Saturday 11/30/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-30-2024, 07:33 AM

Jeff Siegel's What HYou Need to Know - Del Mar - Nov. 30, 2024

November 30, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Del Mar

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RACE 1: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: Lila
Back-ups:: none.

Forecast The known element in this maiden turf miler for juvenile fillies doesn’t impress, so let’s latch onto a fast-working filly with credentials to win at first asking. Lila vans in from San Luis Rey Downs with an impressive series of morning drills that should have her fit and ready. The R. Baltas-trained daughter of Audible attracts top rider F. Prat, who doesn’t often ride for these connections, so there’s enough circumstantial evidence to suggest she is extremely live and well meant. Bred for turf on the bottom side of her pedigree (both her dam and grand dam were stakes quality distance performers), the daughter of Audible might be a decent sort but really won’t have to be a world beater to act with this group. At 7/2 on the morning line, she’s a gamble in the win pool and in the various exotics.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 6-Circo di Marzio
Back-ups: 11-On the Whim

Forecast: Circo di Marzio arrives from Kentucky, where he’s been hunkered down since being imported to the States a few months back while preparing for his U. S. debut. With valuable ship and money available to the son of Justify, he’s here to win right now for trainer W. Ward- and brings with him overseas form in competitive handicaps that makes him a major player at this level on this circuit. The lightly-raced newcomer is a first time gelding removing blinkers while attracting M. Smith, so apparently no stone has been left unturned. He’s a gambling number on the morning line at 9/2 and is worth strong consideration on the tote and in rolling exotic play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-30-2024, 07:34 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 30, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Hawthorne Racecourse has a 9-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:50 PM CST)

6-Bull Market (6-1)-Comes off an even effort in the Cardinal and that was its Hawthorne debut. Hoosier shipper gets a positive driver change in Marcus Miller. Should offer a square price and could step-up in the 2nd start on the oval.
7-Fox Valley Ramiro (9/5)-Showed some good speed downstate in the summer but has been on the shelf since 9-11. Put in a decent tune-up at Haw on 9-23, not loving the short price but should be a player if dialed on high. When the Simmons-Leonard combo team up they post 26% winners.
8-Fox Valley Cole (9-1)-Looking for a price in a race with some question marks. The Patton trainee can grind its way around and there should be an honest pace. The 3-year-old should be rolling late and if in striking range could surprise.

Race 7 (9:10 PM CST)

1-Lou's Miracle (5/2)-The Searle pupil needs to race close to the top to take a picture. Should get that type of trip here and can be a player with a sharp steer.
4-Scorecard Lil Red (7/5)-Won coming off a sick scratch on 11-22, and now uses hopples for the 1st time. Should fit well with this crew and could double up but won't offer any value.

Race 8 (9:30 PM CST)

1-Fox Valley Boxer (3-1)-Starts for the Leonard barn and found the going tough in the Cardinal. Faces some 3-year-olds but still fits well and should benefit from an efficient steer from Travis Seekman.
4-Fox Valley Bruin (5/2)-Has hit the board in 10 of 15 with 2 pictures but recent form has been dull. This looks like a good spot to post an overdue win but could be over bet.

Race 9 (9:50 PM CST)

1-Rocknroll Dakota (8-1)-Rolled the back-half in 56.3 but the pace was slow. Should be closer to the leaders with this post draw and can be in the hunt at a solid price.
2-Ashlee's Lil Angel (6/5)-Returns from HoP and lands at a more competitive level. Casey Leonard should have this mare in play when the wings fold. Figures to be in the mix but can't fully trust, is 0-13 in Stickney.
8-That's Cache (7-1)-Was driven aggressively in last and the trip took its toll later in the mile. Gets a new set of hands in Marcus Miller and that could help. Beat better than this 2 back and came off cover to do so. Could look to follow the same plan tonight.

0.50 Late Pick 4

6,7,8/1,4/1,4/1,2,8
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-30-2024, 07:34 AM

Scott Shapiro: Saturday Spot Plays at Churchill Downs | 11/30

November 29, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs is one of my favorites to handicap all year. A perfect combination of replay watching, assessing trainer intent, and mixing in some pedigree makes it a true pleasure. Hopefully that leads to some better results than we have had most of this fall meeting.

I wrote up the runners I like in the Derby and Oaks prep races in my Turkey Bowl article, but here are a few others I will be gambling on before the headliners.

Race 1:

The opener is a 7-furlong affair over the main track where #2 Chasten is listed as the 8-5-morning line choice. The Juddmonte homebred is a half-sister to champion mare Idiomatic, who of course is also conditioned by Brad Cox. Idiomatic won her first start, but it was at one-mile over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner was definitely good early, but needed more ground than seven-eights. I am hopeful that will be the case with this Into Mischief filly.

#5 Banking Silver ran huge in her first start in early September. The Liam’s Map filly hopped at the start and was caught wide throughout on a day where the inside was the place to be. The Dallas Stewart trainee was run down by the public choice that day, but lost nothing in defeat finishing second beaten less than a length. Her follow up start was not as good, but probably worked as a strong learning experience. Instead of being in the clear and in the rear, she broke better and was caught in amongst horses for the first time. Now, Luis Saez jumps back aboard and the price should be right.

Play: #5 Banking Silver (8-1 ML)

Race 5:

In a shocking development, Brad Cox also has the morning line favorite in this 7-furlong event in #7 Patch Adams. The son of Into Mischief was extremely well-meant in his first start back at Keeneland on October 11 when he was sent off at 4-5, but failed to do better than third. Cox horses usually improve with a start under their belt, but it is hard to get overly excited about this colt at 8-5 when he really lacked an excuse as the chalk six weeks ago.

I prefer a second-time starter that should offer far better value in #2 Native Runner. The $105k Keeneland September 2023 purchase got the perfect Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr. learning experience on debut at Keeneland in late October. In that first start, the Laoban colt was out of the gate slow and outrun early, but moved inside and put in a very strong late run to just miss second. The Calumet Farm runner gets an extra half-furlong and is likely to be better out of the gates in his second lifetime try.

Play: #2 Native Runner (6-1 ML)
Race 8:

This two-turn turf race appears as wide-open as any on the 12-race card, so I am going to take a big swing with #5 Bourbonator. The son of Tiz the Law has never hit the board and has been beaten by 66 lengths over his first three starts, but took a significant step forward last out for trainer Keith Desormeaux. He was still beaten double-digit lengths, but was down on the inside in a four-horse battle early and stlll beat half the field home. The move to the turf and to two-turns is what gives the most hope. Desormeaux has been a master over his career of getting the most out of budget type purchases. A lot that of that has to do with patience and the desire to teach them ultimately to get a route of ground. The pedigree does not scream out turf, by any means, but there is some influences on the bottom side. The one I know for sure is he will be the right price to gamble in a race where I simply have no interest in the favorites.

Play: #5 Bourbonator (15-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-30-2024, 07:35 AM

Scott Shapiro: $10K Turkey Bowl Weekend Stakes Picks

November 27, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

At 1/ST BET and Xpressbet we are extremely thankful for all of the great customers we have, as well as the equine and human athletes who compete every day for our enjoyment. As part of our way of saying thank you, we are rolling back out our $10,000 Turkey Bowl Contest starting Thursday. Hit a $10 win bet on at least 10 of the stakes races listed on the promotions page and win your share of the five-figure prize pool. Just remember to register to become eligible.

Here are a few horses I will be including as part of my $10 Win wagers on Friday and Saturday:

Friday November 29:

Race 9, Gulfstream Park, Pulpit Stakes

A fun race to close the card at Gulfstream Park where the morning line choices appear a bit vulnerable. #2 Mi Bago returns to the races after shipping out west for a stakes event on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. He had some traffic issues early that day, but looks like more of a sprinter. #4 Hit That Review also has to prove himself at two-turns after breaking through in the fourth consecutive sprint to start his career. He ran well at Keeneland last out, but burnt a good deal of money in the two starts prior.

I like #1 Tank most despite failing to finish the deal last out in the $95,000 Armed Forces over this same course. He was coming back on very short rest after posting a career best performance in his dominant wire-to-wire victory over the all-weather in late October. Now, high-percentage trainer Carlos David has given him nearly a full month of rest and he draws favorably along the rail. Look for jockey Drayden Van Dyke to dictate early terms and have enough left late to seal the deal.

Play: #1 Tank

Saturday November 30:

Race 9, Churchill Downs. Golden Rod (G2)

The Road to the Kentucky Oaks continues on with this 8.5-furlong test for 2YO fillies where I have no desire in trying to beat #3 Good Cheer. The Godolphin homebred has passed all tests thus far with flying colors, including last out in the $200,000 Rags to Riches when she was bumped around at the start, but recovered nicely under Luis Saez and won going away as the odds-on choice. The extremely well-bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should get an honest pace to run at given the presence of stablemate #1 Eclatant, as well #4 Quietside and #6 My Lil Punky, However, if they do not go that fast early, she should have no problem being up a bit closer to the early pace and still finding her way to the wire first. Either way, I will take a likely winner where I can get one since I need to come up with ten by Sunday!

Play: #3 Good Cheer

Race 11, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Jockey Club (G2)

There is no doubt #2 Jonathan’s Way is the clear one to beat in this Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. The Ohio-bred was dominant on debut and backed it up with an impressive victory in the Iroquois (G3), but disappointed earlier this month in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He returns on relatively normal rest, but is anyone else concerned that this is a bit of an afterthought after the trip to Del Mar for the World Championships?

