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Nadeau & Nicoletti: Gulfstream Thursday Championship Meet Pic

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November 27, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Brian Nadeau analysis:

Race 1: A happy Thanksgiving and a happy kickoff to the Championship Meet, as we embark on another huge winter of worldclass racing full of key Grade 1 events at Gulfstream Park. The call in the opener goes to 10 BRITISH EMPRESS, who seems better than these, has the speed to negotiate a tough draw, and will like getting back to the turf too. You have to respect the NY turf form of both 3 DUBAWI WOWIE and 1 AMERICAN KESTREL, with the former getting a big trainer switch off the Abreu claim (2-for-9), while the latter has speed and takes a solid class drop as well.

SELECTIONS: 10-3-1-6

Race 2: The rail isn’t ideal, but 1 COME DREAM WITH ME seems tons better than these, and with Irad named, it’s breakthrough time. The main (only?) danger may be 7 SCALLYWAG, who figures tighter second-off the break after running 3rd in a vey slow race. The added ground should suit 2 FIGHT TIL DAWN, a tough-totrust 3rd at 54-1 last time in his dirt debut.

SELECTIONS: 1-7-2-4

Race 3: Its’ Best Bet time with 4 OURS FOR SURE, as he just faced much better, meets a meek field, and gets a weight break as well. If nothing else, 3 TIZ RUDDY BEN comes in off a win, which is never a bad thing in these low-level claimers. Not sure what to make of 6 SPLIT STRIKE, as he’s been off since May, plummets in class, and has never tried Tapeta either.

SELECTIONS: 4-3-6-1

Race 4: Let’s see if 2 NEBLINA can make up the 2 � length he was behind 1 XENON last time, and there’s reason to think he can, as Gonzalez is back training, the blinkers go on, and he did well to draw outside his main rival too. No doubt they all have to beat 1 XENON, but the rail is a problem, and with Irad up, the price will be mighty short as well. Maybe the MSW drop wakes up 3 IN OTHER WORDS, as the debut two-back was solid, and he drew better today after a no-show from a wide draw last time.

SELECTIONS: 2-1-3-4

Race 5: It’s Longshot time with
1 WAITTILMIDNITEHOUR, who rises while seeking three straight, will get plenty of pace to rally into, and gets ace turf rider Ruiz too. Lynch has already saddled two stakes winners here in the last few weeks and started last year’s Championship Meet off white-hot, so 11 MIYAKO figures tough after finally breaking through—in very fast time too—in Indiana. A troubled trip ruined 9 ORDEROFTHEPHOENIX’S chances last time, but that closing 3rd two-back says she’s a player with a fair go of it here.

SELECTIONS: 1-11-9-2

Race 6: You don’t see Paco named by Dwoskin often, so there may be some intent on 6 STARSHIP POINTS, who cost 60k, hasn’t missed an AM beat in six weeks, and meets (seemingly) a field there to be taken. Irad is on 7 MARTY’S GAL, and that 10/27 Belmont work was huge, so she’s live, even though Terranova is just 6% on debut. Fading 1 WITH KINDNESS, who has failed at tiny odds against weaker, and again drew inside, where she’s been breaking slow.

SELECTIONS: 6-7-1-4

Race 7: Stabbing with 1 POINT LIAM, as the lone Tapeta race here was a big 3rd against better, and he’s worked well for his first start since August. Both 5 CADAMOSTO and 6 THREE ZERO make a bit more sense, but the former will be an underlay with Irad and has never tried the local Tapeta (though he’s 2-for-3 elsewhere), and the latter never wins at 2-for-32, so you’re allowed to look around for more value.

SELECTIONS: 1-5-6-3

Race 8: The Wait a While is all about 2 CIVETTA, who looks like she lays over these on class off that neck 2nd in the G3 Matron at BAQ, is bred to love two turns, and drew perfectly inside as well. You should get some value underneath with 3 SAIL THESEVEN SEAS, as the turf route MSW win at Lrl last time was sharp, though she meets eons better here. That was some debut from 5 BRUTALLY HONEST, who closed like a wild horse to win for fun, and has an edge as a local turf winner too.

