10-26-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Wednesday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Connecticut +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Pick Wed (CFB)Pittsburgh-UConn+10 Pittsburgh

Wed (MLB)Cardinals-Rangers-113 Rangers

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing for 10/26

]Play of the Day: Connecticut + 10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Connecticut at Pittsburgh: What Bettors Need to Know

Connecticut Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers (-10.5, 41.5)

THE STORY: Last season when Connecticut played Pittsburgh the teams had BCS aspirations. This year as the Panthers host the Huskies in a mid-week tilt, they're playing for .500. Both are 3-4 overall and 1-1 in the Big East, sharing victories over South Florida. However, no Big East team appears bulletproof – just ask West Virginia – so the winner here moves right back into league title contention.

LINE MOVES: Pittsburgh opened -10 and the spread has moved to 10.5. The total opened at 41.5 and climbed to 42.5 before coming back down to 41.

WEATHER: Rain is in the forecast for Heinz Field. There is a 65 percent chance of rain with a 100 percent chance in the second half. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 50s.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (3-4, 1-1 Big East, 2-5 ATS): The Huskies rebounded well to defeat the Bulls, 16-10, on Oct. 15, after being blitzed for 81 points in back-to-back losses to Western Michigan and West Virginia. As with UConn's other victories, defense was key, forcing four turnovers and stopping South Florida on fourth down late and in Huskies' territory. Their lone touchdown came from the defense, when cornerback Byron Jones returned a fumble for a score. Lyle McCombs continued his impressive freshman campaign, rushing for 130 yards against South Florida to bolster his total to 705 yards to go with four touchdowns.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (3-4, 1-1 Big East, 2-5 ATS): The Panthers' offense is a mess. Ray Graham is the nation's fifth-leading rusher (939 yards, nine TDs), but he hasn’t been able to make up for the team’s quarterback struggles. Junior Tino Sunseri and freshman Trey Anderson went a pitiful 9-for-29 for 40 yards in Pitt's 26-14 home loss to Utah on Oct. 15, in which the Panthers blew a 14-3 lead. They've produced just two offensive touchdowns in the last nine quarters (both by Graham).

EXTRA POINTS

1. UConn's biggest weapon could be senior kicker Dave Teggart, who's 6-for-7 on field goals the past two games and has four multiple field goal games this year.

2. Another poor Sunseri outing could have Pitt fans chanting for Anderson. Sunseri has seven picks against just five touchdown passes and has been sacked 32 times after Utah dropped him five times.

3. Graham fumbled a kickoff that set up UConn's final score in the Huskies' 30-28 triumph over Pittsburgh last season in East Hartford. UConn leads the series, 4-3.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.
* Panthers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 conference games.

PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 20, Connecticut 16 – A conservative Panthers' ground game and confident Huskies' squad should make for a tight, low-scoring affair.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Wednesday's Best NCAA CFB Bet

Connecticut Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers (-10.5, 41.5)

The Huskies are just 3-4 this year, but amazingly, they actually have a legitimate shot of a return trip to the BCS this year if they can find a way to pull off the upset in this game. The truth of the matter is that 5-2 in conference play will certainly be good enough for someone to win this conference, and catching fire is always a possibility. UConn was able to pull off the upset of the South Florida Bulls last week because of its stout defense, and that might be just what the doctor ordered with five very potentially winnable games on tap from here on out. This defense, in spite of the fact that it has had games in which it has truly struggled, is allowing just 89.0 yards per game on the ground, which is great news against a Pittsburgh offense that will run the ball, run the ball, and run it some more. The offense though, is quite ugly at just 320.3 yards per game for Connecticut, and that probably won’t cut it, even in this defensive minded conference.

There’s definitely some good news and some bad news for the Panthers. The good news is that the last time we saw them, they were beating the snot out of the South Florida Bulls on national television. The bad news is that they really haven’t played a good game, save for that one all season long. A 19 point win over Buffalo and a six point escape from Maine weren’t all that impressive, nor was a collapse at the Iowa Hawkeyes the very next week in which the hosts scored the final four touchdowns of the game in the second half. Losing at home to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish was respectable, but turning around after the USF win and getting blown away by double digits as favorites by both the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Utah Utes was dull… at best… Now, QB Tino Sunseri and RB Ray Graham have to get back on the horse in a big way. These two are the leaders of an offense that is averaging just 342.1 yards per game against a schedule that, as you can see, isn’t exactly chock full of behemoths.

