Sunday 11/3/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 3


Nov. 01, 2024

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (7) Up the Creek drops in class and looks best here. (4) Daring Hope is an interesting firster from Cox. (1) Flight to Paris will benefit from a rail trip. (2) Wowsers may pose a late threat. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box1-2-4-7.

3rd race – (10) Tango Zulu takes a big class drop and should handle this field. (3) Three Polks has speed and could be tough to catch. (9) Miss Escapade exits a nice maiden win. (6) Perceptive can be a factor on his best try. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-9-10.

5th race – (1) Bourbon Serengeti has speed and the rail and may not look back here. (7) Sister Kisses should be the main competition. (3) Little Blaze fits in with this group. (4) Nursekringledances can improve off her last try. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-7.

7th race – (4) Billal rallied for a nice win at Churchill and can make it two in a row here. (6) Valentine Candy will welcome the shorter distance. (1) Ship Cadet will be a factor if there’s no rust after a long layoff. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6.

9^th race - (7) Dr. Saikali was a useful fourth in his debut and can reach the winner’s circle here. (4) Volt should be the one to fear. (11) Whiskey Shot was an improved third last time and merits attention. (10) Burning Glory may prefer a dry track. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-7-10-11.

[ConleyPicks]

Belmont Park at Aqueduct Hotlist - November 3


Nov. 01, 2024

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2^nd race [Turnback the Alarm, 1 1/8 mi] – (3) Amanda’s Folly (A) got floated out wide to last but rallied to finish third. She comes back in seven days since that run in the Empire Classic for NY-breds and has 10 top three finishes from her last 12 starts. (2) Movie Moxy finished in the top three in 9 out of her 12 starts. (4) Evidencias is another consistent performer having hit the board in 11 out of 12 races. She was a stakes winner at Delaware Park last month. (1) Signal From Noise finished third in the Beldame (G2) behind Raging Sea who ran in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

3^rd race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (2) Real Savvy (B) had the lead last time in the stretch and finished second behind a Hot List winner that came back to win again. (4) Leon Blue ran twice and finished second twice. (3) Sky Masterson has a pair of thirds in his last two races on the grass. (9) Calling Card improved in his second start when he went long and ran second.

5^th race [Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (11) Material Girl (A) pressed the pace in her debut at 9-2, shied away from the crop, and finished third by less than a length. (9) Bernieandtherose rallied in her debut to finish third beaten by just a half-length. (2) Open Flame gets blinkers on and he will need to get back to the way he ran in his first start during the summer. (1) Endless Vow had trouble in both of his starts with a second in his debut race when the rider lost his crop.

7^th race [NY, Alw 82000 N1X, 6F TURF] – (12) Li’l Lang (A) got blocked along the hedge, had to alter course, and lost all chance. (4) Twisted Filigree hit the board in three of these turf allowances since the summer and ran well in a recent stakes race. (2) Eddie the Great was second at this level last month after several successful races in open company claimers. (8) Tomacon takes the blinkers off as he cuts back to a turf sprint and his savvy trainer continues to try and figure him out.

Best bets: Real Savvy (3^rd); Material Girl (5^th). Best value: Amanda’s Folly (2^nd); Li’l Lang (7^th).

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(3)	Amanda’s Folly	A on 10/27	2	She comes back in seven days after a troubled trip.
(2)	Real Savvy	B on 8/30	3	Ran second behind a Hot List horse last time.
(5)	Material Girl	A on 10/5	5	Ran third in her debut and should move forward.
(12)	Li’l Lang	A on 10/4	7	Blocked and lost all chance.

[ConleyPicks]

Belmont Park at Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 3


Nov. 02, 2024

Race #1

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 12:10 PM ET

Best Bet #7 CYCLONE STATE $90,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	7	Cyclone State	L R Rivera Jr.
Place	5-2	5	Uncle Hulka	F Prat
Show	8-1	3	Interceptor	D Davis
Wild card	4-1	4	Antietam	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	7-2	2	Cooper	J Alvarado
Alternate 2	12-1	6	Dio Romano	R R Maragh

Exacta 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/7 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 12:40 PM ET $150,000.00

Race 2 Stakes

Win	8-5	1	Signal From Noise	F Prat
Place	2-1	4	Evidencias	J Rosario
Show	7-2	3	Amandas Folly	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	3-1	2	Movie Moxy	J Lezcano
Alternate 1	12-1	5	Racing Colors	J A Gomez

