of animals. Should be in the hunt again in this one, looking to improve that already high lifetime winning percent.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-19-2024, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
4	4	VIRGIN HONOR	8/5	Hennessey, Wally - 25	494.94
1	1	ALL ATTITUDE	5/2	Devaux, Jim - 13	473.84
2	2	ALL HANDS ON DECK	8/1	Long, Chris - 10	462.38
5	5	BEACH PARTY	9/2	Beckwith, Brett - 23	460.12
6	6	SOME HAPPY PACER	6/1	Athearn, Matthew - 13	430.32
3	3	YAMAKA	12/1	Dobson, Billy - 16	422.28

**ConleyPicks** · 10-19-2024, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 10:04 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 56 - Purse:$27100 - ABSS STARDUST TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES SECOND DIVISION

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 3 CUSTARD DOLCE 3/2
# 2 MADEMECHANGEMYMIND 3/1
# 7 HOT SHOT SHARK 6/1

Look no further than CUSTARD DOLCE as the wager in this race. Some trainers just fit better with certain horses. That seems to be the case right here with Gray. A really good bet. She's doing work in good form, recording very promising TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent selection. Could dominate this grouping, just look at the TrackMaster SR - 63 - from her last effort. MADEMECHANGEMYMIND - Take a look at this standardbred's avg speed rating of 60 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very good bet. This filly has been racing against some of the most competitive horses in this pack recently. HOT SHOT SHARK - A great class horse shouldn't be be glossed over. With an average class figure of 59 all signs say it's go time. Could beat this group of animals, just look at the speed rating - 56 - from her most recent event.