Thursday 10/24/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/25/24

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October 24, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
Friday Pick-6 Analysis/Wagering Strategies (races 4-9)


Fourth Race – Post: 2:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Main Ticket: 6-A Toast to Lanie; 7-Uffda
Backups: 1-Shop Till You Drop.

Forecast: A Toast for Lanie flashed sharp speed to establish the pace, stayed on nicely through the lane but was simply second best in a similar affair at Del Mar in August. Freshened and with a steady, healthy work tab to tick her over nicely for this starter optional sprint for fillies the mares, the J. Mullins-trained daughter of Stay Thirsty improved her Beyer figure by 13 points off her maiden claiming debut win, and with another forward move today should be capable of handling this assignment. Uffda shows many positive factors in her chart. She lands the cozy outside post, exits a couple of tougher allowance races, shortens to a sprint, and returns to dirt, the surface she graduated over three runs back at Los Alamitos. Also, she’s highly competitive on numbers compared with our pick and is likely to offer better value on the tote. Shop Till You Drop can be tossed in as a backup. She’s slower on figures than the main ticket players but appears to be a progressive sort and goes for the always powerful J. Hernandez/R. Baltas team. At the very least she can be reasonable competitive.


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Fifth Race – Post: 3:00 PT. Degree of confidence: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Its a Cinch; 4-Bazooka Charlie; 9-No Poking Around
Backups: none.

Forecast: Here’s a “must spread” affair for state-bred maiden juveniles sprinting on turf. We’ll go three-deep but if you can afford to include a few more, go right ahead. Its a Cinch ran okay over this course and distance in a similar affair earlier this month, flashing good speed to lead the way into the lane before giving way grudgingly to wind up third in a better than average race for the level. With only a small forward move, he could stick it out the entire trip today. Bazooka Charlie is a first timer who has been prepared at Los Alamitos out of view from the xbtv.com camera crew. The workout times look fairly decent, so if we take them at face value the son of Grazen should be a solid fit. No Poking Around is bred for turf (Sir Prancealot) and appeared to be going well in a recent breeze that was hardly visible in the dark. The barn has poor stats with first timer starters but in an open fray he’s worth including on your ticket.

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Sixth Race – Post: 3:30 PT. Degree of confidence: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Just Deal
Backups: 7-Glorious Oscar; 4-Cardinal Spirit

Forecast: We know nothing specific about Just Deal – we haven’t seen him breeze because he’s been stabled at Los Alamitos – but in a bottom-rung maiden claimer for juveniles how good does he have to be? Purchased as a weanling for $85,000 and finally making it to the post almost two years later for $32,000, he’s obviously not well thought of by the B. Baffert barn, but the works look okay on paper, and top rider J. Hernandez takes the mount, so we’re expecting that he’ll be good enough to outrun this group at a no-value price. Glorious Oscar was beaten a mile in his debut at Del Mar, but he did flash a bit of early speed facing tougher and has since been gelded, so there’s hope. Prior to his debut, the son of Oscar Performance trained like he had a bit of talent; hopefully he can show some of it today. He’ll be on a backup ticket, as will Cardinal Spirit, slow on numbers but a runner-up at this level at Del Mar and likely to be part of the early pace, at the very least.

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Seventh Race – Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Main Ticket: 8-Kelly’s Out (Ire)
Backups: 1-Bottle Rocket (Fr); 3-Cameron Slough.

Forecast: We’re not crazy about the extreme outside draw in the local doglegged 10 furlong turf routes, but if Kelly’s Our (Ire) runs as well today as she did when beating restricted $32,000 foes at Del Mar last time out for her prior connections she should be able to repeat on the raise for new trainer K. Bainum, though that trainer has just middling stats with the first-off-the-claim angle. Let’s hope the Irish-bred import can take back, drop over, and get cover for the first mile or so and then find room and quicken like she did last time. She’ll be the main push on our key ticket, but backup players may want to protect with Bottle Rocket (Fr.) and Cameron Slough. The former is favorably drawn, and although a bit one paced she’ll certain enjoy today’s extra quarter mile. The latter beat little in a starter $50,000 affair at Del Mar, but she did it the right way and earned a number that gives her a look.