Exacta 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

Race #3

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 01:10 PM ET $75,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	4	Leon Blue	J R Velazquez
Place	2-1	2	Real Savvy	F Prat
Show	8-1	3	Sky Masterson	J Alvarado
Wild card	5-1	9	Calling Card	J Rosario
Alternate 1	12-1	5	Powered by Coal	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	30-1	1	Prince of Danger	L J Luzzi

Exacta 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX

Race #4

Outer turf 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:40 PM ET

Best Bet #12 LINARITE $80,000.00

Race 4 Allowance

Win	4-1	12	Linarite	J R Velazquez
Place	8-1	9	Sugar Bee	K Davis
Show	5-1	6	Peony	D Davis
Wild card	5-1	3	Boss of All	K Carmouche
Alternate 1	10-1	7	Top of the Table	J Castellano
Alternate 2	8-1	4	Quick Power Nap	F Prat

Exacta 12-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
Trifecta 6/9/12 BOX, 3/6/9 BOX

Race #5

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:10 PM ET

Best Bet #9 BERNIEANDTHEROSE $75,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	9	Bernieandtherose	K Davis
Place	5-2	11	Material Girl	M Franco
Show	10-1	4	Higher Force	L R Rivera Jr.
Wild card	15-1	1	Endless Vow	J Lezcano
Alternate 1	20-1	15	Storm Changer	Y O Ramos
Alternate 2	10-1	10	Caras Dreamweaver	R R Maragh

Exacta 9-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
Trifecta 4/9/11 BOX, 1/4/11 BOX

Race #6

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:40 PM ET $150,000.00

Race 6 Stakes

Win	6-5	5	Nics Style	J Alvarado
Place	7-2	1	Just Katherine	J Castellano
Show	6-1	4	St. Benedicts Prep	J Lezcano
Wild card	20-1	8	Khali Magic	R Silvera
Alternate 1	15-1	3	Rachels Rock	K Carmouche
Alternate 2	10-1	6	Zadorsky	M Franco

Exacta 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX

Race #7

Outer turf 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:11 PM ET $80,000.00

Race 7 Allowance

Win	7-2	12	Lil Lang	F Prat
Place	5-2	4	Twisted Filigree	M Franco
Show	6-1	2	Eddie the Great	L R Rivera Jr.
Wild card	8-1	3	Master Freud	R R Maragh
Alternate 1	8-1	9	Nano Man	L J Luzzi
Alternate 2	15-1	1	Mazzei	J Rosario

Exacta 12-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/12 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

Race #8

Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 03:42 PM ET $150,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	8-1	6	Copper Tax	J Torrealba
Place	7-5	9	Batten Down	J Alvarado
Show	3-1	7	Corporate Power	J Castellano
Wild card	5-1	8	Tuscan Sky	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	12-1	4	Commuted	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	8-1	3	Generous Tipper	K Carmouche

Exacta 6-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/9 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX

Race #9

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:13 PM ET $75,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Special Weight

Win	9-2	10	Tahila	M Franco
Place	5-2	4	Trinity River	F Prat
Show	7-2	12	George Briggs	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	15-1	2	New Matthew	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	8-1	1	Im Due	L J Luzzi
Alternate 2	20-1	6	Ozzy	K Carmouche

Exacta 10-4 BOX, 4-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX
Trifecta 4/10/12 BOX, 2/4/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 3


Nov. 02, 2024

Race #1

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:00 PM ET $50,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Claiming

Win	3-1	7	Up the Creek	L Machado
Place	5-1	2	Wowsers	F Geroux
Show	5-2	4	Daring Hope	L Saez
Wild card	6-1	3	Marmo	T Gaffalione
Alternate 1	7-2	1	Flight to Paris	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Innocent Nyght	R Bejarano

Exacta 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/7 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:29 PM ET $50,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	3-1	4	Tagliatelle	C A Torres
Place	8-5	3	Invulnerable	E Asmussen
Show	7-2	1	Abadin	L Saez
Wild card	12-1	7	Furious Anger	C J Lanerie
Alternate 1	8-1	6	Go the Distance	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	6-1	2	Harvard	R Santana Jr.