I am going to try to beat the Phil Bauer trainee with #4 Dapper Moon. The Louisiana-bred ran two big races to kick off his career this summer at Saratoga for trainer Dallas Stewart, including a five-length romp in his maiden braker in late August. Since returning to the Blue Grass State, the Malibu Moon colt has been up against it in both tries against graded stakes foes. First, in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) he was caught wide on a day where the rail was the clear place to be. Then, 22 days later in the Street Sense (G3) he ran well, but was in tight shortly after the first turn and moved a bit early in a race captured by a last-to-first winner. Hopefully, he can find a prominent spot early under Ricardo Santana Jr. and get a more favorable voyage in this third try against winners.

Play: #4 Dapper Moon

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-30-2024, 07:35 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#4 Black Dog	She was kind of one-paced in the turf try at Saratoga, but I'm excited to see her try to move that sort of run around two turns for the first time today. Wouldn't be my worst miss ever, but I am expecting a big one while getting Lasix today.
#10 Bee Bluff	She hasn't run a bad one yet through three starts, and it wouldn't be a shock to see her transfer that form well enough to find another competitive effort on the move to turf.
#9 Wayzata	Could be a little upside here at a decent number, as there's some obvious pedigree for her to run to after the flat debut run at Churchill. Better today with Lasix?
Race Summary	Black Dog has a lot of things working in her favor on paper, and I think she might find a decent spying trip here with some potential to grind things out from there turning for home. Wayzata has some price appeal, and I'd want to get a look at #12 Goldenageactress ahead of this one, too.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#8 You'll Be Back	Tactical type just flattened a touch late in the debut run, but there is likely some upside here today with that run under her belt and a little bit of maturity at this point in the year, and she should find a good spot from this outside draw.
#3 Awakening	Lot of things to like on paper here between her big pedigree and the top connections, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see her land this right out of the box.
#7 Casilda	Debuter goes for a top team, but the price typically reflects that in these types of races, so she's an obvious threat on the board and any other way you cut it ahead of time.
Race Summary	You'll Be Back looks like a main character in here with any reasonable upside, and I like that she has been prepping locally for this first start since June.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#7 Alla Brave	She has always been a pretty honest finisher, but she has really stepped her game up this year and shows up here in search of a fourth consecutive score. Feels like there is enough pace to give her an honest chance to roll past these late.
#1 Bosserati	Not sure committed pace is the way to win this one, but she pretty much has to go from the fence, so she has at least some chance to win this on the engine if she gets a big jump on the finishing threats after discouraging the other speed types. Wouldn't argue too hard with you.
#2 Cloudwalker	Think she's another with some chance to show up late, and I'd want her on the main plays in the multi-race wagers.
Race Summary	Really fun race here that I'm hoping bodes well for a fun stakes program throughout the season, especially after seeing another fun open company draw in the Thanksgiving on Thursday. Check scratches and make sure a good bit of this potential pace stays in, but I think Alla Brave has the right style and current hot form to score here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-30-2024, 07:36 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#6 DADDY YANKEE (5-2)	Wide trip from post 12 in first try beyond 4-1/2F, ran third off 5-month layoff.
#9 MAGICAL MONDAYS (6-1)	Rallied past ‘embattled’ leaders in turf route but couldn’t stop 5-2 firster.
#3 AMAZING BERNIE (12-1)	Useful debut, stretches out, moves outside in, use in gimmicks.
Race Summary	DADDY YANKEE ‘progressed 4-wide’ in his first start as a gelding but finished third to a pair of first-time starters. He moves from post 12 to post 4 on the class drop and switches pilots. Bet to win and place and play a 6/2, 3, 9, 11/ALL trifecta.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#12 INTREPID’S LEGACY (6	Seeks return to summer form off freshening in bid for $100,000 season.
#2 SS SINATRA (12-1)	‘Opened up’ on field mid-turn the last time he ran on dirt, price attached.
#3 DOC LINKOUS (7-2)	Has done little wrong in three starts, ran to bullet workout in latest.
Race Summary	INTREPID’S LEGACY won three consecutive 6F sprints on the front end after he was gelded in the summer, then tired in open allowance company at today’s distance. He starts fresh for a top layoff barn but has post 12 to contend with. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-12 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#9 BOUJEE BUBBLEZ (7-2)	Good try in second start under the same conditions, wears blinkers.
#1 DRINK DEEPLY (8-1)	Blew commanding lead in MSW dirt mile in five-horse field two starts back.
#4 SABRA’S SONG (6-1)	Showing promise in the morning for Salzman barn, watch odds.
Race Summary	BOUJEE BUBBLEZ ‘failed to quicken’ with the winner and held third in an improved second start. She has been working from the Laurel Park gate and adds blinkers today from the outside post. Bet to win and place and play a 1-4-9 exacta box.