Sunday 10/27/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:20 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/27/24

October 27, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita 5th Race – Post: 3:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection/Prime Play: 5-Whatmakessammyrun
Backups: 3-Great King

Forecast: Whatmakessammyrun has some back class that hasn’t been exploited this year, but he’s now in the high percentage Mark Glatt barn, and in his first start off the claim the veteran gelding could easily regain his winning form in this contentious extended turf sprint for older $32,000 claimers. The son of We Miss Artie was forced to take the overland trip and may have lost more ground that he was beaten by when unplaced (just three lengths behind the winner) in his most recent start, but he if he can save some ground today and improve as expected for his new connections he can secure his first victory of the year at what should be an attractive number on the tote.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita – 10th race - Post: 5:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 6-Final Edition
Backups: 2-Money Makes Money.

Forecast: Final Edition is a dangerous ship-and-win entrant in this extended turf sprint for older maidens and brings with him speed figures that are good enough to beat this field. Now in the V. Cerin barn after a pair of promising runs in New York last summer when conditioned by W. Ward, the son of Uncle Mo has trained quite well in recent weeks to be fit and ready and is back sprinting at a distance that compliments his style. Top rider J. Hernandez takes the call, so it all adds up to a major performance and a prime play at anything close to his morning line of 3-1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:20 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 27, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a 16-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Seven It Is (3-1)-Made its debut for the Oliverio barn in last after shipping in from the East coast. Hadn't raced in a few weeks, drew the 8-hole, and took the long way around. Aaron Merriman gets the nod and should be better in the 2nd start on the oval.
4-Hot Shave (4-1)-This 3-year-old could take a picture at a square price with an efficient trip. Has won 3 of 4 here and could be ready to top older. Cory Kreiser trainee should be racing at the top of the stack and be there at the wire.
7-Beautiful Lather (2-1)-The Lather Up 3-year-old doesn't get the best post draws but has enough gate speed to get the point or the 2-hole. Should be in play early and Ronnie Wrenn can work an effective trip and be in the hunt.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Live And Let Di (5/2)-Beaten odds-on chalk should be on the point or in the pocket when the wings fold. Has won 8 of 23 this year and looks like a main player again.
5-Hill Of A Night (2-1)-Program chalk has won 2 straight, the last coming from the 8-hole versus this kind. Likes to take pictures and the win streak could continue with the right trip.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

3-Holi Starzzz A (9/2)-Faded down the lane versus straight FM Open company but was off for 3 weeks between starts.
Wrenn grabs the lines, that's a positive driver change, comes back in sequence and looks like a player at a square price.
9-Trick Of The Light (3-1)-Needs to get a few breaks but there is some gate speed inside and could come away with a decent seat. Tried to go gate to wire in last and missed by a neck. Can close in a hurry and is a player with a sharp steer.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

5-I'm A Beach Lady (8/5)-Winner in 10 of 29 races this year but has only taken 1 picture at Nfld. Recent winners are not in this field plus gets a ++ driver change in Aaron Merriman. He can muscle his way to the top and control the mile. Should be difficult to down with a smooth trip and won't offer any value.

$2.00 Late Pick 4

1,4,7/1,5/3,9/5
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:21 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1

