Saturday 11/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Race of the Week: Red Smith at Aqueduct | Saturday, 11/9

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November 6, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:

The post-Breeders' Cup run to the end of the season begins in earnest this weekend. Aqueduct's grass course has benefitted from unseasonably mild weather and will be front and center with the featured $300,000 Grade 2 Red Smith on Saturday. The 1-3/8 miles contest has honored the legendary sports and turf writer since its 1960 inaugural.

Field Depth:

Grade 1 winner ADHAMO is joined by Grade 2 winners INTEGRATION, CITY MAN and MASTER PIECE, the latter defending champion in the Red Smith. PIONEERING SPIRIT and LIMITED LIABILITY are Grade 2-placed at this level. Arguably, ADHAMO and MASTER PIECE have kept the strongest company lines consistently.

Pace:

Extremely slow projection with uncertainty who assumes the front. CURBSTONE from the rail makes the most sense having shown speed sporadically. You won't want to be too far back in this one.

Our Eyes:

Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-CURBSTONE: Off 6 straight losses and an 0-8 lifetime mark on turf, it would be natural to look elsewhere. But he could land some pace edge and 4-time Red Smith winner John Velazquez is just 1 shy of Angel Cordero's career mark for victories in this race. Still, demand longshot odds.

#2-INTEGRATION: Winner of the Hill Prince over this course around this time a year ago, the now 4-year-old's current season includes a Grade 1 Arlington Million runner-up. Trainer Shug McGaughey's 4 Red Smith wins are tops all-time. Flavien Prat, coming off a big Breeders' Cup weekend, takes over the mount.

#3-PIONEERING SPIRIT: Fresh off a $62,500 claim by Rick Dutrow off of Linda Rice, this 5-year-old looks to snap an 0-10 mark this year and 0-8 career record on the Aqueduct grass. Won't be surprised if he's used in the early pace from a favorable draw by Manny Franco.

#4-CITY MAN: New York-bred has banked $1.3 million, including Gulfstream's Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale, so the move back to open company is within his grasp. Trainer Christophe Clement is a 2-time Red Smith winner and it's hard to argue with 7 exacta finishes in 11 starts over this turf course.

#5-LIMITED LIABILITY: Stretched out to win the 2-1/16 miles Nashville Gold Cup at Kentucky Downs last out for 4-time Red Smith winner Shug McGaughey. Frankie Dettori was aboard for the first time that day and returns to the saddle. Off the board in 3 prior Aqueduct turf tries, including a belated rally to be an unthreatening sixth in this race last year.

#6-ADHAMO: Millionaire 6-year-old hasn't won since the summer of 2022, dropping 9 straight. Trainer Chad Brown, a 3-time winner of this race, catapults back to NY after Sierra Leone's $7M Breeders' Cup Classic win at Del Mar. First-time gelding turns to Irad Ortiz Jr. with regular riders Prat and Dettori riding other rivals on Saturday.

#7-DAUNT: Seventh in this race at 40-1 a year ago and fourth in the '22 renewal, he's lost 14 in a row dating back more than 2 years. His last 5 tries on the Big A lawn have all been off-the-board finishes.

#8-MASTER PIECE: Seeks to become the third 2-time winner of the Red Smith, joining Drumtop (1971-'72) and Boisterous (2011-'12). Could also make some history while matching Yankee Affair (1990) as the only 8-year-olds to score in this race. Versatile running style could come in handy with this slow pace projection, and his 2-for-2 local turf mark also includes May's Grade 2 Fort Marcy before a 3-race California swing this summer.

#9-REBEL RED: Trainer Cherie DeVaux rides momentum from a Breeders' Cup Mile victory from More Than Looks at Del Mar last Saturday as Rebel Red seeks his first stakes win. He's notched 3 victories in his last 4, but was no threat in the Bernard Baruch in his only stakes attempt to date. Frankel colt has yet to run beyond 9F, which will test how long he can sustain his closing kick.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:

MASTER PIECE is proven over the course and trip and should be able to secure a beneficial trip that gets a jump on the deep closers.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:

CURBSTONE has some pace edge to nurse the front and perhaps hold for a share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):

$50 exacta box INTEGRATION and MASTER PIECE ($100).

