Wednesday 10/23/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #5

#3 Impractical Diva	Think there is a little price appeal as this one gets back over to the grass, as she ran OK on the turf at Ellis in the debut run and can bounce back today. Spying trip keeps her in a good spot?
#6 One Front War	Guessing we'll see something a little bit better from this one today, as she's bred to thrive at this two-turn kind of trip and flashed enough pace in the debut try to think she'll be up on the splits here.
#10 Birdwatching	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here while going second off the layoff with a couple of sharp efforts to her name. That said, she came up short at odds on last time out and will take cash again today. Obvious threat.
Race Summary	Impractical Diva should be an OK price while bringing some upside at this turf trip, and there's nothing wrong with getting Rosario up for this one.

Keeneland - Race #7

#10 Mo Stash	He can bounce back after a modest Kentucky Downs run, as he has always done good work locally and should appreciate the significant class relief with nobody like Cogburn lined up today.
#1 Arrest Me Red	He's one of a few who have a case in here, but his recent baseline is probably good enough to keep him in the mix. Let's see what kind of trip he works out from the fence.
#4 Front Run The Fed	Never easy to know when this guy is going to show up with one of his competitive runs, but he has been in the frame with some pretty tough customers on his better days. Wouldn't want him to knock me out of the multis at a huge price.
Race Summary	Mo Stash might offer a playable price while getting some class relief, and he has reliable form over the local course. Consider #7 Outadore and #6 Mischievous Rogue.

Keeneland - Race #8

#4 Touchy	He's the one to beat after a couple stakes tries to open his career, and I think that either of his first two starts would likely be good enough to land it. Price won't be much, but I think he should handle these.
#10 Original Sin	He should be in the mix today for a top team, and she has been working regularly heading into this one. Probably ready to go.
#12 Amor Patriae	Give him a look on the track and tote ahead of this -- I'll start my work here for a team that does sneaky good work when sending these types out sometimes. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Touchy should graduate today after a couple solid tries in New York that came against tougher stakes crews. Seems like a reasonable lean.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #2

#2 BLAME CATALAYA (7-2)	Profitable claim figures to add to $126k bankroll at best distance.
#4 LA RUNA (8-1)	Longshot can awaken on barn switch with three easy wins in Florida on resume.
#6 MELODIOUS SINGER (5-2)	Lightly raced and heavily bet 6yo romped in this spot two back.
Race Summary	BLAME CATALAYA, an allowance winner mid-July, is eligible for this spot by five days. She romped the last time she ran for a $7,500 claiming price, posted back-to-back $50,000 seasons and gets second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place and play a 2,4/2,4,6/ALL trifecta.

Penn National - Race #3

#7 BERMONDSEY (8-1)	Live longshot with plenty of pace to rally into, use in all gimmick wagers.
#10 OVER AND THUNDER (3-1)	Tough post but he’s 3-8 at one mile while rest of field is 3-68.
#2 HENRYTHETHIRD (8-1)	Parx invader chased solid fractions while wide, moves outside in.
Race Summary	BERMONDSEY could turn a quick profit off the re-claim. He’s 21/4-3-4 at Penn National and should work out a perfect stalking trip in a speed-laden field. The price is right for a win and place bet and a 2-7-10 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #5

#6 STORMY SPELL (4-1)	Perfect fit on the class drop, has seven wins over the track.
#1 WICKED STREET (5-2)	Has speed and the rail, walked off in turf try, one to beat on best.
#2 ILLUSION OF HOPE (8-1)	One start since May claim but hit board in 16 of 31 starts.
Race Summary	With some recent form questions surrounding morning-line favorites WICKED STREET and SHINELIKEADIAMOND, take the safe way out with class-dropping STORMY SPELL, who won back-to-back bottom-level sprints in the winter and projects an ideal trip. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-6 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 3	$2 Daily Double (Races 3-4) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $8,700 • Post: 7:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 23, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 23 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DISCRETIONARY DAY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DISCRETIONARY DAY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	DISCRETIONARY DAY	6/5	9/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DISCRETIONARY DAY	4	6/5	Front-runner	89	77	85.8	78.0	76.0
2	MAS CHIKILIN	2	4/1	Stalker	78	76	63.9	68.7	62.2
1	AMERICAN NIGHTMARE	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	77	75	65.6	64.4	54.9
3	DISTORTED LIMITS	3	6/1	Trailer	81	72	53.0	69.4	63.4
6	ROSAS WAY	6	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	75	51.0	68.6	60.6
5	CUMBER	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	74	51.2	63.2	54.2