Connecticut Huskies @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: We hate both of these teams. The Panthers are probably the better team on paper, but they’re not even remotely playing like it. That being said, UConn has no excuse not to stick within double digits in this game, and we wouldn’t even be all that surprised if it won the game outright.

PICK: Connecticut +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Rangers at Cardinals - Game 6: What Bettors Need to Know

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 7.5)
Texas Leads Series 3-2

THE STORY: The Texas Rangers go after their first World Series title Wednesday in Game 6 against the host St. Louis Cardinals. Texas recorded a 4-2 victory on Monday with postseason hero Mike Napoli smacking the go-ahead two-run double to take a 3-2 lead in the series. Napoli has nine RBIs in 13 at-bats in the series and is only the second player in World Series history with four multi-RBI games. The other is Mickey Mantle for the 1960 New York Yankees. Game 7, if necessary, is scheduled for Thursday in St. Louis.

WEATHER: The forecast in St. Louis is calling for a 94 percent chance of showers and winds, blowing NNW from the third base line to first base line, at speeds of up to 11 mph. Those winds will change to blowing north, in from center towards home plate.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers RH Colby Lewis (0-0, 1.35 ERA) vs. Cardinals LH Jaime Garcia (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Lewis is 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA in three postseason starts. He gave up just one run and four hits in 6 2/3 innings while taking a no-decision in Game 2. Nick Punto had two of the hits.

Garcia pitched seven shutout innings of three-hit ball in Game 2 but didn’t get the win due to Jason Motte’s ninth-inning implosion. He struck out seven and walked one. Garcia is 0-2 with a 3.97 ERA in four postseason starts.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS: St. Louis left 12 runners on base in Game 5. Matt Holliday reached base three times on a single and two walks but left five runners on base the two times he was retired. Albert Pujols was walked intentionally three times and went 0-for-2. Yadier Molina had three hits and drove in his fifth run of the series. Allen Craig was caught stealing twice to become the first player thrown out multiple times in a World Series game since the Yankees’ Billy Martin in 1955.

ABOUT THE RANGERS: Napoli has driven in nearly half of Texas’ 19 runs in the series. Mitch Moreland and Adrian Beltre hit solo homers for the Rangers’ other runs. Beltre is batting .381 in the series while Moreland is batting just .111 in 27 postseason at-bats. Michael Young is hitting .211 in the series with three of his four hits going for extra bases. Josh Hamilton is just 3-for-19 in the series and homerless in 60 postseason at-bats. Neftali Feliz has two saves in the World Series and six in the postseason.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Rangers are 7-1 in their last eight games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five World Series home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Rangers last eight World Series games.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last seven World Series home games.

UMP TRENDS - Gary Cederstrom:

* Under is 7-1 in Cederstroms last eight interleague games behind home plate.
* Under is 14-3-1 in Cederstroms last 18 games behind home plate.
* Rangers are 20-6 in their last 26 games with Cederstrom behind home plate.
* Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games with Cederstrom behind home plate.

FINAL PITCH: St. Louis scored 16 runs in Game 3 of the World Series but has only tallied six in the other four games.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Wednesday's Best MLB Bet

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 7.5)

Everything seemed to be rolling in the right direction for the St. Louis Cardinals in Monday’s Game 5 until some apparent miscommunication derailed them in a 4-2 loss, putting their backs against the wall down 3-2 in the series.

First, Allen Craig tried to steal second base in the seventh inning for some reason with Albert Pujols at the plate and was predictably thrown out. The Cardinals couldn’t capitalize. Then manager Tony LaRussa said there were more communication issues as he tried to get his relievers ready in the bullpen.

In short, it wasn’t exactly St. Louis Cardinals baseball. You don’t get on this kind of run by making sloppy mistakes and you have to think the Cardinals will bounce back.

Jaime Garcia has been dominant in front of his hometown crowd at Busch Stadium, working on a 1.93 ERA. Of course, he’ll have his hands full again with a Texas lineup led by the red-hot Mike Napoli that has already seen him once this series. Still, Garcia’s confident.

"Obviously, you learn things from hitters, and I've been watching them the last couple games in Texas, too," Garcia said. "But it all comes down to going out there and basically being able to execute what you want to. It doesn't matter which team, which lineup, what part of the season it is. It's just going out there and worrying about the little things that you can control."

