Saturday 11/16/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**rocky57** · 11-12-2024, 12:47 PM

Bryan Power CFB Kansas +3.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2024, 06:52 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Claiming Crown Jewel at Churchill

November 13, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The 26th annual Claiming Crown rolls into Churchill Downs this Saturday and puts the blue-collar horses in the headlines. Eight divisional stakes races run under starter allowance conditions go as Races 4-11 on the card. As expected, enhanced purses for these claiming veterans proved popular at the entry box with 119 names dropped for the 8 races. The featured 1-1/8 miles Jewel is the main event for those who have started at least once for $35,000 claiming or less in 2023-'24. It lured a capacity field of 12 with 2 also-eligibles, topped by defending race champion MONEY SUPPLY.

The 14 Jewel prospects hail from 8 different last-out locations, but note all but 1 has made at least 1 career start on the Churchill Downs main track. Eight of them have won locally.

Field Depth:
Grade 3 winner MONEY SUPPLY has the field's marquee victory in Fair Grounds' Mineshaft Stakes in February. The lineup also includes listed stakes winners AUTO GLIDE and LAUGHING BOY.

Pace:
LAUGHING BOY and also-eligible GILDED CRACKEN are the only committed front-runners in the field. SPOILER, WINSTON WOLF, SURFACE TO AIR, BOURBON DAY and BEYOND BEST are candidates to seek some position, but likely not threaten the front. A deep closer could be compromised .

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-SPOILER: Corey Lanerie will save every inch from the rail as he's apt to do, giving this consistent, Keeneland claiming winner every chance as he returns to the Commonwealth from a solid run in Oklahoma. Good running style for the race shape.

#2-GENERAL MATHIS: Have to think shrewd Larry Rivelli barn had this race in mind when putting up $40K to claim this one last out (a winning CD effort), considering 7-year-old has made only 16 career starts. Back class with a Santa Anita allowance win on the ledger in 2023 and 2-for-2 at the 9F trip on dirt.

#3-MONEY SUPPLY: Won the Jewel as 5-2 chalk last year and is 2-1 morning line favorite to repeat. Joe Sharp trainee since added stakes wins at Fair Grounds and Horseshoe Indy before being overmatched on grass in last 2 at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs. Fits back at this dirt level over CD track where he's 2-for-5.

#4-HURRY HURRY: Drops far out of it early and that's led to some inconsistency, following up each of his last 3 wins with 2 consecutive losses. Pace scenario doesn't look beneficial for him, though Jose Ortiz riding very well of late.

#5-AUTO GLIDE: On the sideline since July, previous bids off layoffs have not warranted confidence. Did run off 4 straight wins earlier this year at Oaklawn and Delaware Park, but was not effective in 1 prior Churchill start in 2023.

#6-GUNTOWN: Trainer Mike Maker owns the Claiming Crown record with 22 career wins, including the '22 Jewel in the only other time the race was run at Churchill Downs. He'll look for more with this classy $750K Gun Runner buy that was claimed for $80K in March. Hasn't shown much in 6 starts for the barn, albeit vs. much tougher foes. Winless at the track in 5 starts and the distance in 6, but lures top jockey Luis Saez.

#7-WINSTON WOLF: Churchill local has 4 straight superfecta finishes over the track, including a June win at the distance. The concern will be class as he's been more of a $30K sort in those local starts and appears more 'claimer' than many of these.

#8-BOURBON DAY: With 6 wins in his last 12 races - over 6 different tracks (turf/dirt) - there aren't many holes to poke in this Brad Cox trainee. He's the only horse in the race without a prior start at Churchill Downs, but his ability to perform everywhere else in any scenario lends to his chances. Regular rider Flavien Prat opts to stay in New York; Florent Geroux takes the call.

#9-LAUGHING BOY: David Jacobsen trainee hasn't raced since tiring on the pace of April's Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland. Prior, he won the 9-furlong Excelsior at Aqueduct. He knows only a singular style and will try to wire the field under Samy Camacho and a hefty 126-pound assignment. Keep an eye on scratches as Gilded Craken's status on the AE list makes a huge impact on this one's chance to control the tempo.

#10-WELAKA: Churchill-based 4-year-old has won 2 of his last 3, including a CD claimer and an Ellis starter allowance over this 1-1/8 miles journey. But he's off since August and hasn't fired strongly off prior breaks.

#11-SURFACE TO AIR: Strong Keeneland rally to win an allowance last out with a return to Lasix. Notably has won 4 straight on the medication, running poorly in 2 starts at Monmouth in stakes company without Lasix in-between. Last 3 wins have come at 10-1, 20-1 and 24-1 odds.

