Wednesday 11/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #10

#2 Gambi	Low risk/high reward shot here -- she's supposed to be too cheap for these and has run out of excuses at this point in her career, but she's meeting a field full of horses who can't finish off their races with any punch, and she's one of the few in here who has some finishing lines on her page. Hoping everyone comes back to her.
#6 Stagflation	She is another who has had her share of chances already, but there are a few efforts on her page that would be competitive here, and she has some ability to get past horses late.
#11 Star Watch	She gets some class relief while trying the dirt for the first time, but there isn't a whole lot to be afraid of in this one, so it wouldn't be a shock to see her wake up.
Race Summary	Gambi is a reach, but I'm not sure who you're supposed to be excited about in here, and she has at least occasionally shown some interest in passing horses. Clunks up to score at a big number?

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#13 Graydaria	He'll need a scratch to draw in, but the price might be OK for a team that does good work in these kinds of local spots. Wouldn't be a surprise with the rider in light. Check him out on the tote and track for clues if he goes.
#7 Hope of Glory	He's another fresh face who appears in with some realistic expectations, and this barn has landed some underneath shares in similar spots here. Starting spot for me in the body of the field.
#11 Staygoldponyboy	I don't have much confidence in any of them here outside of my interest in the top two, but this one is presumably going to be a good fit with this kind of group after the string of Delaware special weight starts.
Race Summary	Not sure what to do with the dropping #10 Piquant, but I'm inclined to play against at what is likely to be an underlaid price for a top team. Graydaria gets first call in here for me if she goes while running as the first foal out of a decent mare, and Hope of Glory is another one I want to see ahead of this.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#2 Connive	She might appreciate the more leisurely route tempo while tracking the splits today, and she chased a graded-stakes type runner in that Keeneland allowance last time out. Betting there is still some upside here.
#7 Leo Toro	She has run well on both surfaces, so the move back to the dirt isn't a real concern after a couple good turf starts. Midrange price chance for a piece of this.
#5 Tweetster	Her baseline efforts fits well in here, but I worry she's going to take more action than she should because of her connections, and I wouldn't want any kind of short price in what feels like a competitive race.
Race Summary	Think #1 Little Jamie is worth having on the tickets while getting out of stakes company, but Connive has appeal at something maybe a bit shorter than the 12/1 ML projection.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#3 SILVERBULLIT BADGER (7-2)	Kept quality company out of town, expect better in return to TuP.
#2 BRANDYN (4-1)	Hit board in three consecutive allowance sprints, gets pace to run at.
#4 GONZAGA BAY (5-1)	Steps up after winning three in a row at Prairie Meadows, Corbett sticks.
Race Summary	SILVERBULLIT BADGER returns a much-improved horse than his prior two go-rounds at Turf Paradise. He won a long sprint at Albuquerque off a 10-week layoff, ran second at 7F to Sexy Dexy (15-60, $298k), who was embarking on a three-race winning streak, then ‘closed ground’ but finished fourth behind Ima Bling Cat (14-37, $280k), who is 4-4 this year. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#10 KARAOKE HERO (7-2)	Ran to fast works at Albuquerque, the one to beat as today’s Best Bet.
#4 WAR IS HELL (10-1)	California invader chased the two faves, finished ‘with some interest.’
#6 F B I BOB (3-1)	Battled severe bout with ‘seconditis’ in six-horse fields at Prairie Meadows.
Race Summary	KARAOKE HERO was no match for a 4-to-5 first-time starter in his debut, but he validated that strong effort with a wide rally for third behind the same rival in a 6F stakes race. Wouldn’t expect 7-2 morning-line price but anything close is worth a win and place bet. Also play a 10-4-ALL trifecta.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#5 SAYUCAN (6-1)	Impressed in debut, worked in :47-1/5 since arrival, strong play.
#4 BE AWARE (4-1)	Diodoro firster shows steady work tab, save for three-month gap.
#6 IMA MARGARITA GIRL (5-1)	Led to stretch in last three starts, held for minor awards.
Race Summary	SAYUCAN was unlucky to not win in her debut against Iowa-bred rivals at Prairie Meadows. She was carried inward at the break and forced to take back to last to avoid hitting the rail. She advanced steadily on the inside, swung widest on the turn and had all the momentum in mid-track, only to be denied by the MSW-dropping winner. Bet to win and place and play 5-4 and 5-6 exactas.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 9	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 72 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 5:18P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * HOOSIER PROMISE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ha s run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MY STRONG HEART: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GOLD DELIGHT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
12	HOOSIER PROMISE	9/5	7/2
9	MY STRONG HEART	9/2	9/2
4	GOLD DELIGHT	6/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	MY STRONG HEART	9	9/2	Front-runner	60	48	67.4	45.9	41.4
5	PINK PICTURE	5	8/1	Front-runner	62	42	0.0	0.0	0.0
12	HOOSIER PROMISE	12	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	61	54	42.3	51.4	46.4
2	COPPER CHROME	2	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	40.9	28.9	14.4
14	G FORCE JIMMI	14	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	37.9	41.7	34.7
7	LUNA LLENA	7	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	28.3	28.3	14.8
4	GOLD DELIGHT	4	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	62	57	16.3	38.4	31.9
13	QUIBBLE	13	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	22.8	9.3
3	JUSTALOVETAP	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	YOTOWIN	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: MC BABY (20/1) [Jockey: Calleja Andres - Trainer: Douglass Devarus], JORDANS DEAL (15/1) [Jockey: Villarreal Oscar - Trainer: Eggleston Tim], DREAMY KITTEN (20/1) [Jockey: De La Cruz Fernando - Trainer: Medina Tomas], MICTLAN (