The weather is supposed to be cold, windy and wet again Wednesday and both Garcia and Colby Lewis have been dealing. We’re leaning toward the Cards but will take a shot at the under right now.

PICK: Under

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Avs Try To Stay Perfect On The Road In Calgary
By Sergei J. Feldman


Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames (-125, 5.5)
AVALANCHE (6-2-0) at FLAMES (2-4-1)

TV: ALTITUDE (HD), SNET-Calgary (HD)

SEASON SERIES: This is the first of six get-togethers between the Northwest Division opponents. Last season, the Flames won five games in a row against the Avalanche after dropping Game 1 of their six-game series.

BIG STORY: The Avalanche has been one of the NHL's biggest surprises through the early going, while the Flames are still trying to find their stride. The Avs come to Scotiabank Saddledome sitting atop the Northwest Division with the Flames at the bottom.

TEAM SCOPE:

AVALANCHE: The Avs are the NHL's road warriors. They've lost both of their home games but are a perfect 6-0-0 on the road, including a 5-4 shootout win in Chicago on Saturday, atoning for a 3-1 home loss to the Hawks two nights earlier. Two of the goals on Saturday came off the stick of rookie Gabriel Landeskog, who has done nothing but impress in his first season.

The Avs have enjoyed their time away from Denver so far.

"It's always nice to be on the road with the boys," defenseman Shane O'Brien said. "We've got a good group of guys in here. Everyone gets along with everyone. They have fun coming to the rink. Right now, we're road warriors, so we're going to try to continue that."

FLAMES: While Colorado plays its seventh road game against just two at home, Calgary is in the midst of a six-game homestand -- but the Flames aren't doing a good enough job of turning those home games into points. After starting with a 2-1 win over Edmonton, the Flames lost 3-2 in overtime to the Rangers and 2-0 to Nashville on Saturday.

"It's frustrating when you lose games where you feel that you should have won," defenseman Mark Giordano said. "I feel like we're going in the right direction. The last couple of games have been pretty solid for our team. I think the next step is getting those wins."

WHO'S HOT: For the Avs, young center Ryan O'Reilly has delivered of late to the tune of six points in his past five games. .. The Flames have relied on the point-per-game contributions from Alex Tanguay, who has amassed five points in his past five outings, including two multi-point nights.

INJURY REPORT: Center Mikael Backlund is out for the Flames until around mid-November with a finger injury, while the Avs will be without the services of Peter Mueller, who is day-to-day with a head injury, Brandon Yip (broken forearm) and Mark Oliver (head).

STAT PACK: Calgary has just one point in its last two games despite outshooting the opposition 68-45. The Flames allowed just 14 shots in the loss to Nashville on Saturday.

PUCK DROP: One player who hasn't been producing for Colorado is center Matt Duchene, the third player taken in the 2009 Entry Draft. He's had his ice time cut -- he got just 11:35 against the Hawks on Saturday -- and is skating with new wings, Joakim Lindstrom and Chuck Kobasew.

"I'm just focusing on the right things now," said Duchene, who has just one goal in eight games. "It's going to come. I have to start doing the little things. I focus sometimes on bigger things rather than focusing on the process. If I do that, I'll be fine."

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Wednesday's Best NHL Bets

Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens (+110, 5.5)

With the Montreal Canadiens off to their worst start in 70 years, the last thing they needed was more bad news.

Turns out their leading scorer, Max Pacioretty, is going to be on the shelf for a while. A number of different news outlets are reporting that he has a ligament problem in his wrist, but the team has yet to confirm that. Pacioretty has two goals and four assists in eight games this season and the team is starting to get desperate.

"That was one of the things I spoke to the team about this morning, where we are right now and what we need to do to make the playoffs," coach Jacques Martin told reporters Tuesday. "I was trying to bring some urgency. In reality, we think we'll need 96 points to make the playoffs, which was our total last year. I wanted to be sure they see what it looks like. So we're conscious of it, and we need to act in order to correct this."

Meanwhile, the Flyers are facing their first adversity of the year after jumping out to a 5-2-1 record. Jaromir Jagr scored a pair of goals and assisted on another to help the Flyers to a 4-2 win over Toronto Monday, but captain Chris Pronger suffered an eye injury and will miss at least two or three weeks.

Even without Pronger, the Flyers are way deeper than Montreal.

PICK: Philadelphia


Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames (-125, 5.5)

Life on the road often has a way of bringing a young team together. So far that’s exactly what’s happening with the Colorado Avalanche.