Exacta 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

Race #3

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:58 PM ET

Best Bet #5 MOON FLEET $16,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	3-1	5	Moon Fleet	I Moncada
Place	7-2	3	Three Polks	R A Vazquez
Show	8-1	8	Goldblooded	J Padron-Barcenas
Wild card	9-2	6	Perceptive	E Asmussen
Alternate 1	5-1	10	Tango Zulu	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	10-1	1	Goddess of War	R Gutierrez

Exacta 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX

Race #4

Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 02:27 PM ET $120,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	12	Fort Thomas	J R Leparoux
Place	3-1	5	Storm Ready	T Gaffalione
Show	6-1	6	Warp Nine	C J Hernandez
Wild card	5-2	13	Elko County	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	12-1	7	Freedom Maker	L Saez
Alternate 2	15-1	4	Ambition	I Moncada

Exacta 12-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-13 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/12 BOX, 5/6/13 BOX

Race #5

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:57 PM ET

Best Bet #1 BOURBON SERENGETI $72,000.00

Race 5 Starter Allowance

Win	2-1	1	Bourbon Serengeti	L Saez
Place	3-1	7	Sister Kisses	J A Torres
Show	4-1	6	Gloriette	E Morales
Wild card	6-1	5	Sally OMalley	L Machado
Alternate 1	9-2	3	Little Blaze	K J Asmussen
Alternate 2	8-1	4	Nursekringledances	J R Leparoux

Exacta 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/6/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

Race #6

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:26 PM ET $40,000.00

Race 6 Claiming

Win	5-2	9	Pro Oxidant	C J Lanerie
Place	3-1	3	Vivir Con Alegria	T Gaffalione
Show	7-2	8	W W Candy	L Saez
Wild card	8-1	2	J. P. Race	R A Vazquez
Alternate 1	6-1	7	Outlier	G Corrales
Alternate 2	8-1	5	Born Flawless	M Chuan

Exacta 9-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/8/9 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX

Race #7

Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:55 PM ET $141,000.00

Race 7 Allowance

Win	2-1	4	Billal	T Gaffalione
Place	9-5	6	Valentine Candy	J L Ortiz
Show	5-1	3	Joe Shiesty	L Machado
Wild card	6-1	2	Bear River	J Graham
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Hedwig	W A Rodriguez
Alternate 2	8-1	1	Ship Cadet	L Saez

Exacta 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

Race #8

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:25 PM ET $127,000.00

Race 8 Allowance

Win	3-1	10	Spartan Queen	T Gaffalione
Place	3-1	19	Classyn Connected	L Machado
Show	6-1	9	Fantastical	A Concepcion
Wild card	10-1	12	Silk	F Geroux
Alternate 1	7-2	7	Heart Spin	I Moncada
Alternate 2	20-1	6	Steampunk	G Corrales

Exacta 10-19 BOX, 19-9 BOX, 9-12 BOX
Trifecta 9/10/19 BOX, 9/12/19 BOX

Race #9

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:55 PM ET

Best Bet #4 VOLT $120,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	4	Volt	R Santana Jr.
Place	5-2	7	Dr. Saikali	F Geroux
Show	4-1	11	Whiskey Shot	T Gaffalione
Wild card	8-1	10	Burning Glory	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	12-1	5	Successful Union	R Bejarano
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Culture War	C A Torres

Exacta 4-7 BOX, 7-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX
Trifecta 4/7/11 BOX, 7/10/11 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - November 3


Nov. 02, 2024

Race #1

Turf 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:30 PM ET $57,000.00

Race 1 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	2-1	3	Itzel	J J Hernandez
Place	3-1	6	Shuangxi	H I Berrios
Show	9-5	2	Imaboutago	L Dettori
Wild card	4-1	1	Ivory Moon	U Rispoli
Alternate 1	15-1	4	Vitalera	T Baze
Alternate 2	12-1	5	Ma Raes Girl	A Fresu

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:00 PM ET $20,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Claiming

Win	6-5	2	Im Still in It	A Fresu
Place	7-5	4	Spirit Rules	J J Hernandez
Show	5-1	1	Stormy Gal	A Aguilar
Wild card	12-1	3	Smiling Amy	K Frey
Alternate 1	20-1	5	Roses n Chrome	A Escobedo
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Que Bella Luna	J Valdivia Jr.

