Saturday 11/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Vegas Steam Line


Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: VIRGINIA TECH (CFB) +6.5 over Clemson

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tony Sacco


TONY SACCO'S FREE PLAY for SATURDAY: TAKE the UTEP MINERS (NCAAF)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Razor Sharp


YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: TENNESSEE (CFB) -24.5 over Mississippi St

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Atlantic Sports


Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Oregon State Beavers - 3

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Big Mike's Sports Network


Saturday, November 9, 2024

College Football
201. UNLV -12.5 (6 PT / 9 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye Sports


Early Saturday's Free Pick: Marshall Thundering Herd - 13 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes Syndicate


Free Selection for Early Saturday: Connecticut Huskies - 7 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hollywood Anthony


Your Free Play From Hollywood


MLB Take CFB Navy -3

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Navy/South Florida over 57.5

No analysis provided.

[ConleyPicks]

Alex Smart

Liberty is coming off consecutive outright losses as favorite and are taking alot of heat for underperforming this season. The Flames have the talent to really lambast the home side and now in desperation mode , as they look for a decent bowl invite that could easily be used to ignite this group into playing to their potential.

Middle Tennessee State is on a 0-9 ATS run in conference play when coming off an upset victory and 0-10 ATS/SU when coming off an outright upset win .

Play on Liberty-11 -109 to cover

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Liberty Middle Tennessee Over 53.5 -130

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Saturday NHL Free play. My selection is on Dallas+100 over Winnipeg at 3:05 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Stars as they look to get in the way of the red hot Jets on Saturday afternoon. Winnipeg is off to a ridiculous 13-1 start and most recently posted a 1-0 victory over Colorado on Thursday. Note that Dallas will be looking to avenge a shutout defeat at the hands of Winnipeg the last time these two teams met last April. The Stars are 8-4 to open the campaign after snapping a two-game skid with a win over Chicago on Thursday. Dallas will be off on Sunday before returning to the ice to wrap up a two-game road trip on Monday in Pittsburgh. We'll back the Stars to pull off the minor upset here. Take Dallas.

[ConleyPicks]

John Ryan

Michigan vs Indiana
3:30 ET | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
5-Unit Bet on the Michigan Wolverines priced as 14-point underdogs.

Coming off a 5-2 ATS NFL Sunday and 10-UNIT MAX Bet goes tonight in MNF action. 7-2 ATS this season with 10-UNIT MAX Bets!

Live Betting Strategy: The markets opened this game with Indiana priced as a 14-point favorite and the line is likely to grind higher throughout the week. My suggestion is to bet 50% of my 5-Unit betting amount (3 to 10-Unit gradings and 10-UNITS are 7-2 ATS for 74% winning bets in the NFL and CFB combined this season and 67% ATS over more than 5 seasons) on Monday and then use the remaining 50% to add on Indiana if Michigan scores the first points of the game, retakes the lead during the first half of action, or the line drops to 9.5 or fewer-points.

The Hoosiers have Bloomington Rocking with Excitement

Indiana has had a historic season and as a fan of college football nothing makes me more in love with the game than teams just like Indiana. The Hoosiers do not have a 100,000+ stadium of fanatic fans but they do have one half as big that seats 52,626 fans and rank as the 15th largest of the 18 teams in the Big Ten Conference.

Under first year head coach, Curt Cignetti, he has put together a terrific team filled with players who simply love and play hard for all 60 minutes. They are in position to win their third Big ten Conference Championship in their 126-year program history. Indiana's undefeated season is a remarkable achievement, especially considering their previous 126 seasons. The Hoosiers have never started a season 9-0, making this one of the best starts in program history.

Michigan Wolverines (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten)

Offensive Stats: 414 total yards per game

Defensive Stats: 11.9 points allowed per game (2nd in Big Ten)

Key Player: QB J.J. McCarthy (732 yards, 5 TDs, 6 INTs)

Injuries: None reported

Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten)

Offensive Stats: 46.5 points per game (2nd in nation)

Defensive Stats: 14.1 points allowed per game (2nd in Big Ten)

Key Player: QB Kurtis Rourke (2,204 yards, 19 TDs, 3 INTs)

Injuries: None reported

Key Matchups

Michigan's Pass Rush vs. Indiana's Offensive Line: Michigan's elite pass rushers will test Indiana's offensive line, which has allowed 8 sacks this season.