Colorado gave up a 3-1 lead at Chicago Saturday, but Gabriel Landeskong sent the game to overtime with a goal with 1:48 left in regulation. The Avalanche ended up earning their sixth straight win in the shootout.

“It’s always nice to be on the road with the boys,” defenseman Shane O’Brien told reporters. “We’ve got a good group of guys in here. Everyone gets along with everyone. They have fun coming to the rink. Right now, we’re road warriors, so we’re going to try to continue that.”

The Flames have just six goals in their last four games and could have a tough time containing Colorado’s speedy attack. Nice value on the underdog here.

PICK: Colorado

[Mr. IWS]

Wednesday’s Betting Tips: Stingy Ump To Work Rangers-Cards

WEATHER TO WATCH

Meteorologists expect a wet and chilly Game 6 of the World Series Wednesday night. As of Thursday evening the forecast predicted a 60 percent chance of rain with temperatures around 50 degrees with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field toward first base.

WHO'S HOT

NCAAF: Connecticut is riding a 9-0 run against the spread against teams with a losing record.

MLB: St. Louis is 13-3 in its last 16 games following a loss.

NHL: The over is 4-0 in Philadelphia’s last four games.

WHO'S NOT

NCAAF: Pitt is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games as a favorite.

MLB: Texas is 1-4 in its last five games following a win.

NHL: Calgary is 0-5 in its last five meetings with Colorado.

KEY STAT

14-3-1 – The under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 games that Gary Cederstrom has worked behind home plate. Cederstrom is expected to be calling balls and strikes for Wednesday’s Game 6 of the World Series.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

Chris Pronger, Philadelphia Flyers – The Flyers’ captain is expected to be sidelined for at least two weeks after taking a stick to the right eye during Monday's 4-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Pronger was hit as Toronto's Mikhail Grabovski followed through on his shot during the first period. The 37-year-old defenseman, who does not wear a shield, immediately clutched at his face and skated to the bench before heading to the locker room.

GAME OF THE DAY

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-120, 7.5)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I know fans are upset, and they should be -- I'm upset, I go home my wife is upset, my mom is upset and my brother is giving me input on who the quarterback should be. But they should be upset because the standard and expectations of Pitt football is to win championships, and we haven't played at that level.” – Pitt coach Todd Graham ahead of Wednesday’s home game against Connecticut. Pitt is set as a 10-point favorite.

TIPS AND NOTES

Army quarterback Trent Steelman will miss Saturday's game against Fordham with a high ankle sprain, snapping a streak of 32 consecutive starts. Steelman suffered the injury last week against Vanderbilt, with coach Rich Ellerson declaring that the quarterback is week-to-week. The junior, who has rushed for 576 yards and 11 scores, had started every game of his college career.

Pitt’s best offensive lineman, senior Lucas Nix, is a game-time decision for Wednesday night’s big game against Connecticut. The Panthers are expected to field their fifth different offensive line combination in their last six games due to multiple injuries.

Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs questioned the team's offensive game plan following Monday night's 12-7 road loss to Jacksonville. The Ravens did not have a first down until deep into the third quarter and did not score until 2:02 remained in the game. They managed 11 first downs and 146 total yards. "I don't really know what the game plan was," Suggs told reporters. While Joe Flacco threw 38 passes - and averaged less than four yards per attempt - running back Ray Rice had just eight carries and receiver Anquan Boldin had four catches. Baltimore is set as a big 13-point favorite at home to Arizona.

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NHL Picks

Philadelphia at Montreal

The Flyers look to build on their 8-2 record in their last 10 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Philadelphia is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 26 Time Posted 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.159; Montreal 10.313 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over

Game 3-4: Colorado at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.264; Calgary 11.560 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-120); Under

Game 5-6: St. Louis at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.884; Vancouver 12.040 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-155); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-155); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Texas at St. Louis

The Rangers look to close out the series and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games versus a left-handed starter. Texas is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 26 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (10/25)

Game 961-962: Texas at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 16.134; St. Louis (Garcia) 15.609 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-100); Over

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Connecticut at Pittsburgh

The Panthers look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Pittsburgh is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 17. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10).

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 26 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 103-104: Connecticut at Pittsburgh (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 82.137; Pittsburgh 98.981 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 17; 44 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 41 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10); Over

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 7.5 runs bet. St.Louis and Texas