Monday 11/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:21 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 4, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 rolls in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:40 PM EST)

1-Ever Hoping A (3-1)-Has won 2 of 6 at Yonkers, and should fit well with this group as Jason Bartlett grabs the lines. Team Cushing entry doesn’t race here often and could make the most of this post draw if dialed on high.
3-Backstreet Shadow (5/2)-Classy 9-year-old tried to go gate to wire at PcD but faded. Now, meets a beatable field on a familiar oval where he has picked up 12 wins in 35 races. Matt Kakaley steers again and may not have to go a 26.3 first panel to control the mile. This looks like a spot for a picture in a camera shy year.

Rave 7 (9:00 PM EST)

1-Churchviewfrankl IR (8-1)-Has held its own when having a decent post draw at this level in the last 4 races. Now gets the rail and Brent Holland could work a winning trip at a juicy price.
3-Seven Colors (2-1)-Hasn’t had a very successful year but does take on all comers. Almost won at a jumbo price in the BC Final. The Harris trainee knows how to get the job done but needs the right trip and set up. Jordan Stratton can find a winning strategy from this starting spot.
7-Coaches Corner (3-1)-Per Engblom 4-year-old came off the bench with a 150.3 qualifier and then beat the Invites at Yonkers leaving from post 5. Returns to action on schedule and looks like the one to beat.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

5-Shazam Blue Chip (3-1)-Per Engblom pupil comes off a gate to wire score against this kind. Jason Bartlett has enough gate speed to get the top but doesn’t need to lead every step of the way to win.
6-Sport Secret (5-1)-Will lean toward a square price that could double up. Won versus this kind with a .55 back-half, and Brent Holland can be in line for a similar trip to roll by late.
8-Why Not Now(4-1)-The 4 yr old has had a bad season but did win after joining the Travis Alexander barn at Yonkers on Oct 15. Then went to M1 and wasn’t up to facing Breeders Crown company. Now is stuck with post 8 but can compete with this group at a solid price despite the post draw.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

3-Verdun (5/2)-Winner of 6 straight will lose eventually but not going to count on that happening tonight. Should get the top off the gate and has won 10 of 14 at Yonkers. Pat Lachance could get enough respect to steal a quarter, and the winning streak will continue.

$1 Late Pick 4

1,3/1,3,7/5,6,8/3
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:22 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #3

#6 Jack's Yacht Queen	There is just enough pressing pace in here to hope things will set up for someone to come along with a bit of energy late to land this. Reliable player ran OK going short a few starts back and might be legged up on the cutback today.
#4 Army Kitten	Dropper was in for $25,000 earlier this year, so the drop feels the slightest bit less like a fire sale while plummeting to this level off a couple superfecta finishes with allowance company when last seen at Lone Star. I don't know...
#3 Change the Play	She was a good fit with an Ohio crew last time out, and her two best running lines have come in her two shortest races of her career at this trip. Overbet player?
Race Summary	Jack's Yacht Queen has had a lot of chances and tends to settle underneath, but I wonder if she might be able to finish best while turning back today.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#4 Leavenworth	He's a bit of a reach while stepping up to face winners for the first time, but he should get a good trip up near the top and has the ability to rate just a bit if needed. Some price appeal.
#5 Lord of Mischief	He has been in with some OK groups while working toward his graduation, and he's probably the controlling pace in here today with the top choice finding a spot up there with him.
#1 Last Cookie	He wouldn't be a total surprise, but I think he'll find one or two of these a little too tough today. Feels like more of an underneath player to me with this group.
Race Summary	Leavenworth should be a decent price while rising today, and his form might be just a touch better than it looks on paper at first glance -- especially if you forgive him for the two-back run.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#1 Nublada	She was never a serious player when trying a turf route last out, but she's back to what feels like her best game going short on the main track today. Could find a cozy trip while tracking inside.
#2 Silent Rule	Nothing wrong through two starts here, and she's quick enough to find another perfect trip to get first jump behind a couple quicker players early.
#5 Compute This	She has occasionally been able to settle just a touch off the pace, but she should be in the mix from the start either way with this group. Wouldn't be a total shock from close range.
Race Summary	Nublada has done her best work going short over the local surface, so she has a real chance to wake up today after a dull effort in stakes company last out on the turf.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:22 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Parx - Race #1

#5 IMPERIO AZTECA (9-2)	Takes some catching, can return quick claim dividend on the class hike.
#1 TECA (9-5)	Far back in last pair against better in New York for strong barn with 2-year-olds.
#6 VICKI VALE (7-2)	Former stablemate of ‘Imperio’ has speed, too, couldn’t hold off 9-5 firster.
Race Summary	IMPERIO AZTECA shook a duel and ‘moved clear’ at the quarter pole before the winner rallied past. He steps up off the claim and has to carry his speed a half-furlong farther, but it looks like he can do it in this field. Bet to win and place and play 5-1 and 5-6 exactas.

Parx - Race #2

#6 TRY HARDER (7-2)	Lacked kick in long sprint, can stalk and pounce on projected lively pace at 6F.
#7 JIGGERY POKERY (5-1)	Showed improvement on synthetic track when last seen four months ago.
#3 AARAJ (3-1)	Finished second at three sprint distances in his last four starts.
Race Summary	TRY HARDER stalked the dueling leaders but couldn’t gain at this level last out. He should work out another ideal stalking trip and is worth a win and place bet with a 5/1-3-0 record at today’s 6F distance. Also play a 3-6-7 exacta box.

Parx - Race #4

#3 MERCY MERCY (5-1)	Fits well on best main-track form, value play in a weak field.
#4 ANNA ROCKS (7-2)	Just missed off similar rest, but this time it’s after voided vet claim.
#1 SIRENETTA (4-1)	Steady check-getter at this level but winless in 20 starts this year.
Race Summary	MERCY MERCY fired a blank in a dirt route three starts ago, but she ran second in three consecutive long-distance tests under these conditions early in the year. She’s 7-for-25 on the main track in her career and can work out a good stalking trip in here. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:23 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 7	$2 Daily Double (Races 7-8) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Optional Claiming $12,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $18,800 • Post: 9:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES)(W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * WATERWORKS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SWEET QUEEN BEE: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. KINGDOM QUEEN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TEMPLEMENT: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. SILVER CANDICE: Horse ranks in the top three in Tra ckMaster Power Rating.
7	WATERWORKS	3/1	5/1
6	SWEET QUEEN BEE	7/2	6/1
3	KINGDOM QUEEN	5/1	8/1
4	TEMPLEMENT	6/1	9/1
8	SILVER CANDICE	4/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	SILVER CANDICE	8	4/1	Front-runner	80	79	84.2	73.2	65.7
6	SWEET QUEEN BEE	6	7/2	Front-runner	85	86	81.4	83.2	77.7
7	WATERWORKS	7	3/1	Front-runner	85	88	73.4	81.4	76.9
2	NEEDED	2	8/1	Front-runner	74	77	60.6	71.0	58.0
1	GHOST PLAZA	1	15/1	Front-runner	75	64	57.2	63.4	47.9
4	TEMPLEMENT	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	78	72.2	71.8	63.3
3	KINGDOM QUEEN	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	77	65.8	71.0	65.0
5	MORENA DANCER	5	8/1	Trailer	87	80	37.0	69.4	57.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:23 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $43,000 • Post: 4:45P
IND - R6 - FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Trailer. TAKECHARGEJUSTICE is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TAKECHARGEJUSTICE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" d esignation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BACKYARD JUSTICE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	TAKECHARGEJUSTICE	9/2	2/1
7	BACKYARD JUSTICE	7/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	SARGENT HULKA	10	15/1	Front-runner	80	76	76.0	75.0	62.5
6	TREMOR	6	8/1	Front-runner	75	82	73.6	71.8	60.3
7	BACKYARD JUSTICE	7	7/2	Front-runner	88	76	66.8	80.0	73.5
4	LOOKING GOOD LEWIS	4	10/1	Front-runner	82	76	57.2	70.2	56.7
2	KNIGHT'S MOVE	2	8/1	Stalker	80	66	71.8	71.1	60.1
3	JAILHOUSE JUSTICE	3	5/1	Stalker	81	71	54.8	74.2	62.2
1	NO PROOF	1	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	71	59.1	71.6	55.1
8	TAKECHARGEJUSTICE	8	9/2	Trailer	93	82	76.0	86.4	81.9
11	SAKIC	11	20/1	Trailer	81	69	49.5	70.2	54.2
9	DATTTS LIFE	9	6/1	Trailer	82	80	37.2	73.4	61.9
5	POSITIVE CHANGE	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	75	42.3	65.3	53.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:24 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 LAND MARK DEAL 10/1
# 10 BELLA'S PRAYER 10/1
# 6 DEUS EX MACHINA 3/1

