Monday 11/11/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-11-2024, 08:04 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 11, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card with the 0.50 Pick 5 beginning in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:40 PM EST)

3-Rockin N Talkn (6-1)-The Scran barn has been cold but this veteran is due to wake-up. Draws inside and drops to a better level to be competitive. Has beaten better at Yonkers this fall. Yannick Gingras could be aggressive and have the 8-year-old forwardly placed.
4-Jahan Hanover (4-1)-Takes on better and recent form has been dull. That’s usually not a good combo but did draw the 7 and 8 holes in the last 2 races. Does its better work racing near the lead. My guess is Jason Bartlett blasts out and lands on the point, so will respect chances.
5-Boiling Oar (5/2)-Really didn’t have an excuse for not sealing the deal last week. Finished 2nd after trying to go gate to wire but may have met a beatable field this time. This will be the 4th start off the bench and is 1 of only 2 horses in the field that are dropping and some are facing better.

Race 7 (9:00 Pm EST)

2-Dunkin (6-1)-Gets a rare inside draw and looks like a main player if minds its manners. Not sure the 6-1 morning line holds up but should offer a fair price.
4-Seven Colors (2-1)-Bartlett takes the lines after finishing a distant 2nd in the first race of the MGM Grand Prix series. That was only the 3rd start on the Hill Top, and it is doubtful the Harris pupil will be back in fifth place off the gate this week. Expecting a short price but could be sitting on a big try.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

2-Blue Lou (8/5)-Keeps winning and moving up. Need to use again, should get the top easily and meets a beatable field. This is the one to beat.
4-Finvarra A (7/2)-Will use for a couple of reasons. Raced from the back in its US debut and went the back half 55.4. Now makes its 2nd start on Lasix, Gingras takes a seat and could be a major threat if improves in its 2nd start on the oval.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Coaches Corner (2-1)-Came off the bench and went off as the chalk in the last 2 starts and looked every bit the part. This is a salty group but has a post edge that could be the winning difference. Will be tough to tackle if lands on the point or even in the 2 hole and that is likely to happen.
3-Nandolo N (8-1)-When the 10-old year swells up like he did turning for the wire last week, good things happen. Wasn’t going to be denied last time and with a similar trip could double up at a favorable mutuel.
7-Desperate Man (7/2)Left from the 8-hole versus this kind and came with a game try to finish 3rd by a neck. Was idle for almost 2 months before the last start. Could follow the same game plan here and not be denied.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

3,4,5/2,4/2,4/2,3,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-11-2024, 08:24 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#7 Mighty Les	He has a few lengths to turn on Inside Stunt from their last meeting, but I think this one is capable of better and might find a decent spying trip while watching a couple of forward players sort things out.
#2 Inside Stunt	He always runs his race here and just caught a solid winner last out, and he has that dangerous combination of tactical pace and the versatility to sit off it if needed. Lots to like except maybe the price.
#1 Rockstar Ro	Could see him getting a slightly tricky trip from the fence, but his recent form is reliable and stacks up nicely here. Interested to see how the play on the board shakes out between this guy and 'Stunt.
Race Summary	Mighty Les ran a rare dull race last time out, and I'm willing to forgive that one in hopes he'll bounce back with one of those better efforts that would be competitive with this crew. Price might be OK.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#1 Marquitos M	Not sure he's good enough to win here, but he has some appeal while turning back off a couple dull route races. His page doesn't look all that bad once you isolate the sprint tries, and maybe he can settle and run on after saving some ground. Not the worst reach in what feels like a modest race.
#3 Roll On Max	He's the one you have to beat to score here, as he has reliable and competitive form and what looks like a pace edge on these. Real chance he puts this one to bed off the turn.
#7 Social History	He has room to bounce back after a flat run last out, but he's always been prone to turning in duds, so I wouldn't want to be here at too short a price. Better stuff fits, but he's not for me.
Race Summary	Marquitos M owns some honest sprint form that's mixed in with the kinds of forgettable running lines that should ensure another playable price today. Could see him getting in the picture with Roll On Max.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#8 Reigning Dream	Lots to like about this cutback player -- he brings good form off that last one and meets a group without a whole lot of serious finishing ability. Assuming he'll roll past these late.
#7 Playfulasitgets	He's not impossible on the rise to try winners for the first time, but I think there is enough other pace signed on to make things difficult enough to keep him from landing this.
#1 Fort Grande	He might be best of the forward plays while having some incentive to make a break for it from the inside and try to discourage the other speed types into chasing. Threat.
Race Summary	Reigning Dream should get a good run of things today while appearing to be the only serious finishing threat, and that advantageous race flow might be enough to get him home.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-11-2024, 08:24 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Parx - Race #1

#5 PRETTY LILY (7-2)	Pair of seconds as the favorite at this level, won the last time she ran 7F.
#7 FLAG SONG FLYNN (8-1)	Followed fave when second at 7F, ran third in 12-horse field last out.
#1 ECHO LAKE (8-1)	Disappointed in latest but can’t be discounted, enters new barn.
Race Summary	PRETTY LILY advanced inside on the turn but couldn’t reach the dueling winner at 6F last out. She remains in top form and returns to her winning distance. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #2

#1 SIR PALACE PRINCE (5-1)	Second best in short and long sprints recently from inner posts.
#9 MALIBLUE (3-1)	Good speed, good post to use it from, good claim barn.
#3 SPINNING HEART (4-1)	Solid numbers, steady check-getter, claimed by Ness at Keeneland.
Race Summary	SIR PALACE PRINCE chased the 6-to-5 and 8-to-5 winning pace setters and finished second both times. He returns to a short sprint off similar rest and looks to break his maiden in his ninth start at Parx. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-9 exacta box.