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Eighth Race – Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Main Ticket: 2-Naida; 9-Safa
Backups: 7-Neezer Dalton; 8-Mirinda.

Forecast: Naida launches a comeback and has trained like she’s fit and ready for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. She was game in her debut victory last year at Del Mar in a fairly decent maiden state-bred dash, and our assumption is she returns bigger, faster, and likely better thanks to an additional year of maturity. With J. Hernandez taking the call, the daughter of He Be Fire N Ice has the look of a live item. Safa is a seasoned daughter of Grazen who has never been worse than second in four career starts over the Santa Anita main track. She lacks gate quickness and will need to save some ground from her outside draw, but on pure figures she’s strictly the one to beat. Neezer Dalton can be tossed in as a backup; her numbers have been all over the map but she should at least hit the board, while Mirinda continues to looks sensational in the morning, but after a jaw dropping debut win 13 months ago the daughter of Mitole can’t seem to perform under pressure in the afternoon. The talent is there, or at least it used to be.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Ninth Race – Post: 5:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Pondicherry; 10-Certitude
Backups: 8-Flight to Quality.

Forecast: Pondicherry is an intriguing first timer from the D. Blacker barn. We’ve seen her workout videos and she actually doesn’t appear to be half bad. With Bernstein on the bottom, she should handle grass and she moves like a decent athlete capable of winning against this group at what should be a decent price. Certitude is back sprinting and is likely to improve after almost a three month freshening and a disappointing run as the favorite over a mile at Del Mar. She was a maiden tackling winners that day but was bet down to favoritism due to the field’s lack of depth. She can win, but certainly doesn’t have to. Flight to Quality, away since last December, returns with Lasix, shows up in a seller, and could be a better type this time around. She's worth including in a secondary role.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #5

#11 Golden Symphony	His turf debut was decent enough to think he can come forward today, and he has enough positional pace to overcome a tricky wide draw. In the mix at a price.
#9 Rocky Joy	He should graduate one of these days, but that has also seemed the case in several of his recent starts. Forward player should find himself in another good spot turning for home.
#6 Paris Surprise	He's another with some tactical pace and tends to be in the thick of things in the lane, but he's also a bit like Rocky Joy in lacking that final gear.
Race Summary	Golden Symphony may still have a little turf upside off what felt like a useful run at Kentucky Downs in August. Price should be OK.

Keeneland - Race #6

#15 Northern Voyage	She'll need some scratch help to get in, but she probably hits hard with this group if she is able to go. Perfect spying trip in the cards.
#4 Mindy's Union	Debuter has some forward looking drills on the page and isn't landing in what feels like the deepest special weight spot we'll see here on paper. Check her out ahead of this.
#2 Platinum Midnight	She could bring something better today, especially if she's able to get a better break this time around. Jury is still out after just the one troubled start.
Race Summary	Northern Voyage looks like the part if she's able to draw in here, but Mindy's Union is the most appealing in the main body with some first-out intrigue.

Keeneland - Race #8

#1 All I Want Is You	There are a few speed players drawn wider in here, and she may get the chance to stay tucked on the fence and look for a run through late. Midrange price finishes best?
#3 Ouevre	She just hammered some overmatched Hawthorne runners, and there are some pretty tough names in the lines on her page when she lost -- Ova Charged and Roses for Debra. Beat her to score.
#7 Bling	She has been a borderline stakes player at this type of trip, but she does tend to find one or two of them a little too good most days. Likely underneath if anywhere.
Race Summary	All I Want Is You could get a cozy enough trip to give her a chance to beat the very capable Ouevre. Hoping the pace from the outside crosses over and battles early.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #1