SELECTIONS: 2-4-5-7


Best Bet: R3: #4 Ours for Sure (5-2)
* Drops after facing much better
* Well-drawn with tactical speed
* Gets 7-9 pounds on all but one

Longshot: R5: #1 Waittilmidnitehour (12-1)
* Drew well looking for three straight
* Stalker in a race with plenty of speed
* Turf ace Ruiz gets aboard for Trombo


Ron Nicoletti Analysis

Race 1:
1 American Kestrel
6 Boot’s On the Moon
3 Dubawi Wowie

Race 2:
1 Come Dream With Me
7 Scallywag
2 Fight Til Dawn

Race 3:
6 Spilt Strike
4 Ours for Sure
2 Vinicio

Race 4:
1 Xenon
4 La Dinamita
2 Neblina

Race 5:
8 Breezero (LS)
11 Miyako
1 Waittilmidnitehour

Race 6:
1 With Kindness
2 Just a Philly
5 Time Leap

Race 7
6 Three Zero
5 Cadamosto (IRE)
3 Loyal Louie

Race 8: The Wait a While
2 Civetta (BB)
7 Bellavinino
12 Smart Union


Best Bet: R8 2 Civetta:
Stretches out around 2 turns after the game 2nd in the 6-furlong G3 Matron. She’s bred to love the distance and
beyond

Longshot: R5 8 Breezero:
Moves to turf for Safie Joseph Jr. after reeling off consecutive wins on Tapeta. Saffie & Jaramillo are 5 for 8 (63%) together

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #6

#4 Golden Afternoon	He was sharp at first asking and now comes here after landing a Grade II placing in his follow-up start, and he might be in line for a perfect first-jump trip behind a couple intriguing pace players. He'll get bet, but I think he's supposed to be a handful here.
#2 Executor	He looked good graduating on the front end at Keeneland, there's a chance he'll prove to be the most committed pace in here. Enough to like as a reasonable alternative, especially if the price gets too short on the top choice.
#3 Clapping	He goes second out after finishing from the back going long at Presque Isle, and he probably has some upside off just the one start. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him move forward for a team that can bring a turf horse along.
Race Summary	Golden Afternoon has the obvious class here and brings some attractive positional pace with him. Consider #9 States' Rights if you're against the chalk, and I'd think about using #12 Boss of All Bosses on some stretch plays.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#6 Texas Cyclone	Take a good look at all the new faces on the tote and track, as these kinds of spots can sometimes produce super live horses who will run to it. On paper, this guy is the most attractive firster, and there's nothing wrong with having Ortiz up with the bullet work in tow.
#4 Chases Magic	Think there are a handful of good signs here in advance of the debut run, and he's yet another in a group of six very interesting firsters stacked from the rail out. Consider.
#7 Map of Donegal	He landed a deep underneath share when no threat in stakes company at Delta last out, but he looked decent enough against friends in the debut try to think he's capable of something better. Would be funny to see him land this with some obvious form on his page while overshadowed by the big-name barns.
Race Summary	Texas Cyclone and Chases Magic piqued my interest the most ahead of this, and I almost talked myself into moving Map of Donegal on top while writing up that blurb about him -- not the worst idea if the betting gets really silly on a bunch of the others.

Fair Grounds - Race #9

#7 Red Flag	He's technically a little cheap compared to a lot of these as he rises from allowance company off the claim, but the guy he beat last out was right back to win the Grade III Native Diver at Del Mar last weekend. Love the way he's finishing his races right now -- think that might play well here.
#11 Champlin	There are a few other potential pace/forward players lined up today, but he draws well to flash what looks like some of the only truly serious front-end sprint pace in here while facing horses who might find being up top at six furlongs a little heated.
#1 Giant Mischief	He's quick enough to get involved from the fence, but he can also ease back just a touch and let things unfold if Champlin really goes for it. Player.
Race Summary	#5 Montalcino is a wild card here while rising in search of a third consecutive score to open his career, but this is definitely a class test for him. #10 Bo Cruz can play here, too, but I kept coming back to Red Flag who might be stepping up with purpose just like the horse he easily handled last out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #2

#12 SOUTH PACIFIC (12-1)	Steady check-getter, running out of chances to upgrade to a win.
#2 TITIAN TYRANT (3-1)	Held second behind 2-to-5 winner, cuts back to sprint at same level.
#9 WELLAREYOUHAPPYNOW (12-1)	Takes magnified class drop, worked recent bullet at Fair Hill.
Race Summary	SOUTH PACIFIC’s five race in-the-money run ended at 5-1/2F last out, but she made moves in her prior four starts and can end a long winless drought if she avoids a wide trip from post 12. The price is right for a win and place wager. Also play a 2-9-12 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#1 VILALUZ (8-1)	In top form for high-percentage connections, distance suits, price attached.
#5 CAJUN VIBES (5-1)	Romped on switch to barn in midst of 3-for-12 ‘repeat’ record.
#6 ALILNALOT (9-5)	Has speed and can use it well in first start off the claim by Ness.
Race Summary	VILALUZ sat a perfect trip off the dueling leaders but settled for second best going a route of ground. He remains in top form, offers good betting value and shortens up to a suitable distance. Bet to win and place and play a 1/5,6/ALL trifecta.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#2 RIDE TO REMEMBER (3-1)	Took money but succumbed to duel in debut for 22-percent 2yo barn.
#9 CURB (4-1)	Showed speed against better, stumbled start proved costly on the class drop.
#1 THE FEISTY ONE (5-1)	Showed pulse in $92k MSW debut in May, returns in new barn, wears blinks.
Race Summary	RIDE TO REMEMBER broke inward in a heavily-bet debut and dueled outside of the runner-up before the co-favorite passed by both of them. She takes a slight class drop and can use her speed wisely in this field at the same distance. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-9 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 6	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)/$1 Swinger
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $61,600 • Post: 7:15P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR ONTARIO SIRED ALLOWANCE WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * IRON PYRITE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CYMBAL COURT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. BEDAZZLE ME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. PRIMA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MRS. C: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	IRON PYRITE	8/1	6/1
9	CYMBAL COURT	8/1	6/1
8	BEDAZZLE ME	20/1	8/1
5	PRIMA	5/2	8/1
4	MRS. C	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	IRON PYRITE	6	8/1	Front-runner	77	79	76.6	74.0	60.5
7	OLYMPIC FENCER	7	20/1	Front-runner	85	83	75.4	54.8	41.3
9	CYMBAL COURT	9	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	81	75	71.0	75.2	66.7
2	TWO SIP SALLY	2	3/1	Stalker	81	85	67.2	69.0	60.0
5	PRIMA	5	5/2	Stalker	80	80	61.0	75.4	67.4
8	BEDAZZLE ME	8	20/1	Trailer	85	82	53.8	78.0	72.0
3	GO GIFFEN	3	15/1	Trailer	81	81	23.8	63.4	52.9
4	MRS. C	4	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	80	79	49.0	72.6	65.1
1	BLAMELESS GHOST	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	77	58.1	63.9	51.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 5 (Races 1-5) / Super Hi-5
Claiming $50,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $66,000 • Post: 11:30
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * REDEMPTION TIME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HOLLYWOOD ENDING: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BRILLIANT MAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ra nks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BLACK IRON: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	REDEMPTION TIME	7/2	5/1
7	HOLLYWOOD ENDING	5/2	6/1
2	BRILLIANT MAN	9/2	6/1
6	BLACK IRON	3/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BLACK IRON	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	83	83.4	70.2	65.7
7	HOLLYWOOD ENDING	7	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	92	94	74.7	79.9	71.9
1	REDEMPTION TIME	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	96	94	74.6	85.2	79.7
2	BRILLIANT MAN	2	9/2	Trailer	93	83	72.4	84.6	76.1
4	LAUGHNOWCRYLATER	4	12/1	Trailer	85	80	57.2	74.3	63.3
3	SEASON FIGHTER	3	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	93	87	65.3	71.8	63.3
5	GORILLA TREK	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	85	75.8	74.4	65.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $59000 Class Rating: 92

FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $100,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $100,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 GOLDEN AFTERNOON 3/1
# 6 CURAHEE 10/1
# 11 BLAMEITONBOURBON 8/1

GOLDEN AFTERNOON is my choice. Has earned sound Equibase Speed Figures in turf route races in the past. Might best this group of animals here, showing strong figs of late. Will most likely go to the front end and might never look back. CURAHEE - This selection will feel the med change - on Lasix today. Recently Russell has provided players with a solid winning percentage with horses racing in turf route races. BLAMEITONBOURBON - Could beat this group given the 89 speed figure recorded in his last outing. With a reliable 89 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Laurel - Race #6 - Post: 1:55pm - SO - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating:

#3 UNCAPTURED STORM (ML=20/1)
#9 HOLY SYNCHRONICITY (ML=5/1)
#11 COFFEEWITHCHRIS (ML=8/1)
#1 UNION FLEET (ML=8/1)
#4 WHISKEY AND YOU (ML=6/1)


UNCAPTURED STORM - Hasn't run at today's trip recently but does have a speed rating registered last time he tried this trip good enough to win. This horse's record for this distance is great. HOLY SYNCHRONICITY - Look at this pattern of improvement. 63/87/95 are the last three speed figures. COFFEEWITHCHRIS - This gelding should give a good account of himself in today's event. UNION FLEET - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +219. WHISKEY AND YOU - Several positive 'sensations' attached to this thoroughbred and his barn.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MONDAY MORNING QB (ML=9/5), #10 SPEARGUN (ML=6/1),

MONDAY MORNING QB - This pony hasn't been on the track since Oct 11th. Not even any workouts. SPEARGUN - Can't bet on this racer in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint race of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 UNCAPTURED STORM to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,9] with [3,9,11] with [1,3,4,9,11] with [1,3,4,9,11] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[3,9,11] with [1,3,4,9,11] with [1,3,4,9,11] with [1,3,4,9,11] with [1,3,4,9,11] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Gulfstream Park - Race #2 - Post: 11:45am - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#2 FIGHT TIL DAWN (ML=6/1)
#7 SCALLYWAG (ML=5/2)


FIGHT TIL DAWN - That 75 fig this gelding registered in his last race tells me he's a major player today. Horse has improved at least two speed rating points in last 2 races. I look for that to continue in this event. SCALLYWAG - Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a solid outing on November 8th. I like this gelding a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. Ranked number 1 in earnings per start (EPS). Another indication that this animal outclasses this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 COME DREAM WITH ME (ML=8/5), #4 PALPITO (ML=9/2),

COME DREAM WITH ME - Would have to get better off that fifth place finish last out to make an impact here. PALPITO - 9/2 is too low of a reward to take on most any mount that has run poorly in back to back outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 FIGHT TIL DAWN to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; , 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 13 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 28 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 GIRL FLAME 2/1
# 2 GUAYNABO MINISTER 9/5
# 3 NEGOCIADORA L R 10/1

GIRL FLAME supports the wager in here. Should be used in the exotic bets. Earnings per start in dirt route races is solid for this horse. Looks solid against this field and will most likely be one of the early speedsters. GUAYNABO MINISTER - This filly with Diaz in the irons makes her a solid choice. Solid selection to take this race going in a dirt route. NEGOCIADORA L R - Looks formidable for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in dirt route races as of late. This mare looks like a play at a price.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
4	4	JIMBELINA	2/1	Fillion, Samuel - 15	436.17
6	6	DANGEROUS CURVES	7/2	Ryan, Jason D - 13	406.37
2	2	SHEMARS LADY HAVOC	9/2	Sorrie, Austin - 17	388.52
5	5	NANNIE BERNICE	8/1	Plante, Jean Rene - 19	381.01
1	1	STILTON GOLD	3/1	Ratchford, Todd - 7	375.53
3	3	WASAGA	6/1	Harris, J Bradley - 12	360.30
7	7	BROKEN	4/1	Macdonell, Mark A - 6	323.27
8	8	CHEDDARS DELIGHT	10/1	Thiessen, Daryl - 13	316.20

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 5:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 67 - Purse:$5200 - N/W $200.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 WINDSUN DIEGO 2/1
# 2 LYONS SHINING 5/2
# 3 BEACH ROLLER 6/1

WINDSUN DIEGO seems to be our best wagering option in this race. Worth careful consideration here based on the stats in the TrackMaster speed fig department alone. If effort in the last outing is any indicator, this contender will have a very nice shot in this contest. High last race TrackMaster speed fig. Gagnon has been blazing hot the past month, winning at a great 32 percent. LYONS SHINING - Could very well be the most favorable in the group of horses here, showing very nice ratings of late. Average speed is a solid 71. Good for a win play just off the terrific prior class statistics. Have to like this fine animal. BEACH ROLLER - It's a bit chancy to consider based only on class, but this gelding has among the top class figures of the pack.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 11 - Post: 10:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 68 - Purse:$6500 - FILLIES AND MARES: NW $525 LAST 3 OR $675 LAST 4 STARTS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 JIMBELINA 2/1
# 5 NANNIE BERNICE 8/1
# 7 BROKEN 4/1

JIMBELINA looks formidable to best this group. Can't forget based on speed figures which have been exemplary (70 avg) in recent times. A nice class horse should not be be glossed over. With an avg class rating of 74 all signs point to yes. Take a long look at making this horse your win bet based on well above average win pct alone. NANNIE BERNICE - More wins than the expected average have been achieved by entrants lining up behind the 5 post at Flamboro Downs. Has been running well lately and her style of running should result in a substantial performance. BROKEN - Has really good TrackMaster Speed Ratings and very likely has to be thought of for a wager in this event.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Woodbine Mohawk Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
6	6	MY LAST KISS	7/2	Macdonald, James A - 22	502.49
1	1	VENDETTA BLUE CHIP	3/1	Jones, Tyler S - 7	462.86
7	7	IDEAL ENTRY	5/1	Henry, Trevor S - 11	450.16
5	5	RJ JEAN	10/1	Young, Scott R - 5	439.35
8	8	SAULSBROOK ANNIE	4/1	Roy, Louis-Philippe - 18	432.47
2	2	IS HE WATCHING	10/1	Drury, Jonathan L - 7	428.75
3	3	D A CINNAMONCRUNCH	10/1	Borth, Tyler J - 10	421.91
9	9	TAMARA HANOVER	8/1	Jamieson, Jody C - 11	413.01
4	4	SAUBLE ELLIE	6/1	Mcclure, Bob - 13	383.96

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 28


Nov. 27, 2024

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (1) Redemption Time can bounce back with a big try on a dry track. (7) Hollywood Ending should be closing quickly at the end. (6) Black Iron could perk up in a claimer. (5) Gorilla Trek fits in with these. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-7.

3^rd race – (6) Tahoe Sunrise gets back on dirt and should respond with a big try. (7) Camp David is working nicely for his first start since March. (1) Summer Splash chases a third straight win and cannot be ignored. (5) Background can come to the forefront here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-7.

5th race – (9) Tres Chic was second at this level and should like the one-turn mile. (5) Pate takes a big drop and could be a contender. (2) Anointed of God comes off a maiden win and merits some attention. (4) Sterling Luck should be a threat in this field. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-9. Doubles: 2-4-5-9 with 3-4-7-9.

6th race – (4) Proctor Street ran well enough in a New York stakes and can handle this group. (3) Federalism exits a hard-fought win at Keeneland and should be the main rival. (9) Make the Boys Wink figures to be closing swiftly at the end. (7) American Retro has been absent since February but shows some nice recent works. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-7-9.

9th race - (2) Tarifa has been facing the top 3-year-old fillies and seems on edge for this test. (4) Musical Mischief won a Grade 2 stakes last time and shapes up as the one to fear. (6) Loved didn’t fire in a Grade 1 stakes but fits better here. (1) Neon Icon exits a smart win and landed a ground-saving post. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-6.