Sunday 11/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:45 AM

Scott Shapiro: Sunday Spot Plays for Churchill Downs | 11/10

November 10, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

After a strong Saturday card led by Battle of Normandy’s victory in the featured River City (G3), Churchill Downs has another solid Sunday slate, in addition to our up to $10 Money Back Offer available on the Long Island (G3) at Aqueduct. Here are a few horses I like most!

Churchill Downs Race 4:

A wide-open MSW event for 2YO fillies going two-turns on the sod kicks off a middle Pick 4 on this ten-race card where I like #3 Humbled. The daughter of War of Will debuted going 7-furlongs at Kentucky Downs and did not have an ideal voyage at odds of 43-1, yet still finished fifth in a field of 12. I found that to be a great sign since her trainer Robbie Medina is patient with his juveniles evidenced by his 1 for 38-record with 2YO first-time starters over the last five years. Therefore, it was no surprise when she took a step forward in her second start 25 days later in Indiana. The $40K Keeneland January ’23 purchase got out of the gates a little quicker and actually took the lead at 8-1 when they turned for home, but probably moved too soon. She had no answer for the odds-on favorite tiring to finish fourth beaten a little more than two lengths. Now, Luis Saez jumps aboard. I expect him to be aggressive with this filly who should ready to fire her at best and at a pretty good price.

Play: #3 Humbled (10-1 ML)

Churchill Downs Race 5:

I am not as creative in this third-level allowance event at 6-furlongs over the main track. #5 Happy Am I has lost four straight since rattling off three victories in a row last fall/winter for trainer Dallas Stewart. Those starts though all came against better than she encounters in this one, including last out in the $300K Open Mind S. when she broke well, chased the pace of inside speed Run for the Hills, and grinded away third to last-to-first winner, Zeitlos. Now, she has been given nearly two months by Stewart and finds a softer spot where there does not appear to be much early speed signed on. Look for Tyler Gaffalione to make the lead or sit just off the pace with this daughter of Runhappy. She should be very tough to catch late.

Play: #5 Happy Am I (2-1 ML)

Churchill Downs Race 9:

This first-level allowance event at 1 1/16-miles marks the return of $1.4M purchase, #7 Hall of Fame. As you would imagine, the Gun Runner colt came to the races nearly a year ago highly regarded. He went off at 8-5-in a field of 11 and ran well to finish second before coming back on the Lecomte (G3) undercard at Fair Grounds and romping at odds-on. Unfortunately, he followed that up with two off the board finishes in Derby preps and has been on the sidelines since.

Often, horses like this that are highly regarded big-ticket 2YOs and fail to live up to expectations are great fades when they return to the races, but I learned the hard way that is not the right way to handle Steve Asmussen’s trainees. We saw it yesterday with Track Phantom who ran huge and the examples are endless, but when North America’s all-time leading conditioner gives a quality horse time and brings them back off the layoff, they are usually ready to fire a big shot. I expect that to be the case with this colt who comes in off a long series of drills over this oval and attracts Tyler Gaffalione. Do not be surprised if Hall of Fame is amongst the top older handicap horses in the country in 2025 and gets started in advance with a big win here before heading down to NOLA.

Play: #7 Hall of Fame (4-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:45 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know

November 10, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Del Mar

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Top selection/Prime Play: 1-Aransas Pass
Back-ups: 5-Aunt Mo.

Forecast: Aransas Pass appears to be a filly with good ability and promise. In her second career start (and her first on dirt), the daughter of Global Campaign stumbled badly at the break to lose all chance yet made up a considerable amount of ground from the far turn to the wire to wind up third beaten five lengths over this track and distance last month. She’s certain to display improvement today with a clean start, and now, with two races under her belt, the M. McCarthy-trained juvenile appears ready to earn her diploma. Even in a five runner field she can offer good wagering value in the win pool and in the exotics at or near her morning line 2-1.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 2-Phoenix Flying
Backups: none.

Forecast: Phoenix Flying ran much better than the line will show in his turf sprint debut last month and today, with that bit of experience behind him, seems primed to step forward considerably in this middle distance grass affair for maiden claiming $50,000 company. A close fifth despite lacking room down the backstretch which cost him early momentum, the son of Karakontie stayed on bravely through the lane to wind up a close fifth, beaten just more than a length, while earning a very nice speed figure in the process. Today’s added ground should be well within his capabilities, and from where he’s drawn he’s quite likely to be on or near the lead throughout. At 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll play him enthusiastically on the tote and in the various rolling exotics.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:46 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 10, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park begins the week with a 16-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

3-She The North (6-1)-Will need its best to win at this level, tried to go gate to wire in last and faded down the lane. Anticipating the price will be juicy, so will use as the 2 program chalks start from posts 8 and 9. Has the gate to get a close-up seat and has a shot with a sharp steer.
8-Always Gonna B You (7/2)-Meadows shipper has been facing tougher and should relish the company tonight. The 5-year-old has raced at Nfld only 6 times, has hit the board in 3 starts and took 1 picture. Aaron Merriman will have the pedal down and could go gate to wire.
9-Jillian B Miki (3-1)-Billy Davis Jr will need to figure a way out of jail when the wings fold. But returns from the Meadows and lands at a favorable level. Best to not dismiss, did win here against this kind for its last picture on 9-28.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

3-Smoldering (5-1)-Got a bumpy trip in last but with this post draw should be no worse than 2nd off the gate. Can be a main player if leaves and lands on top or in the pocket. Well worth using at the morning line price and hopefully doesn't get bet down in a big way.
9-His Glory (5/2)-The Kris Hite trainee faces some older foes, but the bigger challenge is likely starting from the 2nd tier. Ships back from the Mea and returns to its favorite oval. Has posted 5 wins in 10 starts at Nfld. Looks like the one to beat if Chris Lems provides a good drive.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-The Dragon Queen (5/2)-Should get a cozy trip and will use with the chalk starting outside. Will need things to fall into place but could end up in the pocket, and hopefully will not be bet down.
7-Always Choose Chip (2-1)-Cashed checks versus better in the last 2 races and now drops to a more comfortable level. Merriman will be out and rolling. Could land on the point and be difficult to tackle.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

8-Incredible Claire (9/2)-Took a picture in its 2nd race at Nfld and led from start to finish. That was a confident effort and was battling on the Fair circuit until recently. Needs a sharp steer and Merriman can provide one. Steps-up, draws outside but this isn't a salty field and will look for the uptrend to continue.

$2.00 Late Pick 4

3,8,9/3,9/2,7/8
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:47 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #2

#6 Uncle Evco	Not shining a tough spotlight to find on this one, but he's got to be as close to a free space as a horse can be on paper. He comes out of a good race that produced a Breeders' Cup Exacta finisher, and this is a soft spot for the level any way you cut it. Should handle these.
#5 Nap	Think he's the most likely upsetter despite the declining form, as there is at least some hope he can bounce back a bit on the new footing. He flashed a touch of talent earlier in his career. Maybe if he likes the turf and gets a misfire from the choice.
#1 Hardtobebetternow	Debuter isn't finding a whole lot of depth in this first spot, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him land a piece. Get a look at him on the tote and track.
Race Summary	Taking my lumps when I should, I admit I fell for another stakes-dropping maiden runner the other day at Churchill, but I have a tough time seeing Uncle Evco losing this one if he can just hold his form against a modest bunch.

Del Mar - Race #4

#4 Harry Houdini	Think he's got a bit better pace to show today, and that could leave him in a good spot right near the top in a race without a lot of early burn. His lack of late punch is a real concern, but maybe a favorable race shape will help him dig in a bit.
#3 Magnify	He took a nice step forward in that second start when getting his feet on the local surface in August, and something like that try would probably make him tough in what doesn't feel like the deepest bunch. Always fun to watch one with a big pedigree like this.
#2 Shofner	He caught a runaway winner last out who has knocked heads with some stakes types in his career, so it wouldn't be a total shock to see this one come alive late to get past this group that doesn't appear to have a similar standout.
Race Summary	Harry Houdini should get a good run of things near the top in a small bunch without much pace, and I'm hoping the presence of Magnify will help keep some prices playable elsewhere.

Del Mar - Race #9

#6 Sir Maximus	The one drawn just outside of him could keep him honest, but he's otherwise not meeting a whole lot of serious speed in this spot. He's got some tables to turn, but he might stick around today if he doesn't take too much early heat.
#3 Andreadytorumble	He proved a good fit with claiming company last out, and there are a couple of pretty decent back efforts on his page. Better stuff would probably do.
#2 Phoenix Flying	He was never too far out of it, and there might be some reasonable upside for him while racing second time out. Not sure I'd be too thrilled at something like the 5/2 ML proposal when I think there are other appealing options.
Race Summary	Sir Maximus and Andreadytorumble look like the right pair, but the former might offer a touch better price while having some more dangerous early pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:47 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 1	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Starter Allowance $10,000 • 870 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $15,500 • Post: 12:00
QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * INVINCIBLE STREAK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ROCKINCHEIRMONEY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next t o it gets out of the gate fast. KOOL MAN KENNY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. OTOOLE OF THE NILE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation . IMA GALLIGAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	INVINCIBLE STREAK	3/1	5/1
3	ROCKINCHEIRMONEY	5/2	7/1
1	KOOL MAN KENNY	3/1	7/1
2	OTOOLE OF THE NILE	6/1	9/1
8	IMA GALLIGAR	12/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	KOOL MAN KENNY	1	3/1	Fast	80	76	3.4	0.0	0.0
2	OTOOLE OF THE NILE	2	6/1	Average	87	70	3.9	0.0	0.0
3	ROCKINCHEIRMONEY	3	5/2	Fast	74	79	2.9	0.0	0.0
4	INVINCIBLE STREAK	4	3/1	Average	82	82	3.9	0.0	0.0
5	MY FAVORITE SIGN	5	8/1	Average	71	71	4.9	0.0	0.0
6	BIG CONTRACT	6	12/1	Average	65	70	3.8	0.0	0.0
7	JUST TELL JESS	7	15/1	Slow	77	67	6.1	0.0	0.0
8	IMA GALLIGAR	8	12/1	Slow	74	77	6.3	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:47 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Late Double
Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $13,300 • Post: 8:16P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ALWAYS A CHANCE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WEST TEXAS PRIZE: Horse has t he highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SM JESS CORONA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FREDDIE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	ALWAYS A CHANCE	9/5	5/1
3	WEST TEXAS PRIZE	10/1	6/1
5	SM JESS CORONA	5/2	6/1
1	FREDDIE	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FREDDIE	1	3/1	Fast	85	82	2.5	0.0	0.0
2	ALWAYS A CHANCE	2	9/5	Average	92	96	4.7	0.0	0.0
3	WEST TEXAS PRIZE	3	10/1	Average	91	90	5.1	0.0	0.0
4	VERBOSITY	4	5/1	Average	83	74	5.0	0.0	0.0
5	SM JESS CORONA	5	5/2	Fast	87	87	2.6	0.0	0.0
6	CHESTER CARLSON	6	8/1	Slow	78	79	6.3	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:48 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:26pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#8 LEVEE WAS DRY (ML=6/1)
#10 PHENOMENAL DREAM (ML=20/1)

LEVEE WAS DRY - Don't often see a profitable return on investment like +47. This rider/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. The Oct 27th race at Keeneland was at a class level of (88). Dropping down in class ranks a significant amount, so he should be in a good position to win. PHENOMENAL DREAM - I'm optimistic this colt will run well today. Last morning work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. Colt is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a nice effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 REDEPOSIT (ML=5/2), #12 J J'S RANGER (ML=3/1), #11 BISATE (ML=7/2),

REDEPOSIT - I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint affairs recently. Doubtful to see him doing it this time around either. J J'S RANGER - You believe this animal is going to win today just because he's always close. Just doesn't win frequently. BISATE - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing talent on Dec 23rd. This colt hasn't had any recent good fortune in sprint contests. No picnic to play him in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #8 LEVEE WAS DRY on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:48 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9400 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 WHATS GOIN ON 8/1
# 3 GOTHAM GRAY 9/2
# 2 THIS ONE CAN RUN 4/1

I think WHATS GOIN ON is a competitive choice and could score at a price in here. Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the halfway point of the race. Could beat this group given the 70 speed rating garnered in her last outing. Appears to have a quite good class edge based on the latest company kept. GOTHAM GRAY - Might best this group here, showing decent numbers of late. The Equibase speed fig of 71 from her last race looks quite good in here. THIS ONE CAN RUN - Gamblers using horses with this rider and conditioner duo have done solidly recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:48 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 57

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 GOLDEN BEAUTY 6/1
# 9 BOTTLE CAPS 4/1
# 3 ADETERMINEDMOM 5/2

GOLDEN BEAUTY is the most competitive bet in this race. I like Ironeyes on this filly to give her a formidable chance to hit the wire first. BOTTLE CAPS - Must be given consideration in this competition if only for the very good speed figure put up in the last race. Looks like a strong player for the exotics. ADETERMINEDMOM - This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-10-2024, 10:49 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race #3 - Post: 1:30pm - SO - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#6 GYPSY LYNN (ML=5/1)
#3 UR IN TROUBLE (ML=3/1)

GYPSY LYNN - A little change in scenery has got to do this thoroughbred well. Reading the PP lines, it seems like she likes to visit the winner's circle on different tracks. UR IN TROUBLE - This jockey and conditioner's equines have been generating a profitable ROI. This race sets up for this filly. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, she'll be in perfect stalking position. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier bunch than last out at Santa Anita.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SHE'S RESILIENT (ML=5/2), #7 DISCREPANCY (ML=4/1), #4 WOODBINE WAY (ML=6/1),

SHE'S RESILIENT - Morning line of 5/2 make this mount a pass by my standards. DISCREPANCY - When looking at today's class figure, she will have to earn a better speed figure than last out to compete in this dirt sprint. WOODBINE WAY - In any event of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been on the board in sprint contests recently. This horse hasn't been in the mix in either of her last couple of efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 GYPSY LYNN on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 11-10-2024, 11:02 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 9:13 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$9000 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W OF 3 RACES OR $30000. LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 FOREVER BETTOR 7/2
# 3 GOOD AS HELL 7/5
# 5 WILDCAT WATCHING 3/1

Feel pretty confident putting some profits down on FOREVER BETTOR. The knowledge group can't help but lean toward this interesting entrant because the internal pace stats fit well here at Flamboro Downs. With this driver/trainer hooking up, bettors often make some green stuff. ROI is great with this combination. Post 4 has been winning at an above average percent, suggesting respectable probability of success for this race. GOOD AS HELL - Considered a solid wager based solely on her high victory percentage. Could provide us a ultimate prize based on nice recent TrackMaster SRs - earning an average of 71. WILDCAT WATCHING - Really liked this mare's last race. Ran a strong 76 speed rating. Major player.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-10-2024, 11:03 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at North Side Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
1	1	STATE OF MIND	5/2	Mac Neil, Jason A - 14	391.30
5	5	SHADOWCROSS HOOPER	7/2	Madden, Keigan J - 10	359.38
7	7	ELM GROVE SUPPORT	5/1	Pezzarello, Mark J - 10	352.48
2	2	BROTHER JOHN	9/2	Getto, Randy F - 20	345.47
3	3	FARMERS FIELDSTONE	3/1	Sparling, Gregory W - 13	343.08
4	4	LOCK HER UP	4/1	Kennedy, John Gerard - 15	340.02
6	6	PRIVATE PARADISE	6/1	Dicks, Aidan - 0	294.25

**ConleyPicks** · 11-10-2024, 11:03 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 14 - Post: 10:46 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 67 - Purse:$8600 - FILLIES & MARES NON WINNERS 2 PARI-MUTUEL RACE OR $20,000 LIFETIME CLAIMING PRICE $15,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 GOOD MISS CADILLAC 2/1
# 2 SONG OF THE QUEEN 5/2
# 1 NOWARNINGWHATEVER 6/1

GOOD MISS CADILLAC looks good to best this race. Many harness players will recognize the outstanding speed rating in the last outing. Stacks up against any horse in this group of horses. One of the most respectable win percentages with this driver/trainer make this filly dangerous. 66 percent of the time this driver and horse pair end up in the top three. Big players in this race. SONG OF THE QUEEN - Take a look at this harness racer's avg speed stat of 66 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a really good wager. The 68 average class rating may give this filly a distinct edge in the field of starters. NOWARNINGWHATEVER - Positive instinct - going to post well enough to contend in this race.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-10-2024, 11:03 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Harrah's Philadelphia

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 6
4	4	ISLA SEELSTER	5/2	Allard, Simon - 16	470.05
5	5	SWEET TALKER	8/1	Miller, Tyler - 10	463.23
7	7	ROSEY TIME	8/5	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 20	457.20
3	3	RACE EYE	6/1	Miller, David - 22	440.66
6	6	SWEET ALI LOU	12/1	Ahle, Johnathan - 6	437.83
2	2	GINGER TREE LIZ	10/1	Chisholm, Bradley - 9	437.21
8	8	WON'T BACK DOWN	15/1	Tetrick, Tim - 22	434.41
1	1	PULL ME THROUGH	20/1	Ryder, Patrick - 7	415.27