Thursday 11/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #7

#8 Graydaria	He's one of many interesting new players to think about ahead of this one, but the slight edge goes for this one while racing as the first runner out of a quality mare.
#11 Gettinby	Arkansas-bred might be worth a look first time out with a steady enough series of works ahead of this, and he draws well to watch things unfold from this outside post.
#12 Pair of Socks	He's another fresh face who might be ready to make some noise -- check them both out on the tote and track. Barn could be getting him ready to win in Louisiana-bred company in a few weeks in New Orleans, but he might be live enough to do some damage here.
Race Summary	Graydaria, Gettinby and Pair of Socks have enough appeal to be my starting spots ahead of this one. El Prestigio has the right profile to win this but could be a trap horse after coughing up a big lead late last out..

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#7 Bedazzle 'Em	Her turf form has been pretty solid, and she scored sprinting at Kentucky Downs back in August. She can bounce back while getting over to the turf again -- I'd be happy at the 4/1 ML price.
#1 Makeup	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here after a solid run with similar over the Keeneland turf, and she might find another decent spot while saving ground from the inside. Capable.
#6 Top Gun Girl	She's supposed to be dangerous here for a top team, and she is, but I could see her settling for another underneath share and just failing to see out the trip. The one to beat.
Race Summary	Willing to forgive Bedazzle 'Em for that run last time out and hope she has just found her new home on the turf. Something like the two-back run might keep her in the mix with Top Gun Girl.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#5 G. Erik	He might have a little appeal today with some upside after the tough start last time out, as he at least got past a handful of them in the lane. Not a whole lot to write home about on paper in this group, so something slightly better today might do the trick.
#4 Desperate Proposal	He makes a lot of sense while dropping into this easier spot off a halfway decent effort, and that kind of try already puts him way ahead of most of these. Mild worry about him seeing out the trip, but he's a good complement to the top choice.
#1 Kicking Clear	Wouldn't be a surprise to see him land this as he quickly drops in for the second start after a flat debut try here in September. Hard to predict what we'll see today.
Race Summary	G. Erik may yet be capable of something better, as he at least showed a little enthusiasm when trying claiming company for the first time. Don't think you have to find a world beater to land this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delta Downs - Race #1

#3 SEASONAL LOVE (5-2)	Solid 5F debut, gets Lasix again, will take some catching.
#8 GIBSON (5-1)	Shows a couple good moves from the gate from a long series of workouts.
#7 YANKEESSTROLGY (3-1)	Broke inward in well-bet debut, made late run at 3-1 winner.
Race Summary	SEASONAL LOVE raced close-up until the stretch in a fast-paced debut won by a 2-1 first-time starter. He can parlay that experience into victory at the same 5F distance as the likely favorite. Bet to win and place and play 3-7 and 3-8 exactas.

Delta Downs - Race #3

#8 PEGASO (6-1)	Chased the fave around a sloppy track, gets blinkers on the class rise.
#5 CAUSEWAY BENNY (2-1)	Hit board at three tracks in four MSW starts, strictly one to beat.
#1 SOUTHSCAPE (5-1)	Well-prepped at three other Louisiana tracks, draws the rail.
Race Summary	PEGASO, hard-ridden early to keep up with the 8-to-5 winner, held second as the second favorite in his debut. He steps up to Maiden Special Weight company, wears blinkers for the first time and sheds 4 pounds. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-8 exacta box.

Delta Downs - Race #4

#5 MOR JAZZ (5-2)	Versatile, improved and has 17-length romp at this distance to summon.
#4 ALLER VITE (6-1)	Even try from post 10 in shorter sprint, settled nicely in 6-1/2F maiden win.
#2 OUT MAKING TREBLE (10-1)	Winless in 21 starts at Delta, can rally for minor awards.
Race Summary	MOR JAZZ, one of four entrants with a win at 6-1/2F, finished in the money from on and off the pace in his last two sprints. He returns at the bottom level and figures tough for a trainer-jockey tandem in the midst of a 28-for-83 winning run. Bet to win and place and play a 5/2,4/ALL trifecta

