Thursday 11/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #4

#8 Streaking	She woke up and stuck around a bit better when dropped in for a tag for the first time, and she's drawn well to be on the attack early. Think she can clear off a couple lengths into the lane and hold.
#9 High Summer	She's another logical forward player, as she's getting in for a tag today and might find it easier to hang tough late against this kind of crew. One of the ones.
#1 Lady Riley	Little bit interested in having her on the plays with the two logical runners up top, as she cuts back for the new barn and might have a little finishing ability at this trip against a cheap bunch?
Race Summary	Streaking and High Summer seem like the right pair in this one, but Streaking might offer a slightly better number.

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#5 Big Dreaming	He has been in the frame with some tough customers, and he should get overlooked against this group today. Seems to be coming into this OK.
#4 Chasing the Crown	He's obviously capable of better after the dull run at Keeneland last time out, and he landed a couple of graded-stakes placings over this surface earlier in the year. Lots to like except maybe the price, but I also wouldn't argue with anyone who wanted him to prove it today after that last one.
#1 Wadsworth	He's back off the bench with some solid 2023 running lines on the page -- Gigante and Talk of the Nation would be tough against this kind of group -- but could be up against it if no real pace materializes here.
Race Summary	Look again if this comes over after projected rains on Wednesday -- it becomes an entirely different but equally fun race on the main track. Have to think it's one of the AEs or Mr. Wireless if it comes to that.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#7 Sashay Away	She has been hinting at a little bit of talent early in her career, and there's nothing wrong with her trying an allowance spot today after catching Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf runner-up May Day Ready in her last two tries. Let's see -- this one is within two lengths of 'Ready, and 'Ready was within a length of legit Grade I Euro star Lake Victoria last weekend. She's an absolutely deserving chalk on the drop.
#3 Sweet Treasure	With all the platitudes about company lines for the top choice out of the way, this one is a real danger. She showed pace in the debut score, and I'm not sure she's going to take a ton of early heat while running for an ace front-end rider.
#5 Slow No Mo	Think she has a bit of mild price appeal after graduating at 19/1 in the Horseshoe Indianapolis debut run in September. She'll be overlooked with some mild turf pedigree to her name.
Race Summary	Sashay Away should appreciate this softer spot after chasing a serious stakes type in her last couple tries, and I'm excited to see if she can stamp herself a slight cut above this kind of group today with sights on something bigger next year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#2 MY HONEYBUNCH (5-1)	Tries to follow similar path to her last victory, carries more weight.
#5 WARRIOR’S DEFENSE (3-	Ran second from on and off the pace in PA-bred allowance sprints.
#1 BESS’ CANDY (5-1)	Has speed, rail and blinkers for her first start on conventional dirt.
Race Summary	New Jersey invader MY HONEYBUNCH ran her best race the last time she cut back from a route to a sprint off similar rest. She wore down the 8-to-5 pace setter and edged away wearing blinkers for the second time. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-5 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #2

#8 JOYS OF SUMMER (5-1)	Steady form, ideal set-up could produce repeat win at decent price.
#4 MY VANILLA (6-1)	Awakened two starts back despite troubled start, gets in light-weighted.
#5 PEACHYNESS (5-2)	‘'Responded when asked’ to survive duel before deep closers passed by.
Race Summary	Several 2yo fillies in here made big moves forward in recent starts. JOYS OF SUMMER isn’t one of them, but she has been consistent through her maiden win last out. She makes her first start on conventional dirt, but if her synthetic track form carries over, she should sit a good stalking trip with plenty of pace to run at. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #3

#9 EACHPEACHPEARPLUM (3-1)	Goes turf-to-dirt on class drop, barn does well with these types.
#3 SUNSHINE HAZEL (5-1)	Can be excused for gate antics in well-bet debut, enters new barn.
#7 STROKE OF LUCK (6-1)	Showed speed and back-pedaled in debut, shortens up from 6F to 5F.
Race Summary	EACHPEACHPEARPLUM is the lone entrant not to have run on the main track, but she is also the only one not to get beat by 14-plus lengths in her last start. She showed enough in a pair of MSW turf sprints to be a major player in here for a high-percentage barn with class droppers. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 870 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 5:35P
QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * QUICK LADYS CASH: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. PATRIOT MOUNTAIN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. APOLLITICAL FROSTY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HESA CRAZY STORM: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KARL ON CHARLES: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	QUICK LADYS CASH	6/1	6/1
5	PATRIOT MOUNTAIN	8/5	6/1
3	APOLLITICAL FROSTY	12/1	6/1
6	HESA CRAZY STORM	8/1	9/1
1	KARLON CHARLES	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	KARLON CHARLES	1	5/2	Average	67	63	4.5	0.0	0.0
2	QUICK LADYS CASH	2	6/1	Average	76	65	5.9	0.0	0.0
3	APOLLITICAL FROSTY	3	12/1	Slow	71	70	6.1	0.0	0.0
4	ZEVI BLUE	4	3/1	Average	64	65	4.1	0.0	0.0
5	PATRIOT MOUNTAIN	5	8/5	Fast	66	64	3.1	0.0	0.0
6	HESA CRAZY STORM	6	8/1	Average	68	65	4.4	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race 9	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 10:22
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT NECESSARY TO TAKE THIS RACE OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 1 MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. BULSARA is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * NO MAS TEQUILA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Hor se has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TALKIN CADEE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Ho rse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	NO MAS TEQUILA	9/5	5/2
1	TALKIN CADEE	9/2	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	BIG UN	5	3/1	Front-runner	87	81	65.1	70.6	61.6
2	KRIK TAK	2	7/2	Front-runner	78	75	51.1	65.6	55.6
1	TALKIN CADEE	1	9/2	Stalker	91	83	63.0	79.0	72.5
3	WILBURNSCLASSYLADY	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	80	75.2	75.6	69.1
4	NO MAS TEQUILA	4	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	97	94	73.2	87.0	85.0
6	BULSARA	6	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	74	74.3	73.3	65.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,500 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#8 COUNTRY RUCKUS (ML=4/1)
#6 GLOBAL HYSTERIA (ML=3/1)