Exacta 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/4 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

Race #3

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:30 PM ET

Best Bet #6 LEES BABY GIRL $54,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	6	Lees Baby Girl	A Fresu
Place	8-1	10	Resolve	H I Berrios
Show	6-1	1	Dandy Vandy	T J Pereira
Wild card	9-5	9	Slick	L Dettori
Alternate 1	8-1	5	Gathered	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	20-1	8	Lolo Le Plume	E A Maldonado

Exacta 6-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
Trifecta 1/6/10 BOX, 1/9/10 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:00 PM ET $31,000.00

Race 4 Starter Optional Claiming

Win	7-5	3	Saltwater Cowboy	U Rispoli
Place	2-1	2	Demotivate	A Cedillo
Show	6-1	5	J B Strikes Back	A Fresu
Wild card	7-2	4	Smokem Ez	A Aguilar
Alternate 1	5-1	1	Triple Pass	S Carmona

Exacta 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

Race #5

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:30 PM ET $22,500.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	12-1	1	Investalot	A Escobedo
Place	6-1	7	Duran	U Rispoli
Show	3-1	6	Nashobas Joy	J J Hernandez
Wild card	4-1	8	Russells Hustle	M E Smith
Alternate 1	9-2	4	Size Does Matter	A Fresu
Alternate 2	8-1	3	McGregor Lake	A Cedillo

Exacta 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/6/7 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX

Race #6

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:00 PM ET

Best Bet #6 WHISKYGINANDBRANDY $54,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	9-5	6	Whiskyginandbrandy	T J Pereira
Place	5-2	1	Candy Crusher	K Frey
Show	4-1	3	One Smokin Dude	A Aguilar
Wild card	5-1	2	Letmein	D A Herrera
Alternate 1	8-1	5	Riding By	S Carmona
Alternate 2	6-1	4	Hothead	A Fresu

Exacta 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

Race #7

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 06:30 PM ET $55,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	11	Runamileinmyshoes	J J Hernandez
Place	15-1	6	Vibez	A Fresu
Show	4-1	3	Mizzyaan	U Rispoli
Wild card	9-2	2	Ketonia	A Ayuso
Alternate 1	8-1	9	Not A Sinner	H I Berrios
Alternate 2	5-1	1	Wrigleyville	K Frey

Exacta 11-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/11 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

Race #8

Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:00 PM ET $16,000.00

Race 8 Claiming

Win	9-2	3	Mr. Dreamcycle	A Aguilar
Place	7-5	7	Lettheliquortalk	K Frey
Show	5-1	5	Midnight Love	A Fresu
Wild card	15-1	8	Des Doigts	T J Pereira
Alternate 1	6-1	6	Chasing Rain	A Ayuso
Alternate 2	10-1	4	Petesoldfashioned	T Baze

Exacta 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/7 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX

Race #9

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 07:30 PM ET

Best Bet #1 ONLY REPUTATION $55,000.00

Race 9 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	6-1	1	Only Reputation	J J Hernandez
Place	5-2	2	Satellite Heart	L Dettori
Show	6-1	9	Lady Monclaire	A Fresu
Wild card	7-2	6	Shezmisbehaving	T Baze
Alternate 1	12-1	5	Quantum Innergy	D A Herrera
Alternate 2	8-1	8	Sassy Prancelot	K Frey

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: NBA Dallas -7 over Orlando

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Free play from Totals4U


Early Sunday's Free Selection: New Orleans Saints/Carolina Panthers under 43 1/2

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Free play from #1 Sports


Early Sunday's Free Play: Washington Commanders - 4

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Free play from Easy Money Sports


Free Early Sunday Football Selection From Lee
CLEVELAND +1

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Free play from Huddle Up Sports


Sunday Free Play:
Cleveland +1 NFL

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Free play from Teyas Sports


FREE PLAY 11/3/24 NFL ARIZONA -2

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Free play from John Anthony Sports


John Anthony's Free Selection for SUNDAY: Take the CINCINNATI BENGALS

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Free play from Jim Feist


Jim Feist's FREE Pick, SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2024

NFL
452. Tennessee Titans -3 (10 PT / 1 ET)

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Free play from Roz Wins


ROZ FREE Selection SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2024

NFL
471. Rams -1.5 (1:25 PT / 4:25 ET)

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Free play from Platinum Plays


Your Free Pick: the New England/Tennessee Game OVER 39 Points