Parx - Race #4

#6 WHY STOP THERE (6-1)	Wore down the 4-1 pace setter to win at this distance two back.
#10 STRASSE (5-2)	Drops, sheds 8 pounds for third start as a gelding, must avoid wide trip.
#2 Z’S SO GOOD (10-1)	Can stalk and pounce and add value to gimmick wager tickets.
Race Summary	WHY STOP THERE won by a neck and lost by a neck in his last two short sprints and projects a similar trip today from just off the pace. He class drops a notch and sheds 3 pounds and is worth a win and place bet at 6-1 on the morning line. Also play 6-2 and 6-10 exactas.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:25 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 3	Pick 5 (3-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 3-4
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 34 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 3:35P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. 2# A INFERIOR Y DEBTS ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. THE MOLE BABY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MY UNCLE MUSIC: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface. THE MOLE BABY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	MY UNCLE MUSIC	2/1	2/1
7	THE MOLE BABY	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	COACH ALBERT LADY	5	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	34.6	17.3	11.3
3	MY UNCLE MUSIC	3	2/1	Front-runner	39	32	33.2	25.9	23.9
1	MALICIOUS LADY	1	4/1	Front-runner	0	0	32.8	19.2	11.2
7	THE MOLE BABY	7	3/1	Stalker	0	0	28.4	19.0	13.0
2	RODNAVIT	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	29.4	10.4	1.9
6	VIDEOCONFERENCIA	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: WIN WIN ROSE (10/1) [Jockey: Rosario Keddwin - Trainer: Figueroa Carlos A].

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,700 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#2 WAR ON THE RIVER (ML=10/1)
#1 FORT GRANDE (ML=5/2)

WAR ON THE RIVER - This gelding is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on October 21st, finishing second. FORT GRANDE - Gelding shipped to this track and won; now goes for a double. This gelding is in fine form. Ran first on Oct 22nd. He has the highest earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this thoroughbred.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 REIGNING DREAM (ML=9/5), #7 PLAYFULASITGETS (ML=7/2), #4 EARL'S STORMY WIND (ML=8/1),

REIGNING DREAM - Not easy to wager on this entrant this time out. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you play him in a race of 6 furlongs. PLAYFULASITGETS - This racer ran a mediocre speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig. EARL'S STORMY WIND - This gelding made little impact last time out. Not probable that the speed figure he earned on October 26th will be enough in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 WAR ON THE RIVER on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 3:41pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#4 LAMASCO (ML=6/1)
#7 PARISIAN VIBE (ML=9/2)
#12 BETWEEN DREAMS (ML=5/1)

LAMASCO - Nice winning percent this jockey and handler duo have been putting together. Finished off the board last out at Parx Racing, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think she's got a chance. Getting a break of 5 lbs from last race at Parx Racing. She should make the most of this advantage. PARISIAN VIBE - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier group than in the last race at Meadowlands. Just look at her last speed rating, 72. That one fits well in this group. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (61-69-72) make this animal a powerful contender. BETWEEN DREAMS - I think this mare is ready to run a good one. She's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit. This jockey and handler have a favorable ROI when they join forces. This rider fits well with this horse. The mare and Lopez together win at a rate of 75 percent.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LA CIENEGA (ML=3/1), #9 ERIN'S ENTHUSIASM (ML=4/1), #11 OLD HEAD (ML=6/1),

LA CIENEGA - This mare showed very liitle last out. Hasn't raced or had any works since Oct 16th. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. ERIN'S ENTHUSIASM - Hard to play a low class level animal like this after back to back severe stretch runs. The rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a vulnerable contender. OLD HEAD - Difficult to put any money on this filly on the top end. Likes to hit the board though. Registered a substandard speed rating last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on Oct 21st. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 LAMASCO to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [7,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,7,12] with [4,7,12] with [4,6,7,8,12] with [4,6,7,8,12] Total Cost: $36

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26520 Class Rating: 92

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MAY 11 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA BRED CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 EPIMYTHIUM 12/1
# 6 JUDO 3/1
# 4 METALLIC MAN 10/1

