Monday 11/18/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:46 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 18, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 begins in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:40 PM EST)

5-Blue Hunt (7/2)-Gets some class relief and will look for an aggressive steer from George Brennan. Should get a good stalking trip and be heard from late in the mile.
6-Covered Bridge (8-1)-The classy veteran lands in a soft spot. My take is Jordan Straton will have the pedal down and get on the point. Could wire the field if the start goes well.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

1-Shazam Blue Chip (3-1)-Likes to get the top and control the mile. Jason Bartlett will look to do just that and should be in the hunt at the wire.
2-Rock Diamonds N (5-1)-The Joe Bongiorno entry makes its 3rd start off the bench and wasn’t a threat from post 7 last time. The question is will the 11-year-old need this start as well. When dialed on high the Joe B entry can leave about as fast as the gate car and would be very tough to tackle.
4-Rocknroll Runa A (5/2)-This is a competitive affair, and the classy 7-year-old has been facing tough customers on different size ovals all year. Needs a trip, but Larry Stalbaum can find the right journey and Luna can definitely dance with this group.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

5-Peace Out Posse (8-1)-Recent form has dropped off but this looks like a spot to wake up. Matt Kakaley sticks and has the gate speed to land on the point. Looking for an aggressive steer and could be sitting on a big try.
6-Surfside Beach (9/2)-Team Stratton 4-year-old bumps up in class but still fits. Has been in sharp form and could return to its winning ways. This race could set up for a stalker and its best to respect.
7-LuckbewithAlex (5-1)-The Hudson trainee led from start to finish versus this kind, basically went .28 quarters and hung on for the win. Left from post 5 last time and should be a solid price here. Could get the top with this post draw and maybe this time Anthony Napolitano can back the pace down and double up.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Memphistennessee N (6-1)-Should land on top or in the 2 hole and either could work for a picture. Dropped back to this level in last but was pace compromised. Knows how to beat this kind and needs to be on the ticket at this price.
3-Saddle Up (9/5)-Comes off a gate to wire score leaving from the 1-hole and has a big chance to double up. Returns in sequence against the same kind. There is no reason to think George Brennan won’t show top gate speed again and could wire another field.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

5,6/1,2,4/5,6,7/1,3
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:46 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #4

#1 Turbo Trip	He was a distant runner-up last out when trying two turns for the first time, but that kind of effort looks competitive right back in a spot where he appears to have a pretty solid pace edge. Should roll on the engine.
#4 Convert	Dropper went evenly near the back when trying special weight company last out, but he's probably meant for better while finding this basement crew. Still, it's not like the debut for $15,000 was super sharp. Tough call.
#7 Availability	He's one of the ones who can throw a wrench into the plan here, as he has enough pressing pace to hassle the top choice from the gate. Not thrilled with his first local try, but it did come against a better group.
Race Summary	Turbo Trip looks likely to control the tempo here, and I expect him to find something late if Availability doesn't force the issue too hard too early. Droppers might keep the price moderately playable.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#7 Lady Wellington	Could see her finding a really dreamy spot today while spying a couple of runners who want the front end for their best work, and I like that she has been a real handful in both of her dirt starts in Ohio since coming in from Woodbine. Might have found her home -- makes it three in a row.
#6 Flower Mound	She should get a similar kind of tracking trip to the top choice, but the price might be just a touch shorter. Think she's likely to get first jump while the more serious burners sort things out early.
#2 Getaway Bay	She's got some pretty reliable form and pace, and it wouldn't be a total shock to see her sneak away if the Mountaineer pace player a couple stalls outside of her doesn't push the conversation too much.
Race Summary	Lady Wellington has the kind of tactical pace to adapt to the flow today while racing just a tiny bit behind the splits. She's in sharp form with two easy wins since leaving Woodbine.

Mahoning Valley - Race #9

#7 Delightful Cat	Her last couple haven't been anything to write home about, but she has a couple lines on her page that might stack up OK from a bit off the splits. Price chance in a race without much finishing punch?
#3 Queenofthebuckeye	Her form is honest enough to think she'll give a good account of herself, and she should appreciate not having to face that sharp, in-form winner from her last couple starts.
#1 Forever Uncaptured	Forward player could have a tricky time from the fence, but the better tries might keep her in the picture with these. Price might not match the risk.
Race Summary	Delightful Cat has some midrange price appeal in here while trying to get past some horses late, and the dull recent form should ensure he stays overlooked.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:46 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Parx - Race #1

#7 LA TOURISTA (5-2)	Takes magnified class drop in second start off layoff, today’s Best Bet.
#5 MERCY MERCY (4-1)	Four seconds in $5,000 routes to start year, shortens up, gets Paco.
#2 RAINBOW TROUT (3-1)	Steady check-getter but hasn’t raced since February claim by Lake.
Race Summary	LA TOURISTA stands out in a field that is a combined 4-for-74 this year. She finished third in a pair of $16,000 claiming races at Turfway Park early in the year, facing the likes of recent allowance optional claiming winner Obabe (7-25, $163k) and Lamasco (6-24, $156k). She raced 5-wide in a fast comeback sprint and figures up close in a field that lacks quality speed. Bet to win and place and play 7-2 and 7-5 exactas.

Parx - Race #3

#4 FAUX PAS (3-1)	Ran well in both route attempts, can get jump on her main rivals.
#5 NAPOLITAN (8-5)	Saved ground, dropped back, re-rallied into photo-finish view.
#3 LA DE PELUCHE (5-2)	Two seconds after blinkers were added, unfamiliar ‘lead’ role in latest.
Race Summary	The main contenders reunite after facing each other in a shorter route race October 22. Going with FAUX PAS, who drew an unusual amount of betting support, hustled out of the gate, angled out on the turn to take a brief lead and tired. She can carry his speed farther in this field. Bet to win and place and play 4-3 and 4-5 exactas.

Parx - Race #7

#6 TEMPTING LADY (5-2)	Well-traveled 3yo arrives at Parx off claim, alert start the key.
#4 LADY SIRACHA (2-1)	Solid numbers, drops, wears blinkers again after pair of minor placings.
#7 SWEET DISTRACTION (10-1)	Back-pedaled in MSW sprint, ‘narrowed gap’ in lone start for a tag.
Race Summary	TEMPTING LADY rallied from far back after slow starts to finish in the money in back-to-back sprints from which she was claimed. She goes an extra half-furlong for a barn in the midst of a 5-for-15 run with maiden claimers. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:47 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race 8	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Late Daily Double
Starter Allowance $20,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 5:46P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $20,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 18 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT NECESSARY TO TAKE THIS RACE OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 1 MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BROCK ON BY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BROCK ON BY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SPEIGHTSVILLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. THAT'S NOT FUNNY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designat ion or an "L" designation. TEAM LEADER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	BROCK ON BY	6/1	3/1
7	SPEIGHTSVILLE	7/2	8/1
5	THAT'S NOT FUNNY	15/1	8/1
6	TEAM LEADER	5/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BROCK ON BY	1	6/1	Front-runner	102	89	90.4	96.6	92.1
3	GOOD SWIMMER	3	5/1	Stalker	96	83	80.0	87.2	77.2
6	TEAM LEADER	6	5/2	Stalker	96	95	76.3	86.4	77.4
7	SPEIGHTSVILLE	7	7/2	Stalker	103	93	73.0	91.8	82.8
4	MANDOLIN WIND	4	4/1	Trailer	96	88	72.8	91.0	80.5
5	THAT'S NOT FUNNY	5	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	101	94	88.6	91.4	84.4
9	GREATHEART	9	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	91	87	87.0	84.6	73.1
8	TRULY DANZIG	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	101	87	75.6	86.0	76.0
2	SARGE'S SERMON	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	84	73.6	79.2	64.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:47 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 7-8) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 66 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 3:04P
FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $75,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SAPELLO LA FINA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SAPELLO LA FINA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. WELCOMETOHOLLYWOOD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. A THOUSAND MILES: Horse ra nks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FREYA'S ARROW: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 5 0. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
2	SAPELLO LA FINA	5/2	6/1
1	WELCOMETOHOLLYWOOD	7/2	6/1
3	A THOUSAND MILES	3/1	6/1
4	FREYA'S ARROW	5/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SAPELLO LA FINA	2	5/2	Front-runner	61	53	57.7	50.9	43.9
6	LITTLE BIT TIPSY	6	4/1	Stalker	61	54	61.5	46.1	36.6
3	A THOUSAND MILES	3	3/1	Stalker	72	57	52.9	50.9	46.4
1	WELCOMETOHOLLYWOOD	1	7/2	Stalker	69	61	42.8	56.8	51.3
4	FREYA'S ARROW	4	5/1	Trailer	57	59	54.0	55.9	51.4
5	MEGA HEART	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	52	50.2	8.5	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:47 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31500 Class Rating: 77

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 18, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 WHY FOR 8/1
# 5 MI PRINCESA 15/1
# 6 ART CURATOR 7/2

I've got to go with WHY FOR particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Has quite good front speed and will probably fare well versus this field. Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group in her last contest. MI PRINCESA - Aldavaz has one of the best winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. ART CURATOR - Ran a solid last race. Has to be given a chance against this field displaying competitive numbers lately and an average speed figure of 53 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:48 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 1:53pm - Maiden Special - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#7 CAROUSEL QUEEN (ML=8/1)
#3 ALYVIA MAVIS (ML=3/1)
#2 MARY LOVES LOUIE (ML=15/1)

CAROUSEL QUEEN - This filly was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event. ALYVIA MAVIS - This filly is in top condition right now. Finished second last time out and comes back promptly. MARY LOVES LOUIE - Using this jockey/handler combination is a smart move.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MAXIMUS ANGELICUS (ML=4/5), #5 VAGUE (ML=6/1), #6 FUR ELISE (ML=6/1),