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 5	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 8:11P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 13 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GREY STREAK is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GREY STREAK: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Cl ass Rating at the distance/surface. BROOKLYN STRONG: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DIVINE ARMOR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster P ower Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ALWAYS GAMBLING: Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
2	GREY STREAK	5/2	7/2
4	BROOKLYN STRONG	6/1	6/1
1	DIVINE ARMOR	2/1	8/1
5	ALWAYS GAMBLING	3/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	GREY STREAK	2	5/2	Front-runner	98	83	69.2	81.0	74.5
4	BROOKLYN STRONG	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	94	68.8	81.4	74.4
5	ALWAYS GAMBLING	5	3/1	Trailer	91	86	76.7	84.4	77.4
1	DIVINE ARMOR	1	2/1	Trailer	97	77	74.4	84.8	82.8
3	JUMP FOR THE WIN	3	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	90	81	78.0	72.6	64.1
6	GOING AT IT	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	72	71.3	59.4	48.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31800 Class Rating: 56

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 OVID 2/1
# 2 BOBBY ROB 20/1
# 1 DRILL EM 15/1

OVID looks formidable to best this field. Wolochuk has a solid 30 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. BOBBY ROB - Gonzalez will probably be able to get this gelding to break out early for this race. DRILL EM - He looks decent in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. Always tough to beat Gorham and Barbaran working together, winning 18 percent of their races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:34pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#4 BE AWARE (ML=4/1)
#6 IMA MARGARITA GIRL (ML=5/1)
#11 FLATTERMEINCOURT (ML=10/1)


BE AWARE - The rider and trainer combination have a beneficial return on investment when they team up. I like the fact that this 1st timer has been working over the same track she'll be making her debut on. IMA MARGARITA GIRL - When this jockey and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Americano and Silva-Martinez have been fantastic together. Not much speed in this race other than this pony. This filly's last speed fig earned on Oct 5th is number one in last race Equibase speed figures. FLATTERMEINCOURT - The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Diodoro. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Filly is a first timer whose last three works were on this track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 GIMME MO MONEY (ML=3/1), #5 SAYUCAN (ML=6/1), #7 STAY N LOV (ML=8/1),

GIMME MO MONEY - Hard to support any horse with dropping speed figs of 59/56/42. SAYUCAN - Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable competitors list. STAY N LOV - Trying to beat this entrant in today's event at the value of 8/1.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FLATTERMEINCOURT - This trainer does well with firsters (36 pct winners). This filly is worth a play.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 BE AWARE on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,6,11] with [4,6,11] with [4,6,7,8,11] with [4,6,7,8,11] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:20pm - SO - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating:

#5 LUCKY DUDE (ML=5/1)
#6 BIG BOYS ANSWER (ML=6/1)
#2 STRIKING SPARKS (ML=9/2)
#1 DEBATE (ML=5/2)


LUCKY DUDE - A racer coming back this soon after a strong contest is a good sign. Vargas was aboard this gelding last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. A repeat of that most recent race on November 6th where he notched a speed rating of 100 looks high enough to triumph in this clash. BIG BOYS ANSWER - This rider and handler's equines have been generating a favorable return on investment. STRIKING SPARKS - This colt is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Ness. Ness brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this live colt. DEBATE - Another way to determine class is earnings per race. This horse has the top in the group. I think he'll be close at the finish. Got to like a animal who can make up a ton of ground in the stretch. This gelding came flying late sprinting last time out and should relish the longer distance of today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 ARROW SPEED (ML=3/1), #3 CHECK MY SIX (ML=5/1), #4 PRINCE COLTON (ML=5/1),

ARROW SPEED - Not likely that the speed figure he garnered on October 16th will hold up in this contest. CHECK MY SIX - Had to show me lots more in the last race. Never made much of an impact. PRINCE COLTON - 88/76/73, are the declining speed figures for this entrant. Earned a common speed rating last time out in a non-classified race race on October 15th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 LUCKY DUDE is the play if we get odds of 6/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $127000 Class Rating: 97

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING, OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 LEO TORO 8/1
# 4 CHILLED 9/2
# 1 LITTLE JAMIE 4/1

My choice for this race is LEO TORO especially at a such a nice price. She must be given consideration given the quite good speed numbers. Has been travelling solidly in races of this distance, going 1 for 2 under similar conditions. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group in her last competition. CHILLED - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Saez ought to have this filly in excellent position to win the race. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 90 - of her last affair. LITTLE JAMIE - Should wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today. She has to be given a chance given the decent speed figs.