Indiana's Rushing Attack vs. Michigan's Run Defense: Indiana's Justice Ellison (669 yards, 9 TDs) will face Michigan's top-ranked run defense.

Indiana's Air Attack vs. Michigan's Secondary: Indiana's Elijah Sarratt (649 yards, 5 TDs) will challenge Michigan's secondary, which has allowed long touchdown passes in recent games.

The Meaningful Situational Angles

Indiana finally got the attention of the pollsters and jumped 5 spots to No. 8 however that is not the best of news from an analytical view. Teams that jumped higher by five or more spots in the current polls and the current game taking place from week 9 to the end of the season have gone 237-143 SU (62%) and 166-203-11 ATS for 45% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. Since 2015 these juggernauts have tended to fall a bit flat going 96-59 SU (62%) and 63-86-6 ATS for 58% winning bets. However, teams that jumped five or more spots in the polls, playing at home, and priced as a double-digit favorite from week 9 on out to the end of the season have gone 42-5 SU (89.4%) and 21-25-1 ATS for 46% last 25 seasons. So, the jump in the polls does not correlate all that well to the game results based on the “P-Value”.

Teams, like Indiana, playing from week 9 on out to the end of the season that have an offensive to defensive efficiency differential of –8 or lower, playing at home, and are undefeated have gone 90-13 SU (87%) and 58-39-5 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. if the opponent is not ranked our undefeated teams have gone 71-5 SU (83.4%) and 45-27-3 for 63% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Drilling deeper into the database we learn that our undefeated teams have gone 17-0 SU (100%) and 11-5-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 25 seasons if the foe is coming off a home loss.

From the Predictive Models

The Hoosiers have been dominant this season, outscoring opponents by a combined 372-113 and lead the Nig ten with the most efficient offensive posting a 10.23 yards-per-point ratio. This simply means on average Indiana puts up one point for every 10 yards they have gained this season. The Michigan defense has the fifth worst defensive efficiency ratio at 14.79 i the Big Ten and this is a significant advantage for the Indiana offense. Indiana has the second-best defensive efficiency ratio posting a 19.19 yards per point allowed while Michigan’s offense ranks 7th-best in the Big Ten at 10.23 yards-per-point. So, Indiana has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this matchup.

The models are projecting that Indiana will score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past home games when Indiana has met or exceeded these projections, they went 17-2 SU (90%) and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If these games were played at Memorial Stadium, they went 11-0 SU and 8-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons.

The Indiana Hoosiers are not a team to fade as they are on a current undefeated winning run that has seen their confidence soar and their play execution far better than what Michigan has done this season.

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on James Madison -14.5 -109

The Key: I like the price we are getting on James Madison today in a very favorable situational spot over Georgia State. The Dukes are off a bye while the Panthers are playing their 4th consecutive road game. This is a rare situation, but teams off a bye facing a team playing their 4th consecutive road game are 7-0 ATS since 2019. Georgia State was down 21 at UConn last game in the 4th quarter before scoring 2 TD in garbage time to only lose by 7, making it a misleading final. They also lost by 15 at Marshall and by 7 at Appalachian State. This is a hungry JMU team trying to chase down a Sun Belt title and it's the best team Georgia State has faced since Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech in non-conference play. It won't go well for the Panthers in this contest. Take James Madison.

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Iowa State-135 1.35% Free play

Iowa State looks to rebound still in line for the conference championship, and they are 13-6-1 ATS following a loss since 2020. Last week's loss to Texas Tech was a bit misleading, and I think they'll get back to it this week. Kansas vs. balanced offenses 0-3 this season, and their run defense is particularly bad ranking 103rd in rushing success rate. Iowa State will be able to run the ball on the road in an atmosphere where they will have plenty of fans. Iowa State also lost the last 2 meetings by one possession and playing with a bit of revenge here.