[rocky57]

Teddy Covers CFB Mississippi State +24

[rocky57]

Marco D'Angelo CFB Utah +4.5

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 5 (Races 4-8) / Super Hi-5
Maiden Claiming $100,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $62,000 • Post: 2:28P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $100,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SUMMONYOURCOURAGE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUMMONYOURCOURAGE: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. SHORTSTOP: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LOU'S LEGACY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HANGIN IN THERE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	SUMMONYOURCOURAGE	5/2	5/1
5	SHORTSTOP	9/5	7/1
7	LOU'S LEGACY	8/1	7/1
6	HANGIN IN THERE	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	SUMMONYOURCOURAGE	3	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	86	77	86.5	70.2	60.7
5	SHORTSTOP	5	9/5	Stalker	88	75	76.5	76.3	71.8
6	HANGIN IN THERE	6	7/2	Trailer	93	85	38.0	67.3	62.8
7	LOU'S LEGACY	7	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	89	81	58.8	79.2	75.7
2	GENO'S MYTH	2	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	88	86	37.9	63.5	56.0
1	TEEN IDOL	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	57.5	53.6	41.6
4	ADDED MISCHIEF	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	52.1	64.5	53.5

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Allowance - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $27400 Class Rating: 76

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 9 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 BEATIFUL KARLA 9/2
# 1 TESHIMA 5/2
# 8 IHEARTRAINACOMN 5/1

BEATIFUL KARLA should be supported as the bet in here. Solid average Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races make this racer a solid choice. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this pony look decent in this contest. TESHIMA - With a very strong 68 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this competition. She has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the best in this field.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts






Woodbine - Race #3 - Post: 2:19pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $111,300 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#2 SPELLCHECK (ML=6/1)


SPELLCHECK - Looking over this filly's PPs I see that the last time she tried this distance she got a fig that would be good enough to win today's race. Took a big class drop last out, and I think she may have needed it. Attard enters her at a similar class level today. I'd expect an improved performance. Carrying 5 pounds less this race. Trainer has her in a good spot.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 EARHART (FR) (ML=8/5), #6 CLEARWATER BEACH (ML=3/1), #1 SHE LOVES (ML=4/1),

EARHART (FR) - Not much value on this horse at the likely odds of 8/5. CLEARWATER BEACH - Don't think that this filly has value at 3/1 this time around. SHE LOVES - I prognosticate disappointment for this animal in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 SPELLCHECK on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 2	Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 46 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 3:10P
FOR NATIVE TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 116 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. RADIOLOGO is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RADIOLOGO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within th e last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	RADIOLOGO	2/1	1/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	RADIOLOGO	3	2/1	Front-runner	42	37	46.1	31.2	29.2
5	GALAN BORICUA	5	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: EL INMACULADO (20/1) [Jockey: Zambrana Jadiel - Trainer: Pena Steven], PARTICULADO (7/2) [Jockey: Santiago Javier - Trainer: Grajineres Carlos A], VUELVE JUNIOR F (5/1) [Jockey: Navarro Joshua - Trainer: Velez Kevin].

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 73

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 NITO 4/1
# 7 COSTEENIGHTWELAYACES 3/1
# 4 DUCK DUCK GO 2/1

I've got to go with NITO. Will almost certainly come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved rapidly to the front end recently. A solid 78 avg Equibase class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field. The speed fig of 62 from his last affair looks very good in here. COSTEENIGHTWELAYACES - Will probably be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the affair. Has been travelling solidly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. DUCK DUCK GO - Should expect a much improved effort with the drop. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Gutierrez will probably have this gelding in excellent position to win the race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts






Aqueduct - Race #8 - Post: 3:10pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $150,000 Class Rating: 112 Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship S.

Rating:

#8 GROOMS ALL BIZNESS (ML=6/1)


GROOMS ALL BIZNESS - I like a campaigner that manages to finish in the money as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. He may be way off the pace, but Davis should be whipping him coming home on the way to the winner's circle. I like the hard fact that this gelding's last speed rating, 110, is tops in this field. I seem to always make money betting Duarte horses on the grass. That barn has a solid win pct for this distance/surface.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 SENBEI (ML=5/2), #6 ALOGON (ML=9/2), #12 SHERIFF BIANCO (ML=5/1),

SENBEI - This gelding ran his greatest speed rating in some time on the turf in a sprint event. There may be a performance bounce today. ALOGON - Finished third in his most recent effort with a quite unimpressive speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. SHERIFF BIANCO - You figure that this animal is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently. In the last race this entrant finished fourth. Doesn't look good for his chances this time.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - GROOMS ALL BIZNESS - This gelding's turf figure last race is the tops compared to the last turf figures for the rest of these ponies.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 GROOMS ALL BIZNESS to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [1,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	8 with [1,9] with [1,3,5,9] Total Cost: $6

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Post: 7:44 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$7000 - N/W $1860.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 MASS MONEY 9/5
# 1 SICARIO 7/2
# 6 BARZY 4/1

