Tuesday 11/19/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#5 Blushing Betty	Her very best game might be on the front end, but she also has the ability to shut off just a little and stay on if a couple others want to have a go on the engine. She has been decent here in the past, and it doesn't hurt that this rider has been running circles around this colony in sprints so far this season.
#1 Stacy Attack	She just missed with similar a couple starts back, so she's obviously in the mix with this kind of crew again while getting out of a tougher spot last out. She's one of the ones, but I worry the rail will complicate things in a spot where she doesn't have a big margin for error in an evenly matched race.
#10 Reno Touch	Could see her settling just a touch further off the pace today than we've seen in some recent starts, but that might still leave her in a decent spying spot from this wide draw.
Race Summary	Blushing Betty has a lot of things working in her favor here, and she might find a perfect first-jump kind of trip today. Decent lean.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#3 Hitsville	I think the chalk on the fence is going to hit hard today, but I also thought this guy might turn in something just a bit better last time out. Going to give him another chance at what should be an OK price if the favorite gets bet like he usually does.
#1 Moreau	Something like either of his last two would probably do the job today, but the price is going to be short, and I'm not sure the gap is huge between his current form and the top choice's better stuff.
#2 Stirdatpot	Pace could have just enough company to keep things honest, but he also looks like the most committed forward player, giving him at least some chance to run these off their feet.
Race Summary	Hitsville has pretty reliable form, and he might be able to find a decent spot spying a couple quicker players early. Grinds past late?

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#4 Here Comes Dolly	There aren't that many true two-turn horses in this field, and this one stretches out for the third start off the break with two sprints under her belt and some route form that looks particularly appealing from last season.
#7 Tierney	She wouldn't be any surprise with this group, but she also tends to settle for a lot of underneath shares and could be set to do the same again today at an underwhelming price.
#1 Az We Speak	She'll go long for the first time, but I expect her to handle the trip well enough. Main worry is that she's a question mark there, and the price won't be that interesting. Fits on talent.
Race Summary	Here Comes Dolly might be ready for better while getting back around two turns where she thrived here last season, and the price might be OK thanks to the dull form so far this fall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#2 ENGLISH DANGER (2-1)	Major danger taking magnified class drop for Diodoro, today’s Best Bet.
#4 POCKET KNIFE (8-1)	In top form, could stalk and pounce on lively pace, adds value to gimmicks.
#5 ANNIE FOX (3-1)	Sped away to 5F MSW victory at Fresno, sheds 5 pounds, runs okay fresh.
Race Summary	ENGLISH DANGER’S lone win on turf was in a five-horse field, but the California invader could overpower this field on the switch to the Diodoro barn. She was squeezed into the first turn and lacked stretch kick against better at Santa Anita last out, but she should benefit from a good pace set-up in this one. Make a flat win bet and play 3-4 and 3-5 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#6 GOOD BYE CHARLIE (4-1)	Good record locally, should sit ideal trip if good enough.
#3 LOVE MY JIMMY (5-2)	Seeks return to gangbuster early-season form after five months away.
#5 GOLDEN ALE (6-1)	Starts fresh after pair of dull allowance tries, merits second look.
Race Summary	With plenty of pace to run at, GOODBYE CHARLIE is a good value play with a 5-for-10 record at Turf Paradise to summon on his return to town. He followed the move of 1-to-2 repeat winner Durango Jess at Albuquerque and finished third while carrying 128 pounds. Bet to win and place and play a 3-5-6 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #6