#3 It's My World	Think he has a little appeal in the opener while potentially racing in a perfect spot off whatever modest pace develops. He might be better on the lawn than he showed in the career debut.
#4 Blame the Classic	No doubt he's the one to beat in here after a couple good exacta finishes, and he has a little bit of positional speed in a race lacking much early burn. Tough.
#5 Miss Will	She seems in the mix here, but I wouldn't want too short a price with a little bit of proving to do over the local turf course. Capable, but would like to see her turn in a big one away from Del Mar.
Race Summary	It's My World gets back to the turf after a couple decent dirt starts, and he might wind up in a perfect spot in this small field while tracking a modest tempo.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#3 Wine On Tap	She has flashed a little quality at times, and now she gets on the grass for the first time. Mom did good work on synthetic footing, so there's a chance she wakes up a bit here.
#6 Medora	Not much to argue with on her form after suffering her first two losses at the hands of a talented upstart. Versatile speed classes up well here and can hit hard.
#7 Tiaraqueen	She hasn't been able to match strides with some of the other longshots in here, but I wonder if he one-paced style could play OK enough to give her a shot at a deep underneath placing at a big number?
Race Summary	Wine On Tap has some pedigree that hints the surface switch could work in her favor, and she has some upside while making her second start of the campaign.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#1 Concord Bridge	Will take that last one at face value and hope he can run back to it in the second start on the turf. Price might still be OK while some players wait and see if he can validate the run at 28/1 last out.
#2 Money Makes Money	He can be tough after establishing a pretty tough baseline through just two starts, and that bit of positional pace he showed last out might serve him well again today.
#8 Running Spartan	Cutback pace might try to have a go for it at this shorter trip in a spot without a ton of confirmed sprint speed. Could stick around for a share at a number.
Race Summary	Concord Bridge woke up when trying turf last out, and something similar to that keeps him in the frame with Money Makes Money, who looks like the one to beat off some pretty solid established form.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:23 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 8	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 8-9-10)
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $48,000 • Post: 4:36P
(RAIL AT 52 FEET). FOR STATE BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTH)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * REMINDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SOUPER ATTENTIVE: Horse's ave rage winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). SOCIALLONGDISTANCE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SHANKAR: Horse had a bullet workout within the last sev en days. PRIVATE THOUGHTS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	REMINDER	5/2	6/1
7	SOUPER ATTENTIVE	4/1	7/1
8	SOCIALLONGDISTANCE	12/1	7/1
9	SHANKAR	9/2	8/1
6	PRIVATE THOUGHTS	6/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	CATCH A TIGER	2	7/2	Front-runner	91	90	105.9	86.0	77.0
5	HONESTO	5	8/1	Front-runner	88	87	92.9	78.7	68.2
8	SOCIALLONGDISTANCE	8	12/1	Front-runner	95	89	85.2	94.4	87.9
6	PRIVATE THOUGHTS	6	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	93	93	74.0	82.5	75.5
7	SOUPER ATTENTIVE	7	4/1	Stalker	95	88	86.8	84.4	78.4
9	SHANKAR	9	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	92	89	77.8	81.2	74.2
4	BOLD ADVANCE	4	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	82	76.9	76.3	61.3
3	REMINDER	3	5/2	Trailer	89	87	92.9	87.2	76.2
1	FOR THE CHIEF	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	79	78.6	77.2	63.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:23 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 7	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Second Leg Pick 4
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $85,000 • Post: 4:00P
O.D. MCDONALD S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD, REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BREDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $200 TO NOMINATE AN ADDITIONAL $500 TO ENTER. FIELD LIMITED TO TWELVE (12) STARTERS, WITH HORSES PREFERRED BY 2023-2024 EARNINGS AT THE TIME OF CLOSING NOMINATIONS. WEIGHT: 3YR OLDS: 122.LBS OLDER 124.LBS, FILLIES AND MARES: 121.LBS NON WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES IN 2024 ALLOWED 3.LBS. NOMINATIONS CLOSE FRIDAY OCTOBER 18, 2024 AT 2:00 PM. RACE WILL BE LASIX FREE. ( A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. ANCIENT LAND is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LET HIM BE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ANCIENT LAND: Horse had a bullet workou t within the last seven days. I THINK I'M HERE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BODIE GOT GOLD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. THUNDER DOME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 day s.
1	LET HIM BE	5/2	5/1
3	ANCIENT LAND	5/1	6/1
6	I THINK I'M HERE	8/1	8/1
9	BODIE GOT GOLD	7/2	8/1
8	THUNDER DOME	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ANCIENT LAND	3	5/1	Front-runner	96	86	74.2	75.2	63.7
1	LET HIM BE	1	5/2	Stalker	97	92	70.0	92.8	86.8
10	ANTONIOS MARK	10	9/2	Stalker	92	79	56.0	78.6	66.1
9	BODIE GOT GOLD	9	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	93	91	63.3	80.6	75.1
7	DELBERT TOO	7	12/1	Trailer	91	78	68.8	79.2	66.2
8	THUNDER DOME	8	10/1	Trailer	92	82	53.3	83.7	77.2
2	DAVE'S ENCHANTMENT	2	15/1	Trailer	91	88	50.0	73.0	59.5
6	I THINK I'M HERE	6	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	92	63.9	86.7	80.2
4	THRUTHESTORM	4	25/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	71	58.8	75.4	56.9
5	SPINNING BLACK	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	90	58.6	69.2	54.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:23 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 3.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 59