COUNTRY RUCKUS - Last race was at Presque Isle Downs in a race with a class rating of 81. Dropping a significant amount in class rating in today's event puts him in a solid position in this event. Trainer, Maddox, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. This gelding's last speed rating registered on Oct 17th is tops in last race speed ratings. Last ran at Presque Isle Downs and finished fourth. Reviewing his PP lines, I see he was close at the end, within five of the winner. GLOBAL HYSTERIA - It looks like Houghton had to know this gelding on October 21st when riding him for the first time. Back aboard again today. According to well-known handicapping experts, the stalking-type of race horse is one of the most consistent bets in racing. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least 5 class pts like this one did last race out. I believe he'll be competitive at this class level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 A PRAYER FOR KIDS (ML=7/2), #7 STORMED OUT (ML=5/1), #3 SHOWTIME BOY (ML=6/1),

A PRAYER FOR KIDS - Hard to play a questionable contender that cannot even prove victorious one time in his last ten races. Looked like he was in good form on Oct 8th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. Hard to put any money on this gelding on the front end. Likes to end up on the board though. STORMED OUT - Unlikely that the speed figure he notched on Sep 11th will be enough in this clash. SHOWTIME BOY - He probably can't repeat that last stretch drive effort and win against this field. When examining today's class rating, he will have to register a much better speed figure than last time out to vie in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 COUNTRY RUCKUS to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 54

IND - R1 - FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 CATRINA PARTNER 6/1
# 3 SECRET SAVIOR 5/1
# 5 KENNEDY HEIGHTS 7/5

CATRINA PARTNER is my choice. Must be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last race. SECRET SAVIOR - Has some positive angles which make this one a bet. Has performed very well recently in route races, posting a nifty 50 avg Equibase speed fig. KENNEDY HEIGHTS - Is a very solid contender based on numbers earned as of late under today's conditions. The speed figure of 60 from her most recent race looks solid in here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 59

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 7 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. 4# A CLASFS.$4,000 Y DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 GRAND MACALLAN 15/1
# 3 WICKED WEDNESDAY 2/1
# 2 SENOR TESTAFERRO 3/1

GRAND MACALLAN has a respectable shot to take this contest and is a respectable value bet given the line at 15/1. He should definitely be given a shot given the strong speed numbers. Tapia has him trained soundly to break promptly out of the starting gate. The price could be just right on this one. WICKED WEDNESDAY - He has a good opportunity in this contest as conditioner, Ramirez, has strong win rate with horses going this distance. The Equibase speed fig of 56 from his latest race looks solid in here. SENOR TESTAFERRO - The speed rating of 56 from his latest race looks very strong in here. Has been travelling very well and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Aqueduct - Race #3 - Post: 1:10pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $85,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#4 BUSTIN BAY (ML=6/1)
#8 LAVON (ML=15/1)


BUSTIN BAY - Looking at the information on all of these horses, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long hard look at this one. This mare has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Rice. Better be wary of this angle. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is up against an easier group than last time out at Saratoga. LAVON - Comes out of a last affair against 'open' company on October 9th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. The ROI when Maragh and Coffey hook up is tremendous. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a solid race is a good signal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MAGGY'S PALACE (ML=7/2), #9 MOSIENKO (ML=4/1), #3 MALU (ML=9/2),

MAGGY'S PALACE - Doesn't look to be worth 7/2 in today's event. Pass on her this time. MOSIENKO - The sixth place finish in the last race was not the greatest. MALU - If she goes off anywhere close to the M/L odds of 9/2, I'll have to pass.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BUSTIN BAY - This fine animal is getting the medication Lasix, this time out. Look for a good one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 BUSTIN BAY to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 8 with [1,3,9] Total Cost: $3