#6 SHORT SKIRTS (15-1)	Disappointed in latest but can’t be discounted as longshot stab in turf debut.
#10 MINARI (9-2)	Was ‘stalled a bit’ while making mid-stretch run for third, moves inside out.
#8 KAKE’S TAP DANCER (8-	Been knocking on the door since DQ, runs for cheapest tag yet.
Race Summary	SHORT SKIRTS found blinkers of little help as a twice-beaten favorite, but she finished in the money in three main-track routes before her last start, worked in 1:01 since then and can awaken for a barn in the midst of a 3-for-7 run with claims. Bet to win and place and play a 4-6-8-10 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#4 BAD BOY BLAZE (5-2)	Minded his manners in second-out romp, ran away from the odds-on fave.
#2 FREEDOM STANCE (2-1)	Trailed early, made ‘mild bid’ into the stretch, no match for 1-to-9 winner.
#5 BUOYANT (3-1)	‘Accelerated’ to lead at 7F and never looked back in first start as a gelding.
Race Summary	BAD BOY BLAZE was in-hand while clearing to the lead and kept the 4-to-5 favorite in the rearview mirror to romp at this distance. He hails from a sharp barn and can handle the step up in class. Bet to win and place and play 4-2 and 4-5 exactas.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#7 LADY SRIRACHA (6-1)	Game second at one mile after sub-par effort here, good value play.
#3 DIAMOND SUE (2-1)	Second best in last two one-turn sprints at this distance, one against ‘Sriracha.’
#6 HOT ROUTE (3-1)	Trailed throughout in June debut on turf, working well on Laurel dirt since then.
Race Summary	Expect a better effort from LADY SRIRACHA on her second visit to Laurel Park after a dull MSW performance two back. She returned to her home base at Parx, pressed the 2-1 winner throughout and couldn’t get by at one mile. She good sit a good stalking trip from the outside and is worth a win and place bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park
PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race 8	Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 9:14P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * AJ TOP SECRET: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. RB LUNCH MONEY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. I CAR TEL: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. THE INVESTOR: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Hor se race). I LIKE PRIZED BUX: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
9	AJ TOP SECRET	4/5	4/1
11	RB LUNCH MONEY	12/1	7/1
6	I CARTEL	6/1	8/1
2	THE INVESTOR	20/1	8/1
5	I LIKE PRIZED BUX	7/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FF MAXIMO KNIGHT	1	15/1	Average	77	67	5.3	0.0	0.0
2	THE INVESTOR	2	20/1	Average	76	75	5.2	0.0	0.0
3	RUNNIN LEGEND	3	20/1	Fast	67	60	1.1	0.0	0.0
4	PEETDRO CARTEL	4	20/1	Slow	65	62	9.6	0.0	0.0
5	I LIKE PRIZED BUX	5	7/2	Slow	81	70	6.5	0.0	0.0
6	I CARTEL	6	6/1	Fast	73	74	2.6	0.0	0.0
7	LIL MISS MONARCH	7	20/1	Average	58	58	5.8	0.0	0.0
8	HELLLO	8	10/1	Fast	77	64	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	AJ TOP SECRET	9	4/5	Average	80	83	4.4	0.0	0.0
10	TEMPTINGMACHO	10	20/1	Slow	69	66	6.9	0.0	0.0
11	RB LUNCH MONEY	11	12/1	Average	80	73	5.5	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 11	Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 10 Cent QH Only Grand High 5 (Pentafecta - Separate Carryover)
Maiden • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 7:28P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * QUEEN OFA BEACH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JUST ANOTHER CORONA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HF RENEGADE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. CANDY STONE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
2	QUEEN OFA BEACH	5/2	5/1
8	FE HOUDINI	20/1	7/1
6	JUST ANOTHER CORONA	8/1	8/1
7	HF RENEGADE	9/2	8/1
5	CANDY STONE	20/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LA UNA DIVA	1	12/1	Slow	70	61	6.2	0.0	0.0
2	QUEEN OFA BEACH	2	5/2	Average	72	70	5.1	0.0	0.0
3	DGAPOLLITICALWARRIOR	3	8/1	Average	68	63	5.7	0.0	0.0
4	KEENIES FINAL GIFT	4	2/1	Slow	0	0	7.6	0.0	0.0
5	CANDY STONE	5	20/1	Fast	66	60	3.4	0.0	0.0
6	JUST ANOTHER CORONA	6	8/1	Average	69	65	4.8	0.0	0.0
7	HF RENEGADE	7	9/2	Slow	67	67	7.7	0.0	0.0
8	FE HOUDINI	8	20/1	Average	73	64	3.9	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Keeneland - Race #3 - Post: 2:04pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#5 VINO FRIZZANTE (ML=5/1)
#4 VIABLE (ML=6/1)