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 8	Daily Double / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
SO $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 3:53P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 HORSES IN FOR THE CLAIMING PRICE ALLOWED 4 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DAZZY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DAZZY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the hi ghest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	DAZZY	4/1	5/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SECRET LIFE	1	20/1	Front-runner	56	57	65.3	50.0	35.5
4	REASSESS	4	8/1	Front-runner	82	72	61.2	46.7	37.2
8	DAZZY	8	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	80	78	75.0	75.6	72.1
2	CHIT CHAT CHUB	2	6/1	Stalker	59	56	60.2	52.2	38.7
10	MOONLIT MAGIC	10	6/1	Stalker	60	58	48.8	52.4	35.4
7	FOR SALE	7	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	72	64	64.0	64.6	53.1
6	FROSTED DIAMOND	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	72	46.0	68.2	60.2
3	TEMPEST RISING	3	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	68	41.4	67.6	59.6
9	SNOW LAKE	9	9/2	Trailer	70	72	47.8	58.4	47.9
5	ROYAL PARTY	5	15/1	Trailer	76	57	9.4	57.0	44.0

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 8:11pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#1 WICKED STREET (ML=5/2)
#7 PHANCY PHILLY (ML=6/1)


WICKED STREET - Don't look any further. This horse has my dough. Way too much speed. Nice return on investment for this jockey and trainer tandem. Torres is reunited today with this horse after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past. Beattie drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more information to believe this horse will be one to beat at this level. PHANCY PHILLY - The morning line odds on this mare are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Beattie. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Ran last time around the track against a better field at Penn National. The move to a lower class level should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SHINELIKEADIAMOND (ML=3/1), #6 STORMY SPELL (ML=4/1), #4 LONDON LADY (ML=6/1),

SHINELIKEADIAMOND - This mare hasn't had any in the money efforts in short distance races in the last two months. STORMY SPELL - This mare hasn't been showing me anything in the last two efforts. Today's event is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint event in the last two months. Not the best of signals. LONDON LADY - You always believe this animal has a shot to be the victor, but she falls short often. Garnered a quite unimpressive fig last out in a $5,000 Claiming race on Oct 5th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 WICKED STREET to win if you can get odds of 6/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $44000 Class Rating: 95

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 23 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 GUITAR DOCTOR 3/1
# 4 ASTROLOGYSPROTEGE 8/1
# 6 DREWMAZING 8/1

My choice for this event is GUITAR DOCTOR. Quite good choice to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Will most likely come out very solid - I have liked the way this horse has moved quickly to the lead recently. Ran a strong last race. ASTROLOGYSPROTEGE - Has longshot possibilities and could win at boxcar odds. Ran a strong last race. DREWMAZING - Could beat this group given the 85 Equibase speed fig garnered in his last outing. He has decent class ratings, averaging 91, and has to be given consideration in this race.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Keeneland - Race #2 - Post: 1:32pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $53,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#4 CITIZEN JUDY (ML=6/1)
#7 ARDITAMENTE (ML=15/1)


CITIZEN JUDY - This racer could be tough this time, especially since Morales rode last time around the track and now should be plenty familiar with this one. This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's contest is a shorter trip and should increase her likelihood of winning. Look for this filly to show better in today's race. Last clash at Churchill Downs finishing fifth on a sloppy track is no indication of her true talent. The most recent speed figure of 61 is the highest last race speed rating in the field. This filly is utmost in earnings per race. Take a good look at this horse in the post parade. ARDITAMENTE - You always have to be on the lookout for money making jockey/conditioner combos; we have one right here. First-timer has been working over this very track. I think that's a big plus in her favor. This one's dam (Thunder and Honey) has a wonderful win percent (50 percent) with first timers, so I expect a lot out of this mount.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GOLDEN IRISH (ML=7/2), #11 BULLET BABY (ML=4/1), #1 SHE'S SINGLE AGAIN (ML=9/2),

GOLDEN IRISH - Doesn't look to be worth 7/2 this time around. Pass on her this time. BULLET BABY - If she goes off anywhere near the morning line odds of 4/1, I'll have to pass. SHE'S SINGLE AGAIN - The seventh place finish in the last event was not the best.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 CITIZEN JUDY is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 7 with [2,10,15] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 7 with [2,8,10,12,15] with [2,8,10,12,15] Total Cost: $20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 64

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 23, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 DIVA BANKER 5/2
# 6 LEFT LEANING LUCY 7/2
# 1 WABAUNSEE 6/1

DIVA BANKER is my choice. Is tough not to consider based on speed figures which have been solid - 64 avg - of late. Will make a strong outing versus this field. Has to be given a shot for this event if only for the strong Equibase Speed Fig put up in the last contest. LEFT LEANING LUCY - Barrow has her trained solidly to break quickly out of the starting gate. Garnered a solid Equibase speed fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. WABAUNSEE - Has posted sound speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past.