Sunday 11/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Scott Shapiro: $251K Carryover Pick 5 Keys for Churchill | Sunday

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November 17, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

After the Claiming Crown card on Saturday in Louisville, Churchill Downs stays in the headlines with a $251,779 late pick 5 carryover on Races 5-9. Here are a few horses I landed on in hopes of closing out the week strong!


Race 6:

Impressive first-out victor #6 Uncle Jim is the one to beat in this first-level allowance event for 2YOs at 8.5-furlongs, but it is tough to swallow chalk on a horse taking on winners and trying a route of ground for the initial time. Therefore, I will swing against the Brad Cox trainee with #7 Magnitude. The Not This Time colt makes his first start since chasing the pace of impressive Iroquois (G3) winner, Jonathan’s Way in mid-September. The Winchell Thoroughbreds runner gets some class relief here and draws favorably to the outside in this compact group of seven. If no one else is aggressive, jockey Erik Asmussen should be able to take command early, but I think Magnitiude has a solid shot as well if he sits just off the early pace. Hopefully the two morning line choices take a good deal of money and he gets a bit overlooked in the wagering.

Play: #7 Magnitiude (3-1 ML)


Race 7:

Trainer Brad Cox also has the morning line favorite in this MSW event for 2YO fillies at 6-furlongs in first-time starter, #3 Catana. The Juddmonte homebred is the first foal out of the mare Kirby’s Penny. She who 7 of 16 in her career, earned over $400k, and won on debut albeit against $40k maiden claimers on the grass. She is the understandable top choice, but I prefer #9 Tickin Time Blonde. Trainer Vickie Oliver rarely wins at first asking, but this filly put in a solid runner-up effort at Kentucky Downs against eleven rivals to start her career this summer. Then, she backed it up by moving forward in her second lifetime start less than two months later at Keeneland when she missed by a half-length in her first dirt try. Now Oliver turns to Luis Saez, who should be able to get this gal to the front and never look back.

Play: #9 Tickin Time Blonde (5-2 ML)


Race 8

There is no doubt that if #6 Kavod gets a similar trip and runs back to his last effort, he will be very tough to get by in the Sunday feature. The 5YO gelding posted a career best run in his second-place finish to Giant Mischief at Keeneland a little over a month ago, but that was a race where speed dominated with those coming from off the pace failing to make much of an impression. I am hopeful this third-level allowance event over the main track presents a race shape that plays more towards a runner from off the pace. If it does, I love the chances of #5 Gold Luck. The Southwest Racing Stables runner returns just 15 days after being outrun against better in the $300,000 Bet on Sunshine. Not only should the Goldencents colt appreciate the class relief, but also being able to run again on Lasix. He is 5 for 10 over this surface and has run well in the past when he has been wheeled back somewhat quickly. Edgar Morales should be able to save ground early and get this bunch late.

Play: #5 Gold Luck (4-1 ML)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 11/17/24

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November 17, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Del Mar

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 4-Old Pal
Back-ups: 1-El Potente.

Forecast: Old Pal earned a career top speed figure when his late kick fell a nose short in a similar affair over nine furlongs on grass at Santa Anita last month. He was forced to rally into the teeth of moderate fractions, making his effort all the more impressive. This shortened trip to a mile guarantees help up front, so with the projected pace flow and good racing luck the son of Grazen should be capable of producing a winning late kick for the always powerful jockey/trainer combo of A. Fresu and M. Glatt.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 5-Bullard
Backups: none.