#12-BEYOND BEST: Winless over his last 4 starts since trainer Genaro Garcia claimed him for $40K. He's run some good races at Churchill, but distance is the concern, and a far outside post doesn't help stretch that stamina.

(AE) #13-GILDEN CRAKEN: Major pace player has won 2 straight wire-to-wire and is a neck shy of winning his last 4 attempts on dirt. Trainer Joe Sharp has defending Jewel champ Money Supply in the main body and this would be a good early-late pace compliment. Contends even from a wide draw if in.

(AE) #14-BIG DREAMING: 7-year-old has just 1 dirt win while spending the vast part of his career on turf. But longtime followers know Churchill is one of the better turf-to-dirt translations you'll see of any US venue; turf horses often run well here (this one third in his only CD dirt bid). Trainer Mike Maker and his record 22 Claiming Crown wins merit some respect.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
MONEY SUPPLY is proven over the track, the distance and the class level as the defending champ. You can make excuses for his last 2 (Kentucky Downs unique course, Grade 1 at Saratoga).

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
SPOILER could get a great trip inside at 15-1 morning line and his consistency is admirable with 9 of his last 10 in the superfecta.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$25 exacta part-wheel MONEY SUPPLY, BOURBON DAY over SPOILER, GENERAL MATHIS ($100).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2024, 06:53 AM

Racing from Morocco to be Offered Saturday; Longshots Reigned '23

November 12, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet will have a chance Saturday to watch and wager on the 10th edition of the Morocco International Meeting from Casablanca-Anfa Racecourse. Horses from 17 countries participated in last year’s event, which includes 8 races offered to the international simulcast audience.

The Morocco International Meeting gets underway at 8:00 am ET (US). When betting, look for the track code CAS. Casablanca-Anfa is ts nation’s oldest racetrack, dating back to 1912, and features a 1-1/16 miles (1700m) dirt oval with no turf course.

Wagering notes: win-place-show, exacta, trifecta and superfecta on all races; 20-cent pick four (Races 1-4, 5-8) and 20-cent pick three (Races 3-5, 6-8). Takeout 20% WPS, all others 25%

Jockeys to Watch: Zouhair Madini, Abderrahim Faddoul (both won 2 races on last year’s MIM card)

Price Patrol: Last year’s 8 MIM races averaged a $30.53 win mutuel (low $12.40); favorites 0-for-8.

Post Time Schedule | Saturday, November 16, 2024

Race 1 | 8:00 am ET | Prix Mediterranee | 4YO&UP | 1-3/16 miles (1900m)

Race 2 | 8:30 am ET | Prix Jean Pierre Laforest | 2YO | about 1-1/16 miles (1750m)

Race 3 | 9:00 am ET | Fegentri Prize | 4YO&UP | 6-1/2 furlongs (1300m)

Race 4 | 9:30 am ET | Grand Prix des Eleveurs | 3YO fillies | about 1-1/16 miles (1750m)

Race 5 | 10:00 am ET | Grand Prix des Proprietaires | 3YO | 1-3/16 miles (1900m)

Race 6 | 10:43 am ET | Grand Prix de la SOREC | 3YO&UP | 2 miles (2400m)

Race 7 | 11:15 am ET | Grand Prix de Sa Majeste le Roi Mohammed VI | 3YO&UP | 2 miles (2400m)

Race 8 | 11:45 am ET | Prix Vichy | 4YO&UP | 1-3/16 miles (1900m)

**rocky57** · 11-14-2024, 04:03 PM

Teddy Covers CFB Arkansas

**rocky57** · 11-14-2024, 04:04 PM

Marco D'Angelo CFB Nebraska

**Bigred** · 11-15-2024, 07:54 AM

Marco D Angelo cfb Arizona

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2024, 06:46 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 11/16/24

November 16, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Del Mar

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 6-Big Gain
Back-ups: 1-Andtheomofthebrave

Forecast: Big Gain didn’t break well, fell back early and simply spun his wheels thereafter when unplaced as the odds-on favorite in a maiden claiming dirt dash last month at Santa Anita. But today we’re expecting a significant amount of improvement with his switch to grass for the first time. The son of Mr. Big certainly is bred for the lawn on both sides of his pedigree, so perhaps this surface will bring out his best ability. Also, he’s protected today in a sign of confidence, so in what appears to be a below standard maiden special weight affair the P. Miller-trained sophomore must be given a big chance at 3-1 on the morning line to make amends for his recent failure as the chalk.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 2-Hey Jessie
Backups: 4-Renatus

