Monday 12/2/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 8	2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $1 Super 5 $.50 Box
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $7,900 • Post: 9:55P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 2, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * LAND MARK DEAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CLASSIC KING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BASTIEN LE BROWN: Hors e racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. CINDY'S STORM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. KRUG: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	LAND MARK DEAL	7/2	6/1
5	CLASSIC KING	7/5	6/1
8	BASTIEN LE BROWN	15/1	6/1
3	CINDY'S STORM	8/1	10/1
4	KRUG	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CLASSIC KING	5	7/5	Stalker	84	77	56.4	68.6	65.1
4	KRUG	4	5/2	Stalker	76	77	55.8	67.2	57.7
3	CINDY'S STORM	3	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	59	79.8	57.6	48.1
8	BASTIEN LE BROWN	8	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	77	72.6	75.8	63.8
6	LAND MARK DEAL	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	82	61.0	70.2	64.7
12	REDOUTE'S LIGHT	12	12/1	Trailer	70	61	24.4	55.8	37.3
7	SKYCRAFT	7	50/1	Trailer	76	66	20.8	51.0	31.5
13	MISTER WINSTON	13	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	74	57	69.8	60.8	41.8
1	SMOKY TOPAZ	1	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	67	53.6	63.2	55.2
11	EL DUQUE	11	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	43.6	64.0	43.5
14	RY'S REVENGE	14	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	75	52.8	56.6	38.6
10	INDOCTRINATE	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	66	52.6	58.2	41.7
2	KING SOCIAL	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	63	45.0	52.8	34.8
9	BARELYSTILLCOUNTS	9	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	36.8	29.4	1.4

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 12:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 54

Rating:

#6 ONE EYED JACKIE (ML=4/1)


ONE EYED JACKIE - Trainer Coletti moves this horse down the class scale to face a weaker level today. Look for a nice race given this drop. This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's clash is a shorter distance and should enhance her chances to win. This horse ran out of the top three at Parx Racing in the last race in the slop. She should improve in this event on a fast track. Coletti adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a marked improvement. This horse earns a lot of dough per race around the track. I believe she can increase the lifetime total in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MARYVIC (ML=5/2), #5 ANGEL OF HARLEM (ML=7/2), #7 NORHO'S GAMBLE (ML=6/1),

MARYVIC - This probable favorite may be out of form without any recent workouts. ANGEL OF HARLEM - 7/2 is not offering enough value for any horse in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint race of late. NORHO'S GAMBLE - Hard to take this entrant at the odds after the result (sixth) in the last event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 ONE EYED JACKIE on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29500 Class Rating: 54

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 SILVER ABSTRACT 9/2
# 4 SWAYING LASSIE 4/1
# 9 POCKET WATCH 2/1

SILVER ABSTRACT is the strongest bet in this race. Ran a very strong last race. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is strong for this horse. SWAYING LASSIE - Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this group in her last competition. Tough to pass on this filly with Medellin in the irons. POCKET WATCH - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the recipe to a turnaround. Fincher has one of the best winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 60

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SPUNKY ONE 5/2
# 3 QUICK RENDEZVOUS 9/5
# 7 OFFICE CHATTER 12/1

SPUNKY ONE looks very good to best this field. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in recently. I like the jockey on this filly - formidable chance to win the contest. Blanche has sharp numbers that point to this filly to be a very solid contender. QUICK RENDEZVOUS - This filly looks good in here since Radosevich has a very solid win percent with horses going this distance. Will probably go to the lead and may never look back. OFFICE CHATTER - Don't let this filly slip past you. Could prove victorious at big odds. Have to bet on this filly with the strong earnings per start in dirt sprint events.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 7-8)
SO $12,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $19,500 • Post: 3:42P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,500 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS IN ONE OF THEIR LAST THREE STARTS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (THIS RACE ALSO TAKEN FOR FILLIES AND MARES). ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. CREATIVE BID is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HOLDEN THE LUTE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BUGLER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. WINTER FALCON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CR EATIVE BID: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	HOLDEN THE LUTE	4/1	5/1
3	BUGLER	8/1	6/1
1	WINTER FALCON	7/2	6/1
6	CREATIVE BID	5/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	WINTER FALCON	1	7/2	Front-runner	98	94	95.8	82.0	73.5
8	BIYOMBO	8	9/2	Front-runner	80	84	74.2	73.0	60.0
3	BUGLER	3	8/1	Stalker	95	91	81.4	85.4	80.4
5	HOLDEN THE LUTE	5	4/1	Stalker	88	95	72.1	84.7	82.7
4	INCREDIBE MO	4	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	92	72.7	78.4	66.9
2	POPS AWESOME	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	80	57.7	78.0	66.0
6	CREATIVE BID	6	5/2	Trailer	94	85	62.0	77.2	68.2
7	CORN POP	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	82	78.6	77.0	67.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 55

Rating:

#3 WILDCAT HAGRID (ML=8/1)
#6 SQUEEZETHESHARMAN (ML=4/1)
#9 IT'S LAST CALL (ML=3/1)


WILDCAT HAGRID - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Tapara gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. This gelding is in fine condition, having run a strong race on Nov 19th, finishing second. SQUEEZETHESHARMAN - Dropped down in class last out, and keeps in that lower class level today. A good sign this equine is comfortable and ready to go. IT'S LAST CALL - This horse didn't run well on a sloppy track in his last race around the track at Horseshoe Indianapolis. You probably should discount that performance. Gelding will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 S S TRACKSIDE FUN (ML=7/5),

S S TRACKSIDE FUN - Can't really be sure that the most recent speed rating of 63 is legitimate since it was acquired on a sloppy track.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 WILDCAT HAGRID to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
5	5	SPECIAL GRADUATE	3/1	Merton, Gregory - 31	460.79
7	7	BEST CHOICE	7/2	Merton, Michael - 21	455.98
2	2	PINK DELIGHT	4/1	Rawlings, Dan - 15	426.99
6	6	BRENDAS DELIGHT	5/2	Taggart, Jim Jr - 16	413.80
4	4	LADY JULIA	10/1	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 12	399.90
1	1	SUNSHINE FILLY	5/1	Aldrich, Bruce Jr - 14	387.96
3	3	STARLITSIMPLE RIG	6/1	Merton, Thomas - 10	386.23
8	8	LIZZIANA	12/1	Moeykens, Adam - 8	350.56

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Post: 8:26 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$11000 - NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $985 PER START IN 2024

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 SPARKS FLY 5/2
# 3 MISTER MAGIC 6/1
# 6 MSFRANNIE 10/1

The pick for this race is SPARKS FLY. This gelding has room to improve, especially with second time Lasix. Worth careful consideration here looking at the numbers in the TrackMaster SR department alone. The 89 average class number may give this gelding a distinct advantage in the grouping. MISTER MAGIC - Comes into this outing with nice TrackMaster class rankings in relationship to the group of animals - could be worth a shot. Certainly did like this gelding's last race. Ran a solid 72 speed fig. Major contender. MSFRANNIE - When the trainer Fellows puts Macdonald up for the drive very nice things happen. All you need to do is look at the 25 win percent. Fellows can get charges off a break to dominate as his high ROI percentage 24 shows.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 12:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$8000 - F& M - 5-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2 EXT. PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $25,000 LIFE. AE: ALL AGES - $10,000 CLM FOR N/W 5 EXT. P-M RACES OR $65,000 LIFE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 CRUNCHBERRY DE VIE 8/5
# 1 TG'S VALENTINE 5/1
# 5 KINDANOTBUTIAM 6/1

The contender this time is CRUNCHBERRY DE VIE. Has very good TrackMaster Speed Ratings and most definitely has to be considered for a wager this time. Could best this field, just look at the TrackMaster SR - 70 - from her most recent effort. Long fits this entrant's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some strong results when working with one another. TG'S VALENTINE - A nice win pct has been earned by entrants starting from the 1 post. Race players at Saratoga Harness will notice this fine animal's pace rankings are among the top in the group of animals. KINDANOTBUTIAM - The knowledge group noted a formidable performance out of this nice horse last time. Looking for a repeat effort of that to end up in the winner's circle. When the trainer Podres puts Randall up for the drive good things happen. Just check out the 26 win percent.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Yonkers Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
6	6	BLUE LOU	2/1	Bartlett, Jason - 24	550.64
2	2	FINVARRA A	7/2	Holland, Brent - 14	542.12
4	4	ODDS ON CAPITALISM	6/1	Brennan, George - 16	532.31
1	1	CARABAO A	5/2	Napolitano, Anthony - 13	530.10
5	5	WATTSUP SUNSHINE A	12/1	Kakaley, Matt - 17	526.32
3	3	OUTLAW MAN N	10/1	Gingras, Yannick - 20	518.65
8	8	FUNATTHEBEACH N	8/1	Stratton, Jordan - 12	500.90
7	7	LOU'S SWEETREVENGE	20/1	Siegelman, Austin - 9	484.24