I've got to go with EPIMYTHIUM especially at a long price. Could best this group here, showing very good numbers of late. JUDO - Like the finish positions in the last few races. Is a contender - given the 86 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. METALLIC MAN - Ought to go to the lead and could never look back. Recent figures for the jockey - 15 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:26 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 1	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 1-4) / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 12:05
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * PRETTY LILY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AFTERNEATH: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SWANS ISLAND: Horse has run a Good Race with in the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	PRETTY LILY	7/2	4/1
2	AFTERNEATH	4/1	9/2
8	SWANS ISLAND	9/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	SWANS ISLAND	8	9/2	Front-runner	54	59	71.8	35.8	26.3
3	LUCKY OPPORTUNITY	3	8/1	Front-runner	56	51	68.0	34.2	14.2
1	ECHO LAKE	1	8/1	Stalker	60	46	48.9	40.5	29.5
5	PRETTY LILY	5	7/2	Stalker	61	55	47.2	54.8	47.8
2	AFTERNEATH	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	68	58.8	40.8	33.8
4	ONTHISHARVESTMOON	4	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	57	44	48.2	40.6	22.1
9	ODE TO EDIE	9	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	51	53	41.9	51.3	38.8
7	FLAG SONG FLYIN	7	8/1	Trailer	60	46	38.6	50.2	36.2
10	LA SIERVA C	10	12/1	Trailer	59	51	17.2	35.8	21.3
6	FAST GAL	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	60	56.8	38.2	24.7
12	SASSY ANNIE	12	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	67	49.0	32.2	19.7
11	JOB'S NOT FINISHED	11	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	58	35.0	33.8	20.3

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:26 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MAY 11, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 11, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SHE'S A KRAKEN 12/1
# 6 FALL MOON 5/1
# 7 GYPSY WIFE 5/2

My selection for this event is SHE'S A KRAKEN and is a formidable value-based wager given the 12/1 line. Rosales has her trained admirably to break promptly out of the starting gate. The Equibase Speed Figure of 85 from her last race looks quite good in here. FALL MOON - Her 74 average has this mare with among the most respectable Equibase Speed Figs for this race. GYPSY WIFE - Is a solid contender based on figures earned as of late under today's conditions. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:28 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 68 - Purse:$3700 - NW $250 PS L5-6 OR PS IN 2024 $4900 PC LS AE: NW 2 PM LT K DIBENEDETTO 3 OVER 7

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 LADYFLIX 7/2
# 6 WITH A WARNING 4/1
# 7 AL'S SPIRIT 5/2

Hard not to get behind LADYFLIX as the top contender in this contest. Been racing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 73). Achieved a 63 speed rating in last race. A duplicate effort here should get the win today. WITH A WARNING - Overall stats look very good. Can't throw him out of the picture. AL'S SPIRIT - That 66 speed figure clocked in the most recent contest puts this interesting entrant in the mix for this race.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:29 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 8:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 92 - Purse:$19000 - NW $15,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS. AE: WINNERS IN LAST START OF THE BASE CLASS NW $10,000 L5 AE: 3-5 YO NW 8 P-M RACES LT **3 OUT OF LAST 5 STARTS MUST BE IN NEW YORK**

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 BOILING OAR 5/2
# 6 SURFSIDE BEACH 9/2
# 4 JAHAN HANOVER 4/1

BOILING OAR is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the brain trust. He's doing work in fine form, recording substantial TrackMaster SRs. An excellent selection. Seems to have a very good class edge based on the field of horses he has raced against. Racing solidly, achieved a substantial speed rating in his most recent race (93). SURFSIDE BEACH - Yonkers Raceway has been playing to this solid standardbred's running style, we're looking for a very strong effort. JAHAN HANOVER - More wins than normal have been recorded by contenders lining up behind the 4 post at Yonkers Raceway. Might be there at a fair price tag. Definitely one to keep in your exotics.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:29 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 14
5	5	MAJESTIC J	5/2	Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 27	545.67
7	7	GLOBAL GIRL	5/1	Irvine, Don Jr - 47	516.94
2	2	MAJOR'S SONG	9/2	Merriman, Aaron - 26	515.53
4	4	SHINE ALL THE WAY	7/1	Thompson, Jason - 4	497.17
6	6	SHAMROCK	9/1	Davis, Billy Jr - 16	495.03
3	3	JOGGING FULL TROT	9/1	Myers, Hunter - 14	489.83
9	9	HELP PAGE	25/1	Sugg, Kurt - 12	457.72
8	8	BLUEBIRD REVIVAL	25/1	Lems, Chris - 11	451.82
1	1	RANKIN	9/2	St Louis, Marc Jr - 7	433.12

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:29 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Rosecroft Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
7	7	JACK ROGER	4/1	Roberts, Jonathan - 18	494.45
6	6	ALWAYS B MAGIC	7/2	Milby, Frank - 8	464.59
4	4	SCHWARTZ BROS PAT	9/2	Ahle, Johnathan - 20	463.50
5	5	SAULSBROOK BOOMER	3/1	Foster, Russell - 16	455.55
2	2	FRIVOLOUS APPEAL	10/1	Porter, Trae - 18	449.41
1	1	RIGHTHERERIGHTNOW	6/1	Davis, Eric - 7	419.25
3	3	DO YA THINK	8/1	Braden, Corey - 8	417.50

**ConleyPicks** · 11-11-2024, 08:30 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: CBB Florida -23.5 over Grambling