Forecast: Hey Jessie was given an easy run in her debut in a similar mile turf affair for state-bred juvenile fillies at Santa Anita and actually did quite well to wind up a willing fourth despite a wide trip, beaten less than three lengths. She should move up a ton today with that bit of experience behind her, and really won’t have to improve much to handle this group. Two nice breezes since her debut last month tells us she’s doing well, so this S. McCarthy-trained daughter of Grazen will offer an excellent gamble on the tote and in the various exotics at anything close to her 3-1 morning line.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2024, 06:47 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick 3 Analysis

November 16, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Tonight, Hoosier Park has a 12-race card, and there are only 5 race dates left in the 2024 season. The 0.50 Pick 3 that starts in Race 6 will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (9:00 PM EST)

4-Swanya (7/2)-Gets some post relief and has beaten similar. John De Long should have the pedal down and could get the top and not look back. The mare knows her way to the HoP winner's circle taking 11 pictures in 27 starts.
7-Show Me Million (6-1)-Has battled tough 4-year-olds in Kentucky and Indiana. Returns to Indiana and can go back on Lasix. Recent form has been dull but this smells like a wake-up situation and hopefully the morning line price holds up.

Race 7 (9:24 PM EST)

3-Rockin Rebellion (5-1)-Taking a swing and thinking the Stohler trainee goes off at a big number. Does have issues but qualified here and then put in a start at Dayton. If dialed on high should be in the hunt. Best to respect, has done good work on this oval (46-10-8-8). Gets a post edge on the 2 chalks and has shown the speed to beat this group.
7-Jk's Champ (5/2)-Has the gate speed to get the top and comes off an efficient trip out win. Will look for a similar plan here. The question mark is this will be the driving debut for Maria Howard, but she is not the only lady with a short resume.

Race 8 (10:12 PM EST)

4-Drink Up Drink Up (4-1)-Ships back from Kentucky and raced well posting 3 second place finishes. Comes back to HoP and has won 3 of 5 races here. Brandon Bates draws inside of some tough customers and will look to get the jump out of the gate.
6-Flagman (7/2)-Has won 2 of the last 4 and has raced well considering was paced compromised 2 back. The race should set up nicely with honest fractions. Luke Plano can get away close to the lead and be in position to take a picture at the top of the stretch.

$4 Pick 3

4,7/3,7/4,6
Total Bet=$32

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2024, 06:47 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#6 GALATIANS (7-5)	Towers over field on paper, should get back on winning track on class drop.
#3 TIZ SPEEDY (6-1)	Bid 4-wide at quarter pole and blew past the favorite in a two-turn mile.
#8 DAREDAVITE (7-2)	Just missed in one-turn mile two back, slowed by pace in five-horse field last out.
Race Summary	GALATIANS has the best numbers, the most 1-1/8-mile experience and should get a needed confidence boost in his first start near his April claiming price. Make a flat win bet and play 6-3 and 6-8 exactas.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#3 NOT A BOTHER (8-1)	Good speed in debut, pressed into stretch, shortens up in first MSW test.
#5 ALANI (9-5)	Finished second in all four starts on the main track at Parx.
#6 PHANTASMICAL (8-5)	Out-dueled by second fave at Saratoga before 2-1 firster rallied for win.
Race Summary	NOT A BOTHER ‘handled outer pressure’ by the favorite on the turn but tired in a useful debut at 7F. She will retain good value against a couple of out-of-town invaders who are favored, so a win and place bet is in the offing.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#1 FEELIN SO LUCKY (6-1)	Well-spotted off claim, has one-turn mile experience, good value play.
#2 ISABELLA’S GLORY (9-2	Rallied for two wins and two seconds before allowance try in latest.
#3 LOVELY CHARM (3-1)	Parlayed late kick into 12/2-5-2 record during $65k sophomore season.
Race Summary	FEELIN SO LUCKY faces Maryland-bred rivals for the first time while in top form. She won going away off a two-month rest two starts ago, then rallied for second behind the pace-setting favorite after a slow start. She is a front-end threat at a tempting price on the stretch-out in distance from the rail. Bet to win and place and play 1-2 and 1-3 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2024, 06:49 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct
PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 5	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 5 &6, Pick 3 ($1) (5-7) Pick 6 ($1) (5-10)
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $92,000 • Post: 1:40P
(UP TO $16,008 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (ALLOWANCE HORSES PREFERRED)(1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. WEIGH THE RISKS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WEIGH THE RISKS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SAVE US MELANIA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. I'M BUZZY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/sur face. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SEDONA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	WEIGH THE RISKS	8/1	3/1
1	SAVE US MELANIA	9/5	8/1
4	I'M BUZZY	6/1	9/1
5	SEDONA	2/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	WEIGH THE RISKS	2	8/1	Front-runner	96	98	94.8	68.3	63.3
1	SAVE US MELANIA	1	9/5	Stalker	78	87	76.8	86.3	77.8
4	I'M BUZZY	4	6/1	Trailer	94	80	76.0	84.2	77.7
5	SEDONA	5	2/1	Trailer	90	81	62.7	82.2	76.7
6	BELLS BEACH	6	3/1	Trailer	83	93	56.7	80.7	75.2
3	BEST IMPRESSION	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	76	64.5	72.0	62.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2024, 06:49 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park
PURCHASE

Arapahoe Park - Race 5	W/P/S/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
SO $6,250 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $11,600 • Post: 2:40P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5000 OR LESS IN 2023-2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $6250 COLORADO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250. COLORADO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SILVER LIGHTENING is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * QUALITY BOW: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. AMY D: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER LIGHTENING: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at t he distance/surface. AKASI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	QUALITY BOW	9/2	9/2
4	AMY D	5/2	6/1
1	SILVER LIGHTENING	8/1	7/1
6	AKASI	4/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SILVER LIGHTENING	1	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	68	73	73.0	53.6	48.6
6	AKASI	6	4/1	Stalker	77	69	79.5	68.0	58.5
4	AMY D	4	5/2	Stalker	79	77	56.0	61.8	55.8
2	QUALITY BOW	2	9/2	Trailer	82	80	59.5	75.2	70.2
7	TRIBAL SPIRIT	7	8/1	Trailer	71	67	55.2	64.8	51.3
5	RIGHT OF REFUSAL	5	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	75	71	58.0	60.2	54.2
8	COLD AS YOU	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	59	60.8	50.8	33.8
3	GUARDING ELK CAMP	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	69	11.0	57.2	46.2
9	LADY LANA	9	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	59	9.0	49.8	36.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2024, 06:49 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 57

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 CUPCAKE COWBOY 2/1
# 10 THREE SEVENS 3/1
# 9 LACEY'S KAT 8/1

CUPCAKE COWBOY looks very good to best this field. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in recently. Has performed strongly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 60 avg speed figure. Can't overlook the connections here, a 17 winning percentage, one of the top at getting into the winner's circle. THREE SEVENS - Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the lead recently. Must be considered based on the strong speed fig garnered in the last affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2024, 06:50 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Pleasanton - Race #8 - Post: 4:15pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#2 BUSY MAKING MUNNY (ML=3/1)
#3 HELLO KID O KID O (ML=5/1)
#4 SOLAR BURST (ML=8/1)

BUSY MAKING MUNNY - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. This campaigner coming off a good try in the last month or so is a win candidate in my opinion. This filly's last speed figure garnered on Oct 26th is at the top in last race Equibase speed figs. HELLO KID O KID O - This race horse should be rumbling down the lane. SOLAR BURST - Last ran at Fresno and finished fourth. Reviewing her PP lines, I see she was close at the finish line, within 5 of the winner.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SPACE BUNS (ML=7/2), #8 KNOW ABOUT AUTISM (ML=9/2), #5 TIZSUMMER (ML=8/1),

SPACE BUNS - Almost certainly won't make much of an impression this time around. KNOW ABOUT AUTISM - Doesn't look to have enough positive angles to bear out the value. TIZSUMMER - Today's event is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint event in the last couple of months. Not the greatest of signs. Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing ability on October 26th.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BUSY MAKING MUNNY - I always check out the horse that is at the top in earnings per start. If she meets my qualifications I make a wager.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 BUSY MAKING MUNNY on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2024, 06:50 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $45000 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 SPACE COWBOY 123 8/5
# 11 RACY COWBOY 4/1
# 7 CUSTOM MAID MISS 8/1

SPACE COWBOY 123 is my choice. Looks decent against this group of horses and will almost certainly be one of the leaders. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this horse look respectable in this contest. Look for a formidable effort with the class drop. RACY COWBOY - Should come out solid - I have liked the way this colt has moved swiftly to the front end recently. Always difficult to beat Cardenas and Barraza working together, winning 22 percent of their races.