LAND MARK DEAL is the best wager in this race especially at a long price. Has recorded strong speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. BELLA'S PRAYER - With one of the strongest jock in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 77 - of his last effort. DEUS EX MACHINA - Looks strong to be up near the front end at the first call. One of the strongest win percentages between this rider and conditioner make this gelding dangerous.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:24 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 67

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD RACES AT THE 2024 MEET AT THE TIME OF ENTRY). THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 FINANCIALSTABILITY 5/2
# 1 DROSEL DIEM 3/1
# 6 ALONGCAMETHEPRINCE 12/1

FINANCIALSTABILITY looks very good to best this field. He has been running soundly recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Solid selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Has been running solidly lately and will almost certainly be close to the lead early on. DROSEL DIEM - Has run soundly when racing a dirt sprint race. Ran a strong last race. ALONGCAMETHEPRINCE - Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group of animals in his last contest. Expect a much better effort with the drop.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,100 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#5 COMPUTE THIS (ML=8/1)
#9 MIESHA (ML=4/1)
#1 NUBLADA (ML=9/2)
#2 SILENT RULE (ML=7/2)

COMPUTE THIS - A win pct the likes of what Keiser and Wolochuk have achieved together is tremendous. I'm optimistic this filly will run well today. Last workout was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. Looking at this filly's running lines, I see she's almost always in-the-money. I like when a race sets up this way. This filly has the lone pace to bury this field. MIESHA - Jock and trainer do well when they are put together. Martinez and Rone have been consistent together. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. NUBLADA - That 73 fig this filly recorded in her last affair tells me she's a major player today. The August 30th event at Belterra Park was at a class level of (79). Dropping down the class ladder drastically, so she should be in a good spot to win. I know the outfit is serious today. The filly gets Lasix for the first time. SILENT RULE - This horse earns a lot of cash per race around the track. At the top in this contest. Here is an appropriate handicapping angle that I've used many times before. Play a filly (like this one) getting Lasix for the second time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BIG FACTS (ML=5/1),

BIG FACTS - The result of sixth in the last affair shows me that this horse may be losing physical conditioning. Not probable for this one to make an impact with no success lately in a short distance event. Way too far back in the early stages of the last route affair will probably make it tough to make an impression today in this sprint contest.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - COMPUTE THIS - The race on September 3rd had a class rating of 74 while today's class rating is 69. I got to bet this one on such a big drop.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 COMPUTE THIS to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,9] Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2024, 07:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Zia Park - Race #9 - Post: 3:41pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#2 CLAPPING TREES (ML=5/2)

CLAPPING TREES - This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Fincher. Better be wary of this angle. Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Unquestionably on edge for a good one today. Have to forget about that last race on the grass. This filly should do better hitting the main track in this field. Another way to assign class is EPS (earnings per start). This mount has the highest in the field. I think she'll be close at the end. Fincher drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this animal should run well at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 TALENT CONNECTION (ML=8/5), #3 KLIMT'S GIRL (ML=6/1), #5 STREET COLORS (ML=8/1),

TALENT CONNECTION - I'm predicting a lackluster try out of her in today's event. KLIMT'S GIRL - Don't think that this filly has value at 6/1 today. STREET COLORS - Would have to get better off that eighth place finish last time to make an impact here. No good fortune for this less than sharp equine in a sprint event over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a very difficult circumstance I have some doubts when a entrant has front bandages added in the last affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 CLAPPING TREES is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**rocky57** · 11-04-2024, 01:28 PM

Teddy Covers NBA Cavaliers -6.5

**rocky57** · 11-04-2024, 01:32 PM

Mark Zinno NFL
Chiefs Over 13.5 (1st half team total)

**rocky57** · 11-04-2024, 01:35 PM

Carmine Bianco NFL props
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 TD passes-140
Travis Kelce anytime TD +100