Thursday 10/31/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 10/31/24

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October 31, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Del Mar

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Santa Anita – 6th race - Post: 3:05 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 4-Broski (Ire)
Backups: none.

Forecast: Broski (Ire) makes his U.S. debut for sharp connections after displaying a decent amount of promise in his racing debut in Ireland last summer. Second of 17 over the left handed, American-styled Leopardstown course, he was a assigned a solid 66 Timeform rating for that performance and based on that number the P. D’Amato-trained colt absolutely fits on this circuit. The local workouts should have him fit and ready, and the presence of F. Prat in the saddle provides strong indication that he’s extremely well meant. At 4-1 on the morning line, he offers good value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.


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Santa Anita 7th Race – Post: 3:35 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 5-Jerry’s Spirit
Backups: none.

Forecast: After returning off a long layoff to pulverize maiden claimers sprinting at Los Alamitos with a huge speed figure, Jerry’s Spirit was moved into much tougher starter’s allowance company and stretched out to a mile in his next outing, and under the circumstances did quite well to be third after establishing the pace before giving way grudgingly under pressure in the final stages. Today, he’s back around one corner where he belongs, is protected again in a sign of confidence, and shows two recent sharp breezes to indicate he’s held his form. Not a need the lead type, the son of Ghostzapper projects to enjoy a lovely stalking trip outside and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. This extended sprint distance should be right up his ally, so at 5/2 on the morning line the Dean Pederson-trained gelding looks like a good investment in the win pool and in the various available exotics.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #4

#8 Petite Ange	She only tried the turf once -- in her career debut -- so she might not be fully exposed over the footing yet. She's unreliable, but the price might be OK to give her a look in hopes she brings her A-game and likes the turf.
#6 Spanish Cara	She is one of a few in here with similar profiles, and she probably benefits from trying to settle toward the back today after tracking and fading in that last one. Could flash better today.
#2 Sophisticate	Lack of early speed has been a liability for her so far, but the baseline form is there for her to be tough if she gets any kind of setup...not sure she will.
Race Summary	Petite Ange has shown just enough pace to think she can find a spot tracking the splits today, and she has already turned in a couple efforts that would be competitive here if she handles the new footing.

Del Mar - Race #6

#8 Muscled	Think there is a little price appeal second time out after a forgettable debut run. He took a mild bit of cash that day (10/1 against nine others) but gave away his race at the start. Cleaner getaway lets him make one more manageable run today?
#7 Curvino	Spent a good bit of time thinking he might be the right place to lean heavily in this one, but I'm just the tiniest bit concerned about one of these outkicking him in the final yards. Wouldn't argue much with anyone landing here.
#4 Broski	He outran his 33/1 price in the European debut, and he probably has some upside with just that one race under his belt. See how he looks ahead of this.
Race Summary	Muscled made up a little bit of ground after a bad break, but he didn't sustain that move for long at first asking before fading to the tail again. Could be better with a clean slate today.

Del Mar - Race #8

#5 Sketchy	There are a couple others in here with enough pressing pace to potentially keep her honest, but the front end looks there for the taking, and I think the pressers may be happy to sit first-jump trips. Sneaks off to score?
#3 Sine Qua Non	Think he's worth a little price look after graduating going short off the layoff, but there might be some upside in this second start back while stretching out. Would've had him as a swing on top if the likely race flow felt more appealing.
#10 King of Gosford	She's got the right kind of tactical pace to find a good spot from the wide draw while stretching out. Likely one of the first to take a shot at the top choice.
Race Summary	Sketchy did a lot of dirty work before just giving way in that last one, and I'm hoping they'll have some fun on the front end and let him avoid an early battle.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #1

