Wednesday 11/20/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #1

#2 Citizen Judy	Not sure the price is going to be very appealing, but she's got some pace in a spot where those who have raced have not flashed much speed. She's always a threat to quit late, but I think she can speed pop this group at this longer trip.
#6 Evalina	Something like the debut run would probably keep her in the picture today, and maybe the change of scenery will wake her up a little bit for the new team off that dull try last out.
#10 Bonita Song	Wouldn't be surprised to see this one ready enough to make some noise in a bad spot. Guessing she's reasonably spotted with these.
Race Summary	Citizen Judy has shown very little interest in finishing her races, but she drops into the easiest spot she has seen so far with what looks like a decent pace edge on most of these. Let's see if she can get brave on the engine.

Churchill Downs - Race #3

#7 Super Snoop	Could see there being a little upside here while getting around two turns at second asking, and a one-paced kind of run going long might be enough in a modest race.
#2 Il Marchesse	He took a nice step forward in that second try, and he should be in line for another good trip right near the top. Mild concern about the way he has given away ground late in both starts, but he might be fixing that issue through natural progression.
#1 Coalmoon	Wouldn't be any surprise to see this guy land it while coming out of a good effort in a decent race, but I worry he's going to get bet hard today.
Race Summary	Super Snoop has some price appeal while going second out, as I think he can come forward with a more modest tempo to work with today at this route trip.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#10 Category Ten	Reliable type has a little positional speed in a race without much early burn, and the recent Fanduel running line might help keep the price playable today. Perfect tracking trip?
#8 Rocco Strong	Forward player should be in the mix throughout, and he's getting some class relief after failing to stay late for twice this price last out. Not sure the risk/reward balance is going to be there on the tote, though.
#7 Koselio	Not sure he's good enough with this crew, but he's almost surely capable of something better than the Keeneland clunker, and he might end up in a decent enough spying spot.
Race Summary	Category Ten has some appeal at a midrange price here, and he should land himself a dreamy spot watching this unfold.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#6 DAGGER RANCH (5-2)	Cali invader could take catching, new barn strong on sprint-to-route angle.
#5 BEARINGS (2-1)	Second at Saratoga and Santa Anita in last pair, looms as short price.
#1 DRIVE TRAIN (5-1)	Chased winner from up close when second at Emerald Downs at this distance.
Race Summary	DAGGER RANCH leaves the Baffert barn and Maiden Special Weight ranks for his first start locally. He zipped 4F in :47 flat over the track and should control the pace a long way in his first route attempt. Bet to win and place and play a 6/1,5/ALL trifecta.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#1 YOU ENJOY MYSELF (3-1)	Consistent sprinter finished game second in last two 6F sprints at TuP.
#4 SAINT PIO (5-1)	Solid numbers in Canada but the beaten favorite in 4 of his last 7 starts.
#3 PARTY FOUL (7-2)	Showed good speed at Emerald Downs, starts fresh off :35-4/5 workout here.
Race Summary	YOU ENJOY MYSELF was ‘fueled’ early, led briefly and tired late in a long sprint at Albequerque. He finished first or second in 8 of 14 starts at various venues and shortens up to a favorable distance. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#8 ELUSIVE LOVE (4-1)	Went idle after hitting best stride in the spring, will be running late.
#6 EVER A REBEL (7-5)	Romped in five-horse field at Emerald, back-pedaled on class rise in latest.
#4 ATOMIC CANDY (4-1)	Met good starter allowance foes since claim, wouldn’t expect 4-1.
Race Summary	ELUSIVE LOVE was in top form when he finished 1-2 from posts 10 and 11, respectively, when last seen in April. But he fits the conditions well for his return and can win if he’s ready off two recent workouts. Bet to win and place and play a 6-8 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race 8	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5
Starter Allowance $30,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $56,000 • Post: 4:25P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $30,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. RAGING is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RAGING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. SHOGUN BE FAST: Horse h as run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. OWN THE FIELD: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	RAGING	3/1	3/1
7	SHOGUN BE FAST	6/1	7/1
6	OWN THE FIELD	7/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	RAGING	8	3/1	Front-runner	88	89	90.4	90.4	82.4
7	SHOGUN BE FAST	7	6/1	Front-runner	91	87	75.0	80.2	67.2
1	ROUSSETTE	1	8/1	Stalker	92	83	83.4	78.4	67.9
9	MUCHO MOJO	9	12/1	Stalker	94	85	59.6	82.2	73.2
6	OWN THE FIELD	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	97	93	75.9	85.0	79.0
5	HARLEEZY	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	86	72.0	85.8	77.8
4	CAWKAB	4	10/1	Trailer	92	81	77.3	79.9	68.9
3	I'M YOUR MAN	3	10/1	Trailer	99	85	69.0	79.8	65.8
2	ATLANTIC DANCER	2	5/1	Trailer	93	98	62.0	81.5	72.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 2	Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races2-3)($1 min.)/ Pick 3 (Races 2-4)/ Pick 4 (Races 2-5 )
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 5:18P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. LOUISIANA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ASTROLOGY GIRL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ASTROLOGY GIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at t he distance/surface. GIRL LIKES BLING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CALERA LOVE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating a t least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
5	ASTROLOGY GIRL	5/2	3/1
7	GIRL LIKES BLING	7/2	6/1
10	CALERA LOVE	8/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	ASTROLOGY GIRL	5	5/2	Front-runner	67	59	82.2	60.8	57.3
1	SHE'S EXTRA	1	15/1	Front-runner	42	40	72.2	35.2	20.2
10	CALERA LOVE	10	8/1	Front-runner	66	56	70.6	48.6	41.6
2	CHARGED UP ROSE	2	20/1	Front-runner	59	53	57.2	25.9	10.9
7	GIRL LIKES BLING	7	7/2	Front-runner	67	64	56.8	52.8	47.8
3	SAINT ISABEL	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	59	55	47.2	55.4	46.9
6	REAL DEAL RYAN	6	12/1	Trailer	62	46	24.2	49.2	38.2
9	STAND BY TIME	9	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	57	53	40.4	45.6	34.1
4	LONG LEGGED LADY	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	46	44	38.8	31.6	15.1
8	RAGAZZA	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	47	38	28.0	33.6	17.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13800 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SAILINGTHEISLANDS 4/1
# 10 KEEPING IT SIMPLE 20/1
# 8 VINO VELOCE 6/1