MASS MONEY is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the handicapping group. This filly getting the win wouldn't be impossible, a chance. Have an instinct this one might take in this race. Appears that this fine animal's running style fits well in this race. Most likely will be there at the finish. SICARIO - This contest could very well be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will prove that. The number crunching team gives this horse a good chance to win this one, class figures are tops in the field of starters. BARZY - The trainer/horse combination numbers point out that this combo are solid in the money finishers when working together. That 72 TrackMaster SR clocked in the last competition puts this nice horse in the mix today.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Pocono Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 5
4	4	BUSY MAKING MONI	6/1	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 21	530.43
1	1	INAMINUTE HANOVER	5/2	Napolitano, Anthony - 16	516.45
7	7	CANTKEEPMIASECRET	12/1	Pantaleano, Jim - 8	485.68
6	6	MACMORRIS HANOVER	3/1	Kakaley, Matt - 21	484.20
2	2	CHAMBA	4/1	Boyd, Braxten - 14	467.07
3	3	KINGPIN HANOVER	10/1	Jackson, Tom - 11	460.53
5	5	THE PRINCE	9/2	Buter, Tyler - 16	454.08
8	8	BEER CHEESE	15/1	Warren, Ridge - 9	436.26

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
9	9	FLYING OFFICER	4/1	Hennessy, Michael R - 16	472.27
2	2	BAY STREET BUDDY	10/1	Gillis, Logan - 9	423.46
4	4	AGRICOLA	8/5	Campbell, J Brandon - 24	423.22
1	1	RETROS MYSTERY	3/1	Kelly, David A - 17	392.76
8	8	DUBAI SEELSTER	8/1	Giesbrecht, Philip - 20	367.26
5	5	KERNEL KELLY	20/1	Brown, Christopher A - 2	365.52
10	AE	IMA MOMAS BOY	N/A	Sobey, Nathan K - 8	359.10
3	3	NICOTIME	10/1	Redwood, Tyler R - 14	319.29
7	7	GONNA FUNKU UP	6/1	Gagne, Jean Francois - 7	295.50
6	6	TRIPLE LANE MISTER	12/1	Hoerdt, Kelly O - 11	276.07

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Cumberland Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 10:55 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$4200 - FM NON-WINNERS $1,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 POLYESTER 3/1
# 6 MOONLIGHTANDROSES 6/1
# 3 ROJAS BLUE CHIP 4/1

POLYESTER looks very nice to best this race. Comes into this outing with really good TrackMaster class statistics relative to the field of horses - take a good look. Tough to pass on this mare with cagey Hall in the bike. Major player for the score. Has one of the most respectable win percentages in the field of horses and may be able to add to those percentages today. MOONLIGHTANDROSES - Has one of the best win clips in the field and may be able to add to those percentages in this race. The consortium keenly points out that when Deslandes trains this contender, the odds of finishing hitting the board go way up. ROJAS BLUE CHIP - Could most likely handle this grouping given the 72 TrackMaster SR earned in her last gathering.

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Hotlist - November 9


Nov. 07, 2024

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3rd race [25000B, 6F] – (6) Spring Magic finished second the last two times that she was in for a tag and got claimed both times. In October she set the pace before getting the place spot. (7) Irish Jackson was a winner for a $40,000 tag in April. (2) Street Jam was claimed from her last two races for $62,500 and then $35,000 and finished third and then second. (8) Spiritual Lady ran his best speed figure and has early speed.

4th race [MY, Md 30000, 1 mi] – (8) Lu’s Redemption missed the win by a nose the last time she ran a mile on the main track. (7) Dream On Cara was second and third twice in her most recent three races at this level. (9) Watch Over Me was a neck behind the top choice in August at Saratoga and has been off since then. (1) Sherman’s Marlin drops in for a tag in her second race and moves from turf to dirt.

7th race [Alw 50000s, 7F] – (9) Magnificent Mile (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 7-2 and made up ground to finish third at this level and comes back in eight days. (2) Best Bet won 2 out of 3 in the Spring moving from the N2L to the N3L. He has been off since May and comes back as a new gelding. (1) Vinsanity won the N2L condition for a $25,000 tag. (4) I See You Lookin won two races in a row moving from a maiden to the N2L.

9th race [Red Smith (G2), 1 3/8 mi TURF] – (8) Master Piece won this race last year and Jose Lezcano gets back on board. Last time he was a close third in the John Henry (G2) at Santa Anita. (2) Integration was second in the Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs in August. (9) Rebel Red has two allowance wins recently after starting her career in England and is now with the hot trainer Cherie DeVaux. (4) City Man has 11 victories and $1.3 million in earnings in his career. He is a Grade 2 winner along with a few NY-bred stakes.

Best bets: Spring Magic (3rd); Lu’s Redemption (4th). Best value: Magnificent Mile (7th); Master Piece (9th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 2-4 and includes the Tempted ? 5 with 2, 6, 7, 8 with 1, 7, 8, 9 = $16.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(9)	Magnificent Mile	C on 11/1	7	He comes back in eight days after running third.