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Week 9 NCAA Trends & Angles
One of our favorite angles this season has been playing against favorites that were underdogs in their last two or three games, as these teams oftentimes implode when they are suddenly cast in the favorite role. This week, our feature angle shifts gears a bit and takes a look at favorites that are used to that role, more specifically those that have been favored at least five consecutive games coming in.
Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last five games (112-80-6, 58.3% ATS since 2005): You obviously have to be a good team to be favored so many consecutive weeks, so it stands to reason that these teams would fare better when favored again, especially when playing at home. Playing familiar conference opponents has only added to the success. Granted, this is one of our few angles that is less than 59 percent, but the large sampling nicely compensates for that. There are three qualifying plays this week: Notre Dame -20½, Penn State -5 and Texas A&M -11½. For the record, an early line of the huge LSU vs. Alabama tilt on November 5 is widely available with the top two teams in the country both being on a bye this week, and Alabama -4½ also qualifies under this angle.
Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last six games (81-56-2, 59.1% ATS since 2005): Add another game to the favored streak and the ATS winning percentage jumps to over 59 percent over a still decent sized sampling. All four teams from the previous angle (including Alabama next week) also qualify for this trend.
Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last seven games (52-34-1, 60.5% ATS since 2005): Adding yet one more game gets us over the magical 60 percent mark, granted over just 86 decisions. The only one of the four qualifiers (including Alabama) from the previous angles that does not quality for this one is Penn State.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last two games (191-132-2, 59.1% ATS since 2005): This is the reverse off the previous angles this week. These are oftentimes teams that are not used to being favored, and this record suggests that they usually cannot handle the pressure of being expected to win. Betting against these favorites in unchartered territory would have produced a nice profit of +45.8 units since 2005 based on one unit per play at odds of -110. This angle was off to a 10-0 ATS start this season and is still a solid 17-11, 60.7 percent year-to-date. There are five qualifying plays this week: Mississippi +10½ at Auburn, Boston College +7 at Maryland, Wyoming +17½ at San Diego State, Kansas +28 at Texas and Oregon State +5 at Utah.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games (103-65-1, 61.3% ATS since 2005): Tack on a third straight game as an underdog coming into this game to our previous angle and the winning percentage jumps to over 61 percent over a fairly nice sized sampling. There are four qualifiers this week, which is every team from the previous trend except Kansas.
Play on any conference home favorite coming off of six straight up wins or more (124-69-3, 64.2% ATS since 2002): Yes, you read that correctly, this is an angle that has gone 64 percent over 193 decisions going all the way back to 2002, and unlike most of our other angles, this system is not contrarian! A team that wins six straight games in the same season is usually a good team, as that is enough wins where not all the victories can be attributed to luck, and these teams should continue to succeed inside their conference. Add in home favoritism and the results have been rather phenomenal over a nice nine-year span, as you can see. This angle had a great week in Week 8 going 5-2 ATS, and there as three qualifiers this week in Oklahoma State -14, Oregon -36½ and Penn State -5, as well as Alabama -4½ next week.
Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road game (110-80-1, 57.9% ATS since 2005): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially when the second game is against a divisional opponent that they are very familiar with.. This angle lost its only play in Week 8, but has five more qualifiers thus week, one of which clashes with a previous qualifier (Illinois +5 at Penn State), one repeat trender in Boston College +7 and three new ones in Memphis +28½, NC State +19½ and SMU +3½.
One of our favorite angles this season has been playing against favorites that were underdogs in their last two or three games, as these teams oftentimes implode when they are suddenly cast in the favorite role. This week, our feature angle shifts gears a bit and takes a look at favorites that are used to that role, more specifically those that have been favored at least five consecutive games coming in.
Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last five games (112-80-6, 58.3% ATS since 2005): You obviously have to be a good team to be favored so many consecutive weeks, so it stands to reason that these teams would fare better when favored again, especially when playing at home. Playing familiar conference opponents has only added to the success. Granted, this is one of our few angles that is less than 59 percent, but the large sampling nicely compensates for that. There are three qualifying plays this week: Notre Dame -20½, Penn State -5 and Texas A&M -11½. For the record, an early line of the huge LSU vs. Alabama tilt on November 5 is widely available with the top two teams in the country both being on a bye this week, and Alabama -4½ also qualifies under this angle.
Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last six games (81-56-2, 59.1% ATS since 2005): Add another game to the favored streak and the ATS winning percentage jumps to over 59 percent over a still decent sized sampling. All four teams from the previous angle (including Alabama next week) also qualify for this trend.
Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last seven games (52-34-1, 60.5% ATS since 2005): Adding yet one more game gets us over the magical 60 percent mark, granted over just 86 decisions. The only one of the four qualifiers (including Alabama) from the previous angles that does not quality for this one is Penn State.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last two games (191-132-2, 59.1% ATS since 2005): This is the reverse off the previous angles this week. These are oftentimes teams that are not used to being favored, and this record suggests that they usually cannot handle the pressure of being expected to win. Betting against these favorites in unchartered territory would have produced a nice profit of +45.8 units since 2005 based on one unit per play at odds of -110. This angle was off to a 10-0 ATS start this season and is still a solid 17-11, 60.7 percent year-to-date. There are five qualifying plays this week: Mississippi +10½ at Auburn, Boston College +7 at Maryland, Wyoming +17½ at San Diego State, Kansas +28 at Texas and Oregon State +5 at Utah.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games (103-65-1, 61.3% ATS since 2005): Tack on a third straight game as an underdog coming into this game to our previous angle and the winning percentage jumps to over 61 percent over a fairly nice sized sampling. There are four qualifiers this week, which is every team from the previous trend except Kansas.
Play on any conference home favorite coming off of six straight up wins or more (124-69-3, 64.2% ATS since 2002): Yes, you read that correctly, this is an angle that has gone 64 percent over 193 decisions going all the way back to 2002, and unlike most of our other angles, this system is not contrarian! A team that wins six straight games in the same season is usually a good team, as that is enough wins where not all the victories can be attributed to luck, and these teams should continue to succeed inside their conference. Add in home favoritism and the results have been rather phenomenal over a nice nine-year span, as you can see. This angle had a great week in Week 8 going 5-2 ATS, and there as three qualifiers this week in Oklahoma State -14, Oregon -36½ and Penn State -5, as well as Alabama -4½ next week.
Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road game (110-80-1, 57.9% ATS since 2005): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially when the second game is against a divisional opponent that they are very familiar with.. This angle lost its only play in Week 8, but has five more qualifiers thus week, one of which clashes with a previous qualifier (Illinois +5 at Penn State), one repeat trender in Boston College +7 and three new ones in Memphis +28½, NC State +19½ and SMU +3½.
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