Sunday 11/24/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**rocky57** · 11-21-2024, 11:44 AM

Art Diceare Risk Supivisor at the Westgate
Sharp Bets from there Sharp Players so far
Patriots/Dolphins Over
Eagles/Rams Over
Chargers/Ravens Over
Broncos
Patriots

Public Action so far
Lions
Packers

**rocky57** · 11-21-2024, 01:19 PM

Marco D'Angelo NFL Chiefs/Panthers Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:06 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - Nov. 24, 2024

November 24, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Del Mar

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 3-Artisma
Back-ups:: 2-No Bad Beats

Forecast: No Bad Beats tipped her hand in her debut when running a winning race before settling for second money while nine lengths clear of the rest, and a repeat of that performance today most likely will be good enough to earn her a diploma. But she’ll be heavily backed on the tote. Artisma is a viable alternative at what certainly should be a better price. The first timer by Munnings was very impressive in a fast preview breeze at the Timonium May Sale last spring and finally makes it to the post for trainer R. Baltas with a local tab that should have her fit and ready. Listed at 3-1 on the morning line, she should be every bit of that at post time, so with price being deciding factor let’s make this promising juvenile filly our top selection and a good gamble on the tote and in the various rolling exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 3-Stop Digging
Back-ups: none.

Forecast: An unlucky runner-up as the favorite in a similar dirt miler for first level allowance fillies and mares last month at Santa Anita, Stop Digging gets a chance for a do-over today and hopefully will enjoy a much better trip than last time. In that race, the S. Callaghan-trained sophomore filly raced in a box much of the way while being locked in and unable to extract herself, then finally got clear to close resolutely but simply ran out of ground to miss by less than a length. With clear sailing today, the daughter of Mrazek should be along in plenty of time as a logical win play and rolling exotic single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:06 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 24, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Northfield Park has a 16-race card and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (8:56 PM EST)

4-Stayingwiththewind (12-1)-Should offer a nice price as AMac takes the lines. Looking for an aggressive steer, and getting on the engine could be the game plan. It could be picture time if lands on the point easily, and works a soft quarter.
5-Majors Miracle (5/2)-Drops, has been facing Open company as Aaron Merriman gets the nod and could be bet down. Should be the winner with the right trip but not sure how easily this mare gets the top if she leaves.
7-Bonitas Best Bet (5-1)-Finished a good 2nd versus Open company off a wide trip in its Nfld debut. Gers a positive driver change in Ronnie Wrenn but has been off for 3-weeks. The 3-year-old should be able to stalk and rally late in the mile, if the Burke trainee is dialed on high facing older.

Race 12 (9:18 PM EST)

1-Natalie Hill (5/2)-The Linville barn has been hot and this 3-year-old filly is showing her best stuff late in the year. Has won 2-straight, and if the slow starter isn't compromised leaving from the rail good things could happen. Can roll by down the lane if Justin Irivine gets into striking range at the top of the last turn.
7-Go Go Lyla Jane (7-1)-Got on th engine in the last 2 starts, took a picture and then faded down the lane. Could get the top again or the 2-hole. The driver change to Billy Davis Jr shouldn't hurt and may get the jump on the tougher foes.
9-Kant Katch Kenzie (2-1)-Last week, Hunter Meyers stepped on the gas pedal around the 3/4's pole and drew off to win by over 7 lengths. It was a nice battle for 2nd place but the Milner trainee was dominant. The 2nd tier makes it more complicated but is still the one to beat.

Race 13 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Get Answers (5/2)-Left from the 8-hole and was last at the 1st call but rallied late to cash a 4th place check. Now comes back in sequence, Wrenn sticks, draws inside and those are all positives.
7-Ribbon Ridge (12-1)-Will take a swing for a price and fade the 2-1 choice #5, who is 1st time Lasix and making its Nfld debut. AMac is in the bike and will expect an aggressive drive. Raced better than the line looked in last and could be heard from at the wire with a sharp steer.