SAILINGTHEISLANDS supports the wager in here. With a solid 62 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. Strong average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a key contender. KEEPING IT SIMPLE - May wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. Will almost certainly come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved promptly to the lead recently. VINO VELOCE - Shows solid Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. Posted a very good speed rating last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #6 - Post: 9:05pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,300 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#4 NIGHTTIME JUSTICE (ML=3/1)


NIGHTTIME JUSTICE - This mare is in nice form, having run a good race on November 13th, finishing first. This jock/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +31. Classic handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Should run a big one here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 ICE FLOE (ML=8/5), #5 U SO MONEY BABY (ML=5/2), #3 CLAIRE'S DARLING (ML=8/1),

ICE FLOE - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. Can't really back the public's choice when she has multiple failures as the public's top choice. U SO MONEY BABY - Finished fourth last time. Would have to perk up to be on the board in today's event. Don't think this steed will make an impact today. That last speed fig was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure. CLAIRE'S DARLING - This steed ran a substandard rating last race out. She shouldn't run better and will probably lose in today's race running that number.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - NIGHTTIME JUSTICE - I'm always on the lookout for this handicapping theory. A sprinter on the immediate comeback.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 NIGHTTIME JUSTICE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 95

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 JOHNNY DAR 7/2
# 4 CIBERTRUCK 5/1
# 3 PAID IN FULL 9/2

JOHNNY DAR is my choice. Silva has a strong 23 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Has respectable early lick and ought to fare soundly versus this field. CIBERTRUCK - Is a definite contender - given the 86 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. Formidable average speed figures in turf route races make this animal a definite contender. PAID IN FULL - Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (82 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Don't let this gelding slip past you. Could win at a big price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#6 RUNYONESQUE (ML=4/1)
#3 DISTURBED (ML=12/1)
#10 MY DEVILS CHILD (ML=12/1)
#4 SWING OIL (ML=8/1)


RUNYONESQUE - Martinez and Padilla partnered with one another are a horseplayer's friend. This gelding has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's contest. DISTURBED - I'm anticipating this race horse to run a good race this time around. MY DEVILS CHILD - Guerrero brings him back again. I suggest you stick with this live gelding. SWING OIL - Padilla brings him back again. I propose you stay with this live gelding. You always have to be on the watch for revenue generating jockey/trainer duos; we have it right here. It looks like Rivera had to learn about this gelding on November 6th when riding him for the first time. Back on board again today. Racing over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this one at the top of my list of contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SWIFT TAP (ML=7/2), #5 CASH NOW (ML=9/2), #9 REJECTED AGAIN (ML=6/1),

SWIFT TAP - No picnic to wager on any thoroughbred in a short distance race at 7/2 when he hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last couple of months. CASH NOW - Today's race is 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint contest in the last 60 days. Not the best of indicators. Didn't do alot last out. Probably won't make an impact in today's event. REJECTED AGAIN - Hard to take this pony at the odds after the finish (fifth) in the last event. There's early zip, early speed, and more zip in this race. Doesn't look too good for this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 RUNYONESQUE on the win end if we get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[rocky57]

Steve Merril CBB Grand Canyon

[rocky57]

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