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 6:00P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SIX BUX: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. JESS BACK THE BLUE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. CHANGING THE GAME: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FLETCH MY ALCOHOL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JES LEAVING THE BAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	SIX BUX	10/1	5/1
5	JESS BACK THE BLUE	4/1	7/1
2	CHANGING THE GAME	5/2	7/1
4	FLETCH MY ALCOHOL	2/1	8/1
1	JES LEAVING THE BAR	7/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JES LEAVING THE BAR	1	7/2	Average	78	69	4.1	0.0	0.0
2	CHANGING THE GAME	2	5/2	Slow	78	70	6.4	0.0	0.0
3	SIX BUX	3	10/1	Fast	82	76	3.4	0.0	0.0
4	FLETCH MY ALCOHOL	4	2/1	Average	78	70	4.3	0.0	0.0
5	JESS BACK THE BLUE	5	4/1	Average	73	71	5.3	0.0	0.0
6	TM DEES SHINE	6	8/1	Slow	71	70	8.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 5	Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races5-6)($1 min.)/ Pick 3 (Races 5-7)/ Pick 4 (Races 5-8 )
Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $44,000 • Post: 6:42P
(INCLUDES UP TO $1,400 LTBASBF) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * WISHERT: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. F T W SLAM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EMPIRE KID: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BOULDERING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SUMMERTIME PEPPERS: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner w ith an inside post position.
2	WISHERT	3/1	5/1
5	F T W SLAM	2/1	6/1
7	EMPIRE KID	4/1	8/1
6	BOULDERING	5/1	9/1
3	SUMMERTIME PEPPERS	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	EMPIRE KID	7	4/1	Front-runner	76	73	76.9	58.1	48.6
3	SUMMERTIME PEPPERS	3	15/1	Front-runner	79	77	75.8	65.6	56.1
4	LOVELY SASSICAIA	4	8/1	Stalker	79	82	73.8	73.2	60.7
1	GARFISH	1	8/1	Stalker	83	74	60.4	74.0	69.0
2	WISHERT	2	3/1	Stalker	85	83	49.2	78.0	71.0
5	F T W SLAM	5	2/1	Trailer	85	82	53.6	81.6	77.1
6	BOULDERING	6	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	81	79	50.0	70.0	62.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 EDGE OF THE BLADE 4/1
# 3 QUERY 2/1
# 4 POOR MANS LADY 12/1

EDGE OF THE BLADE is the most favorable wager in this race. Must be considered versus this field based solely on pedigree figs. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. QUERY - Sire is so important in two-year old races and this one's babies have fared soundly while winning at a 19 percent clip. She has been racing well lately while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Sire's babies have given very good gains. POOR MANS LADY - Sire's numbers - Instilled Regard - support this selection.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $27200 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA BRED CLAIMING RACES FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 ONE LAST BID 5/2
# 9 POLYGLOT 7/2
# 13 RED LINE OVERDRIVE 10/1

ONE LAST BID is my choice. Could beat this group of animals given the 90 speed figure earned in his last outing. POLYGLOT - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group as of late. His 82 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase Speed Figures in here. RED LINE OVERDRIVE - Is a strong contender based on figures earned recently under today's conditions. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Estvanko running at this distance are the best in this group of horses in this race.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Woodbine - Race #2 - Post: 5:19pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,400 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#5 MISS WATERLOO (ML=3/1)
#6 SLOANS SKY (ML=8/1)


MISS WATERLOO - The October 24th event at Woodbine was at a class level of (67). Dropping down in the class scale significantly, so she should be in a good position. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. This filly earned a strong rating of 53 in her last race. That speed fig should be good enough to win in today's event. SLOANS SKY - Dropping down in Equibase class figure points from her October 17th race at Woodbine. Based on that data point, I will give this animal the edge.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 HOULIHAN (ML=7/2), #2 SUMMER HOLIDAY (ML=4/1), #9 MRS. BENJAMIN (ML=6/1),

HOULIHAN - 7/2 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event lately. SUMMER HOLIDAY - Tough to bet on any animal in a sprint race at 4/1 when she hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last couple months. MRS. BENJAMIN - The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 MISS WATERLOO on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#7 BURTON WAY (ML=6/1)
#4 MY HANDSOME MAN (ML=15/1)
#3 BON BUENO (ML=4/1)


BURTON WAY - Lewis should be able to place this gelding right behind the front runners. Ideally, Lewis will rate behind the leaders, then make a bold move on the turn. This horse didn't run well on a track listed as good in his last start at Charles Town. You probably want to ignore that effort. This horse is tops in earnings per start. He looks sharp in today's clash. Carrying 5 pounds less this race. Trainer has him in a good spot. MY HANDSOME MAN - My handicapping know-how tells me to be on the alert for this horse in this affair BON BUENO - You always have to be on the prowl for money making jockey/conditioner tandems; we have one right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PRINCE OF PORTLAND (ML=9/5), #1 DUBLSHOTOFCOURAGE (ML=9/2), #5 CHICA CHUCK (ML=5/1),

PRINCE OF PORTLAND - This gelding showed very little last time out. DUBLSHOTOFCOURAGE - Earned a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last time around the track in a $10,000 Claiming race on October 10th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure. CHICA CHUCK - Didn't do much last time. Probably won't make a winning move in today's event. Hard to gamble on these non-winning types at less than generous odds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 BURTON WAY is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,4,7] with [3,4,7] with [3,4,5,7,8] with [3,4,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36