VINO FRIZZANTE - That recent bullet 101.6 work shows that this filly is ready for a top race today. I look for this pony to sit off the pace and make a strong move on the turn, cruising straight on to the wire. Here is an appropriate handicapping angle that I've used many times before. Play a filly (like this one) getting Lasix for the second time. A repeat of that last effort on September 14th where she registered a speed fig of 93 looks lofty enough to win in this affair. VIABLE - The 93 latest race rating looks sound in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SAVE TIME (ML=6/5), #2 LOVE ME SWEET (ML=7/2), #3 DIA ESTELAR (ARG) (ML=8/1),

SAVE TIME - A bit of a lackluster performance when this filly finished seventh. LOVE ME SWEET - I prognosticate disappointment for this animal in this race. DIA ESTELAR (ARG) - This filly didn't do too much last time out of the box. Notched a mediocre rating last time around the track in a $75,000 Maiden Claiming race on September 19th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - VINO FRIZZANTE - One of my favorite plays is a longshot that has the top Power Rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 VINO FRIZZANTE is going to be the play if we are getting 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10800 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. NO WVB CLAUSE.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 NONESUCH GIRL 9/5
# 11 LEGEND OF LIGHT 5/1
# 2 BALI HAI 5/1

NONESUCH GIRL has a competitive shot to take this race. Could best this group of horses here, showing solid numbers of late. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this field. Formidable average speed figs in dirt sprint races make this equine a solid choice. LEGEND OF LIGHT - Is a definite contender - given the 57 speed figure from her most recent race. Recently Latchman has been on fire which may give the edge to this filly. BALI HAI - Has to be given a chance versus this field displaying very good figs recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 54 under similar conditions. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this field in her last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $25840 Class Rating: 79

IND - R3 - FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 ROYAL COURT 8/1
# 10 WICKED MELODY 3/1
# 8 CHANNEL Z 9/2

My selection in here is ROYAL COURT particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. The speed fig of 74 from his latest affair looks respectable in here. Has been racing solidly and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. WICKED MELODY - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. Displays strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. CHANNEL Z - Wisner has this gelding racing well and is a respectable choice based on the very strong Speed Figures earned in route races recently. Could beat this group given the 78 Equibase Speed Figure recorded in his last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Laurel - Race #4 - Post: 1:58pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $41,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#5 NOT GUILTY (ML=5/2)


NOT GUILTY - She got a decent speed rating the last time she tried this distance. I know she'll be way back, but she's got a wonderful kick at the top of the lane. Carrasco rode this horse for the initial time last time out and comes right back in today's contest. This filly finished well ahead of the show horse on October 3rd. Those horses tend to run well next time out. A pony coming back this rapidly after a sharp effort is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DIAMOND SUE (ML=2/1), #6 HOT ROUTE (ML=3/1), #4 RASCALLION (ML=5/1),

DIAMOND SUE - This entrant likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually get the job done. Don't play in the top spot. HOT ROUTE - This filly hasn't had any recent success in sprint races. No picnic to bet on her in this race. This steed ran a substandard speed fig last time around the track. She shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that number. RASCALLION - Today's contest is 7 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event in the last couple of months. Not the best of indicators.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - NOT GUILTY - The affair on October 3rd had a class rating of 77 while today's class rating is 70. I got to bet this one on such a big drop.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 NOT GUILTY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$7500 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W $3500. LAST 3

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 EXOTIC DRAGON 5/2
# 2 THE TURNING POINT 2/1
# 5 YES IM HUNGRY 4/1

If you want a competitive play in here, feast your eyes on EXOTIC DRAGON. Worth considering here given the ratings in the TrackMaster Speed Rating department alone. A formidable class horse shouldn't be be glossed over. With an avg class rating of 76 all signs look very good for this one. Outstanding win stat combined with recent competitive performances. We think she can handle this group. THE TURNING POINT - That 75 speed rating clocked in the last race puts this contender in the mix for this race. Some trainers just fit better with certain contenders. That seems to be the case in this race with Barrington. A formidable bet. YES IM HUNGRY - Starters win from this position at Flamboro Downs with better than average regularity, suggesting this super play. Getting a good idea about this mare. Could surprise in this contest.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Rideau Carleton

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
1	1	BEAUTY IS BLIND	5/2	Berube, Pascal - 18	435.20
7	7	BEACH JOURNEY	3/1	Gagnon, Guy - 27	418.13
5	5	A SAILORS DELIGHT	4/1	Shepherd, Robert H - 19	418.11
6	6	LYONS SHINING	8/1	Roy, William - 7	398.44
8	8	BETTER CATCH GIRL	10/1	Gagnon, Jimmy - 16	396.78
3	3	DARKRSHADEOFPALE N	12/1	Auger, Marie-Claude - 13	392.03
4	4	LA COEUR CHAPEAU	6/1	Robinson, Robert C - 8	385.04
2	2	ONTHEROADTOTEXAS	9/5	Gilchrist, Jason L - 7	379.31

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
1	1	SOMEBEACH BARON	3/1	Merton, Michael - 22	487.42
5	5	DESIRE'S CAPTAIN	7/2	Merton, Gregory - 29	462.47
7	7	ITZALLDOWNTOLUCK N	10/1	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 11	451.43
2	2	LEAR SEELSTER	5/1	Rawlings, Dan - 9	447.87
6	6	A BOY NAMED SUUZZ	6/1	Aldrich, Bruce Jr - 16	441.70
3	3	GOLDEN GESTURE	4/1	Taggart, Jim Jr - 16	439.93
4	4	BETTORS AUTHORITY	5/2	Merton, Thomas - 10	434.74
8	8	PINE BUSH UP FRONT	12/1	Taggart, Shane - 7	345.40

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Post: 9:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$13000 - 3-5 YEAR OLD CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $20,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 I AINT NO MACK 6/5
# 2 COLD CREEK FELIPE 3/1
# 6 ON DAYBOO 8/1

The consensus in this race is that I AINT NO MACK is the one to beat. This contest could be controlled by this gelding. A single look at the avgerage speed rating will confirm that. If effort in the most recent competition is representative, this harness racer will have a very competitive shot in this event. High last race speed rating. When the trainer Devita puts Bartlett up for the drive competitive things happen. Take a look at the 33 win percent. COLD CREEK FELIPE - Worth considering here if only for the great speed rating recorded in the most recent outing. ON DAYBOO - With a 83 avg class rating, this contender has one of the best class edges in the race. With a really strong 80 speed fig last time out, will most definitely be a factor in this race.

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Hotlist - October 24


Oct. 23, 2024

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2^nd race – (3) Foxy Zorra takes a big class drop and should prove best. (10) Romantic Dancer was second at this level last time and could be the main threat. (1) Chica Arma drops a notch and should get some attention. (8) Runaway Kitten could be a threat in a claimer. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-8-10. Doubles: 1-3-8-10 with 2-3-4-6.

3rd race – (6) Save Time will welcome a return to the main track. (2) Love Me Sweet seems ready for a strong effort in her debut. (3) Dia Estelar was third last time and should be a threat here. (4) Viable figures to be a late presence in this field. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-6.

5th race – (1) Bourbon Boss should perk up with a better try on turf. (3) Research Results will be helped by a quick pace. (5) Jungle Law could perk up back on turf. (6) Paris Surprise was second in his last two tries and figures to be a contender again. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-6.

7th race – (3) Star of Wonder (A) was an impressive allowance winner and can make it three wins in a row. (2) Society Man gets some class relief after running in graded stakes. (6) Snead didn’t fire after a layoff. Can move forward here. (7) Vitality ships in from Canada off a sharp win. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6-7.

9^th race – (6) Magic Nera was second in his last three starts. Gets an elusive win here. (7) Sutherland should be watched off the Morley claim. (8) Fenwick regained winning form last time. Merits consideration here. (2) Abadin will be a threat off the class drop. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-6-7-8.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(3)	Star of Wonder	A, 9/14	7 KEE	Comes off an impressive win