Race 14 (10:02 PM EST)

3-Tammie Sue (5/2)-This filly is consistently in the hunt and is tough to beat when has control of the mile. Chris Lems can land on the point with this post draw and should be tough to tackle.
7-Prince Charmer (3-1)-Has enough gate speed to land in a close-up seat and the Burke 3-year-old shouldn't feel out of place facing this crew. Should be racing at the top of the stack and could cash the top check if gets off the gate in good shape.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,5,7/1,7,9/2,7/3,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:06 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #2

#1 Legitimate Target	Not a whole lot to beat in here on paper, and a couple of the other threats go for barns that have burned a lot of money in races like this here the last couple years (Sharp/Hartman). Think a couple of those California races might do the trick here from a good spot right near the top.
#2 Numero Siete	Tough read here as he comes back for a tag off the break for a team that hasn't landed many like this, but he's getting some clear class relief after chasing a talented Snead in that race last year. Wouldn't be a surprise, but I'm not sure the risk/reward will be there on the board.
#8 Sharp Strike	He was OK going long for a tag at Hawthorne last out, and he might find a pretty decent spot from the outside today while tracking the splits. In the mix.
Race Summary	Legitimate Target has a couple races on his page that fit well here, and he might have the right style to land this one.

Fair Grounds - Race #5

#1 Dan D'Oro	Barn landed one of these types of races here in the last few years, and a fresh face may be the right idea in a spot where those with experience still have some improving to do. Check him out on the tote and track.
#3 Hot Property	The Cox and Amoss barns have done the best work in these types of races here the last few years, and this one might be ready to roll with the barn's early-season go-to rider in the irons. Guessing he's ready.
#5 Fever Night	He finished with a little bit of enthusiasm last out and gets Lasix today, and there's a chance that his grinding style may play well over the local footing. Still, think he's vulnerable to someone else getting the jump.
Race Summary	Dan D'Oro isn't meeting the toughest crew on paper (pending on what the Cox debuters are made of), so he might be the right place to start looking around at a midrange price today in what might not be the best special weight we're going to see all season. Most of these are probably still trying to punch any kind of ticket into the stakes series that starts here next month.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#3 Watering	Finisher might get a good setup on the rise to try winners, as there are a handful of speedy types lined up, and she's one of the few to have already shown she can get past horses. Along late.
#2 Cigars N Cars	Wouldn't mind having her on stretch plays with a debut run on her page in which she rallied well against a soft Evangeline group. Still think the top choice is the clear pick of the late threats, but if it really melts down....
#1 Thehillonwoodside	She might be just a touch light for some of these, but I could see her getting shuffled back into the pocket behind a few quicker players early, and maybe she's heading in the right direction with room to capitalize on that kind of trip today.
Race Summary	Watering should get the run of the race if this group stays intact, as she finished with some punch last time out and is meeting several forward players who can set things up for her to rally late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:07 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 3	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)/ $1 Swinger
Claiming $25,000 • 7 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $50,700 • Post: 2:19P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $23,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. IF YOU INSIST is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IF YOU INSIST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TUNECHI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SPEEDEEMAN: Hor se ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POSTURING: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TUTTI CONTENTI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4	IF YOU INSIST	10/1	5/1
2	TUNECHI	3/1	6/1
1	SPEEDEEMAN	6/1	7/1
7	POSTURING	2/1	9/1
5	TUTTI CONTENTI	7/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	IF YOU INSIST	4	10/1	Front-runner	74	79	87.2	65.4	55.4
2	TUNECHI	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	77	56.8	69.8	63.8
5	TUTTI CONTENTI	5	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	70	54.1	71.1	62.1
1	SPEEDEEMAN	1	6/1	Trailer	79	83	69.4	74.6	69.6
7	POSTURING	7	2/1	Trailer	85	73	48.8	75.4	67.9
3	PROUD RONIN	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	69	79.8	71.2	64.2
6	MONDAY MORNING	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	74	43.2	67.8	57.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:07 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum) $1 Early Double / $1 Pick Four $1 Place Pick All Races 1 - 10
Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 91 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD'S, (NO SEX ALLOWANCE) (WEIGHT 126) HORSES WHICH NOMINATED TO THIS RACE MUST PASS THE ENTRY BOX IN THE USUAL MANNER. ENTRY FEE $1,200. NO SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENT. ALL TRIAL ENTRY FEES MUST BE ON DEPOSIT WITH THE PAYMASTER OF PURSES PRIOR TO THE CLOSING OF ENTRIES. HORSES WHICH QUALIFY FOR THE FINALS MUST REMAIN ON THE GROUNDS UNTIL 48 HOURS AFTER THE FINALS HAVE RUN.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CARTEL PERRY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. BLOOD VIPER: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DEVILS TOWER: Horse ranks in the top three in Tr ackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	CARTEL PERRY	6/5	9/2
1	BLOOD VIPER	9/2	6/1
7	DEVILS TOWER	5/2	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BLOOD VIPER	1	9/2	Fast	86	82	2.9	0.0	0.0
2	ONECORONA TWOCORONA	2	30/1	Average	72	62	5.1	0.0	0.0
3	DRAGULA	3	15/1	Average	80	76	5.3	0.0	0.0
4	DEFENDING CHAMP	4	5/1	Average	86	75	6.0	0.0	0.0
5	CARTEL PERRY	5	6/5	Fast	89	85	3.5	0.0	0.0
6	DASH FOR POWER	6	20/1	Average	77	72	4.7	0.0	0.0
7	DEVILS TOWER	7	5/2	Average	86	84	3.7	0.0	0.0
8	GIMY A REASON	8	12/1	Average	76	66	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:07 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $54,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#3 RUNNING SPARTAN (ML=9/2)
#7 MONEY MAKES MONEY (ML=5/2)
#2 LAUGIER NIGHT (IRE) (ML=6/1)