Forecast: Bullard hadn’t trained like a win early type but nevertheless graduated at first asking in a fast, highly rated maiden sprint that stamped him as a future star. Today, the stretch-running son of Gun Runner gets an extra furlong to work with and a race shape that should offer plenty of pace to compliment his late running style. A :58 and change breeze since his win indicates the M. McCarthy-trained juvenile exited his race in fine fettle, so we’re expecting an even better performance today. At 8/5 on the morning line he offers wagering value on the tote and as the main punch in the various rolling exotics.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #6

#4 Day and Age	He was one-paced late in his first route try, but I'm hoping he still has something more to offer in just this third start at what should be a better price this time around. He has some tables to turn out of that last, but it's a race I liked a bit.
#7 Mellencamp	Wouldn't be any surprise for a top team while coming off a useful debut run, and he's probably the controlling pace against this crew today. The one to beat.
#3 Journalism	That debut seemed like something that could set him up for better while stretching around two turns. One of the ones to consider with some plausible upside today.
Race Summary	Day and Age might get a bit overlooked with this group today, but I think he still has some room to build on that last one. Decent spying trip behind a couple stretchout players?

Del Mar - Race #7

#5 Packs a Wahlop	He's dropping out of a race behind a winner who was in the frame in the Breeders' Cup Mile a couple weeks back, and he's obviously not running into anything even close to that guy here. Tactical speed gets first jump?
#1 El Potente	He makes his second start of the fall campaign, and he has some pace in a race without a ton of serious forward players. Wouldn't be a surprise from right up top with these.
#8 Storm the Court	Fun to see this old name still knocking, and he has some room to bounce back while moving over to the lawn again. Plugs along for an underneath share at a midrange price?
Race Summary	Packs a Wahlop has some decent names on his page, and he has been in the mix when trying easier groups like this in the past. Think there's a lot of upside today on the drop.

Del Mar - Race #8

#1 Mckinzie Street	He was flat late in the route run last out, but the winner came back to land the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in his next start, and this guy might be in a perfect spot to sit on the fence and spy the action while the more dedicated pace types settle the early score.
#3 Kalea Bay	Dangerous pace chased the Breeders' Cup winner in one of his previous starts, too, and he has since turned in a couple of sharp efforts. Bit worried that he will have some company early, but he's a high-ceiling talent.
#5 Bullard	He rallied well to score at first asking and beat Kalea Bay in the process, and he's another who would benefit if a couple of the speedier types hooked up into the turn.
Race Summary	Mckinzie Street can land this with something like his two-back run, and his distant third in the American Pharaoh looks better now that the winner wheeled back to land the Breeders' Cup Juvenile without a ton of trouble. The race shape should flatter his tracking style today while well drawn on the fence to tuck in behind that pace.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar
PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50c Trifecta $2 Double / $1 Superfecta (10c min) / $2 WPS Parlay
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 99 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 4:00P
BOB HOPE S. - GRADE 3 FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION CLOSED NOVEMBER 7,2024 WITH 7 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $1,000 EACH BY CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. $1,500 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH $60,000 TO THE WINNER, $20,000 TO SECOND, $12,000 TO THIRD, $6,000 TO FOURTH AND $2,000 TO FIFTH. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A STAKES OF *60,000 ALLOWED 2 LBS.; NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER, 4 LBS.; NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING, 6 LBS. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED. PREFERENCE OF HORSES WITH EQUAL WEIGHTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY NON-CLAIMING EARNINGS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER. *$60,000 TO THE WINNER.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. MCKINZIE STREET is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MCKINZIE STREET: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power R ating. KALEA BAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. BULLARD: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Hors e ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	MCKINZIE STREET	2/1	5/2
3	KALEA BAY	9/5	8/1
5	BULLARD	8/5	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	MAXIMUS	6	15/1	Front-runner	77	82	94.8	77.7	69.7
3	KALEA BAY	3	9/5	Front-runner	86	92	82.5	83.5	77.5
2	DR RUBEN M	2	20/1	Front-runner	89	84	77.7	65.4	56.9
1	MCKINZIE STREET	1	2/1	Stalker	99	95	87.9	92.3	90.3
5	BULLARD	5	8/5	Trailer	84	88	57.8	83.4	77.9

Unknown Running Style: MADAKET ROAD (10/1) [Jockey: Fresu Antonio - Trainer: Baffert Bob].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 5	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 2:17P
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CRIMSON PRINCESS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CRIMSON PRINCESS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ASHIMA : Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PASAJERA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MUSICAL JOURNEY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	CRIMSON PRINCESS	20/1	7/2
9	ASHIMA	6/5	6/1
5	PASAJERA	10/1	9/1
7	MUSICAL JOURNEY	3/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	CRIMSON PRINCESS	6	20/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	78	76.4	68.0	63.0
7	MUSICAL JOURNEY	7	3/1	Stalker	71	74	83.0	67.2	57.2
5	PASAJERA	5	10/1	Stalker	75	67	75.4	69.8	61.8
4	LOVE MY JOB	4	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	71	75.4	64.2	54.2
10	R AWESOME SAUCE	10	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	65	58.4	65.6	50.1
9	ASHIMA	9	6/5	Alternator/Stalker	81	81	55.0	72.0	66.5
11	ANDIE ONE	11	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	71	53.4	67.0	55.0
2	INTO TOURING	2	20/1	Trailer	73	65	73.9	60.7	46.2
1	FUNTASTICA	1	6/1	Trailer	74	72	63.8	71.4	52.9
8	DARLING DARLEY	8	12/1	Trailer	74	68	40.8	58.6	47.6
3	WHAT A KNOCKOUT	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	72	51.0	62.6	44.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:25pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#1 CADILLAC JUSTICE (ML=5/1)
#5 BRADFIELD BABY (ML=9/5)


CADILLAC JUSTICE - As the only speed freak in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. The recent rating of 76 is the highest last race speed figure in the field. BRADFIELD BABY - This gelding gets a weight break of -6 pounds from last race. This should help right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CHELSEA DAGGER (ML=6/5), #6 U S HONOUR NAP (ML=6/1),

CHELSEA DAGGER - If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be frustrated regularly. U S HONOUR NAP - Don't think this mount will do much running in today's race. That last speed fig was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 CADILLAC JUSTICE on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11800 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. COLORADO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 UNBOWED 5/2
# 5 BRAYBRAY 2/1
# 9 BLUE SKYE JADE 10/1

I think UNBOWED is a respectable choice. With Cardoso getting the mount, watch out for this racer. Jockey's recent ROI numbers make this gelding a good bet. Has strong Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race. BRAYBRAY - Could provide positive profits based on strong recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 77. Martinez has a strong winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. BLUE SKYE JADE - Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last outing. Has run admirably when running a dirt sprint race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 2.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 STORM D'ORO 2/1
# 3 REAL ME 3/1
# 1 MODERA 4/1

I give the nod to STORM D'ORO here. Looks decent to be up on the lead at the first call. Is a solid contender - given the 70 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. REAL ME - Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the competition. Should definitely be given a chance in this race if only for the quite good Equibase speed fig recorded in the last race. MODERA - Earned a strong speed figure last time out. Overall the speed figures of this pony look very good in this competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:29pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#4 SPARKLE OF HOPE (ML=5/2)


SPARKLE OF HOPE - Trainer Foley moves this one down in class to face a lower level today. Look for a solid race in this race. Gaffalione should be able to place this mare right behind the leaders. Ideally, Gaffalione will rate behind the leaders, then strike on the turn. Have to give this mare a good shot. Ran a sharp race in the last race within the last thirty days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TEARDUC (ML=2/1), #1 EVIE'S ENCORE (ML=3/1), #7 URBAN COWGIRL (ML=4/1),

TEARDUC - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance contests in order to back her. Can't play this probable favorite off the long layoff. EVIE'S ENCORE - Can't wager on this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance affair of late. This questionable contender hasn't been close to the winner at the finish of late. URBAN COWGIRL - This runner made little impact last time out finishing second. Don't see any hint of any change in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 SPARKLE OF HOPE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 16 - Post: 11:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 66 - Purse:$8600 - FILLIES & MARES NON WINNERS 1 PARI-MUTUEL RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. AE: N/W 2 PM RACES OR $20,000 LIFETIME CLAIMING PRICE $15,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 BETTY ROCKS 2/1
# 2 SOUR GRAPES 5/1
# 6 SAULSBROOK EVEE 15/1