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ZIP IT WRIT 1/1
# 2 TANSI 8/1
# 5 WORTHY SPIRIT 3/1

I think ZIP IT WRIT is a decent choice. Should be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last contest. Has very good early speed and should fare strongly against this group. With Hughes getting the mount, watch out for this racer. TANSI - With a nice class rating average of 66, has one of the top class advantages in this group. I like Bryan on this filly to give her a quite good chance to hit the wire first. WORTHY SPIRIT - Looks competitive against this group of horses and should be one of the leaders. The average class figure of 23 makes this entrant tough to beat.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #5 - Post: 2:44pm - Stakes - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $250,000 Class Rating: 97 Empire Distaff S.

Rating:

#5 BON ADIEU (ML=8/1)
#3 VENTI VALENTINE (ML=9/2)
#4 SMOKIN' HOT KITTY (ML=3/1)

BON ADIEU - Aboard this horse on Oct 19th and Silvera is back again in the irons this time around. You always have to be on the patrol for bankroll building rider/trainer combinations; we have one right here. This should be an easier task than what she was asked last time out against 'open' company. She must like the track here. Shipped in to finish first on October 19th and she looks tough once again. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. VENTI VALENTINE - I took a look at this mare's finishes. She's almost always in-the-money. This mare faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. 76-86-88 are last 3 speed figs. Improving each time out is something she should do again right here in this race. This horse earns a lot of cash per start. I believe she will add to the lifetime earnings in this race. SMOKIN' HOT KITTY - Faces state bred foes today after finishing first versus 'open' company on Sep 22nd. De Paz must have known this mare would run well at this track. Won her last race here on Sep 22nd and now goes for two in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 STERLING SILVER (ML=1/1), #1 AMANDA'S FOLLY (ML=6/1),

STERLING SILVER - No speed in this race to help this stretch-runner's hopes. A bit of a less than stellar effort when this mare finished third. AMANDA'S FOLLY - Disappointing fig last time out at Saratoga at 1 1/4 miles. Don't believe this horse will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 BON ADIEU to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:24 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 2.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 BLACK MAGICIAN 2/1
# 4 ZIPPY BABY 10/1
# 2 RUSTY CAGE 3/1

BLACK MAGICIAN looks to be a quite good contender. Will most likely compete admirably in the early speed battle which bodes well with this field. ZIPPY BABY - Aquino has well above average dividends at this distance/surface. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run as of late. RUSTY CAGE - Looks competitive versus this field and will most likely be one of the leaders. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 64 - of his last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-27-2024, 08:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Special - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $54,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#1 FIGHT BACK (ML=4/1)

FIGHT BACK - On board this horse on September 27th and Fresu is back again in the irons this time. Have to give this gelding a fair chance. Ran a strong contest in the last race within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BLAME THE CLASSIC (ML=6/5), #5 MISS WILL (ML=8/5), #3 IT'S MY WORLD (ML=6/1),

BLAME THE CLASSIC - 6/5 is not enough of a price to take on this participant. MISS WILL - This filly earned a speed rating in her last clash which likely isn't good enough in today's event. IT'S MY WORLD - Ran squirrelly on August 8th. Be leery this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 FIGHT BACK to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**rocky57** · 10-27-2024, 11:53 AM

Teddy Covers NFL
Titans/Lions Under 45.5
Chiefs -8.5

**ConleyPicks** · 10-27-2024, 02:31 PM

Thank you CPAW and Rocky for posting in today's forum.

The forum was not working once again today for posting stuff. Took too long to even get onto the website before saying, "This page is unresponsive".

So either it's on my end or something with this forum for not working. Maybe the mods should look into why that is happening? It never used to do that with the old forum, but ever since we have got this "new" forum, it hasn't been the same.

Sorry for sounding like a POS about it, but I am sure I am not the only one who is suffering from this