RUNNING SPARTAN - Kimura is right back for another race today after riding aboard this equine for the first ride on October 27th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a solid effort is a good sign. Have to give this horse a long hard look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. This gelding recorded a nice speed fig of 96 in his last affair. That fig should be strong enough to prove victorious in today's event. MONEY MAKES MONEY - This gelding is in good form, having run a strong race on October 27th, finishing second. Rispoli and Glatt have had great success together over this last year. This gelding has the top turf figure in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here racer has a good chance. Another way to assign class is (EPS) earnings per start. This animal has the topmost in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line. LAUGIER NIGHT (IRE) - Owns the highest Equibase speed figure on the turf at this distance. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fifth). Should improve in today's race, with some decent odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JUST BEFORE DAWN (ML=2/1), #1 FINAL EDITION (IRE) (ML=4/1),

JUST BEFORE DAWN - This less than sharp equine didn't go to the lead and didn't close in the lane last time he ran. Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance contests in order to wager on him. Not likely that the speed figure he registered on Oct 13th will hold up in this event. FINAL EDITION (IRE) - Didn't look so hot last out. Probably won't make a winning move today. Finished seventh in his most recent effort with a quite unimpressive fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MONEY MAKES MONEY - This gelding improved his speed rating two races back on Jan 6th and improved again in the last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 RUNNING SPARTAN is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,7] with [2,3,7] with [2,3,5,6,7] with [2,3,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:08 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8300 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 24, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 24 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 OFFUTT COLE 8/1
# 4 BROTHER SKYE 8/1
# 3 PROFESSIONAL 15/1

OFFUTT COLE looks to be a quite good contender particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Tapara ought to be able to get this gelding to break out early in this race. BROTHER SKYE - Looks very good against this group and will probably be one of the front-runners. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this group of horses in this race. PROFESSIONAL - Has to be given consideration based on the very good Equibase Speed Fig garnered in the last affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:08 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Pleasanton - Race #5 - Post: 2:13pm - Starter Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#6 COWBOY KISSES (ML=9/2)
#5 HANDSOME GARY (ML=1/1)
#2 SATANTA (ML=5/1)

COWBOY KISSES - This thoroughbred coming off a good race in the last month is a win candidate in my humble opinion. This gelding has been working well, and the recent bullet work says he's primed for a big performance today. As the only front running sort in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. Should do well right here. Weight shift of -9 from November 1st race at Pleasanton. HANDSOME GARY - Have to give this gelding a good chance. Ran a sharp race in the last race within the last month or so. Rodriguez enters this animal in a spot where he should fit well based on his last two speed figures. SATANTA - Ramos has this gelding spotted in the perfect event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WARRENS WORLD (ML=6/1), #7 HORSE DOCTOR (ML=8/1),

WARRENS WORLD - Even though victorious in last, didn't finish the way you'd like to see when stepping up to face stronger opponents. Finished first in his most recent performance with a mediocre speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. HORSE DOCTOR - Awfully hard to wager on this horse when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit recently. Most unsatisfactory speed rating last out at Crooked River Roundup at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this racer will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - COWBOY KISSES - My calculations and statistics say it usually takes a thoroughbred 1 - 2 races after a layoff to get back into proper racing condition. That's just what we have here, so I expect a solid race for this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 COWBOY KISSES to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2024, 08:08 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $68000 Class Rating: 97

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 HUNTER JOHN 15/1
# 3 ECHO AGAIN 2/1
# 4 TRIPLE ELVIS 3/1

HUNTER JOHN is my pick especially at 15/1. Looks quite good to be close to the front end at the first call. Formidable average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this racer a contender. ECHO AGAIN - Has very good Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager for this event. Asmussen has one of the strongest winning percentages in this group of horses in this race with entries running at this distance and surface. TRIPLE ELVIS - Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. Saez has a win percentage of 25 over the last month.