Really keen on the likelihood of BETTY ROCKS taking down the winner's share in this event. She's going to post in good form, recording very compelling speed figs. An excellent choice. This horse looks dangerous considering the high class figures. Don't toss out of any exotics. When starting from the 5 post, a much better than average win percentage has resulted. SOUR GRAPES - Has one of the most respectable win statistics in the pack and may be able to add to those percentages today. Has nice speed figures and definitely has to be thought of for a bet today. SAULSBROOK EVEE - Horoscope said take a chance today, this solid standardbred is as good as any to take a shot with.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Rideau Carleton

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
1	1	HANDSOFFNOSEIN	8/1	Berube, Pascal - 19	405.16
4	4	FRIAR VOLTAIRE	3/1	Gagnon, Jimmy - 14	382.37
7	7	D A PLAYERSDELIGHT	5/2	Gagnon, Guy - 29	370.82
3	3	BESTGIRL IN TOWN	4/1	Pouliot, Stephane - 9	362.90
2	2	HELLAS ROCKET	6/1	Turenne, Sebastien - 2	361.63
8	8	SEAURAT HANOVER	6/1	Shepherd, Robert H - 19	353.05
5	5	THREESIXTYFOUR	10/1	Healey, Mike P - 7	346.24
9	9	SUNDANCE LEYO	12/1	Auger, Marie-Claude - 14	323.05
6	6	HAKA TIMATANGA	15/1	Roy, William - 7	314.98

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Rosecroft Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
6	6	ROCKET MAC	12/1	Porter, Trae - 18	525.67
3	3	NO BETTER JOY	9/2	Foster, Russell - 16	484.45
1	1	CAPTAIN MIKEY	4/1	Moyer, Jared - 8	480.18
2	2	CAPTAIN'S CHOICE	5/2	Milby, Frank - 8	473.97
8	8	RACER PACER	8/1	Roberts, Jonathan - 18	470.60
4	4	Z'S DREAM	6/1	Hanners, Luke - 11	469.61
7	7	BALTIMORE JACK N	10/1	Braden, Corey - 8	465.19
5	5	SHIM	3/1	Walters, Justin - 12	463.61

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Post: 12:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$7250 - NON-WINNERS $4,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 MR COOL SEAEYRE N 7/2
# 1 ECHO DE MEAUTIS FR 7/5
# 3 CONQUEST AS 10/1

Really keen on the probability of MR COOL SEAEYRE N taking down the winner's share here. One of the strongest win percents with this driver/trainer make this gelding dangerous. ECHO DE MEAUTIS FR - The consortium knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This solid standardbred will unlock our way to a nice ultimate prize. This gelding has been racing against some of the most competitive horses in this race of late. CONQUEST AS - Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a big 76 TrackMaster speed fig. Major contender. Gelding and trainer go together like hot dogs and buns. They finish in the money 50 percent of their races.

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 17


Nov. 16, 2024

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (1) Thunderhawk dropped into a claimer for the first time and finished third. Gets a win here at a lower level. (4) Carcar Express is worth a look in a claimer. (3) Waco should be better suited on dirt. (6) Jack’s Promise may respond to a surface switch. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-6.

3rd race – (7) Box Office should wake up and post a win in a claimer. (5) Brewing may welcome a stretchout in distance. (4) Stradivarian could be better off with a surface change. (1) Prince of Power will be aided by a rail trip. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-7.

5th race – (2) Kinzie Queen was second last time and looks best here. (5) Judy’s Flyer should be the main rival. (1) Cat Pays the Toll will be helped by a shorter distance. (8) Spunderella figures to be a threat off a claim. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-8.

7th race – (9) Tickin Time Blonde was second in both career starts and is overdue for a win. (10) Modo is an interesting firster from Amoss. (1) Magical Day debuts for Walsh and cannot be ignored. (3) Catana is another firster who deserves attention. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-9-10.

9^th race - (3) River Ridge was third in his first try against winners and gets the nod here. (1) Lobo Salvaje should get a boost from a ground-saving trip. (4) Quarrymen may be closing quickly at the end. (7) Air Cav can liftoff in this field. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-7.