[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#1 Bigpiclittlepic	Think he will get the run of the race here in a spot where none of them have any particularly interest in finishing their races. Something like the debut run would do the trick.
#2 Fourdatesforhoco	He is a reasonable alternative to the top choice, but I worry that he tends to go a little flat late in his races, and that could leave him underneath again.
#6 Blazing Tony	He goes for a capable team in a spot without a ton of serious depth for the level, so it wouldn't be any surprise to see him take this one right out of the box. Check him out on the tote and track.
Race Summary	Bigpiclittlepic is not going to be any kind of price, but I think his debut run would probably be good enough here on form and style. Guessing he'll kick off the card with a score.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#7 Magical Monarch	He's known to fade hard late like he did in the first local run here last month, but he looks like the controlling pace from the outside in a spot where the rest are likely to sit a bit. Could get brave at a price?
#5 Who Da Boss	He should get a perfect trip tracking the top choice early, and he looks like the clear one to beat with some reliable form and a running style that will give him the jump on some of the finishing threats.
#3 Counteveryblessing	He has pretty reliable form, and I think the jury is still out a bit on his overall talent going long -- the three route races on his page are a mixed bag, but one of those came in stakes company, so he might be an OK fit with these. Could be talked into it.
Race Summary	Magical Monarch is an all-or-nothing type, but he should be able to control the tempo today without too much trouble. While a hard fade is always an option with him, there are a couple lines on his page that show he can stay the course if the chips fall his way.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#6 Blue Nomore	Not sure he's going to post at that 8/1 ML offering, but we might get a slightly better price than the recent string of odds-on prices. Honest late runner fits well here.
#1 Bold Buckeye	Stretchout player has not done much wrong through four starts, and he's quick enough to find the front going long with this group that doesn't have a ton of other serious speed in it. One of the ones.
#5 Knock Wood	He makes a lot of sense on overall form, but there isn't a single win on his page, and it's easy to see him settling for another underneath share.
Race Summary	Blue Nomore and Bold Buckeye seem like the right pair for me in here, but the former should have his sights on the leader the entire way.

[ConleyPicks]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#2 SILVERBULLITBADGER (4-1)	Lost valuable momentum in shorter sprint, regrouped to finish third.
#3 BRANDYN (5-2)	Carried over good Albuquerque form and finished ahead of ‘Silver’ at 5-1/2F.
#1 DON JUAN BUBBA (6-1)	Earned his top speed figure in romp at Prairie Meadows six weeks ago.
Race Summary	SILVERBULLITBADGER, a 5-race winner against mostly nw/2 types, lost a couple lengths when he checked behind a stumbling rival nearing the turn. But he recovered well and finished with good energy for third, behind the front-end winner. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-3 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#6 VELLA (4-1)	Could end long winless drought with plenty of pace to rally into on the class drop.
#7 AMARETTO DI AMORE (3-1)	Reacclimated locally, use in all gimmicks on class drop.
#2 BIG BLUE NOTE (8-1)	Zipped to three wins in 13 days in Montana, has good TuP history to summon.
Race Summary	VELLA hasn’t won a race since July 2022, but she raced mostly in allowance company since then. She gets class relief and benefits from a fast pace scenario, getting the nod in this spot for a win and place bet. Also play a 2-6-7 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#6 CREATIVE BID (5-2)	Rallied to win three times the last four times Lopez rode, sits ideal trip.
#1 WINTER FALCON (7-2)	Carried speed to 7/3-2-1 record at various distances since late July.
#5 HOLDEN THE LUTE (4-1)	Classy 7-year-old failed at odds-on in latest to go 0-for-6 at 6-1/2F.
Race Summary	CREATIVE BID rallied past 2-to-5 favorite and new stablemate HOLDEN THE LUTE under the same conditions and there’s no reason to think he can’t repeat with a similar stalking trip in a speed-laden field. Bet to win and place and play a 6-ALL exacta.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Washington St +9.5 over Nevada

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U


Monday's Free Selection: Washington State/Nevada under 146