#6 DUKUDYLAN (6-1)	Beat odds-on fave in four-horse field to win at Emerald, tries turf for first time.
#4 CROSS THE CAUSEWAY (7-2)	Improved as gelding, though twice-beaten fave at Canterbury recently.
#3 MOESAHANDFUL (5-2)	At proper level but soundly beaten in both starts on the grass.
Race Summary	DEKUDYLAN exchanged stretch bumps with a 3-to-5 first-time starter but held on to break his maiden on the drop from Maiden Special Weight company. His dam was winless in 13 starts on the lawn but he can repeat if he handles the surface switch. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 4	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 4-7) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $12,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 1:26P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BRIGHT KOHANA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BRIGHT KOHANA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. SURVIVAL R OSE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DESIGNATED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Goo d Race within the last 30 days.
9	BRIGHT KOHANA	3/1	9/2
5	SURVIVAL ROSE	4/1	6/1
3	DESIGNATED	6/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	BRIGHT KOHANA	9	3/1	Front-runner	69	66	59.4	62.8	52.8
2	ANNIEWORKSTOOMUCH	2	6/1	Stalker	63	53	67.2	53.4	38.9
5	SURVIVAL ROSE	5	4/1	Stalker	75	69	63.2	62.4	54.9
10	PRETTY LILY	10	10/1	Stalker	63	40	48.2	46.4	32.4
8	UNION BELLE	8	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	67	63	55.0	60.4	52.4
7	ONE OF THE ONES	7	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	61	32.8	57.8	48.8
3	DESIGNATED	3	6/1	Trailer	70	72	44.2	65.6	63.6
6	SECRET LIFE	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	57	58.5	48.2	35.7
1	MOONLIT MAGIC	1	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	58	49.6	49.6	37.6
4	BROOKLYN HEIGHTS	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	53	44.6	50.8	32.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 2-3) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $17,500 • Post: 1:10P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JAVIERS HUSTLE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. BASKING: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. JESS MY DYNASTY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equiba se Speed Rating. EEMA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. KIARA STONE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	JAVIERS HUSTLE	3/1	5/1
11	BASKING	6/1	6/1
10	JESS MY DYNASTY	5/2	7/1
3	EEMA	5/1	8/1
12	KIARA STONE	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JUST COLD CORONA	1	15/1	Slow	65	64	9.3	0.0	0.0
2	STORM SIGN	2	20/1	Average	69	69	5.2	0.0	0.0
3	EEMA	3	5/1	Fast	71	73	1.9	0.0	0.0
4	TH DARLINE DEL RIO	4	6/1	Slow	67	60	7.1	0.0	0.0
5	APOLLITICAL ROYALTY	5	12/1	Average	66	67	5.8	0.0	0.0
6	PRINCE SHASTA	6	20/1	Slow	71	58	7.7	0.0	0.0
7	JAVIERS HUSTLE	7	3/1	Fast	82	76	3.0	0.0	0.0
8	TRES COUTURE	8	6/1	Fast	60	68	2.3	0.0	0.0
9	PAKEA KEIKI	9	15/1	Average	69	63	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	JESS MY DYNASTY	10	5/2	Average	79	67	4.5	0.0	0.0
11	BASKING	11	6/1	Average	82	77	4.3	0.0	0.0
12	KIARA STONE	12	5/1	Average	73	72	4.7	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #5 - Post: 2:36pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,500 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#11 MANNFORD (ML=8/1)
#10 MUCHO PRIMO (ML=12/1)
#6 UPGRADE AL (ML=9/2)


MANNFORD - Last race at Thistledown on Sep 4th was a big class drop for this equine. Facing similar foes right here. He should do well this time around. This racer earns a lot of dough per start. I believe he can increase the lifetime total in this race. MUCHO PRIMO - Entered a $15,000 Claiming race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in the last race and raced on a sloppy track finishing fifth. Will most certainly do better in this event. UPGRADE AL - Finished fourth at Thistledown last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 9/2 in today's race, he looks like a possible contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 OAKEN (ML=3/1), #2 HONOR THE D (ML=7/2), #7 GOOD MUSIC (ML=6/1),

OAKEN - This gelding is always close, but just doesn't finish on top. Hard to play him on the win end. HONOR THE D - This gelding raced very, very well on Sep 21st winding up second, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign. Doubtful that the speed rating he registered on September 21st will hold up in this race. GOOD MUSIC - Recorded a disappointing speed rating last time out in a $15,000 Claiming race on Oct 29th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #11 MANNFORD to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,10,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,10,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14200 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 CALL THE BALL 4/1
# 1 CAPTURETHELAUGHTER 5/1
# 2 ROAD TO STARDOM 2/1

I've got to go with CALL THE BALL. Could best this field here, showing very strong figs of late. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this gelding. Is worth taking a close look at and may be a wager - strong speed figures (73 average) at today's distance and surface lately. CAPTURETHELAUGHTER - The Equibase Speed Figure of 83 from his last race looks competitive in here. Has to be considered against this group displaying competitive figs lately and an average speed figure of 73 under similar conditions. ROAD TO STARDOM - Looks to have a solid class edge based on the latest company kept. Has put up formidable Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OVER A MILE SINCE AUGUST 19, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TACTICAL ATTACK 3/1
# 2 TIMEHASCOME 10/1
# 11 COYSTER 7/2

I think TACTICAL ATTACK is a respectable choice. Have to love when any animal makes a quick turnaround. A solid 93 avg class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group. Has performed well lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 80 avg Equibase speed fig. TIMEHASCOME - He has been racing soundly recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. I like the jockey on this gelding - solid chance to win the contest. COYSTER - Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figs of this group of animals in his last race. Has solid Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet for this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Remington Park - Race #4 - Post: 3:54pm - SO - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#6 LA MORENA (ML=3/1)


LA MORENA - This mare is almost always in-the-money. When this rider and conditioner unite you have to take a look. Diego and Cravens have been great together.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 THETRUTHISTHETRUTH (ML=5/2), #3 EUTYCHIA (ML=4/1), #7 ITSONLYMONEYHONEY (ML=9/2),

THETRUTHISTHETRUTH - This morning-line favorite hasn't been to the track in awhile. No workouts since last race. Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance contests in order to wager on her. EUTYCHIA - When looking at today's Equibase class figure, she will have to notch a much better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. ITSONLYMONEYHONEY - This mare is always around, but just doesn't win. Tough to wager on her on the win end.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 LA MORENA on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass