Saturday 11/23/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**rocky57** · 11-20-2024, 04:33 PM

Teddy Covers CFB Texas A&M
Adds
CFB Ohio State

**rocky57** · 11-20-2024, 04:34 PM

Bryan Power CFB Wyoming

**rocky57** · 11-21-2024, 11:38 AM

Art Diceare from the Westgate risk supervisor
CFB Sharp Bets from there Sharp players so far
Ohio State
Air Force
Army
Mississippi

Heavy Public Sides so far
Colorado
Texas A&M
BYU

**rocky57** · 11-21-2024, 01:23 PM

Kyle Anthony UFC/MMA
Yan by points +120
Oezdemir +200

**rocky57** · 11-21-2024, 01:25 PM

Marco D'Angelo CFB UConn +10.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 07:58 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - Nov. 23, 2024

November 23, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Del Mar

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 2-Ultra Power
Back-ups:: none.

Forecast: Ultra Power returns to Del Mar, where two races back he crushed a two-turn allowance field with a Grade-1 type speed figure. Unfortunately, he didn’t run quite that well in his next outing at Santa Anita when he appeared to struggle with the surface and wound up third, beaten a neck, while lacking the acceleration through the lane that he had displayed in his previous outing. Today, over the Del Mar main surface for this year’s renewal of the Native Diver Stakes-G2, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Curlin should be set to show his best stuff, so at 2-1 on the morning line he’ll offer reasonable wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 2-Mysterious Husband
Back-ups: none.

Forecast: In his first start following a $62,500 claim by trainer M. Glatt, Mysterious Husband not unexpectedly produced a serious forward move when finishing a game second over this course at 34-1 facing straight maidens while earning by far a career top speed figure. The son of Audible is drawn nicely inside, shortens to a flat mile, retains A. Fresu, and looks ready to graduate with nothing more than a repeat of his last race. The pace flow should allow him to draft into a second flight, ground-saving position and have every chance to seal the deal. At or near his morning line at 5/2, he represents a strong win play on the tote and a major push in rolling exotic play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 07:59 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Early Pick 4 Analysis

November 23, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Hawthorne Racecourse has a 10-race card. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 3, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 3 (7:50 PM CST)

2-Jewels For Champ (2-1)-Put in flat lines in 3 of the last 4 at Haw and a fast track should help the cause. The race probably goes through the Erv Miller pupil but needs to stay flat. Will assume breaking stride won't be a concern because the only recent miscue came on a sloppy track.
6-Pacific Roll (9/5)-My take is the morning line isn't right, and the 5-year-old shouldn't be favored. But this is the first time for Casey Leonard to take the lines and could work a live stalking trip. Should be within reach if #2 goes dancing.

Race 4 (8:10 PM CST)

2-Dialogue (1/1)-This 2-year-old is a cut above the rest and has his hit the board in 8 of 10 this year with 4 pictures. Comes off a big win on NOC in 152.2 with a 26.3 last panel and it wasn't the smoothest of trips. Should take care of this bunch at a tiny price.

Race 5 (8:30 PM CST)

1-Frontier Macho (5-1)-The Simmons trainee is improving but it is risky to use from the rail. Could make some noise at a solid price with an efficient trip if minds its manners.
5-Louise's Legacy (3/2)-The team Miller freshman has won 2 straight and the last was in a new lifetime mark (156.4). Doesn't need to be on the lead every step of the way to win but Marcus Miller could look to get on the engine here.
6-Sunburnt Silverado (3-1)-Went off as the even money chalk on NOC and broke stride at the start. The trainer sat behind him in last and put in a flat line. Casey Leonard, the usual pilot, returns but might be overlooked tonight. Would need its best but could get the pocket and trip out.

Race 6 (8:50 PM CST)

4-Marvelous Mystery (9/2)-Came 2nd versus this kind in last and has won 8 of 10 at Stickney. Comes right back in sequence and should be a player but not feeling the morning line price will hold up.
6-Loulita (3-1)-Landed in the pocket and could not catch a well-rated winner last time. Will fade the 9/5 choice #5 who has broken stride in the last 2 starts. This mare has won 6 of 15 in 2024 and should be in the hunt at the wire.

$2.00 Early Pick 4

2,6/2/1,5,6/4,6
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 07:59 AM

Scott Shapiro: Saturday Churchill Downs Spot Plays | Nov. 23

November 22, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Just two more Saturdays left in 2024 at Churchill Downs with the Stars of Tomorrow II card next weekend. This 11-race slate is headlined by a pair of Grade 3’s, a number of high-quality 2YO events, and a trio of challenging Pick 5 sequences. Here are a few horses I am building my day around:

Race 4:

My first play comes in this $50k maiden claimer over the main track, which kicks off a middle Pick 5. #3 Levee Was Dry makes his fourth career start, first off the claim for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, after a strong runner-up effort against lesser in his first start in over a year. In that November 10 run over the off track here at Churchill Downs, this Maclean’s Music gelding found a good spot early and put forth a career best effort, but the winner got the jump. What I like most is Asmussen’s willingness to raise this one up in class despite it being the end of the meet. It would be easy to run him right back for $20-$30k, but instead he shows a ton of confidence in his new runner. Expect a step forward here with Steve’s son, Erik jumping aboard.

Play: #3 Levee Was Dry (4-1 ML)

Race 7:

#7 Sea Vista is listed as the 5-2-morning line favorite off of a runner-up effort this summer at Saratoga, but I much prefer 3-1-second choice #10 Mo Quality. The Chris Davis trainee also makes his second start, but comes back on normal rest after an encouraging runner-up effort to odds-on favorite Touchy in a similar spot at Keeneland last month. In that debut, this Mo Town colt broke a touch slow and traveled wide on the far turn and into the lane on a day where the inside was the place to be. Davis comes in having won 23% of his starts over the last 90 days with a strong $2.59 ROI and lures Tyler Gaffalione. Gaff jumping aboard for the first time may not help our price, but it certainly will not hurt our chances.

Play: #10 Mo Quality (3-1 ML)

Race 8: Chilukki (G3)

There is no question #4 Two Sharp is the one to beat in this one-mile event for the ladies over the main track. The Rigney Racing filly has never finished worse than second and projects to be on the lead with Junior Alvarado aboard. That said, I have concerns at a short price. First, trainer Phil Bauer adds blinkers off a win, which obviously works sometimes, but can also mean she has lost focus in the mornings amongst other possible negatives. Plus, she is going much further than she ever has before. These worries would be easier to get by if she was not 2-1 on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line. Therefore, I will take a swing against with #5 Royal Spa. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset has been on quite a roll winning with 21 of 74 starters over the last 90 days for a $1.93 ROI. He brings this filly who has earned 2 of her career victories into this one after shaking off the rust at Keeneland last out when she was up too close to the early pace in a four-horse fourth-level allowance event. Expect Flavien Prat to sit more mid-pack on this daughter of Violence this time around. She should be a square price in the first of two stakes races on the agenda.

Play: #5 Royal Spa (8-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 08:00 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Laurel Money-Back Special Stakes Picks | Saturday

November 21, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Laurel Park presents a trio of stakes races Saturday and players on 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of a $10 money-back special on those features. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third in the Dave’s Friend, Richard W. Small and Willa On the Move Stakes.

Let’s take a look at each.

Laurel Park: Race 4 (1:58 pm ET) | $100,000 Willa On the Move Stakes

Logical players in this 6-1/2 furlong distaff sprint are #5 Simply Stated and #6 Ms. Bucchero. Trainer Brittany Russell has been flirting with 40% at the Laurel meet and she got this one to run a big allowance comebacker last out after 6 months on the sideline. She could get locked in the pace with Ms. Bucchero, wire-to-wire winner of the same-trip/track Alma North Stakes in July. She’s freshened 2 months and has an advantageous widest draw in a short field of 6. The logical one who could sit and pounce would be #1 Olivia Darling, though she’s cross-entered Sunday at Gulfstream and iffy to travel.

Laurel Park: Race 7 (3:31 pm ET) | $100,000 Dave’s Friend Stakes

I had the fortune of being trackside for #4 Dean Delivers’ DeFrancis Dash victory this summer at Laurel and he returns to the same scene over the same 6-furlong trip as the horse to beat. He set the pace in the Grade 3 Vosburgh and finished a credible third vs. tougher while snapping a 4-race win streak. The pace doesn’t look overwhelmingly fast, so expect him to be 1-2 throughout. Trainer Ned Allard’s barn has been cold at Laurel since September, so late-running #3 Witty might be a shrewd play here with the money-back offer. He’s 5-for-5 in the exacta at Laurel, including a fast, 6-furlong win last out. Yes, his deep-closing style poses some risk, but that’s where the second or third-place insurance in the promo could provide safety.

