Tuesday 11/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#4 Mitole's Wish	He was flat with better last time around, but something like the two-back run might be a better fit with this kind of group. Chases the pace and gets past?
#2 Sailingtheislands	Not sure he has a lot of upside right now, but he has a pretty established baseline effort that makes him the one to beat while racing right up top throughout.
#3 Pepper Pete	Suppose there is some chance that he'll flash some pace and get brave while facing the cheapest crew he has seen to date, but he has stopped pretty hard in all three starts. Tough to trust even in a bad race.
Race Summary	Mitole's Wish might have found the right group today after an even and unthreatening effort with special weight company last time out -- there isn't a whole lot to beat in here.

Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#5 Soul Coaxing	One of his better recent efforts would probably be good enough to land this one, and he's quick enough to find a good spot right up on the splits. Dangerous.
#1 Moreau	He'll likely have a go of it from the inside while searching for a third consecutive win, and his recent form may not be a total fluke with some heavy hitting names buried back on his page.
#4 Ben Diesel	Would almost be more interested to see him turn back to a sprint right now based on how his recent form looks, but he's a player in this group going long again either way. Seems capable enough.
Race Summary	Soul Coaxing should be able to land this if he is able to transfer one of his better recent races to the local surface, and I think the top pair are going to sort this out one way or another.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#1 My Daniela	Think she's going to get a bit overlooked with this crew, and she has always been pretty reliable when racing locally. Could see her finding a sweet spot in behind a couple potential pace players drawn outside.
#6 Cowgirl Sara	Nothing wrong with the graduation run at second asking, and she draws outside the other potential speed today. Looks like the one to beat from the attack spot.
#5 Val's Twinstar	Mild worry about her taking some early heat from 'Sara, but she's obviously capable of something better than she showed last time out.
Race Summary	My Daniela could draft into a pretty perfect spot while in behind a couple pace players, and I like the fact that her form woke up just a little bit when getting back on the local surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#5 METEOR SHOWER (9-2)	Starts fresh for 20-percent claim barn in evenly-matched field.
#3 CHROME’S BEST COPY (4	Good first gear, willing 3-wide try when she didn’t make lead last out.
#4 INFINITE LOVE (7-2)	Rallied for second in 4 of last 6 starts, the latest at one mile.
Race Summary	There wasn’t much separating most of the contenders when they met at Emerald Downs recently. METEOR SHOWER, the most heavily-bet of the group, rallied into a fast pace to earn minor awards in her last two starts. She’s in top form and can move up for a trainer-jockey duo in the midst of a 14-for-44 run that produced a positive return on investment. Bet to win and place and play a 3-4-5 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#5 CHRISTINA’S CANDY (5-	Has some question marks but has the speed to overcome them.
#2 BOHEMIAN JIGGLES (7-2)	Will be running late, left too much work to do it latest start.
#4 MUMBLES BROCKMAN (9-2)	Won at Golden Gate, ran second at Emerald Downs this year.
Race Summary	CHRISTINA’S CANDY, idle seven months since she was claimed for twice this much off a near miss at Turf Paradise, appears an all-or-nothing type. She was scratched at the gate in a scheduled September return at Canterbury Park, but she has the speed to go the distance and is worth a flat win bet at anywhere near her 5-1 morning line. Also play a 5/2,4/ALL trifecta.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#8 SAYUCAN (6-1)	Impressed in debut, worked in :47-1/5 since arrival, today’s Best Bet.
#7 IMA MARGARITA GIRL (5-1)	Led to stretch in last three starts, held for minor awards.
#5 DEBBIE Z (8-1)	Prepped at Santa Anita, zipped 3F in :35-3/5 from gate since arrival here.
Race Summary	SAYUCAN was unlucky to not win in her debut against Iowa-bred rivals at Prairie Meadows. She was carried inward at the break and forced to take back to last to avoid hitting the rail. She advanced steadily on the inside, swung widest on the turn and had all the momentum in mid-track, only to be denied by the MSW-dropping winner. Bet to win and place and play 8-4, 8-5 and 8-7 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 3	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5) * PICK 6 WITH CARRYOVER ($1 Minimum: Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 1:16P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 1, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HONOR AMONG MEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MASS APPEAL: Hors e had a bullet workout within the last seven days. SON OF DARKNESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CAPTAINOFMYHEART: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. GONNA BE DANCING: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
5	HONOR AMONG MEN	2/1	5/1
3	MASS APPEAL	5/1	7/1
7	SON OF DARKNESS	5/2	7/1
2	CAPTAINOFMYHEART	8/1	8/1
6	GONNA BE DANCING	12/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	GONNA BE DANCING	6	12/1	Front-runner	73	74	79.8	63.2	55.2
7	SON OF DARKNESS	7	5/2	Front-runner	79	77	77.6	71.0	64.0
5	HONOR AMONG MEN	5	2/1	Front-runner	79	77	77.2	66.8	63.3
4	MAX FOSTER	4	8/1	Front-runner	80	63	63.0	63.8	52.8
3	MASS APPEAL	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	73	69.6	67.4	58.4
1	ABE HONESTLY	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	73	65.6	58.2	51.7
2	CAPTAINOFMYHEART	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	76	58.4	67.2	58.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 2:10P
IND - R1 - FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BERLONE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BERLONE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HUMBLE WARRIOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ANCHOR MANNE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distanc e/surface.
5	BERLONE	4/1	7/2
3	HUMBLE WARRIOR	5/2	7/1
2	ANCHOR MANNE	6/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	BERLONE	5	4/1	Front-runner	82	81	94.7	74.0	69.0
3	HUMBLE WARRIOR	3	5/2	Stalker	83	88	63.4	72.4	66.9
2	ANCHOR MANNE	2	6/1	Stalker	82	77	61.4	73.4	67.4
7	CLASSIC EXPRESS	7	7/2	Stalker	80	75	49.4	72.1	62.6
4	REVS MEDAL	4	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	82	67.8	65.8	51.8
1	SILENT SONATA	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	67	43.2	72.8	62.3
8	TOUR THE MOON	8	10/1	Trailer	82	69	31.8	66.5	56.0
6	LOONY	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	71	41.3	69.7	58.7
9	ICE EXPRESS	9	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	81	77	2.8	55.9	41.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 12:32pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#5 JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT (ML=6/1)
#2 RUSTYS GFIVEFIFTY (ML=5/1)
#6 PYLON (ML=5/1)


JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT - I really like sprint horses that make a fast turnaround. Gonzalez and Ramirez partnered with one another are a horse gambler's friend. RUSTYS GFIVEFIFTY - This thoroughbred could be tough this race, especially since Rivera rode last race out and now should be better acquainted with this one. When a trainer works a campaigner at a distance equal to or longer than today's race, the horse should be fit. I like to invest in this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid effort within the last 30 days. PYLON - A winning pct the likes of what Martinez and Rodriguez have achieved together is terrific. This pony coming off a solid performance in the last month is a win candidate in my book. Have to like the way Rodriguez has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JW'STRICKYMISCHIEF (ML=3/5), #7 THUNDERING MARCH (ML=4/1), #1 SHADOW BOX (ML=6/1),

JW'STRICKYMISCHIEF - This gelding is always in the mix, but just doesn't win. Hard to wager on him on the win end. THUNDERING MARCH - When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to notch a much better speed fig than last race out to compete in this dirt sprint. SHADOW BOX - Speed kills. Plenty of early speed in this event compromises this horse's efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $77000 Class Rating: 79

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 5, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MARK THE WINNER 2/1
# 5 MARK IT DOWN 8/1
# 1 NOT TO FANCY 15/1

My selection for this event is MARK THE WINNER. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. Had one of the best speed figs of this group of horses in this race in her last affair. Formidable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a solid contender. MARK IT DOWN - She has been racing admirably recently while recording sharp speed figures. Should definitely be carefully examined in here if only for the competitive Equibase speed fig garnered in the last competition. NOT TO FANCY - Has some positive handicapping angles which make this entrant a play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #2 - Post: 1:12pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,400 Class Rating: 48

Rating:

#7 A P'S RUNAWAY DIVA (ML=7/2)


A P'S RUNAWAY DIVA - Last time around the track was at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in a race with a class number of 59. Dropping considerably in Equibase class figure this time around puts her in a solid position in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BEAUTIFUL CHARADE (ML=7/5), #2 SHADY BABY (ML=9/2), #6 LACY QUEEN (ML=6/1),

BEAUTIFUL CHARADE - September 17th is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. SHADY BABY - Mahoning Valley Race Course has not been kind to this mount. LACY QUEEN - Didn't look so good last time out. Probably won't make an impact in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 A P'S RUNAWAY DIVA on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $43520 Class Rating: 64

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 MACLEAN'S LULLABY 2/1
# 3 CABARYN 20/1
# 5 WINTER WAVES 9/2

My choice in this competition is MACLEAN'S LULLABY. Could provide positive returns based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 53. Her chances to score are much better today facing this softer bunch. Has strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. CABARYN - She should have a strong outing versus this less demanding lot. Will most likely go to the front end and might never look back.

[rocky57]

Steve Merril CFB
Miami Ohio -12
Miami Ohio/Ball State Under 49

[rocky57]

Don Buster NHL
Ottawa/Buffalo Over 6 [-115]

[rocky57]

Jesse Schule NHL
Bruins +1 goal [-160]