MAXIMUS ANGELICUS - October 22nd is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. VAGUE - Awfully tough to wager on this racer when she hasn't been showing any signs of readiness of late. This steed ran a disappointing speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat today running that fig. FUR ELISE - This come from behinder should have a rough go of it to get up with the shortage of pace in this race. Somewhat easily forgotten rating last time out at Delaware Park at 1 mile. Don't think this mount will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 CAROUSEL QUEEN to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:48 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 60

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MAY 18. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SARAH JANE 7/2
# 1 VILLAGE CAT 2/1
# 5 CHLOES ANGEL 3/1

I've got to go with SARAH JANE. Her 50 average has this mare with among the most competitive speed figures in this race. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. Has been running soundly lately and should be close to the lead early on. VILLAGE CAT - Recently Radosevich has provided risk takers with a strong winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Looks very good to be on the lead at the first call. CHLOES ANGEL - Rivera has a reliable 17 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Shows solid speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:48 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 54

Rating:

#7 WILD KATZLENE (ML=9/5)

WILD KATZLENE - A horse coming back this quickly after a nice outing is a good signal. That 46 fig this filly earned in her last affair tells me she's a chief player this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CASSOULET (ML=3/1), #2 COURT COSTS (ML=5/1), #1 TEST YOUR FAITH (ML=6/1),

CASSOULET - You believe this equine is going to finish first just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top frequently. COURT COSTS - Couldn't close at all on November 12th. Hard to wager on today at the expected odds. TEST YOUR FAITH - This mare is always hitting the board, but just doesn't finish first. Tough to bet on her on the front end. This sustainer looks to have no chance without an early battle on the top end. Most unsatisfactory speed rating last time around the track at Mountaineer Park at 1 mile. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 WILD KATZLENE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-18-2024, 06:49 AM

IntPicks

Free pick of the day
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
1 Star
10:00 PM ET
Idaho St @ CS Fullerton
Take Idaho St +1.5

**ConleyPicks** · 11-18-2024, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 2:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$5900 - F& M NW $500 PS L5 OR PS IN 2024 AE: NW 7 PM LT $8900 PC LS AE:$8000 CLM W/A M MERTON 2 OVER 3

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 MYSTICAL GAL 7/2
# 7 THE CHARGING MOA N 9/2
# 2 SUGE 5/2

MYSTICAL GAL more than likely gets the edge as the standardbred to beat here. Hard to put finger on it, but support her here. Worth considering here if only for the really strong TrackMaster speed fig earned in the last race. This trainer, and the driver Merton, go together like a hand in a glove. Their results together are fantastic. THE CHARGING MOA N - This entrant looks strong. Look at the 77 avg TrackMaster Speed Rating. A nice class horse cannot be glossed over. With an avg class rating of 75 all signs point to yes. SUGE - Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 75 TrackMaster SR. The consortium will always toss in a fine animal from the 2 position here at Monticello Raceway, definitely worth a look.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-18-2024, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Woodbine Mohawk Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
7	7	SAUBLE ACE	8/1	Mcclure, Bob - 12	562.06
6	6	TREACHEROUS TOM	6/1	Jamieson, Jody C - 11	552.78
3	3	BROOKDALE MIKI	7/2	Macdonald, James A - 22	543.97
5	5	JADENSMAGICSTEEL	2/1	Mcnair, Douglas R - 18	539.84
2	2	DR JOE	10/1	Borth, Tyler J - 10	535.65
1	1	ULYSSES	10/1	Roy, Louis-Philippe - 18	530.69
4	4	HES SWIFT	5/1	Ryan, Jason D - 6	513.86
8	8	B STONEY	5/2	Henry, Trevor S - 11	512.88

**ConleyPicks** · 11-18-2024, 09:17 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Pocono Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 3
4	4	SELINA'S CHOICE	7/2	Napolitano, Anthony - 16	413.74
5	5	SPACE CADEBT	8/1	Whelan, Michael - 13	400.94
6	6	BE YOUR BEST	12/1	Warren, Ridge - 9	387.05
3	3	BELLE BRIELLE	3/1	Kennedy, James - 14	385.59
7	7	PAPAYA HANOVER	5/2	Kakaley, Matt - 21	382.58
1	1	U-C-DEE-U-C-ANNIE	9/2	Boyd, Braxten - 14	367.76
2	2	FOREVER A FLIRT	6/1	Buter, Tyler - 16	303.50

**ConleyPicks** · 11-18-2024, 09:17 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 12:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$9000 - FILLIES & MARES - $12,500 CLAIMING ALLOWANCE SARATOGA

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 AP BLAZE OF GLORY 9/2
# 1 ROLL WITH KAY 10/1
# 3 SHAKE ME LOOSE 4/1

All signs point to AP BLAZE OF GLORY for the selection. This nice horse has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 78 average class number. Should play well in here. When Gray drives this race horse you can bet they'll be in the top 3, figures show them there 100 percent of the time. ROLL WITH KAY - Worth careful consideration here given the figures in the speed fig department alone. Should be given a look based on the competitive TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in the last contest. SHAKE ME LOOSE - Devaux is racking up the wins lately. Outstanding win pct makes this fine animal our play. Take a look at this standardbred's average speed rating of 80 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a formidable wager.