Laurel Park: Race 8 (4:02 pm ET) | $100,000 Richard W. Small Stakes

Arguably the most competitively deep of the Laurel stakes on Saturday, this field of 8 includes Jamie Ness stablemates #5 Magic Michael and #6 Excellorator. While Excellorator has won 3 of 4 with a second since coming to the Ness barn, it’s Magic Michael that attracts the outfit’s A-rider in Jaime Rodriguez. Both have won over the 1-1/8 miles assignment. A bullet Parx workout November 16 might be the ‘tell’ for Rodriguez taking the call on Magic Michael. #3 Mosler Time had no excuse as controlling speed in the Maryland Million Classic and should have a no-excuse trip again from his draw and race shape. Late-running sophomore Copper Tax won the Federico Tesio over this track and trip in April and will be the late threat. While I don’t think he’s the most likely winner, the ease of trip, expected fair price and insurance to hold for second or third money-back makes #3 Mosler Time the most intriguing gamble.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 08:00 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 4	Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races4-5)($1 min.)/ Pick 3 (Races 4-6)
Claiming $10,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 6:14P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 23 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MINOR DISCREPANCY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. GRACIOUS KAT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. VOYANT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	MINOR DISCREPANCY	5/2	3/1
5	GRACIOUS KAT	5/1	7/1
4	VOYANT	6/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	QUICK ZONG	1	15/1	Front-runner	61	61	59.4	46.2	34.2
8	MINOR DISCREPANCY	8	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	89	80	49.2	70.6	63.6
7	MIDNIGHT HUNTER	7	15/1	Stalker	76	72	60.6	53.0	42.0
3	VERACRUZIN	3	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	75	72	66.9	69.4	64.4
5	GRACIOUS KAT	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	72	57.0	70.0	64.5
6	RITE ON SAM	6	8/1	Trailer	67	61	35.4	48.0	37.0
4	VOYANT	4	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	73	47.8	64.4	59.9
2	MEET KEVIN	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	57	32.7	41.8	27.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 08:01 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 3	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 83 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 1:18P
FOR STATE BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * IRON HAND: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LAWLER: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MATI GOL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	IRON HAND	5/2	5/2
9	LAWLER	6/1	9/2
1	MATI GOL	7/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	LAWLER	9	6/1	Stalker	74	69	77.8	61.2	55.7
2	ELIOT HOUSE	2	10/1	Stalker	0	0	55.9	56.9	48.4
5	IRON HAND	5	5/2	Trailer	83	76	71.1	72.6	70.1
1	MATI GOL	1	7/2	Trailer	78	67	37.0	63.5	58.5
3	SNEAKY SNEAKY	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	74.7	54.3	42.3
6	ROAR OF THE BEAST	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	65.4	43.6	31.1
7	RIDING A DREAM	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	59.1	43.7	32.7
8	HELICON	8	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	7.6	39.8	27.8

Unknown Running Style: HE'S A DAREDEVIL (8/1) [Jockey: Egan David - Trainer: Antonucci Jena M].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 08:01 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $29500 Class Rating: 58

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 WINNERS PREFERRED.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 CHASE THE MOON 5/2
# 6 WALEN LILLY 9/2
# 2 VELTRI 9/5

CHASE THE MOON is my choice. Could provide positive profits based on very strong recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 56. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the contest. Earned a formidable speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. VELTRI - With Amparan in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will almost certainly be able to break out sharply for this event.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 08:01 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #9 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#4 MASAKADO (ML=3/1)
#6 SECRET TREASURE (ML=5/1)
#3 WIRED IN (ML=12/1)

MASAKADO - Was in an Allowance race at Laurel in the last race. That event had a class rating of 92 and he is moving down in this race. A certain serious competitor. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front-runner facing sluggish sorts today. Ranked numero uno in earnings per race. Another sign that this animal has class. SECRET TREASURE - When a racer finishes in the money as often as this gelding does, you will usually want to use him in your exotic wagers. You have to consider the solid works of late. WIRED IN - This gelding is in nice condition, having run a nice race on Nov 1st, finishing fourth. This jock and conditioner's animals have been producing a profitable return on investment. Lets try to beat the probable favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty decent race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 DRILLING FOR GOLD (ML=5/2), #1 VILALUZ (ML=6/1), #9 PORTIS (ML=8/1),

DRILLING FOR GOLD - The race on Oct 31st was versus maiden claimers. Pass on this one today versus the tougher group. VILALUZ - Registered a substandard speed fig in the last race in a $20,000 Claiming race on November 1st. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number. Tough to wager on this questionable contender running out of the one slot. His pps show that he doesn't run well out of there. PORTIS - This mount ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will likely suffer defeat today running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 MASAKADO to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,4,6] with [3,4,6] with [3,4,5,6,9] with [3,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2024, 08:01 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $54,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#3 CYPRUS MOON (ML=2/1)
#6 BLISSTERINTHESUN (ML=5/2)
#7 MISS MANDALAY (GB) (ML=10/1)

CYPRUS MOON - Kimura was aboard this filly last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. We have lots of early speed with this racer. She could wire this field. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a vital selection factor. This entrant is ranked number 1 in this group. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a racer coming back off a solid outing within the last thirty days. BLISSTERINTHESUN - The October 6th race at Santa Anita was at a class level of (92). Dropping down in class considerably, so she should be in a good spot to take this race. Jockey hops back aboard after getting to know the horse by riding last time out. That's always a big time angle. Just view her latest figure, 87. That one looks good in this field. Horse has improved at least two speed rating points in last 2 races. I look for that trend to continue today. MISS MANDALAY (GB) - This mount is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf figure in last race at Del Mar was tops in this field. The jockey and handler combination have a favorable return on investment when they are put together. This filly's last speed rating notched on Sep 7th is tops in last race speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CURRENT AFFAIR (ML=9/2), #5 SWEET VOYAGE (ML=5/1), #4 SPARROW (ML=6/1),

CURRENT AFFAIR - Hasn't been coming close at all recently. SWEET VOYAGE - No success for this mount in a short distance event over the last couple of months tells me that this filly is in a thorny situation SPARROW - Difficult to wager on this mount in today's event. Make her show you something in a sprint affair before you play her in a race of 5 furlongs.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MISS MANDALAY (GB) - A must consideration in your gambling today. This mount's superior average class number makes her tough to beat.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 CYPRUS MOON to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None