#8 LITTLE JOSIE WALES (8-1)	Can be excused for latest, live longshot in second start for this barn.
#7 SOPHISTICATED CAT (8-5)	Drifted on lead and got caught in fast turf sprint, returns to claim level.
#4 HAZELMOOR BEACH (15-1)	Can rally for minor awards, use underneath in gimmick wagers.
Race Summary	LITTLE JOSIE WALES showed a passing gear the last time she won and it could come in handy if she breaks alertly from the outside and stalks a projected lively pace. She lost all chance at the start off the claim by Farrior but looms a wake-up possibility at an inflated price. Bet to win and place and play an 8/4,7/ALL trifecta.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#11 HEYBACKATCHA (9-2)	Blew clear lead in ‘amateurs’ race, can prevail in field that is 6-106 on turf.
#9 PURE MAGIC GIRL (6-1)	Solid turf numbers, ran into traffic in late stretch against top one.
#7 PUT A ROCK ON IT (5-2)	Ran 1-2-3 in grass routes before overland journey in tougher spot.
Race Summary	HEYBACKATCHA made first run into a fast pace and cleared to a 2-length stretch lead before a pair of deep closers passed by in an amateur riders’ race. The same move could lead to the winners’ circle on the cutback in distance. Bet to win and place and play 11-7, 11-8 and 11-9 exactas.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#3 MY CHARM (5-2)	Second in stakes company at the distance, strictly the one to beat.
#4 ROSIEONTHERIVER (15-1)	Wore down the fave in 5-1/2F win, gets in with 105 pounds on class rise.
#5 SHAKHRA (3-1)	‘Relentless’ in stakes victory, in top form, distance the question.
Race Summary	MY CHARM, hard-ridden to stay close the upset winner in the Twixt Stakes, meets mostly stretch-out sprinters in her second go-round in the one-turn mile. She romped in her debut and ran second to unbeaten Amalfi Drive in her second start. Bet to win and place and play 3-4 and 3-5 exactas.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 6	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Maiden Claiming $14,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 24 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 116 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * FLOR DE CANA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POSESIVA: Ho rse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LA CATEDRAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fi gure at the distance/surface.
7	FLOR DE CANA	2/1	3/1
6	POSESIVA	10/1	6/1
8	LA CATEDRAL	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	POSESIVA	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	37.0	11.4	7.4
7	FLOR DE CANA	7	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	26	17	21.1	20.2	16.2
3	JULITZA M	3	10/1	Trailer	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	LA CATEDRAL	8	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	19.0	9.5	4.0
1	LA DESAPERCIBIDA	1	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: MIDNIGHT SAVANNAH (5/1) [Jockey: Rosario Keddwin - Trainer: Rondon Arturo], GIAH'S DREAM (3/1) [Jockey: Monserrate Steven - Trainer: Rivera Joaquin], MIMI P. R. (7/2) [Jockey: Osorio Jr Jose - Trainer: Merced Giovanni].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park
PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race 8	Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 79 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 9:14P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * BV MR D: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. THISDUDECAN DANCE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. DNA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ZOOMIN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. PROPRIETOR: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation.
12	BV MR D	9/5	6/1
5	THISDUDECAN DANCE	2/1	6/1
8	DNA	12/1	7/1
10	ZOOMIN	7/2	8/1
11	PROPRIETOR	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	EC JET PATROT	1	10/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	64	67	8.5	0.0	0.0
2	MS CORONA PATRIOT	2	20/1	Slow	55	56	7.5	0.0	0.0
3	STAR ON THE MOUNTAIN	3	20/1	Average	66	61	5.6	0.0	0.0
4	KINGS VOLCOM YG	4	6/1	Fast	69	66	1.0	0.0	0.0
5	THISDUDECAN DANCE	5	2/1	Slow	77	78	6.5	0.0	0.0
6	THE FAMOUS OTOOLE	6	5/1	Average	72	65	5.3	0.0	0.0
7	L RAYO	7	12/1	Average	68	55	3.6	0.0	0.0
8	DNA	8	12/1	Average	80	74	5.0	0.0	0.0
9	HOUDINI SPECIAL	9	12/1	Average	71	70	5.4	0.0	0.0
10	ZOOMIN	10	7/2	Fast	76	72	1.4	0.0	0.0
11	PROPRIETOR	11	5/1	Fast	75	71	1.9	0.0	0.0
12	BV MR D	12	9/5	Fast/Trouble-prone	77	78	3.3	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING 10,000 FOR HORSES THAT HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 WILDWOOD QUEEN 5/2
# 3 DEFAULT 2/1
# 6 BACKSTAGE BAMBI 8/1

WILDWOOD QUEEN looks to be a decent contender. Shows reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. Should be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last contest. Is hard not to consider given the company run in recently. DEFAULT - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. Shows strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group of horses. BACKSTAGE BAMBI - Randazzo has this mare running well and is a strong choice based on the quite good Speed Figures recorded in sprint races lately.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #2 - Post: 6:44pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#6 RAGING BEAR (ML=3/1)


RAGING BEAR - A racer coming back this quickly after a solid effort is a good signal. Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. This gelding should be at the peak of fitness, this far into his form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SCAMP WALKER (ML=5/2), #2 CITIZEN MACK (ML=7/2), #1 SPELLED WELL (ML=5/1),

SCAMP WALKER - Last performed on September 30th at Parx Racing, finishing sixth. Unlikely to move up off of that effort in today's event. CITIZEN MACK - Tough to like the downward spiraling flow (70/63/55) of speed ratings. SPELLED WELL - I don't see this racer doing too much off of the extended layoff. He probably needs a race or two to get back into shape. Will be hard for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 RAGING BEAR to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $72000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SQUINTS 6/1
# 2 IRIDESCENT 7/2
# 1 BOSS TWEED 6/1

I give the nod to SQUINTS here. This horse has been consistently racing well in his latest outings. Has to be considered based on the very strong speed figure garnered in the last affair. Seems to have a quite good class edge based on the latest company kept. IRIDESCENT - He has been running soundly and the speed figs are among the most competitive in this group of animals. The average class fig of 82 makes this one tough to beat. BOSS TWEED - Looks very good against this group and will most likely be one of the early speedsters. If you look closely, this one has some longshot potential.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,400 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#3 PROSPECTIVE LOVE (ML=9/2)
#1 PULPIT'S JUSTICE (ML=7/2)


PROSPECTIVE LOVE - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. This speedball should benefit from this shorter distance. This pace horse could take the lead quickly. My guess is he'll take a shot at going wire to wire in easy fashion. PULPIT'S JUSTICE - It looks like Thorpe had to learn all about this colt on September 19th when riding him for the first time. Back aboard again today. This jock/handler duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +213. Outran his odds in his initial start. Look for another strong effort today. Earnings per race is something that I feel can be a valuable selection factor. This horse is ranked at the very top in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 WASHINGTON'S UNION (ML=9/5), #5 SECRET SATURDAY (ML=5/1), #7 HOLD UP (ML=6/1),

WASHINGTON'S UNION - Unlikely for this thoroughbred to make a winning move with no recent success in a sprint clash. Don't feel this horse will make an impact in today's race. That last rating was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. SECRET SATURDAY - Didn't do alot last time. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. HOLD UP - Don't believe this questionable contender will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's class rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 PROSPECTIVE LOVE on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip